4-28-14

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Game of the Day: Spurs at Mavericks

San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks (+4, 203)

The NBA playoffs have yielded unexpected results so far, with the Dallas Mavericks providing a stunning scenario in a best-of-seven matchup with top-seeded San Antonio in the West. The Mavericks look to build off a dramatic Game 3 win and take a commanding 3-1 series lead when they host the Spurs in Game 4 on Monday. After snapping the Spurs' 16-game home winning streak in Game 2, Dallas got a last-second 3-pointer by Vince Carter to steal a 109-108 win in Game 3 on Saturday.

Monta Ellis scored 12 of his 29 points in the fourth quarter for the Mavericks, who also won at home against San Antonio for the first time in over two years. Ellis was part of an eighth-seeded Golden State team that knocked out No. 1 Dallas in 2007, so he understands the mentality that is necessary at this point in time. "We're not getting ahead of ourselves," he said after Saturday's victory. "We're not going to get big-headed because we've won two games."

LINE HISTORY: The Mavericks opened as 4-point home dogs. The total opened at 203.

INJURY REPORT: N/A.

WHY BET THE SPURS: San Antonio has struggled to get consistent production from the supporting cast around the star trio of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili - who have combined to average 56 points on 53.8 percent shooting in the series. Kawhi Leonard and Tiago Splitter shook off their struggles to combine for 31 points, 18 rebounds and six steals in Game 3, but fellow starter Danny Green continued to be a non-factor, making one of his five shot attempts in a rather insignificant 13 minutes. Green averaged 12.3 points on 57.1 percent shooting versus Dallas during the regular season, but has only three baskets in 59 minutes in the series.

WHY BET THE MAVERICKS: Dallas was outrebounded by San Antonio in all four regular-season meetings and again in Game 1 before winning the battle on the glass in Game 2 and holding its own in Game 3, when the Spurs had a 36-35 edge. Some of the credit for the turnaround goes to Samuel Dalembert, who grabbed 6.8 rebounds per game during the regular season but has averaged 8.3 in the series, including 10 to go along with four blocked shots on Saturday. Dalembert also went 5-for-5 from the line, including two big ones in the final minute, as Dallas bumped its free-throw percentage for the series to 83.3 percent, compared to 72.1 for San Antonio.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Dallas.
* Spurs are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Dallas.
* Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

COVERS CONSENSUS: Fifty-four percent of the wagers are on the Spurs -4.

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Monday's MLB betting cheat sheet

Here's a comprehensive look at betting notes for Monday's MLB betting action:

Wherling Darvish

The Texas Rangers enter Monday's action as a -142 favorite against the visiting Oakland Athletics - thanks in no small part to Yu Darvish. The Rangers' scheduled starter has limited opposing hitters to a .217 average and has allowed just one home run in 28 ininngs.

Wilin is able

Arizona Diamondbacks left-hander Wade Miley will face an old nemesis in Monday's series opener against visiting Colorado (+115). Rockies catcher Wilin Rosario is 8-for-16 with three doubles and a homer in his career against Miley.

Wacha's walk problem

St. Louis Cardinals hurler Michael Wacha hopes to have more success finding the strike zone in his matchup with the Milwaukee Brewers (+136). The 22-year-old struck out 10 over just four innings last time out, but also issued five free passes - two more than his first four starts combined.

Pitching notes

* Chicago Cubs right-hander Jeff Samardzija is off to a blistering start, having limited foes to two earned runs or fewer in each of his first five starts.

* Milwaukee Brewers righty Yovani Gallardo has allowed just one home run over his first 31 2/3 innings in 2014 after surrendering 18 a season ago.

Hitting notes

* San Diego Padres shortstop Everth Cabrera is hitless in 16 lifetime at-bats against San Francisco Giants right-hander Madison Bumgarner.

* Since belting a pair of home runs against the Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Wil Myers is 5-for-30 with zero RBIs and nine strikeouts.

Total streaks

Chicago White Sox (5-1 O/U): Buoyed by the amazing start to Jose Abreu's major-league career, the White Sox are scoring runs by the boatload - racking up 16 against Texas a week ago and plating nine in two of their last three games.

Injury Watch

* Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun (strained intercostal) is expected to miss the next 3-to-5 days.

* New York Yankees infielder Yangervis Solarte (sore right shoulder) is considered day-to-day.

* Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Hanley Ramirez (bruised right thumb) is hoping to return to action Tuesday.

Weather watch

* A 78 percent chance of thunderstorms is in the forecast for the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, with temperatures in the low-70s.

* St. Louis' Busch Stadium faces a 62 percent chance of thundershowers for the Cardinals' game against Milwaukee.

Hot and cold betting trends

* Brewers at Cardinals: Under is 10-1 in Milwaukee's previous 11 Monday games.

* Indians at Angels: Cleveland is 6-1 in right-hander Justin Masterson's last 11 starts against the American League West.

* Padres at Giants: Under is 11-1 in San Diego starter Tyson Ross' last 12 outings against teams with winning records.

Stat of the Day

Darvish's walks-per-9 rate dropped from 4.2 to 3.4 between his first and second major-league seasons. Through the first four starts of 2014, it's at 2.6.

** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 7:55 p.m. ET Saturday.

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Baseball Crusher
Colorado Rockies +112 over Arizona
(System Record: 16-0, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 16-12

Hockey Crusher
Columbus Blue Jackets +123 over Pittsburgh Penguins
(Playoff Record: 7-2, won last 5 games)
(Regular Season Record: 91-4)
Overall Record: 98-77-2

Basketball Crusher
Dallas Mavericks +4 over San Antonio Spurs
(Playoff Record: 5-3, lost last game)
(Regular Season Record: 78-8)
Overall Record: 83-89-5

Soccer Crusher
Pribram + SC Znojmo OVER 2
This match is happening in Czech Repub
(System Record: 562-20, won last game)
Overall Record: 562-477-81

Here are the rest of his baseball, hockey and basketball plays for today...


Baseball
Chicago White Sox +114 over Tampa Bay Rays
Cleveland Indians +113 over Los Angeles Angels
San Diego Padres +143 over SF


Hockey
Minnesota Wild -128 over Colorado
Los Angeles Kings -114 over San Jose
Minnesota Wild + Colorado Avalanche UNDER 5


Basketball
Atlanta Hawks +7 over Indiana
Charlotte Bobcats +7.5 over Miami
San Antonio Spurs + Dallas Mavericks UNDER 203

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Today's MLB Picks

Oakland at Texas

The Rangers open a big three-game set with the A's tonight and come into the contest with a 7-0 record in Yu Darvish's last 7 starts. Texas is the pick (-150) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Texas (-150). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, APRIL 28 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Samardzija) 15.227; Cincinnati (Simon) 16.119 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-160); 7 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-160); Over

Game 903-904: Milwaukee at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 16.267; St. Louis (Wacha) 15.373 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 7 1/2 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-165); 7 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+145); Over

Game 905-906: Colorado at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Morales) 15.902; Arizona (Miley) 14.690 Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Arizona (-125); 9 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+105); Under

Game 907-908: San Diego at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Ross) 14.234; San Francisco (Bumgarner) 15.775 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-155); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-155); Under

Game 909-910: Tampa Bay at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) 14.516; White Sox (Rienzo) 15.434 Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 10 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-125); 9 Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+105); Over

Game 911-912: Oakland at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Gray) 14.005; Texas (Darvish) 15.667 Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Texas (-150); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Texas (-150); Under

Game 913-914: Cleveland at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Masterson) 15.583; LA Angels (Skaggs) 14.797 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 9 Vegas Line: LA Angels (-125); 8 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+105); Over

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Today's NBA Picks

San Antonio at Dallas

The Spurs look to avoid going down 3-1 in the series and come into tonight's contest with an 8-3 ATS record in their last 11 games when playing on 1 days rest. San Antonio is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-4). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

MONDAY, APRIL 28 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 501-502: Miami at Charlotte (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami 124.326; Charlotte 118.912 Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 5 1/2; 191 Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 7 1/2; 187 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+7 1/2); Over

Game 503-504: Atlanta at Indiana (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 112.817; Indiana 128.909 Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 16; 180 Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 6 1/2; 186 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-6 1/2); Under

Game 505-506: San Antonio at Dallas (9:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 131.197; Dallas 121.657 Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 9 1/2; 198 Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 4; 203 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-4); Under

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Today's NHL Picks

San Jose at Los Angeles

The Sharks head back to LA tonight following a 3-0 loss in Game 5 and face a Kings team that is 0-5 in its last 5 games after allowing 2 goals or less in the previous game. San Jose is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Sharks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: San Jose (+100). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

MONDAY, APRIL 28 Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST

Game 67-68: Pittsburgh at Columbus (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 12.433; Columbus 10.797 Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 4 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-145); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-145); Under

Game 71-72: Colorado at Minnesota (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 11.811; Minnesota 10.951 Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-135); 5 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+115); Over

Game 73-74: San Jose at Los Angeles (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 12.102; Los Angeles 11.373 Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-120); 5 Dunkel Pick: San Jose (+100); Over

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Cappers Access

Mavericks +4
Reds(RL) -1.5(+160}

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Monday

Kings -115

Reds/Cubs under 7.5

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Free Play MON: SA Spurs -4

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Clippers (-2 1/2) on Sunday and likes the Heat on Monday.

The deficit is 305 sirignanos.

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NBA

Monday, April 28

Miami has won 18 games in row over Bobcat team that is 0-7 all-time in playoff games; Heat covered 10 of last 13 series games- they made 29 of 64 from arc first three games. Miami subs are killing Charlotte's; in first three games, Miami's subs combined to be +137; Charlotte's bench was -78. Heat was -3 with Dwyane Wade on floor in first two games, +31 when he was off floor. Under is 26-15-1 in Charlotte home games.

Dallas subs were -33 in Game 3, but Carter hit 3-ball from left corner to win game, Mavs' second straight series win after they had lost ten in a row vs Spurs. Dallas is just 5-5 in last ten home games. Spurs lost four of last five road games but are 25-17 vs spread overall on foreign soil. Spurs lost last two games, despite shooting 50%+ from floor both times. Over is 25-17 in Dallas home games this year.

Pacers are now 8-11 in last 19 games, 8-26-1 against spread in last 35, as they head back home for pivotal Game 5. Indiana is 4-4 vs Atlanta this season, 2-2 here. Hawks won eight of last twelve games. George made 10-18 from the floor in Game 4- he is Pacers' barometer. Hawks' bench was just 15-50 from floor in last two games; Indiana blocked 11 shots in Game 4- they had give guys with two blocks each.

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NHL

Monday, April 28

Penguins lead Columbus 3-2, with Blue Jackets' two wins both in OT; team that led after first period lost all five games. Pittsburgh is just 6-6 in last 12 games, but are 9-2 in last 11 series games- six of their last nine games overall went to OT, with six of last eight going over total. Columbus is 4-12 on power play in its two wins, 2-10 in losses. Blue Jackets are 25-18 in its home games this year-- all four series games went over total. Penguins are 27-16 on the road.

Home side won all five Minnesota-Colorado games; Wild had 3-2 lead in last 2:00 of Game 5, but Colorado tied game, won in OT to take 3-2 series lead. Minnesota is 29-14 at home this year; six of their last eight games went over total. Wild is 2-15 on power play in series. Home teams are 18-4 in Western Conference, with two losses in OT. Colorado is 1-18 when it has man advantage. Avalanche scored 13 goals in three series home games, only one in losing their two games here.

Kings won last two games 6-3/3-0, are back home trying to force Game 7 in Shark Tank; LA had scored 19 goals in previous eight games before winning Games 4-5. Kings are 26-17 this year at Staples Center- five of their last six games went over total. San Jose is 24-19 on road this season, over is 23-18-2 in their away games. Sharks are 4-22 on power play in series, 2-8 at Staples. Kings are 4-13, 3-9 at home. League-wide, over is 24-10-7 in playoffs so far.

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Paul Leiner

100* Hawks/Pacers Over 186.5

100* Dbacks -125

50* Angels -125

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Diamond Dog Sports


.5* Hawks +7


2* Indians +110


.5* A's / Rangers Over 7