4-24-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Game of the Day: Thunder at Grizzlies

Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies (+2, 190)

The Memphis Grizzlies swiped homecourt advantage away from Oklahoma City and attempt to take a 2-1 series lead when they host the Thunder on Wednesday in the seven-game Western Conference first-round series. The seventh-seeded Grizzlies recorded a 111-105 overtime victory in Game 2 to avoid a hole and are in a good position with the next two games being at home. Kevin Durant is averaging 34.5 points in the series for second-seeded Oklahoma City.

Durant kept the Thunder alive with a late four-point play in regulation in Game 2 as Oklahoma City eventually forced overtime before Zach Randolph scored eight of his 25 points in the extra session to help the Grizzlies prevail. Durant scored 36 points but it took him 28 field-goal attempts (making 12 shots) to get there as he was hounded throughout by Memphis defensive stalwart Tony Allen. “It is typical defense,” Durant told reporters. “They’ve been playing it all season. We got to move the ball a little bit better.” The Grizzlies scored 25 more points in Game 2 than they did in the opener.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, TNT, FSN Oklahoma (Oklahoma City), SportSouth (Memphis)

LINE HISTORY: The Grizzlies opened as 1-point home dogs and that has been bet to +2. The total opened 190 and has held firm since.

INJURY REPORT: Grizzlies - G Nick Calathes (Out, suspended), F Quincy Pondexter (Out, foot)

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Most are anticipating a strong bounce-back performance from the Thunder on Thursday, and I'm on board with that line of thinking after Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant combined to miss 33 shots in Monday's overtime loss. With that being said, the Grizzlies are an experienced, talented team, and they've proven to be a thorn in Oklahoma City's side defensively. Another physical affair is likely, so it's not surprising we're looking at another relatively low total. Look for a reasonably low-scoring, back-and-forth battle in Game 3." Covers Expert Sean Murphy.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "The Grindhouse is a very difficult place to play and the Thunder are in for a dogfight to win this series, let alone tomorrows game. I do think the number is absolutely solid, Thunder rate out as the better team and they are coming off a tough loss, they should be a slight favorite and that’s why we opened them -1.5, but since opening that number we’ve seen an influx of Thunder money so we’ve gone to 2 to help balance the books. We haven’t seen any sharp action come in on this game so at this point, I do believe our number is very, very solid and don’t see us moving off it." - Peter Childs of Sportsbook.ag

CHEERLEADER WAR:



WHY BET THE THUNDER: Oklahoma City was eliminated from last season’s playoffs by the Grizzlies and the players are very aware that they lost in both visits to Memphis. The Thunder averaged just 89 points in the two losses – played without Russell Westbrook – and know they can’t afford to lose both games this time around. “As we go out on the road, it’s a great opportunity to develop the type of composure, poise, concentration and focus that you have to have in the playoffs,” veteran guard Derek Fisher told reporters. Fisher is one of the players who needs to step up his game as he has yet to make a 3-pointer while averaging 5.5 points in the series.

WHY BET THE GRIZZLIES: Allen has averaged 34 minutes in the first two games with small forward Tayshaun Prince dealing with an illness and his defensive prowess being needed. When guarding Durant, he has been relentless with applying pressure and trying to keep the ball from getting into the hands of the Oklahoma City superstar. Allen doesn’t understand the big deal his suffocating defense received in the aftermath of Game 2. “That was just blue collar,” Allen told reporters. “I’m no star, I’m blue collar.” Allen is averaging 10.5, seven rebounds and 2.5 steals in the series.

TWEET BEAT:



TRENDS:

* Favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Grizzlies are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Thunder are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Grizzlies last five Conference Quarterfinals games.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 67 percent of wagers are on the Thunder -2. 58 percent of wagers are on Over 190.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Essler Notes

Reds-Pirates: What we do know is that Cingrani can be over valued, but he's a strikeout pitcher against a team that strikes out a lot, so we'd lean that way, although there's no line out and of course no lineups, which will be important. Crumpton pitched pretty reasonable in his late call-up last year, and has been more-or-less "servicable" in the Minors. Because the Reds haven't seen him, this could be a classic F5 U bet for me, especially if they rest starters.

Mets-Cardinals: Amazing how two years (maybe less) Lance Lynn was a betting darling, then he fell apart, he's been cheap, and now he sits at 4-0 this season. Not amazing, really, because that's how this whole betting thing goes. Bartolo post-PED's hasn't been very good for the Mets and there is literally no chance I can back him. He had his one good outing against the Braves, when he kept the ball down, but that was the team to do it against because they're free swingers. St. Louis is a bit more patient. Lynn's had two good outings in a row after two bad ones, but he's always been MUCH better at home. Looks like a 20-25 MPH cross-wind has already knocked that total down to 7. We'll wait and see. Perhaps I could be talked into the Mets RL if the price is right.

Arizona-Chicago: Well, is it time to jump back on the D-Backs at a reasonable price after their ninth inning comeback? Perhaps. The question is if Bolsinger is going to get anyone out this time around. If there was ever a team he COULD look decent against, it'd probably be the Cubs. Jackson hasn't pitched very deep in any games, and one has to wonder if he can go a fifth game without giving up a long ball. I don't think he can, and that may bring BOTH bullpens into this early. Supposed to be VERY windy and direction difficult to ascertain, but a slight helping R-L is entirely possible. The could bring this total out a 12 and it might not be enough, IMO. Either way, the Cubs cannot be -125 here, so Arizona it is, probably

San Diego-Washington: That's a little steep for Zimmerman against a very good LHP, who the Nationals often have trouble with. What I do like is the under, especially because Washington's bullpen has been lights' out lately. However (there's always a caveat) Stults DOES give up more flyball outs than I'd like, and gets away with it more in the bigger park at home. Washington's park isn't a hitters' park, but it's not Petco, either. I do like the under 7.5 a bit, and could be convinced to perhaps take the Padres RL at the right price. This game looks like 4-3 or even 3-2 to me. Zimmerman has been hittable, but he's owned the Padres and they've (right now) got the better bullpen.

Phillies-Dodgers: There's a reasonable chance I could back Kendrick here based solely of his last game in Colorado, of all places, where he induced 17 ground ball outs. Now he's got a bigger park to work with and less expectations. However, the caveat here is that several of the Dodgers own him. Haren's rounding back into SOME form, but hasn't done it long enough for ME to trust him not to give it up. Perhaps because Kendrick is a decent hitting pitcher and Haren is an excellent hitting pitcher I'd consider the over. -160 probably a little rich for my blood, so I'll wait and see if somewhere this total goes to 7. I wouldn't touch it at 7.5.

Kansas City-Cleveland: Last year the Indians were almost an automatic play-on against a LHP. This season they're already 1-6 against LHP's so we'd have to look at Chen first. Well, he's been terrible with a WHIP of 1.87 and the Indians almost to a man have hit him very well. Kluber hasn't been much better this season, and the only Royal that hits him is Moustakas. He's been awful this season, but when he hits the whole team seems to. The weather would dictate an under play here, but that'd be hard given these two, and it's now or never because there are 8.5's out there but I do think this closes at 8. I do think that's the play given perhaps a resting starter or two and two pens that have been good lately.

Detroit-White Sox: -200 seems like and awful steep price on a day game against an opponent that knows you so well. Quintana had a rough game against the Rangers last week (perhaps our last win) but otherwise has been at least respectable. Perhaps not the Q that everyone fell in love with last season, but doable given the right set of circumstances. And he's been reasonable against the Tigers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baseball Crusher
St. Louis Cardinals -126 over NY Mets
(System Record: 13-0, lost last game)
Overall Record: 13-11

Hockey Crusher
Minnesota Wild -135 over Colorado Avs
(Playoff Record: 3-2, won last game)
(Regular Season Record: 91-4)
Overall Record: 94-77-2

Basketball Crusher
Memphis Grizzlies +1.5 over OKC
(Playoff Record: 2-2, won last game)
(Regular Season Record: 78-8)
Overall Record: 80-89-5

Soccer Crusher
Newells Old Boys + Tigre OVER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 560-20, won last 6 games)
Overall Record: 560-475-81

Here are the rest of his baseball, hockey and basketball plays for today...


Baseball
Kansas City Royals +115 over Cleveland
Houston Astros +148 over Oakland
Chicago Cubs -117 over Arizona


Hockey
Detroit Red Wings +127 over Boston
Los Angeles Kings -111 over San Jose
Minnesota Wild + Colorado Avalanche UNDER 5


Basketball
Atlanta Hawks +2 over Indiana Pacers
Golden State Warriors +1.5 over LA Clippers
Atlanta Hawks + Indiana Pacers OVER 186

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fezzik
2* Golden St. +2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Lynn is 4-0, 3.42 in four starts, 2-0, 0.71 in his last two.
-- Haren is 3-0, 3.60 in four starts this season.

-- Scherzer is 1-1, 2.33 in four starts this season.
-- Hutchison is 1-1, 3.60 in four starts this season.
-- Kazmir is 3-0, 1.95 in four starts this month. Oberholzer has a 1.42 RA but no wins in his last two starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Cingrani is 1-2, 4.60 in his last three starts. Cumpton is making first start in '14; he was 2-1, 2.05 in five starts LY.
-- Colon is 0-2, 9.00 in his last two starts.
-- Jackson is 1-1, 6.61 in his last three starts. Bolsinger allowed seven runs in four IP in his first '14 start.
-- Stults is 1-2, 5.23 in four starts this season. Zimmerman is 1-1, 6.32 in his last three starts.
-- Kendrick is 0-2, 6.00 in his last three starts.

-- Kluber is 1-2, 5.79 in four starts this season. BChen is 1-1, 10.38 in his last two starts.
-- Quintana is 1-1, 5.25 in two road starts this year.
-- Nolasco is 1-2, 6.08 in four starts this season. Bedard allowed four runs in 3.2 IP in his first '14 start.
-- Norris is 0-2, 4.42 in three starts this season.
-- Sabathia is 2-2, 5.54 in four starts this season. Doubront is 1-2, 5.63 in his last three starts.


Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Cingrani 2-4; Cumpton 0-0
-- Lynn 2-4; Colon 1-4
-- Bolsinger 0-1; Jackson 1-4
-- Stults 1-4; Zimmerman 1-4
-- Kendrick 1-4; Haren 0-4

-- Chen 1-3; Kluber 2-4
-- Quintana 1-4; Scherzer 2-4
-- Nolasco 0-4; Bedard 0-1
-- Norris 1-3; Hutchison 1-4
-- Sabathia 2-4; Doubrant 1-4
-- Kazmir 0-4; Oberholzer 1-4

Totals
-- Three of last four Pirate games stayed under.
-- Under is 9-1-1 in last eleven St Louis road games.
-- Eight of last ten games at Wrigley Field went over.
-- Last five San Diego road games stayed under total. Over is 10-3-1 in last 14 Washington games.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Dodger games.

-- Six of last eight White Sox road games went over total.
-- Four of last five Kansas City games went over total.
-- Nine of last twelve Baltimore road games went over the total.
-- Ten of eleven Minnesota road games went over total.
-- Four of last six Boston games went over total.
-- Three of last four Oakland games stayed under.

Hot teams
-- Reds won three of their last four games.
-- Mets won six of their last nine games. St Louis is 7-2 in the game following a loss.
-- Braves won nine of their last twelve games.
-- Brewers won five of their last six games.
-- Phillies won three of their last four games.


-- Indians won three of their last four games. Royals won five of their last seven games.
-- Baltimore is 8-5 in its last 13 games.
-- Bronx won seven of its last ten games.
-- White Sox won three of their last four games.
-- Minnesota is 7-4 in its last eleven games.

Cold teams
-- Pittsburgh lost seven of its last nine games.
-- Arizona lost nine of its last eleven games. Cubs lost seven of last ten.
-- Padres lost six of their nine road games. Nationals are 5-8 in their last thirteen games overall.
-- Dodgers are 4-5 in their last nine games.

-- Detroit is 4-5 in its last nine home games.
-- Tampa Bay lost six of its last nine games.
-- Blue Jays are 3-4 in their last seven games.
-- Red Sox are 5-7 at home this season.
-- Astros lost eight of last ten games. Oakland lost its last three.

Umpires
-- Cin-Pitt-- Favorites won last five Ripperger games.
-- StL-NY-- Six of last eight Porter games went over.
-- Az-Chi-- Favorites won five of last six O'Nora games.
-- Phil-LA-- Road team won all four Dimuro games this year.

-- KC-Cle-- All five Gibson games stayed under the total.
-- Chi-Det-- All three Iassogna games went over the total.
-- Min-TB-- Three of four TBarrett games stayed under.
-- Blt-Tor-- Under is 3-1-1 in Winters games this season.
-- NY-Bos-- Underdogs won three of five Cuzzi games this year.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

Thunder -2
Cubs -125

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data

Free Plays Thursday

Yankees/Red Sox over 8

Indians/Royals over 8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Free Play THURS: Pacers -2

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Diamondbacks on Wednesday and likes the Diamondbacks on Thursday.

The deficit is 191 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's MLB Picks

Oakland at Houston

The A's travel to Houston tonight to face an Astros team that is 3-3 in its last 6 games as a home underdog of +125 to +150. Houston is the pick (+145) according to Dunkel, which has the Astros favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Houston (+145). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, APRIL 24 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (12:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cingrani) 15.711; Pittsburgh (Cumpton) 14.117 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 903-904: St. Louis at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lynn) 14.890; NY Mets (Colon) 15.772 Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 8 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-145); 7 Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+125); Over

Game 905-906: Arizona at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Bolsinger) 14.490; Cubs (Jackson) 13.526 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 10 Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-120); No Total Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+100); N/A

Game 907-908: San Diego at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Stults) 15.473; Washington (Zimmermann) 16.886 Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Washington (-170); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-170); Under

Game 909-910: Philadelphia at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Kendrick) 14.105; LA Dodgers (Haren) 15.649 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-190); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-190); Under

Game 911-912: Kansas City at Cleveland (12:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Chen) 15.425; Cleveland (Kluber) 14.363 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Cleveland (-130); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+110); Over

Game 913-914: Chicago White Sox at Detroit (1:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Quintana) 14.139; Detroit (Scherzer) 15.582 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Detroit (-200); 8 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-200); Under

Game 915-916: Minnesota at Tampa Bay (1:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Nolasco) 15.546; Tampa Bay (Bedard) 14.337 Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 9 1/2 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-155); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+135); Over

Game 917-918: Baltimore at Toronto (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Norris) 15.107; Toronto (Hutchison) 16.587 Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Toronto (-150); 9 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-150); Under

Game 919-920: NY Yankees at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 15.656; Boston (Doubront) 14.541 Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 9 1/2 Vegas Line: Boston (-120); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+100); Over

Game 921-922: Oakland at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Kazmir) 14.534; Houston (Oberholtzer) 15.510 Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Oakland (-165); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Houston (+145); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NBA Picks

Oklahoma City at Memphis

After dropping Game 2 in Oklahoma City, the Thunder head to Memphis (27-14 at home) tonight and come in with a 1-6 ATS record in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record. Memphis is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the Grizzlies favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+2). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

THURSDAY, APRIL 24 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 733-734: Indiana at Atlanta (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 124.204; Atlanta 119.522 Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 4 1/2; 189 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 2; 186 Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-2); Over

Game 735-736: Oklahoma City at Memphis (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 121.964; Memphis 123.895 Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 2; 186 Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 2; 190 Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+2); Under

Game 737-738: LA Clippers at Golden State (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 124.504; Golden State 125.707 Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 1; 209 Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 1 1/2; 215 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Golden State (+1 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Thursday, April 24

Pacers are now 7-10 in last 17 games, 7-25-1 against spread in last 33, as they came back from dead with 31-13 3rd quarter in Game 2, after being down four at half. Indiana is 3-3 vs Atlanta this season, 1-1 here- they lost 13 of last 15 visits to Atlanta. Hawks won seven of last ten games. Scola had 20 points in 19:00 off bench in Game 2; George shot 9-16 from floor last game, first time in 14 games he shot 50%+ from floor.

Thunder lost four of last five visits to Memphis; their bench is 10-38 in series, as Ibaka has been only scoring option after Durant/Westbrook. Griz covered twice in last seven games as an underdog. Thunder has won four of six vs Memphis this year. Grizzlies won six of last seven games; they lost Game 1 vs Thunder LY, then won series in 5- their bench made 13-23 in Game 2, after going 9-28 in Game 1.

Clippers won Game 2 by 40 after close loss in Game 1; home side won eight of last nine series games; Clippers lost their last five visits to Oakland- nine of last 11 series games went over total. LA won eight of its last 12 games, with ten of those 12 going over the total. Warriors won six of last nine games overall; under is 47-35 in their games this year, 22-17 on road. Favorites are 7-9 SU, 5-11 vs spread; over is 11-5 in NBA playoffs so far this month.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Andre Gomes
1*: Thunder/Grizzlies UNDR 190 -110
1*: Thunder (-2) -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

XpertPicks

THURSDAY

• Play Los Angeles Clippers -1.5 over Golden State (NBA)---RISK 10% OF YOUR BANKROLL
  10:30 PM EST

Los Angeles has won 19 of the last 22 games coming off a home win by twenty points or more and they have won 5 consecutive games coming off five or more OVER the totals.Los Angeles has won 25 of the last 35 games when playing in the 2^nd half of the season and they are averaging 108 points a game this season.

• Play Atlanta +2 over Indiana (TOP NBA PLAY)---RISK 3% OF BANKROLL
• Play Oklahoma City -1.5 over Memphis (TOP NBA PLAY)---RISK 3% OF BANKROLL
  
  

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NHL HOCKEY

• Play Colorado +145 over Minnesota (TOP NHL PLAY)---RISK 3% OF BANKROLL
• Play San Jose +110 over Los Angeles (TOP NHL PLAY)---RISK 3% OF BANKROLL