4-23-14

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NHL

Wednesday, April 23

Columbus got first-ever playoff win in second OT at Igloo Saturday, then had 3-1 lead in 3rd period Monday, before Penguins scored three goals in 2:13 to take back home ice advantage. Columbus lost eight of its last nine games with Pittsburgh, losing last five vs Pens at home by combined score of 21-9. Penguins are 5-5 in last ten games, 27-15 on road this season- five of last seven games went to OT or SO. Columbus is 24-18 at home, 0-4 vs Penguins.

Blues won first two games of series in OT, tying both games in last 2:00 of regulation, then got blanked here in Game 3, with Crawford stopping 34 shots, 15 in first period. St Louis is 1-16 on power play in series, Chicago 1-14; Blues are 2-7 in last nine games overall. Chicago lost six of their last nine games with Blues; they're 30-12 at home this year, 8-1 in last nine at home. St Louis is now 25-17 on road. Over is 14-6-5 in playoff games so far this month.

Ducks got blanked in Game 3, ending six-game win streak, despite 37-22 edge in shots; they allowed only five goals in first three series games, but home side won all three. Dallas won 44 of of 71 faceoffs after being 68-76 in faceoffs first two games. Ducks are 5-2 in last seven games with Dallas; Stars are 7-6 in last thirteen games overall, with eight of last ten games staying under total; Stars are 2-14 on power play in series. Home side has had edge in shots in only one of nine periods this series.

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Wednesday's NHL playoffs betting news and notes

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (+118, 5.5)

A high-octane offense has pretty much been the norm in the Steel City, although some familiar names have yet to score a goal in the series. Captain Sidney Crosby (team-leading 36 goals), Chris Kunitz (35) and Evgeni Malkin (23) have combined for eight assists, while James Neal (27 goals) has been held off the scoresheet in all three tilts. "Obviously, Sid and Geno (Malkin) and Kuni and James Neal are going to get a lot of the attention, a lot of the tougher matchups," Stempniak said. "It sort of comes down to the secondary scoring and the other players who can make a difference in the series."

Coach Todd Richards admitted that he saw the parallels between Games 1 and 3, from the frenzied atmosphere surrounding the series opener to Columbus' crowd desiring to celebrate its first postseason victory. Richards acknowledged that the Blue Jackets "got away from our game a little bit. Some of that had to do with what Pittsburgh was doing, but some of it had to do with what we were doing, too." Columbus would be wise to crack down on its penalties, as the Penguins have totaled a league-best 17 power-play opportunities.

TRENDS:

* Penguins are 6-0 in the last six meetings in Columbus.
* Penguins are 8-1 in the last nine meetings.
* Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Columbus.


Anaheim Ducks vs. Dallas Stars (-116, 5.5)

The Ducks lost more than a game Monday as Stephane Robidas suffered a fractured right leg in the opening minute of the second period and is out for the remainder of the postseason. It is the same leg the defenseman broke in November while a member of the Stars. With Robidas on the shelf, Anaheim will turn to either Luca Sbisa or Mark Fistric to fill the void in Game 4. Both have battled injuries this season as Sbisa was limited to 30 games during the regular season while Fistric hasn't played since March 15. The Ducks have gone 0-for-8 on the power play over the last two games after scoring twice on five opportunities in the series opener.

Captain Jamie Benn and Ryan Garbutt each scored his second goal of the series while Kari Lehtonen made 37 saves en route to his first win in five career playoff decisions. Brenden Dillon participated in an optional skate with his teammates Tuesday for the first time since suffering a lower-body injury on the final weekend of the season. Coach Lindy Ruff considers the defenseman "a long shot" to play on Wednesday, however. "Unless he walks in my office and demands it, which I could hope could happen, but I'm not banking on it," Ruff said.

TRENDS:

* Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Dallas.
* Home team is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Ducks are 16-36-2 in the last 54 meetings in Dallas.


St. Louis Blues vs. Chicago Blackhawks (-145, 5)

Check back later for more info.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 38-18 in the last 56 meetings.
* Blues are 7-21 in the last 28 meetings in Chicago.
* Under is 8-2 in Blackhawks' last 10 games following a win.

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MLB teams with the biggest betting home/away split

For a handful of major-league teams, game location has played a significant role in their early-season fortunes. Some clubs are off to incredible starts at home but have struggled to maintain that momentum on the road. Others have succeeded away from their own stadium but have disappointed the locals.

Here are five teams with the largest home/road splits (units in parentheses):

Milwaukee Brewers (+32 at home, +978 on road)

Bet you didn't see this coming. The Brewers have been the major leagues' road warriors, becoming the first team to win nine of its first 10 games away from home since the 1994 Atlanta Braves. The offensive numbers - Milwaukee is batting .306 with a league-best 60 runs and 15 homers in 10 road games - are too good to sustain, and Milwaukee's next seven road games are against division power St. Louis and formidable Cincinnati.

Miami Marlins (+481 at home, -631 on road)

The Marlins are doing exactly what's expected of most major league teams, triumphing in their own stadium while scuffling on the road. Miami's splits are more pronounced than the others, with a 9-4 record at Marlins Park and an 0-6 mark everywhere else. Apparently Miami's pitching staff enjoys the comforts of home, posting a 2.54 ERA in 117 innings in Miami, good for fifth-best in the league, but a 6.16 ERA outside Florida which ranks second-worst.

Los Angeles Dodgers (-142 at home, +500 on road)

Fans supporting the team with the highest payroll in the majors probably wouldn't mind seeing more victories in their home park. Los Angeles has scuffled to a 4-4 home record but has thrived away from Dodger Stadium, posting an 8-3 mark with a 2.35 ERA that ranks second in the majors. The Dodgers have a great chance to pad their home record this week, welcoming the Philadelphia Phillies for four games before facing Colorado in a three-game set.

New York Mets (-290 at home, +479 at home)

New York has brought great woe to Citi Field so far in 2014, winning just three of its first nine games there while posting a 6-3 mark on the road. The home struggles can be explained, at least in part, by an opening schedule that includes series against Washington, Philadelphia and Atlanta. Add in the fact that the Mets caught the host Arizona Diamondbacks in the throes of a terrible slump, and the early-season wins disparity makes even more sense.

Detroit Tigers (+304 at home, -173 on road)

The defending Central Division champions racked up 51 home wins last season and are well on their way to repeating the feat, winning seven of their first 10 games at Comerica Park. That hot home start has masked a sub-par road showing, with the Tigers going 2-3 - a stretch that includes two one-sided losses to lowly San Diego. Detroit has eight straight games against divisional opponents beginning Friday. It went 47-29 against the AL Central last year.

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Game of the Day: Phillies vs. Dodgers

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-170)

Cole Hamels makes his season debut Wednesday when the visiting Philadelphia Phillies aim for their fourth straight win against the Los Angeles Dodgers, who are struggling offensively after a strong start. The Phillies moved to 10-10 overall with Tuesday’s 3-2 win in 10 innings and are hoping Hamels can provide a much-needed boost to the team’s starting rotation. Hamels, who landed on the disabled list with left biceps tendinitis, pitched at least six innings in 28 of his 33 starts last season.

The Dodgers received a scare when second baseman Dee Gordon left Tuesday's game after hitting his head on Jayson Nix’s knee on a steal of third base, but he passed a concussion test and could be available Wednesday. Shortstop Hanley Ramirez is 2-for-20 since being hit on the left hand by a pitch from the Giants’ Ryan Vogelsong, but manager Don Mattingly doesn’t appear concerned. “He’s not swinging the bat like a guy whose hand is hurting,” Mattingly told reporters. “He’s just a touch off.”

TV: 10:10 p.m. ET, CSN Philadelphia, SportsNet LA

LINE HISTORY: The Dodgers open as -170 home favorites.

POWER RANKINGS: Phillies (-111), Dodgers (-190)

INJURY REPORT: SP Cole Hammels - probable Wednesday (arm).

PITCHING MATCHUP: Phillies LH Cole Hamels (2013: 8-14, 3.60 ERA) vs. Dodgers RH Zack Greinke (3-0, 2.42)

Hamels pronounced himself ready after going 0-1 with a 2.12 ERA in three rehab starts covering 17 innings with Class A Advanced Clearwater. “I was able to go down there and get everything accomplished, my strength, building up pitch count and really try to execute pitches to both side of the plate,” Hamels told mlb.com. Adrian Gonzalez is 8-for-27 with two homers against the 30-year-old, who is 3-0 with a 2.22 ERA in four career starts at Dodger Stadium.

Greinke has been a model of consistency over his first four starts, and he’s gone 10-1 with a 1.71 ERA in his last 15 starts since Aug. 5, 2013. The 30-year-old recorded eight strikeouts for the third straight start against Arizona on Friday, when he allowed one run on three hits over six innings. Marlon Byrd is 3-for-20 with seven strikeouts against Greinke, who is 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA in four career starts against the Phillies.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings.
* Phillies are 6-0 in Hamels' last six starts vs. a team with a winning record.
* Dodgers are 0-6 in their last six home games vs. a left-handed starter.
* Under is 6-1-1 in Dodgers last eight overall.

CONSENSUS: 74 percent of wagers are on the Dodgers.

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Totals 4 You NBA Selections for Wednesday, April 23rd

2014 NBA Playoffs Round 1 Triple Lock Parlay of the Year!!!!!
Charlotte/Miami under 186
Dallas/San Antonio over 198
Portland/Houston under 214 1/2

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Diamond Dog Sports
For 4/23




Sides 23-20-0
+240


3* #953 Arizona +105
Listed Pitcher: Miley / Samardzija


2.5* #971 Royals +125
Listed Pitchers: Vargas / Masterson






Totals 15-22-2
-1,884


2.5* #973/974 Over Tigers 8.5 -115
Listed Pitchers: Rienzo / Smyly


1* #977/978 Over Red Sox 8.5 -110
Listed Pitchers: Pineda / Lackey

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Totals 4 You MLB Service Selections for Wednesday, April 23rd April's NL West Daytime Dominator of the Month!!!!!
San Francisco/Colorado under 10

You Win or we'll email you Thursday's MLB Report Free of Charge!!!

MLB Best Bets
Texas/Oakland over 7 1/2
Houston/Seattle under 8
Chicago/Detroit over 8 1/2
New York/Boston under 8 1/2

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FantasySportsGametime

WEDNESDAY
NBA BASKETBALL

1000* Play Miami -10 over Charlotte (NBA TOP PLAY)
7:00 PM EST

Miami has won 56 of the last 61 games when playing as a favorite of ten points or more and they have also won 28 of the last 40 games when playing with two days of rest.Miami has won 9 of the last 10 games when playing in the 1^st round of the playoffs and they are averaging 104 points a game at home this season.

50* Play Dallas +8 over San Antonio (NBA BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Portland +6 over Houston (NBA BONUS PLAY)


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NHL HOCKEY


50* Play Columbus +110 over Pittsburgh (NHL BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Anaheim +120 over Dallas (NHL BONUS PLAY)

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FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball

1000* Play Oakland -140 over Texas (MLB TOP PLAY)

Oakland has won 96 of the last 157 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and they have also won 61 of the last 101 games when playing in the 1^st half of the season.Oakland has won 86 of the last 146 games vs. division opponents and they have won 79 of the last 120 games when playing as a favorite of -110 or higher.


1000* Play Seattle -150 over Houston (MLB TOP PLAY)

Houston has lost 105 of the last 155 games when playing as an underdog of +125 to +175 and they have lost 68 of the last 92 games when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs.Houston has lost 39 of the last 51 day games and they have lost 70 of the last 103 games after having lost eight or more of the last ten games.

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50* Play Detroit -170 over Chicago White Sox (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Tampa Bay -175 over Minnesota (MLB BONUS PLAY)

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XpertPicks

WEDNESDAY

• Play Dallas +8 over San Antonio (NBA)---RISK 10% OF YOUR BANKROLL
  8:00 PM EST

Dallas has covered the spread in 14 of the last 18 games coming off a road loss and they have also covered the spread in 18 of the last 25 games when playing as a road underdog.Dallas has covered the spread in 14 of the last 20 games coming off an UNDER the total in their last game and they have won 11 of the last 14 games when the total posted is between 190 and 199.5 points.

• Play Miami -10 over Charlotte (TOP NBA PLAY)---RISK 3% OF BANKROLL
• Play Portland +6 over Houston (TOP NBA PLAY)---RISK 3% OF BANKROLL
  
  

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NHL HOCKEY

• Play Anaheim +120 over Dallas (TOP NHL PLAY)---RISK 3% OF BANKROLL
• Play St. Louis +150 over Chicago (TOP NHL PLAY)---RISK 3% OF BANKROLL

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XpertPicks

WEDNESDAY BASEBALL

• Play Tampa Bay -175 over Minnesota----RISK 8% OF YOUR BANKROLL
  7:10 PM EST

Mike Pelfrey has lost 28 of the last 38 games when pitching as an underdog of +150 or higher and he has lost 67 of the last 117 games when the total posted is between 8.5 to 10 runs. Mike Pelfrey has lost 54 of the last 83 road games and he is 0-2 in all starts this season with an ERA of 7.98.

• Play Los Angeles Dodgers -160 over Philadelphia----RISK 8% OF YOUR BANKROLL
  10:10 PM EST

Zack Greinke has won 30 of the last 43 games when the total posted is 7 runs or less and he has won 33 of the last 45 night games. Zack Greinke has won 20 of the last 24 games when pitching as a favorite of -150 or higher and he has won 9 of the last 11 games when pitching in the month of April.

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• Play Atlanta -155 over Miami----RISK 3% OF YOUR BANKROLL
• Play New York Yankees +115 over Boston----RISK 3% OF YOUR BANKROLL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BeatYourBookie

WEDNESDAY

NBA Basketball


10* Play Miami -10 over Charlotte (NBA TOP PLAY)
10* Play Dallas +8 over San Antonio (NBA TOP PLAY)
10* Play Portland +6 over Houston (NBA TOP PLAY)


NHL Hockey


10* Play Columbus +110 over Pittsburgh (NHL TOP PLAY)
10* Play Anaheim +120 over Dallas (NHL TOP PLAY)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DOC SORTS

3-unit Play Take #951 Miami Marlins (+135) over Atlanta Braves (12:10pm EST) Certain things happen in the first few weeks of a season that are real, and certain things are just mirages. And then there is Aaron Harang. The 35-year old right-hander was nearly out of baseball after being cut by the Indians in the spring, but the Braves took a flyer on him due to a bevy of injuries that cropped up in their rotation. Had the Braves been healthy, Harang might not be on a major league roster right now. All he's done in four starts so far is go 3-1 with a 0.70 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. It doesn't get much better than that for a starting pitcher, but don't expect to see anything close to it the rest of the season. There are tons of red flags, starting with Harang's mediocre 22-12 K/BB ratio and extremely low 25% groundball rate. He's actually lucky his ERA isn't close to 5.00 with those kinds of peripherals. In fact, last season he posted a 5.40 ERA with the Mariners in pitcher-friendly Safeco. Without a doubt, Harang is much closer to the pitcher he was last season with a 5.40 ERA than the 0.70 ERA he has so far in 2014. Regression will come, and it will come crashing hard. On the other side is youngster Nathan Eovaldi for the Marlins. He had a breakthrough season in 2013 with a 3.39 ERA and he looks even better so far this year. He has improved every area of his game including his strikeout and walk rates, and looks more confident than he ever has. The Marlins have a big edge on the mound today, and this line doesn't reflect it. The Braves are certainly a better team overall, but Miami is improving and there is value to be had here.

3-unit Play Take #956 Colorado Rockies (-105) over San Francisco Giants (3:10pm EST)
3-unit Play Take #965 Los Angeles Dodgers (-160) over Philadelphia Phillies (10:10pm EST) Zack Greinke is locked in. In his first four starts, the right-hander is 3-0 with a 2.42 ERA and 1.03 WHIP to go along with a ridiculous 29-4 K/BB ratio. When Greinke is on this kind of role, it doesn't matter who he is facing. He's also the best home pitcher in baseball over his career. A quick look at his splits bear it out, as Greinke has had an ERA about a run lower at home versus away over the last three seasons. Over his last 17 home starts, the Dodgers are 14-3. The Phillies welcome back Cole Hamels to the rotation, but you'd have to expect a little bit of rust in his first outing of the season after battling a biceps injury. I'm not high at all on this Phils team overall, so the Dodgers should be able to get there behind a red hot Greinke. This price is a bit high, but there is certainly some value with the Dodgers.
4-unit Play Take #966 Oakland A's (-155) over Texas Rangers (3:35pm EST) There are a couple of strong reasons to like the Oakland A's today and it all begins with their starting pitcher. Sonny Gray is quickly emerging as an elite hurler at the young age of just 24. He was fantastic in 12 regular season games last year and dazzled the Tigers in the playoffs. Coming into 2014, I wasn't sure he'd be able to handle the lofty expectations. But I was surely wrong, as he has exceeded them. Gray is 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA and he is still learning how to pitch. His stuff is so good than he can dominate while learning on the job - something very few major league pitchers can do. Today he'll face a beat up Texas Rangers team that is without a few key pieces. Adrian Beltre is the biggest loss, as he is the heart and soul of this team and is their best player on offense and defense. They're also without Jurickson Profar and Geovony Soto, and Shin-Soo Choo is banged up (status is questionable).Texas has kept it together with a 13-8 record thus far, but the A's are rolling right now. Oakland has the best mark in the AL by a pretty wide margin and they have played well versus Texas in recent years. Take the A's behind Gray in this one.
3-unit Play Take #967 Houston Astros (+130) over Seattle Mariners (3:40pm EST) If you're putting together a list of starting pitchers to fade early on this season, Chris Young is definitely going to be near the top. Seattle added Young late in the spring due to a couple of injuries in their rotation, but it wasn't smart. Young throws in the mid-80's and doesn't even have good control. He's walked six batters over his last two outings and has only struck out two. He's managed to keep this ERA fairly low, but he's going to get torched soon and it won't take a particularly dangerous offense to do it. The Houston Astros are still the worst team in baseball, but I like what is happening there. They have some smart guys in the front office and the team is getting incrementally better with each they make. They just brought up phenom George Springer and he's already provided a nice spark. The top four of the Houston lineup is actually pretty solid, with Altuve, Fowler, Castro and Springer. It drops of precipitously after that, but the young guys are improving with every at bat and the Astros should provide some value here and there in 2014. And it looks like this game is one of them. I like what Jarred Cosart brings to the mound, and he's much better than Chris Young. This game can go either way, so we'll gladly take the big price with Houston.
4-unit Play Take #976 Tampa Bay Rays (-180) over Minnesota Twins (7:10pm EST) There's bad, there's really bad, and there's awful. And then comes Mike Pelfrey. After three starts, Pelfrey takes home the award as the worst starting pitcher in the league thus far. He comes into today with a 7.98 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in 14.2 innings, but it gets worse. Pelfrey has walked an absurd 12 batters so far while only striking out seven. He's also yielded five home runs and just looks completely lost on the mound. It's shocking that the Twins are giving him another start, but it could be his last. The Tampa Bay Rays had been struggling at the plate most of the season, but they broke out against the Yankees over the weekend in a big way. They scored 11 on Friday and 16 on Saturday to finally get things going. With the way Pelfrey is struggling right now, they could easily hit double digits once again. Jake Odorizzi goes for the Rays, but he doesn't have to pitch well to pick up a win here. If he just gets through five innings, Tampa should do the rest of the work. Take the Rays to win this one with ease.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports

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Johnny Serrone


Risk 4.00 to win 3.60 [954] Chicago Cubs -111 vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Risk 3.00 to win 3.06 [956] Colorado Rockies +102 vs San Francisco Giants
Risk 5.00 to win 4.39 [958] Pittsburgh Pirates -114 vs Cincinnati Reds
Risk 3.00 to win 4.08 [971] Kansas City Royals +136 vs Cleveland Indians
Risk 2.00 to win 2.30 [979] Los Angeles Angels +115 vs Washington Nationals
Risk 3.00 to win 2.86 [729] Dallas Mavericks +8 -105 vs San Antonio Spurs
Risk 3.00 to win 2.88 [731] Portland Trailblazers +6 -104 vs Houston Rockets

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EZWINNERS

5* Mariners -140
2* Rangers +135
2* Orioles +100
2* Royals +125
2* Twins +162
2* Angels +105
2* Phillies +150