4-28-14

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Ecks and Bacon

E&B lost both plays in soccer on Sunday with Liverpool -$150/Chelsea and a play on the draw.

E&B won in the NHL Playoffs on Sunday with the Blackhawks -$150/Blues.

"Mr Chalk" lost on Sunday in MLB with the Dodgers -$190 /Rockies.

E&B like a three team six point teaser in the NBA Playoffs for Monday.

(1) Heat from -7 to -1/Bobcats

(2) Pacers from -7 to -1/Hawks

(3) Mavricks from +4.5 to +10.5/Spurs

In the NHL Playoffs for Monday E&B like the Kings -$110/Sharks.

"Mr Chalk" has Np in MLB for Monday.

Ben lee is 105-122-5 -$2302 through Twenty Six weeks.

"Mr Chalk" is 13-11 -$253 for the 2014 MLB season

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted.

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Indian Cowboy's Picks For NBA Basketball 4/28

7-Unit Play. #504. Take Indiana Pacers -6.5 over Atlanta Hawks (Monday @ 8:05pm est).

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Cleveland Insider (15-9-2 +18.65 L6D)

NBA
5* Dallas Mavericks +4 over the San Antonio Spurs
5* Miami Heat -7.5 over the Charlotte Bobcats
5* Miami Heat ML -440 over the Charlotte Bobcats
5* San Antonio Spurs ML -200 over the Dallas Mavericks

NHL
5* LA Kings -115 over the San Jose Sharks
5* Minnesota Wild -140 over the Colorado Avalanche

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GUARANTEED SPORTS PICKS

Charlotte Bobcats

Atlanta Hawks

San Antonio Spurs ML

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SPORTS WAGERS

NBA playoffs - Game 4
CHARLOTTE +8 -107 over Miami

As a 4½-point choice in Charlotte in Game 4, the Heat easily covered that number and the books got buried in the process. It’s no secret that the Miami is Charlotte’s daddy. Miami has defeated Charlotte in 19 straight games and they have done so without breaking much of a sweat. Indeed Miami wants to win this game and save all the energy they can for the next series but this number is an absolute overreaction to Miami’s 13-point win in Game 3. Hell, back in Miami, the Heat were only a 10 and 9½ point favorite respectively in Games 1 and 2 and now they’re less than a bucket than that on the road? Either the oddsmakers made a huge mistake in setting the line in Games 1, 2 and 3 or they have inflated it here to try and attract equal action on both sides. We’re suggesting an inflated number here and that prompts us to step in. Lastly, and it may not mean anything at all but it is something to consider. Miami can’t lose this series and it sure wouldn’t hurt the teams’ bottom line to get another home game sellout and the millions of dollars in revenue that goes with it. A little incentive from owner to coach to players to make that happen is not out of the question. Everything is about money so don’t be surprised to see the ‘Cats win this one outright.

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SPORTS WAGERS

Cleveland @ L.A. ANGELS
Cleveland +112 over L.A. ANGELS

Not the best of spots for the Halos. L.A. returns home from a long, nine-game trip that ended with a Sunday night prime timer in the Bronx. The Angels went a respectable 4-5 on said trip against Detroit, Washington and the Yankees but did lose three of their last four games. Tyler Skaggs (LHP) is unbeaten on the young season, as he is 2-0 through four starts, with both of his wins being of the pure quality variety. He has been great at keeping the ball on the ground (58% groundball rate), but there are warning signs in his profile that insist on some rough outings ahead. Skaggs has just a 7/7 K/BB in his last two starts over 13 innings. His 6% swinging strike rate reveals he’s not missing a lot of bats. Skaggs has escaped plenty of jams in his four starts but that Houdini can last only so long. Skaggs went 2-3 last season with a 5.12 ERA in 39 innings for the D-Backs. He made no less than five round trips from Arizona to exotic minor league destinations. Showed flashes of brilliance, but dominant start/disaster start split highlight current feast-or-famine ways. Skaggs is still just 22, he still has a bright future, and he’s still very much a work in progress.

At the beginning of March the Indians avoided arbitration with Justin Masterson, signing him to a one-year, $9.76 million deal. Masterson posted a nice K rate gain last year but his control was still a bit high (particularly in the second half). However, he continues to keep the ball on the ground at elite levels and this year his groundball rate is soaring at 60%. Masterson finally solved his career-long struggles against LH hitting last season by posting a .248/.340/.357 line. Masterson’s dominant start/disaster start split of 79%/10% reveals just how dominant he was in 2013 and he does not look worse this season. Masterson has made five starts on the season and has yet to earn a decision. He has 30 K’s in 28 frames and an outstanding 60%/20%/20% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile. A hefty 36% hit rate and 19% hr/f have assisted in his 4.50 ERA, which is more than a run higher than his 3.27 xERA. Starters this good rarely go long stretches without a win while pitchers as average as Skaggs rarely go long stretches without a loss. This has nothing to do with the “due for a win or due for a loss” angle. Instead it has everything to do with taking back a price on the significantly superior starter.

Milwaukee @ ST. LOUIS
ST. LOUIS -1½ +149 over Milwaukee

The Brewers are good but their 90% winning mark on the road is unsustainable and the injury bug has hit them with two key members (Ryan Braun & Jean Segura) being sidelined. The Crew was shutout by Jason Hammel yesterday and they lost two of three at Miller Park earlier this year by scores of 4-1 and 6-1. In that series, Milwaukee avoided Michael Wacha but they don’t get that luxury this time around. Wacha went 4-1 with a 2.78 ERA in 65 innings for the Cardinals last season. This 2012 1st-rounder made it to majors in less than 12 months with a big splash. His 2nd half strikeout rate was backed by a big swinging strike rate, which has continued into his first five starts this year. Wacha has 35 K’s in 30 innings with an elite swinging strike rate of 14%. His 2.10 ERA is fully supported by his 2.67 XERA. Wacha is the real deal and with the only negative being a small sample size but everything points to this guy being the real deal.

Then there’s Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo owns a 1.42 ERA and 1.07 WHIP after 32 innings but those stats are a mirage. Gallardo’s 88% strand rate and 3% hr/f are the key drivers to his eye opening stats. A start versus the Cardinals is exactly what could bring him back to earth because in 17 career starts versus the Cardinals, he is 1-11 with a 6.46 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Gallardo’s xERA is closer to 4 than it is to 2. He’s an average pitcher that has been the beneficiary of throwing against some clubs that got off to a slow start at the plate. Gallardo has seen the Pirates twice and the Padres once over his last three starts. He’s simply not that good anymore and will be exposed as such much sooner than later. Risky bet spotting 1½ runs at home in a pitcher’s park but this price and pitching matchup warrants it.

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SPORTS WAGERS

NHL Playoffs - Game 6
COLUMBUS +115 over Pittsburgh

OT included. Do we really have to go over this again? Do the Penguins really deserve to be favored in Columbus just because they finished much higher in the standings? The regular season proves nothing. Just ask St. Louis, who would have much rather finished eighth and played Anaheim instead of Chicago. We could write an entire book on why the NHL regular season and playoff format is a complete farce but that’s an argument for another time. The issue at hand here is this series and while Pittsburgh has deserved every win, so, too, have the Jackets and it would be unreasonable to think the Jackets can’t win this game.

In that respect, we have to play the value. Columbus has played better at home than they have at the Igloo. They have at least a 50% chance of taking this back to Pittsburgh and a valid argument could be made that the Jackets have a better than 50% chance of winning. However, Pittsburgh is favored because the oddsmakers have all the data on which teams are taking all or the majority of the money. Pittsburgh remains a hugely popular public team and so the oddsmakers are forced to set the price accordingly. If this same Columbus team were wearing Red Wings, Bruins, Maple Leafs or Canadiens jerseys, Pittsburgh would not be favored. That once again brings us to value. Pittsburgh can no doubt win this game, only a fool would think otherwise. However, all the value remains on the home team because like we mentioned earlier, the Jackets chances of winning may be better than the favorite's chances. That’s the way we’ve played this series throughout and we’re not about to change now.


NHL Playoffs - Game 6
MINNESOTA -½ +125 over Colorado

Regulation only. We have the Wild in the series for a rather significant wager but that’s not going to deter us from coming right back on them here. You see, for almost every shift, period and game, the Wild have been the better team by a wide margin but the Avalanche have gotten every bounce in this series and it’s actually mind-boggling to see them up 3-2 in the series. In the two games in Minnesota, Colorado looked like a minor-league team compared to the Wild. Truth is, this series should be over. When you look at puck possession, time in the offensive end, defense, shots on net and scoring chances, Minnesota should have swept this series. The good news is that they are not demoralized. Adversity makes teams stronger and Minnesota has looked better with each passing game. Had it not been for two tying goals with the net empty in Games 1 and 5, this series would be over. Furthermore, it’s not a case of weak goaltending hurting Minnesota either. Darcy Kuemper is rock solid in net but again, every bounce has gone the Avs way, as Kuemper has not allowed a soft goal and nothing suggests that he will.

You can’t keep getting outplayed by such a wide margin and expect positive results. In the two games in Minnesota, the Wild outshot the Avalanche 46-22 and 32-12 respectively. Nothing is going to change here except the margin of victory for Minnesota is likely going to be by two, three or four goals. Even the outstanding goaltending of Semyon Varlamov is not going to bail the Avs out in Minnesota because the Wild are so much better and they’re hungry like wolves. Bet with confidence here because Minnesota will not be denied a chance to win this series in Colorado in Game 7.


NHL Playoffs - Game 6
LOS ANGELES -½ +153 over San Jose

Regulation only. Some teams can’t escape their ghosts. The Blue Notes were once again knocked out early in the playoffs after being the favorite to win the Cup for most of the year. Now it’s the Sharks’ turn. San Jose has been regular season giants for years but has always failed to get by a round or two in the playoffs, especially when the going got tougher. With a 3-0 series lead over the Kings and seemingly being ready to alleviate that choke label, San Jose lost Game 4 in Los Angeles to give the Kings a little life. No big deal, as it was unreasonable to expect a sweep before the series began and they would surely finish them off back at the Shark Tank in Game 5. Didn’t happen. The Kings dominated play, made the Sharks uncomfortable and instilled some doubt in both the players and Antti Niemi’s fragile mind while proving to themselves that they can defeat this team again. Now the series shifts back to L.A. and we frankly have no idea how the Sharks are going to pull this one out. San Jose is wounded, they are scared, they are getting beaten physically and they are getting worn down. Poor offensive penetration, no drive and no killer instinct whatsoever has us confidently fading them in Los Angeles. Despite being up 3-2 in the series, the Sharks are on the ropes.

At the end of the day, San Jose just does not have the playoff mentality to knock off a giant on the road (isn’t that the reason the Bruins got rid of Joe Thornton). Jonathan Quick has his confidence back while Niemi has been pulled in consecutive games. Darryl Sutter, to his credit, has stuck with Quick when other coaches would have panicked and switched. Todd McLellan is in panic mode. Yeah, the Sharks can still win this series but momentum has taken a huge shift and if San Jose does win this series, it’s not going to happen at the Staples Center. Prepare for Game 7.

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ben burns NBA

blowout alert 10* Indiana -7

Best of the best 10* Spurs -4

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James Jones

Bobcats

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Sports Investors USA:

Hawks +3.5 FH 1x


Hawks +7 1x


Bobcats/ Heat Over 93.5 FH 1x


Spurs/ Dallas over 200 1x

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Joe Gavazzi MLB for Monday

MLB

Chicago Cubs (Samardzija) at Cincinnati Reds (Simon) (-125) 7:10 ET

4% Cincinnati Reds (-125)

Samardzija is pitching solid baseball with a 1.53 ERA and 27/9 KBB. Yet, he remains winless because of only 9 total runs support. Going back to 2013 that makes 11 consecutive winless starts for Samardzija, over which time he has received an average of 2.6 run support. In 7 starts vs. the Reds, Samardzija is 0-4 with a 4.75 ERA. After all, he does pitch for the Cubs, who are 8-16 this season, 3-8 on the road, and 1-6 following a win (beat league leader Milwaukee on Sunday). The Reds have owned the Cubs over the years, with a recent series record of 25-7. Look for that to continue behind Simon who has filled in admirably for the injured Mat Latos. Simon is 3-1 with a 1.30 ERA and .172 BAA. Simon has allowed 2 or less runs in each of his 4 starts, including no earned runs in 6+ IP when defeating the Cubs 4-1 at Wrigley earlier this season. All factors point to another Cincinnati victory against hard-luck starter, Samardzija.



Milwaukee Brewers (Gallardo) at St. Louis Cardinals (Wacha) (-155) 8:15 ET

3%* St. Louis Cardinals (-155)

The public is bound to knee jerk to the 18-7 Brewers, who are 9-1 away vs. the 14-12 Cardinals. With Gallardo on the mound, it looks like a big dog winner, until you go further inside the numbers. Gallardo is off to a great start in a bounce back season. He is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA, allowing 2 or less runs in all 5 starts. But, it has been no picnic for him when pitching against these division rival Cardinals. In 10 starts against St. Louis, Gallardo is 0-8 with a 8.17 ERA. A closer inspection of the Milwaukee schedule reveals that the Brewers recent 7-3 mark has been against Pittsburgh, San Diego, and the Cubs, teams who are a combined 30-46. Today, they will be facing St. Louis without 2 of their best bats, Braun and Segora. Wacha has resumed his excellence from last season with a 2.10 ERA for the year. Even more impressive is that in his last 5 starts from this mound, Wacha has a 1.05 ERA. After 4 weeks of MLB action, there are only 2 teams, Atlanta and Milwaukee, who have a greater than .600 W/L percentage (there are only 2 teams in the previous 4 seasons combined who finished above .600). That is all about to change for Milwaukee, beginning with their visit to St. Louis early this week.



San Diego Padres (Ross) at San Francisco Giants (Bumgarner) (-155) 10:15 ET

3% San Francisco Giants (-155)

The Giants went through a pathetic offensive streak, where they scored a total of only 12 runs in 7 games. Now, however, they have won 4 consecutive contests, in no small part, because of 26 total runs. Scoring continues to remain a problem for the Padres. In 13 road games, they have scored just 30 total runs or 2.3RPG. The Padres have plated 3 or less runs in 9/11 recent games. Do not expect that to improve against the Giants, who have beaten them 19/25 times on this field or against Bumgarner. In 7 recent starts against the Padres, Bumgarner is 3-0 with a 3.11 ERA with 47Ks in 46 1/3 IP. The Giants have won the last 7 starts by Bumgarner, when he has taken this mound.



Tampa Bay Rays (Odorizzi) (-120) at Chicago White Sox (Rienzo) 8:10 ET

4% Chicago White Sox (+110)

This is a bit of a perception/reality game with these teams priced on the basis of their history, rather than their current form. In the continuation of this 4-game weekend set, the White Sox enter with a 2-1 series edge, following the 9-2 series victory on Sunday. A major reason for the White Sox improvement from their dismal season of last to 13-13 as they enter today is a greatly improved offense. Last season, CWS had the No. 28 offense in MLB. This year, behind the emergence of rookie Abreu, the White Sox have averaged 5.5 RPG. Look for that outburst to continue against Odorizzi, who for the season is 1-2 with a 6.52 ERA. That has been even worse in his last 2 starts where he is 0-2 with a 9.45 ERA. In his last 10 road starts, Odorizzi has a 5.96 ERA. Rienzo was decent in his 6-4 victory against Detroit, working 6+ IP, while allowing 4 runs. Play the momentum home dog at this value home price.



Cleveland Indians (Masterson) at the LA Angels (Skaggs) (-125) 10:05 ET

3% LA Angels (-125)

Two concerns prevent this from a higher rating. First is the Angels’ east to west flight following a late finish in Yankee Stadium, Sunday night. Secondly is a history by Masterson, which has seen him spin a 2.14 ERA in 6 recent outings vs. the Angels. But, a 4.50 YTD ERA implies that may not continue. If it does not, it would certainly not be a surprise against a red hot hitting LAA team, who in the last 5 games has clouted 8 HR to boost their MLB leading total to 36. Cleveland’s 3 game losing streak at SF resulted in just 5 runs being scored. It also dropped the Cleveland road record to 4-8. The final piece of our puzzle comes with emerging starter Skaggs, who is 2-0 for the year with a 3.21 ERA after working 7 innings and allowing just 2 ER in a 7-2 victory vs. Washington.

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NonStopSportsPicks

2.5* - 2 team 5 point teaser – Miami – 3 & Indiana – 2
Can’t do a MAX bet on this because it’s just not something we do…BUT…with Jefferson out tonight for the Bobcats and even if he plays he won’t be effective…Heat close this out. Plus, there’s NO question they want to in order to give the team some time to rest D-Wade, and some of the injured players who have nicks and scrapes. And I think….going out on a limb here…that Indiana has FINALLY figured out the Hawks. Weird when they stop the pick and roll that is basketball taught in elementary school that the Hawks aren’t as effective. Look for that tonight.

2.5* Series Bet Nets +100
Series Plays – For the first time in the series, we have VALUE on the Nets. We took the Raptors +135 at the beginning of the playoffs, now we’re going to come back and take the NETS +100 for 2.5*. They win in Toronto Wednesday & if/when they do, we will add some $$$ to the Raptors. You guys know my strategy (lock in guaranteed profit) and by taking the Nets for 2*, we can win 1.5* or lose -1.15*. When the Raptors lose, we will then look to take them + 200 or so or we will let it ride.

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SweetJones55

Spurs (1st quarter)

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KING OF THE SPREAD

Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs
Bet Over 203 Points
5.5 Units

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THE REAL DEAL
Sports Picks

NHL – 750* COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS PL+1.5

MLB – 750* SF GIANTS ML