4-15-14

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XpertPicks

TUESDAY BASEBALL

• Play Texas -130 over Seattle----RISK 8% OF YOUR BANKROLL
  8:10 PM EST

Seattle has lost 86 of the last 151 games coming off a win in their last game and they have lost 97 of the last 171 games when playing in the 1^st half of the season. Seattle has lost 85 of the last 143 games when playing as an underdog of +100 to +150 and they have lost 62 of the last 113 games vs. left-handed starting pitchers.

• Play Boston -130 over Chicago White Sox----RISK 8% OF YOUR BANKROLL
  8:10 PM EST

Chicago has lost 88 of the last 147 games when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs and they have lost 57 of the last 100 games after having won two of the last three games. Chicago has lost 105 of the last 181 games coming off an UNDER the total in their last game and they have lost 53 of the last 80 games when playing as an underdog of +125 to +175.

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• Play San Francisco -110 over Los Angeles Dodgers----RISK 3% OF YOUR BANKROLL
• Play Kansas City -145 over Houston----RISK 3% OF YOUR BANKROLL

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Kevin's Pick(s):
The D'backs continued their early season struggles as they lost 7-3 to the Mets last night. They don't have a bad lineup, but until they can figure it out I am staying away from betting on them.
2 UNIT = Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros - ROYALS TO WIN (-145)
Listed Pitchers: Ventura vs Harrell
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.38 units)
The Royals enter tonight's game with a 4-7 record, and a winless 0-5 road record. The good news for them tonight is they will face a weaker Astros opponent who is 5-8 on the season (3-4 at home). Tonight's match up features Yordano Ventura for the Royals vs Lucas Harrell for the Astros. Ventura impressed in his first start of the year as he went 6 innings vs the Rays giving up just 2 hits with 6 strikeouts and 0 walks. Hitting 100 MPH on the radar gun and showing enough control not to walk a batter is impressive, and should give the worst hitting team in the Majors (so far this season) some troubles. On the other hand Lucas Harrell has pretty much started off where he left off last year. In 2012 he was 11-1 with a 3.76 ERA, but followed that up last season with a 6-17 record and 5.86 ERA. He then had a rough Spring Training where he had a 7.80 ERA with batters hitting .369 against him. So far that has carried into the regular season, as his two starts have lasted a combined 7.1 innings with an 0-2 record, 11.05 ERA, .389 OBA and 2.73 WHIP. I don't see any signs of Harrell being a big league pitcher right now, and he has had his struggles with KC in his career. In two starts he has a 5.23 ERA, .275 OBA and 1.65 WHIP vs the Royals. Note that the Astros are just 7-20 in Harrell's last 27 starts and 2-7 in his last 9 home starts. The Royals have taken 4 of their last 5 meetings with the Astros, and with Ventura on the mound tonight I expect another win from KC tonight. Laying -145 still has value in my opinion, as I figured the line to be about -180.
Kyle's Pick(s)
2 UNIT = L.A. Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants - OVER 7.5 RUNS (-110)
Listed Pitchers: Beckett vs. Lincecum
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.82 units)
Our pick gets cancelled out yesterday, as the score was 7-7 when the suspension was called. It was a back and forth affair that produced 10 home runs before they shut it down. Rodriguez' performance was certainly predicted, but Homer Bailey was a lost cause, too.
I think the total in this game is being based off past success. If we were getting 7.5 in the prime of their careers I would be jumping all over the under in this spot. However, they are both nearing the end of their careers. Both former stand outs, Josh Beckett and Tim Lincecum are shells of their former selves. Lincecum was once unhittable, but the steam is starting to come off his delivery. His ERA of 2.74 in 2011 blew up to 5.18 the next year. Last year he bounced back slightly with a 4.37 ERA, but still nothing how we once knew him. In two starts this season, Lincecum has gotten absolutely rocked. He is coming into Tuesday night with a 9.90 ERA, .356 OBP, and 1.60 WHIP. Note that in his one home start on the 9th, his ERA reached 15.75 against the Diamondbacks. He will face an even stronger test in the Dodgers tonight. A team that has scored 22 runs their last three games, including back-to-back 8 run efforts in the last two. I think Beckett is going to continue to regress this year. He sported a 5.19 ERA in only 8 starts last season because of injury. In his last healthy season with the Red Sox in 2012, Beckett produced a 5.23 ERA. Like Lincecum, he has also been getting hit hard this year so far. In his only start against the Tigers, Beckett lasted only 4 innings while giving up 4 runs. If this was 2011 we would probably have a pitchers' duel on our hands, but both are now in the twilight of their careers. Getting the OVER at 7.5 is a pretty good deal to me.
Cheers,
Kevin

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FantasySportsGametime

TUESDAY
NBA BASKETBALL

1000* Play Denver +9 over LA Clippers (NBA TOP PLAY)
10:30 PM EST

Denver has won 23 of the last 34 games when playing in the month of April and they have also won 27 of the last 44 games coming off a division game. Denver has won 49 of the last 83 games coming off a home win and they are averaging 104 points a game this season.


50* Play New York +6.5 over Brooklyn (NBA BONUS PLAY)

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XpertPicks


TUESDAY

TOP HOOPS PLAYS OF THE DAY

• Play New York +6.5 over Brooklyn (NBA)---RISK 8% OF YOUR BANKROLL
  8:00 PM EST

New York has covered the spread in 22 of the last 34 games when playing in the month of April and they have also covered the spread in 36 of the last 59 games coming off two or more OVER the totals. New York has covered the spread in 41 of the last 71 games coming off a win by ten points or more and they are averaging 100 points in division games this season.

• Play Denver +9 over Los Angeles Clippers (NBA)---RISK 3% OF YOUR BANKROLL

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BeatYourBookie

TUESDAY

NBA Basketball


10* Play New York +6.5 over Brooklyn (NBA TOP PLAY)
10* Play Denver +9 over Los Angeles Clippers (NBA TOP PLAY)

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Baseball33


USA: MLB
Chicago White Sox — Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox -1

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Sharp Sides (twitter)
1-2 yesterday

St Louis +110 LA Dodgers +100 Arz Dbacks -135
10* each

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FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball

1000* Play Detroit -140 over Cleveland (MLB TOP PLAY)

Detroit has won 104 of the last 159 games when playing as a favorite of -150 or higher and they have also won 27 of the last 46 games when playing with a day off. Detroit has won 88 of the last 154 games coming off a loss in their last game and they have won 92 of the last 150 games vs. division opponents.


1000* Play San Francisco -110 over LA Dodgers (MLB TOP PLAY)

San Francisco has won 34 of the last 61 games when playing in the month of April and they have also won 76 of the last 139 games after having won two of the last three games. San Francisco has won 97 of the last 161 games vs. division opponents and they have won 87 of the last 157 games when the line posted is between -100 to -150

50* Play Washington -170 over Miami (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Kansas City -145 over Houston (MLB BONUS PLAY)

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Intpicks

1* UNDER 9 Rangers/Mariners

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Bones Best Bet MLB

DODGERS @ GIANTS O7.5 -115 *5* BEST BET (10:15 PM ET)



These teams have played 3 games this year and there was 8, 9 and 12 runs scored. The Dodgers have went over in 6 of 8 and the Giants have went over in 9 of 10. Both pitchers have an ERA over 9.00 and a WHIP of at least 1.50. The Dodgers have 5 players with a career average over .400 against Lincecum. The Giants have 4 guys with a career average over .400 vs Beckett. The Giants are averaging 5.09 runs on the year and are 11-2 to the over, while the Dodgers are averaging 4.77 rpg are are 7-6 to the over.





NATIONALS -1 -139 *3* (7:10 PM ET)




The Nats have won 9 of the last 10 meetings against the Marlins and the Marlins have lost 8 straight overall. On April 10th the same pitchers went head to head with the Nationals won 7-1. The Nats have won 5 of Strasburgs last 6 road starts and he's won 4 in a row vs the Marlins.






BLUE JAYS ML -120 *4* (8:10 PM ET)




We give the Jays a big edge in the pitching matchup here in Morrow vs Hughes. Hughes owns a 1.6 WHIP and a 7.2 ERA through 2 starts - however Hughes has been bad most of his career, and still inexplicably gets fulltime starts. Morrow had a rough first start and a decent second start, however he has much better stuff then Hughes. Additionally the Jays offense came to life in a big way against the Orioles and we think it will transition into this series.




ASTROS TT UNDER 3.5 *1* (8:10 PM ET)

ROYALS -1 -122 *1* (8:10 PM ET)




We love this young Royals pitcher Yordano Ventura. Ventura in his first outing gave up two hits, walked none and struck out six over six innings of work against Tampa Bay but did not get a decision in a 1-0 defeat. Astros have lost 8 of 11 and are batting just .189 this is a great spot for the Royals here tonight.




ATHLETICS @ ANGELS UNDER 8.5 -120 *3* (10:05 PM ET)




The Athletics have allowed three or less runs in eight of their last 10 games, and tonight have Dan Straits on the hill, who is 1-1 on the season with a 2.77 ERA. Straily has only walked three batters and recorded 12 strikeouts in 13 innings this season. While the Angels have their early stud Garrett Richards, who is 2-0 on the season with an ERA of 0.75. Richards has 13 strikeouts and has only allowed four hits in 12 innings. Playing to a 3-2 A's victory last night we see much of the same here again.

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Sports Cash System

extra pick:

Los Angeles Angels -109 over the Oakland Athletics (Moneyline Bet) (MLB Baseball) - Game Starts at 10:05 PM EST

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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins
Time: Tuesday 04/15 7:10 PM Eastern
Pick: Miami +1.5 (-105) at Sportsbook.com

Two seasons ago, the Miami Marlins made a move to add a lot of high-priced free agents to open their new stadium. That move backfired, and last season they unloaded them all, and started to build from within. The Marlins took it on the chin last season, but have developed some good pitchers. They have gotten some experience, and they should be a lot more competitive this season. Stephen Strasburg seems to always generate an over-priced line, and he isn't exactly living up to his reputation with a 4.24 ERA on the season. Tom Koehler has actually out-pitched him in the early going, and with the Nats a couple bats short due to injuries, Miami can certainly stay in this one. Take Miami on the runline.

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SPORTS INSURANCE ADJUSTERS:

Free Play: San Diego -130

Tuesday 4/15 Service Plays


Monday was a wash as we went 2-2 for the day. Today we are passing on the NBA and have 3 plays in MLB where we are 9-2 on our last 11 plays!! Let's get the sweep we deserve tonight!!


MLB

Arizona -130


Kansas City RL -1.5 +105


Washington RL -1.5 Even

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THE REAL DEAL
Sports Picks

Founded in 2009



MLB 750* New York Yankees -194

MLB 750* Washington -170

MLB 500* San Francisco -104

MLB 500* Toronto -120

MLB 500* Kansas City -148

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BOB BALFE

HOUSTON ASTROS +135

Harrell/Ventura
The Astros might the worst franchise in baseball, but what have the Royals done this year to make themselves such a big favorite? This team can’t hit and on the road average less than 2 runs a game. I am looking at value based on past history and until the Royals prove they can hit the ball this is favorable line not only to come out a winner tonight, but with positive +135 money. Take the Astros.