4-18-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's MLB Picks

Atlanta at NY Mets

The Braves head to New York tonight to face a Mets team that is coming off a 5-2 win over the Diamondbacks and is 0-6 in Jon Niese's last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Atlanta is the pick (-120) according to Dunkel, which has the Braves favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-120). Here are all of today's picks.

FRIDAY, APRIL 18 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Simon) 15.917; Cubs (Samardzija) 14.006 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 2; 10 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-120); No Total Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-120); N/A

Game 903-904: St. Louis at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wacha) 15.661; Washington (Gonzalez) 16.746 Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 6 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-120); 7 Dunkel Pick: Washington (+100); Under

Game 905-906: Milwaukee at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Lohse) 15.653; Pittsburgh (Morton) 15.237 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-120); 7 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+100); Under

Game 907-908: Atlanta at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Harang) 16.921; NY Mets (Niese) 15.795 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-120); 7 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-120); Over

Game 909-910: Philadelphia at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Pettibone) 15.769; Colorado (Chatwood) 14.602 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 12 Vegas Line: Colorado (-140); 10 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+120); Over

Game 911-912: San Francisco at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Cain) 16.368; San Diego (Ross) 14.915 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 5 1/2 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-120); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-120); Under

Game 913-914: Arizona at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Miley) 13.026; LA Dodgers (Greinke) 15.777 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-200); 7 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-200); Under

Game 915-916: LA Angels at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 16.247; Detroit (Smyly) 14.973 Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Detroit (-135); 8 Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+115); Over

Game 917-918: Toronto at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Hutchison) 14.966; Cleveland (Masterson) 14.540 Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Cleveland (-150); 8 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+130); Over

Game 919-920: NY Yankees at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Kuroda) 16.274; Tampa Bay (Bedard) 13.243 Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 3; 7 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-120); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-120); Under

Game 921-922: Baltimore at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 16.233; Boston (Lackey) 15.112 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Boston (-135); 8 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+115); Under

Game 923-924: Chicago White Sox at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Paulino) 14.196; Texas (Perez) 15.536 Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 11 Vegas Line: Texas (-160); 10 Dunkel Pick: Texas (-160); Over

Game 925-926: Minnesota at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Nolasco) 15.891; Kansas City (Vargas) 14.862 Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 9 1/2 Vegas Line: Kansas City (-155); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+135); Over

Game 927-928: Houston at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Cosart) 13.199; Oakland (Gray) 16.718 Dunkel Line: Oakland by 3 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Oakland (-210); 7 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-210); Under

Game 929-930: Seattle at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Young) 15.133; Miami (Eovaldi) 13.617 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Miami (-115); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-105); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NHL Picks

Dallas at Anaheim

The Ducks look to follow up their Game 1 win as they take on a Dallas team that is 1-4 in its last 5 road games. Anaheim is the pick (-185) according to Dunkel, which has the Ducks favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-185). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

FRIDAY, APRIL 18 Time Posted: 8:30 a.m. EST

Game 65-66: Detroit at Boston (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 11.112; Boston 13.062 Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-200); 5 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-200); Under

Game 67-68: Montreal at Tampa Bay (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.508; Tampa Bay 11.020 Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-115); 5 Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-105); Over

Game 69-70: Dallas at Anaheim (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.253; Anaheim 12.850 Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1 1/2; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-185); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-185); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Free Play FRI Braves -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ecks and Bacon

Ben lee won in the NHL on Thursday with the Sharks -$140/Penguins.

"Mr Chalk" had Np for Thursday in MLB.

For Friday in the NHL E&B like the Bruins -$200/Red Wings.

For Friday in MLB in the American league "Mr Chalk" likes the Royals -$150/Twins.

Ben lee is 3-1 +$79 for week twenty five 97-108-5 -$1770

"Mr Chalk" is 7-6 -$44 for the 2014 MLB season

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted

[golden contender]

GC: MLB Total

Friday card has the MLB Game of the Month with a 30-1 Pitching angle and an 11-0 Blowout system, there is also a 25-3 System side , a 100% MLB Totals system that averages 13 runs and an Early Perfect system NBA playoff release + NHL Game 2 Super system side. Thursday top play go 3-0. Free MLB Total below



On Friday the Free MLB Totals Play is on the Under in the Atlanta at New York Mets game. Rotation numbers 907/908 at 7:10 eastern. This game fits a nice 82% totals system we use in game one of a series that plays to the under home certain home teams with a total that is 8 or less and are coming off a road dog win and are taking on an opponent off abroad favored loss. The Mets are home off a nice 6-3 road trip and a road win in Arizona. The Braves were favored and lost on Thursday in Philly. Atlanta has played under in 7 of 9 on the road and 9 of the last 11 as a road favorite with a total of 8 or less if they lost as a road favorite in their last game. They have Harang making his 2nd start against the Mets and he has been solid allowing just 2 runs in his last 11 innings against them. Harang has been a pleasant early surprise with 0.96 era and has allowed just a pair of earned run sin 18 innings. The Mets counter with J. Niese who has done well allowing just 2 runs in 13 home innings vs the Braves. Look for this game to stay under tonight. On Friday we have a Huge MLB Game of the Month leading the card. this game has a 30-1 Pitching angle And an 11-0 Blowout system. There is also a 25-3 Dominator system and 100% MLB Totals system that averages 13 runs per game + 100% NBA Playoff Payoff System in the Early NBA Game. We even have a Historical system in Game 2 of the NHL playoffs. Thursday top plays go 3-0, NY.Rangers, Yankees and Pirates. Message toJump on now and Roll your book like wholesale carpet tonight. For the free MLB Totals Play, take the Under in the Atlanta at NY. Mets game. GC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets

MLB | NY YANKEES at TAMPA BAY
Play On – Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (TAMPA BAY) with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities, good defensive catchers – allowing 0.5 or less SB’s/game on the season
92-64 over the last 5 seasons. ( 59.0% | 42.9 units )
2-2 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.4 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ – FoxSheets

MLB | SAN FRANCISCO at SAN DIEGO
SAN DIEGO is 20-10 (+15.7 Units) against the money line vs. an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: SAN DIEGO (3.9) , OPPONENT (3.7)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Dog Sports
Sides 17-16-0
+209

#904 Nationals +100 (.5*)
Listed Pitcher: Wacha / Gonzalez

#924 Royals RL (-1.5) +135 (.5*)
Listed Pitchers: Nolasco / Vargas

Totals 15-13-2
-521
#911/912 Over Padres 6.5 -110 (.5*)
Listed Pitchers: Cain / Ross

#915/916 Under Tigers 8.0 -125 (1*)
Listed Pitchers: Weaver / Smyly

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baseball Crusher
Boston Red Sox -130 over Baltimore Orioles
(System Record: 11-0, won last game)
Overall Record: 11-7

Hockey Crusher
Tampa Bay Lightning -110 over Montreal Canadiens
(Playoff Record: 1-1, lost last game)
(Regular Season Record: 91-4)
Overall Record: 92-74-1

Basketball Crusher
no play
(System Record: 78-8, lost last game)
Overall Record: 78-86-5

Soccer Crusher
Vila Nova + Luverdense UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 554-20, lost last game)
Overall Record: 554-475-81

Here are the rest of his baseball, hockey and basketball plays for today...


Baseball
Cleveland Indians -125 over Toronto Blue Jays
Los Angeles Angels +117 over Detroit Tigers
Chicago Cubs -104 over Cincy Reds


Hockey
Boston Bruins + Detroit Red Wings UNDER 5
Dallas Stars + Anaheim Ducks OVER 5.5
Montreal Canadiens + Tampa Bay Lightning OVER 5


Basketball
no play

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Five Hole Freddy
(2*) Nationals
(2*) Orioles
(5*) Braves

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Friday Brandon Lang


20 Dimes - LA Angels +105 visiting the Detroit Tigers, 7:05 PM EST

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ralph Esparza (VSI)


MLB BASEBALL PLAYS
6 Unit Play. #926 Take Kansas City -135 over Minnesota (8:10p.m., Friday April 18)
(Game of the Month) If any team has revenge on their minds this weekend it will be the Kansas City Royals. The Minnesota Twins swept Kansas City Royals last weekend, outscoring the Royals 21-5 in a 3-game set at Target Field. The Royals are coming off a 3-game sweep on the road against the Astros so hopefully the momentum will come home with the Royals. Royals starter Jason Vargas takes the mound tonight for KC and he is 1-0 this season with an outstanding ERA of 1.64. If he can keep the Twins batters off balance tonight we should see the Royals take Game #1 of this weekend series. Minnesota is 4-10 in their last 14 road games and the Royals are 4-1 in their last 5 home games as a favorite. Minnesota is also 2-8 in their last 10 meetings in Kansas City.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc Sports
5-unit Play Take #930 Miami Marlins (-115) over Seattle Mariners (7:10pm EST) The Seattle Mariners don't visit Miami often, but they begin a three-game series with the Marlins on Friday night. The Mariners are clearly an improved ballclub from last season. They added Robinson Cano and have several young pitchers on the rise that fans are excited about. But they are still a couple of pieces short and have some guys on the roster that are real head scratchers. One of those guys is today's starting pitcher Chris Young. The nearly 35-year old has been in and out baseball over the last few years and his stuff has diminished considerably. With all of the injuries to the Mariners rotation, they decided to take a shot on him. But they probably would have been better-served going with one of their young arms in the minors. Young throws in the mid-80's and relies heavily on good control to get his desired results. He looked decent in his first start, but don't be fooled as he was fortunate more of his batted balls didn't fall for hits. There's a reason Young has been cut by several teams over the last couple of seasons. Meanwhile, on the other side, Nate Eovaldi is coming into this own for the Miami Marlins. He had a nice breakthrough season in 2013 with a 3.39 ERA, and his stuff looks even better so far this year. In his first three starts, Eovaldi has a sensational 19-1 K/BB ratio and is doing a great job inducing ground balls. I expect him to be in the running for an All-Star nomination this season, and he should be able to dominate a weak Mariners lineup that only has one threat. Take Miami as our 5-unit Game of the Week.

3-unit Play Take #910 Colorado Rockies (-145) over Philadelphia Phillies (8:40pm EST)

3-unit Play Take #917 Toronto Blue Jays (+125) over Cleveland Indians (7:05pm EST) If you've watched either of Justin Masterson's last two starts, you couldn't help but notice that something is off. He's walked eight batters over his those two outings and has given up six runs in each without making it to through the fifth inning. Even more concerning, his velocity is down almost 4mph and that is a huge red flag. Masterson could be dealing with an injury that hasn't been made public yet, and that is enough for us to take a close look at the Jays today. Toronto is 8-8 on the season so far after getting swept in a doubleheader versus the Twins yesterday. But I think they're flying a bit under the radar in the AL East after a miserable season in 2013. Most experts picked this Jays team to win the AL East at the beginning of last season, and they have virtually the same roster in 2014 where they are now being picked for last place. Drew Hutchison pitches for them today and I like what I've seen from him so far. In three starts he's sporting a 3.68 ERA and striking out 9.2 batters per nine innings. He's also faced three of the tougher lineups in the AL in the Orioles, Yankees and Rays. Hutchison is the better pitcher right now and this price is more than generous as a result. Take Toronto.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ferringo

2-Unit Play. Take #926 Kansas City (-140) over Minnesota (8 p.m., Friday, April 18)
1-Unit Play. Take #926 Kansas City (-1.5, +145) over Minnesota (8 p.m., Friday, April 18)
2-Unit Play. Take #903 St. Louis (-105) over Washington (7 p.m., Friday, April 18)
2-Unit Play. Take #907 Atlanta (-105) over N.Y. Mets (7 p.m., Friday, April 18)
2-Unit Play. Take #910 Colorado (-145) over Philadelphia (8:40 p.m., Friday, April 18)
1-Unit Play. Take #911 San Francisco (-105) over San Diego (10 p.m., Friday, April 18)
1-Unit Play. Take #914 L.A. Dodgers (-1.5, +115) over Arizona (10 p.m., Friday, April 18)
1-Unit Play. Take #917 Toronto (+130) over Cleveland (7 p.m., Friday, April 18)
1-Unit Play. Take #919 N.Y. Yankees (-105) over Tampa Bay (7 p.m., Friday, April 18)
1-Unit Play. Take #928 Oakland (-1.5, -105) over Houston (10 p.m., Friday, April 18)
1-Unit Play. Take #929 Seattle (+110) over Miami (7 p.m., Friday, April 18)

Today's Totals
2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 8.0 L.A. Angels at Detroit (7 p.m., Friday, April 18)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 7.0 Atlanta at N.Y. Mets (7 p.m., Friday, April 18)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Essler - MLB Notes

Cubs-Reds: Don't like PM Cubs games. Chilly and wind blowing in, so we'll see where they set that total. Both pens been awful, and Chapman about ready to return, and with Simon a relief pitcher for the most part, I can see taking the Cubs at +100 (that should tell you something right there) and perhaps the over, which may be a little low BECAUSE of the wind.

Washington-St. Louis: Awful for me to think Washington would hit last night, although is was more a case of Washington's pitchers simply walking the ballpark and committing tons of errors. As I said on the podcast the other night, those things tend to be cyclical, so it's tough even to take Gio here. He was lit by the Braves, and the Nationals pen is somewhat depleted. I could make a reasonable argument for the under here, since he's done well against STL in the past.

Milwaukee-Pittsburgh: Lohse obviously was a beast last time out, and the motivation is clearly with the Pirates after being swept in Milwuakee last week. My issue with Pittsburgh lately is they are the second coming of Atlanta, scoring mainly vie the long ball. Morton being the ground ball pitcher that he is, I would argue Pirates and under.

Mets-Braves: Because the Braves are so cheap, especially with Harang in beastmode, I'd be concerned here. Mets had a day off and the Braves had an emotional three game series w/the Phillies, including a rain out. The Mets may just win this one here.

Colorado-Philadelphia: Obvious travel issue for the Phillies, who's bats have gone quiet. I am not a huge fan of Chatwood yet, because he's not a ground ball pitcher, and not in Coors Field. However, the Rockies have seen Pettibone and the weather IS conducive to hitting, so this may be the over, but I would much prefer 10 to 10.5 so we'll wait that one out. Perhaps this COULD be one of the few times I lay the -1.5.

Padres-Giants: I don't get the flip to the Padres being the listed favorite overnight, but I haven't looked deep yet. I am not a big fan of Ross, but I have long felt Cain is over rated as well, and the Padres have seen plenty of him. The Padres bats have gone quiet, and IMO if they are going to win as the early move might suggest, I would think it stays under.

Dodgers-D-Backs: As I said on the podcast, most big dogs get scalped and this is certainly no exception since Arizona had been. Since Arizona was swept by the Dodgers and then the Mets, they may be thinking that because AS just saw Zach that they make some adjustments. Here's what I think. Two of the best hitting pitchers in baseball may mean this goes over. If it goes to 6.5 I may well take my chances, but if it did I doubt it would stay there long.

Angels-Tigers: Two teams I always seem to struggle to grasp, and obvious over reaction to the Tigers bats being woken up yesterday here. My first instinct is that although I am not a huge Weaver fan, all things being equal, to get the potential of the Angels and Weaver at that price you almost have to. I do know they've struggled against LHP, but it's Drew Smyly, not Denny McLain. Both pens suck (usually) and the weather isn't THAT bad, so if that total dropped to 7.5 there's the option of the over as well.

Toronto-Cleveland: Big love for Masterson but he's not been himself this year, and that's in part due to the DH the Jays plays and lost both (thank you) yesterday. I am simply not laying the "new" price on Cleveland, and not sure I could take Toronto either. That total has plummeted all the way to 7.5 in places, and that may be an over reaction a bit. If that IS the case and the line keeps moving, I could see taking the Toronto RL, but they've got no pen left (thank you again) either.

Yankees-Rays: Automatic to think about taking the under in any Tampa Bay home game. But, I don't trust either pitcher. One is going on 100 and the other couldn't stick with the Astros. Have to think NYY has the momentum after beating the sh*t out of Price last night, and the Rays seem to be in free fall. I would hate to start fading the Rays "streak" too late, but would almost have to take NYY here.

Baltimore-Boston: Always tough to take a team in the first game back (Boston) but it is Tillman and the always unpredictable John Lackey. Since we like the Orioles much better against right handed pitching and they're on a bit of a winning streak, I can see backing the Birds here.

White Sox-Texas: So, Texas starts hitting for two games and the White Sox stop hitting for two game and all of a sudden Perez is a -160 pitcher. Not a chance. Give me the White Sox RL and be done with it, even with Chicago playing last night and traveling. However, I do think they're are far better games. And if that total really is going to stay at 10, perhaps Texas is going to hit. Hate this game.

Twins-Royals: Those that know me know I would find a way to back the Twins here. Even after the DH, they are playing well, and that may over ride anything else. Royals in a first game back and did not exactly light up the scoreboard in Houston. I can see this one staying under 8.5 in the bigger park, and if that is the case perhaps the Twins RL, again. Might find something here.

Oakland-Houston: I totally get how good Sonny Gray is and late last year he made us money. And I totally get how Houston isn't hitting. But, at -200 that's a stretch, especially in what is projected as a low scoring game and in perhaps the biggest park with the most foul territory in the world. I can make a reasonable case for this staying under, because I do like Cosart.

Miami-Seattle: Don't forget that the Mariners don't get to use the DH in this park. Eovaldi CAN be good, but he CAN be awful, and I do like the Mariners better against RHP and they've probably got the better bullpen. I don't like Young and this game has already flipped from about a coin-toss to heavy Miami. They aren't usually THAT easy, but they can be. This game, as do most IL games, needs more attention than I can give it right now.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Guaranteed picks

Yankees
Cubs
Cardinals
Padres
Diamondbacks +1.5