4-29-14

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Game of the Day: Grizzlies at Thunder

Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder (-6, 186.5)

Series tied 2-2.

There was a different star on the big stage to keep Oklahoma City from falling into a big hole and the Thunder look to take a 3-2 series lead when they host the Memphis Grizzlies on Tuesday. With Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook suffering through horrific shooting performances, backup guard Reggie Jackson stepped up as the premier option with a career-best 32 points in Saturday’s overtime win. Each of the last three games has gone into overtime.

Jackson’s exploits allowed Oklahoma City to regain homecourt advantage and keep the Thunder from needing to reel off three consecutive victories. The Grizzlies blew a five-point lead late in regulation of Game 4 – Jackson scored the final five of the fourth quarter for Oklahoma City – as poor free-throw shooting (13-of-23) and lack of killer instinct came back to haunt them. Memphis guard Tony Allen has taken on the task of guarding Durant and helped hound the league’s scoring champ to 5-of-21 shooting. Westbrook struggled his way to 6-of-24 from the field and is shooting 19.4 percent from 3-point range in the series.

TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, NBATV, FSN Tennessee (Memphis), FSN Oklahoma (Oklahoma City)

LINE HISTORY: Oklahoma City opened as high as -6.5 but has been bet down half a point. The total opened 187 and early action trimmed it to 186.5.

INJURY REPORT: Memphis - N. Calathes (Out - Suspension)

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The Thunder cruised to a blowout victory in Game 1 of this series, but it's evolved into a war since. I don't think the Grizzlies will be short on confidence in Game 5, even after letting a terrific opportunity to take full control of the series slip away in overtime on Saturday night. With that being said, this is obviously the pivotal game of this series and I don't believe we're being asked to lay an unreasonable price with the Thunder, who have to realize the importance of grabbing this one before heading to Memphis for Game 6. In fact, given Oklahoma City's long-term dominance at home, I believe this line is a little short at -6. No doubt the betting majority will agree, perhaps pushing this number up closer to tipoff." - Covers Expert Sean Murphy.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Oklahoma City opened -6 and still remains at that number with us. Looks like we may have a fairly big decision on game as 77 percent of the cash on Grizzlies and 73 percent of bets backing them as well. Memphis has gone 2-0-1 ATS in last three games in series after OKC comfortably covered in Game 1." - Mike Perry, Sportsbook.ag.

ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES: Power forward Zach Randolph had his worst outing of the series with 11 points in Game 4 and is just 10-of-34 from the field over the past two games. His substandard play caused him to spend a lot of time on the bench in the second half of Saturday’s game and Memphis needs him to put on a much better display on Tuesday. Randolph is shooting just 36 percent from the field in the series despite averaging 18.3 points and he was one of the culprits of the Grizzlies’ poor free-throw shooting as he missed four of his five attempts.

ABOUT THE THUNDER: Jackson was a non-factor over the first three games when he averaged five points on 3-of-19 shooting before going 11-of-16 in Game 4. Both Durant and Westbrook recognized they were struggling and acquiesced to the third-year pro, who single-handedly prevented Oklahoma City from losing in regulation. “I was seeing it in their eyes – they wanted me to keep going,” Jackson told reporters. “I was bringing it up and they weren’t stopping me. We lean on our two stars but their shots weren’t going.”

TRENDS:

* Home team is 4-1-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
* Grizzlies are 8-3-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
* Over is 15-6 in the last 21 meetings in Oklahoma City.
* Grizzlies are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Oklahoma City.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 51 percent of bets are on Memphis +6 while 71 percent are on Over 186.5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB Weekend Series – Five Key Takeaways
By DAVID MALINSKY

It is time once again to break down the weekend MLB results from Point Blank range, examining key emerging issues that can have you a step ahead of the game in the days ahead.

St. Louis – Is this the offense that is?

It is showdown time in the NL Central when the Cardinals host the Brewers this week, and the fact that it is a #1 vs. #2 speaks volumes about the St. Louis pitching – it is not easy to open up 14-12 when the offense has scored one run or less 10 times. But while it has been an underwhelming performance by the bats, the key is to understand that it has not been that big of a crash.

The Cardinals got to the World Series last year by leading the NL in runs, quite an achievement in the first post-Pujols season. Now they are #14. But while the slash line dropping from .269/.332/.401 to .240/.308/.352 is significant, it does not explain how dramatic drop in runs has been. They led the NL in 2013 despite being #13 in HR’s, and they are #14 now, so it also has not been about power. Instead it is about just how much an outlier 2013 was in one key category that simply will not repeat.

St. Louis hit an astonishing .330 with runners in scoring position last year, far and away the best of the modern era – since 1950 no other team has been within 15 points of that. Is RISP a skill? The historical abstracts for both players and teams say no; that category tends to fall in line with overall abilities more than as a particular skill set. A team that only batted .269 overall has to hit a roulette spin for that to become .330 with RISP. And in 2013 the Cardinals were also #2 in the NL with a .314 BABIP, which has regressed to a .287 this time around. This is not an offense in a slump, but rather one that far exceeded their true abilities last year, and the current level may simply be what they are.

Royals – Yordano Ventura is a “Pitcher”

Value may be elusive quickly with Ventura – when a guy can hit 100 mph on the radar guns and begins to win games, folks take notice. But there is also some classifying work to be done, so that you can have him filed properly. While that high heat and strikeout count may create the image of a “thrower”, his dominant outing at Baltimore on Friday night was a textbook example of being a “pitcher”.

Ventura dispatched the Orioles without a run over eight frames, dueling at 14.1 PPI. That was the fifth time in seven Major League starts he has checked in at 15.8 or lower, and three of those were 14.4 or less. That is unheard of for guys with his velocity. Which tells us that it is not just about velocity. Of his 113 pitches at Baltimore, only 66 were fastballs, and for once he did not reach 100 on any of them. He does not have to - with a change-up and a curveball that check in at around 15 mph off of his top end, there is a gap that can buckle the knees of Major League batters.

Ventura has only had one bad outing so far, a game in which a patient Minnesota lineup tested his command. Which then leads to one of the more intriguing stories of this young season…

Twins – Peering beyond the patience

What the Twins did to Ventura is what they are trying to do to just about every pitcher they face – make them throw strikes to get outs. It has worked – on the heels of a horrific 66-96 campaign they begin the week at 12-11, and just one game behind in the AL Central. The catalyst for the turnaround is easy to see - after finishing a dismal #25 in runs last year, they are now #2 in the Majors in runs-per-game!

But be aware of the smoke and mirrors aspect. In 2013 the slash line read .242/.312/.380. This season it is .253/.353/.389. The average is up slightly, the slugging even less, but there is that big gap in the middle. They are leading the way in walk rate by a substantial margin, drawing a remarkable 37 percent more than the best team from the 2013 charts. Hell, only 10 players had a higher individual walk percentage in 2013 than the Twins have as a team this season. Naturally it has had a huge impact on their scoring - rating #2 in RPG is quite a feat when you are only #21 in hits.

The Twins already have five wins in games in which they had more runs than hits. Quick a feat, but can that be maintained? Can a team with such limited lumber continue to draw free passes when opposing moundsmen learn that there is little to fear? To date the draw of the pitching schedule has been most favorable (like missing Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander this weekend). And there has to be a genuine concern about Joe Mauer’s April. With only one HR in 111 plate appearances his slugging is down to .319, off of a career .465, and his strikeout rate is more than double his career average (23.4 percent, vs. 11.4). Since hitting 28 HR’s in 2009 he has only managed 34 since, and while the rest of his offensive skills were a net plus when slotted behind the plate, those power numbers put you in a hole at 1B, when compared to the production level of other teams at the position.

Last week David Price had 12 K’s vs. only one walk in a complete game win over the Twins, needing only 12.3 PPI. This offense might continue to wear down weak pitching with their patience, but could also be overmatched when stepping up in class, which can cause some problems for the oddsmakers in finding the balance point.

White Sox – John Danks and the warning signs

There might be a tendency to consider Danks an early “feel good” story. A lefty that had been having an above average career saw things fall of the rails when he was injured in 2012, working to a 5.70 ERA. Those numbers were a result of hanging on too long before having shoulder surgery, which then kept him from a Major League mound for over a full calendar year. In his return the allowance dropped to 4.75, but he was penalized with among the worst support numbers in The Show, which led to a 4-14 personal W/L tag. The White Sox only managed 63 runs across his 22 starts, remarkably never topping five in any game. And 2014 brings signs of momentum, with a 2-1/3.48 as April winds down.

If you only take a cursory look at the April numbers, you may think you see a pattern. Back-to-back seasons of major improvement, right? The old Danks is back! But when you take a deeper look, there are warning signs galore.

Danks has 18 strikeouts vs. only 17 walks, an awful ratio. To put that in perspective, his 5.2 K’s-per-9 are significantly down from a career 6.7, while his walks-per-9 are up alarmingly, from 2.9 to 4.9. Instead of that 3.48 being the barometer, attach much more weight should be attached to a 5.33 xFIP, and note where it places him – there are 111 pitchers that have thrown enough innings to classify on the seasonal tables, and Danks rates dead last. It is a classic case of ERA being an improper label, with the drop from 4.75 to 3.48 in that category over 2013 running contrary to the xFIP rise from 4.08 to 5.33 in the same time frame.

The saving grace for Danks has been the HR rate, but be careful with that. So far it has been .3 HR’s-per-9 at a 2.6 percent rate on all fly balls, but his career averages in those categories run at 1.1 and 10.6. As things warm up in the South side of Chicago, those fly balls will carry again, especially with his uninspiring velocity. You have been forewarned.

Cleveland – Searching for the pulse

The notion of “buy signals” is essential to winning at the betting windows, finding those timing sequences in which you can get ahead of the game as a team changes its direction. It makes the Indians a prime study right now, with a search for any signs of a beat from the “heart” of the order. As bad as April has been, there may have been a unique rock bottom at San Francisco over the weekend.

Carlos Santana has had an awful time at the plate, and some of that can be genuinely attributed to having to switch to 3B. But there was no way to anticipate .268/.377/.455 turning into .122/.301/.195. Jason Kipnis can be one of the best offensive 2B in the Majors, but his .284/.366/.452 of 2013 has opened at .247/.364/.416. Nick Swisher has fallen from .246/.341/.423 to .218/.292/.337. For Asdrubal Cabrera the decline is from .242/.299/.402 to .211/.290/.333.

So how bad was the weekend by the Bay? The #3 through #6 spots in the batting order chimed in with a woeful 3-40. Not surprisingly, it was an 0-3 collar vs. the Giants. But here is the gist going forward – despite those horrendous offensive performances, Cleveland is 11-14, and only three games back in the AL Central. And there really is a silver lining behind the hitters – while the team average has fallen from .255 to .237, and slugging from .410 to .362, the on-base has only dropped from .327 to .319. The Tribe rated #4 in the Majors in walk rate in 2013. 2014? How about #4 again. The patience is there, and their contact rate is actually improved (from #23 in K rate to #8). They are putting the ball in play, but the geometry of baseball has not been kind (#26 in BABIP at .278). This is an offense that will perform much better than this dismal April as the season progresses, and is worth close scrutiny for signs of a turnaround. It will be difficult for the key heart of the batting order to have a series worse than the one that they just had.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Niese is 1-1, 2.25 in his last three starts. Hamels allowed two runs in six IP in his first '14 start.
-- Wood is 2-3, 1.54 in five starts this season. Fernandez is 1-0, 1.80 in his last couple starts.
-- Samardzija has a 2.04 RA in five starts, but no wins. Simon is 3-1, 1.63 in his four starts this month.
-- Lohse is 4-0, 3.00 in his last four starts. Lynn is 2-1, 1.80 in his last three.
-- Stults is 1-0, 2.38 in his last couple starts.


-- Sabathia is 2-0, 2.77 in his last two starts.
-- Verlander is 3-0, 3.32 in his last three starts.
-- Perez hasn't allowed a run in his last 26 innings (4-0, 1.11 in last four starts). Oakland is 5-0 when Kazmir starts (3-0, 1.87).
-- Vargas is 2-0, 1.80 in five starts this season.
-- Weaver is 1-0, 1.50 in his last couple starts. Kluber is 2-1, 3.71 in his last four starts.

-- Tillman is 3-1, 3.94 in four starts this season.
-- GGonzalez is 3-1, 3.00 in five starts this season.
-- Greinke is 4-0, 2.45 in five starts this season. Gibson is 2-0, 0.63 in his two home starts this month.

Cold pitchers
-- Bolsinger is 1-1, 6.75 in two starts this season. Chatwood has a 4.74 RA in three starts.
-- Cain is 0-3, 4.94 in five starts this season.

-- Young is 0-0, 3.94 in three starts this season.
-- Lackey is 1-2, 6.16 in his last three starts. Bedard is 0-1, 9.39 in two starts.
-- Quintana is 1-2, 6.16 in his last three starts.
-- McGowan is 1-3, 6.88 in four starts this season.

-- Morton is 0-3, 6.16 in his last three starts.
-- Cosart is 0-1, 7.71 in his last three starts.


Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Niese 2-4; Hamels 0-1
-- Wood 3-5; Fernandez 1-5
-- Samardzija 1-5; Simon 1-4
-- Lohse 3-5; Lynn 2-5
-- Chatwood 0-3; Bolsinger 1-2
-- Stults 1-5; Cain 3-5

-- Young 1-3; Sabathia 2-5
-- Bedard 1-2; Lackey 2-5
-- Kazmir 1-5; Perez 0-5
-- Verlander 2-5; Quintana 1-5
-- McGowan 3-4; Vargas 0-5
-- Kluber 2-5; Weaver 1-5

-- Morton 0-5; Tillman 0-5
-- Gonzalez 2-5; Cosart 3-5
-- Greinke 0-5; Gibson 2-4

Totals
-- Over is 5-1-1 in Mets' last seven road games.
-- Four of five Wood starts stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Cub road games stayed under.
-- Seven of last eight Milwaukee road games went over.
-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Arizona home games.
-- Eight of last ten San Diego road games stayed under.

-- Seven of last nine Bronx home games stayed under.
-- Seven of last ten Boston games went over the total.
-- Six of last seven White Sox games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Oakland road games went over total.
-- Six of last seven Toronto games went over the total.
-- Eight of nine Angel home games went over the total.

-- Five of last six Pittsburgh games stayed under.
-- Last seven Washington road games went over.
-- Six of last seven Minnesota games went over.

Hot teams
-- Mets/Phillies both won six of their last eight games.
-- Braves won 12 of their last 15 games.
-- Brewers won eight of last ten games. St Louis won four of last six at home.
-- Rockies won nine of their last thirteen games.
-- Giants won four of last five games; San Diego won six of its last nine on the road. .

-- Bronx won six of its last seven home games.
-- Texas won seven of its last nine home games.
-- White Sox won six of last nine home games.
-- Kansas City won six of its nine home games.
-- Angels won three of their last four home games.

-- Orioles are 7-1 in game following their last eight losses.
-- Washington is 6-1 in game after its last seven losses.
-- Minnesota won six of its last eight home games.

Cold teams
-- Marlins lost five of last six games, but are 8-4 at home.
-- Cincinnati lost its last three games, scoring five runs. Cubs lost six of their last seven road games.
-- Arizona lost 11 of its last 12 home games.

-- Mariners lost their last six away games.
-- Tampa Bay lost six of its last seven away games. Boston is 2-6 in first game of a series.
-- Detroit lost five of last six series openers.
-- Oakland lost five of its last eight games.
-- Blue Jays lost four of their last five games.
-- Cleveland lost its last five road games.

-- Pirates lost five of their last six games.
-- Astros lost six of their last eight home games.
-- Dodgers lost five of their last seven games.

Umpires
-- Mil-StL-- Four of last five Reyburn games stayed under.
-- Col-Az-- Five of last six Demuth games stayed under.
-- SD-SF-- All three Hernandez games went over total.

-- A's-Tex-- All three Pattillo games stayed under total.
-- Cle-LAA-- Home team won ten of last thirteen Rackley games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

Bulls -4.5
A's -105
Orioles (RL) -1.5(+157)

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Tuesday

Red Sox -158

Brewers/Cards over 7

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Free Play TUES Tigers -145

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Heat (-7) on Monday and likes the NHL Rangers on Tuesday.

The deficit is 255 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fezzik
507 WAS / 508 CHI UNDER 183.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Tuesday, April 29

Washington won seven of last eight games overall, with last six going over total, but they haven't won playoff series since '05; can they take care of business and eliminate Bulls here? Chicago lost five of last seven games, with six of last seven going over. All four series have gone over total; Bulls lost previous two games here, by 9-2 points. Wizard bench is just 8-24 from floor last two games; win here gives starters little rest.

Last three Griz-Thunder games went OT, after OC won opener by 14; despite OTs, team that led at halftime won all four series games. Both Thunder wins stayed under total; both Memphis wins went over. OC is 22-86 from arc in last three games, shooting under 40% from floor in all three games- five of their last eight games went over. Griz outscored OC 28-16 in 4th quarter to force OT, after blowing 5-point lead in last 1:20.

Numbers don't really matter in Warrior-Clipper series, which became a media circus with off-court issues dominating. Do Clippers want to be playing anymore? They didn't practice Monday. NBA will probably ban Sterling indefinitely this afternoon, in which case this becomes total crapshoot. LA won nine of its last 14 games, with 11 of those 14 going over the total. Warriors won seven of last eleven games overall; under is 48-36 in their games this year, 25-18 on road. If somehow NBA doesn't ban Sterling this afternoon, Clippers aren't going to win.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Tuesday, April 29

Rangers outshot Philly 58-40 in first period in this series; they're 27-16 on road this season, with three of last four on road staying under total. Flyers lost seven of nine games vs Rangers this year; over is 2-1-1 in this series. Rangers are 3-23 on power play in series, 0-8 on road; Philly is 4-16 on power play, 1-7 here. Under is 6-2-3 in last 11 Ranger games, 1-9-2 in last twelve Philly games. There is urgency for Rangers to clinch here, since Game 7 would be on Wednesday, and Penguins have already clinched, so they're home resting awaiting winner of this series. But Flyers are playing to keep their season alive. League-wide, over is 26-10-8 in playoffs so far.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Art Aronson




Tuesday Apr 29, 05:05 PM
(507) Washington Wizards
(508) Chicago Bulls
Pick
Over


Analysis
This is a 10* “EAST-CONF TOTAL OF THE MONTH” on the “over” between the Washington Wizards and the Chicago Bulls. All four of these opening round Eastern Conference games have gone “over” the number, and I believe we’ll once again see a higher-scoring affair as the home side abandons its trade-mark suffocating style of defensive play for a more aggressive offensive attack as it looks to stave off elimination. Normally I love going against lop-sided numbers and trends, but in this case, I simply feel the situation lends itself to more of a shootout. The Bulls are on the brink, they need to be the aggressors, push the pace of this game from the opening tip until the final horn. That said, the Wizards are looking to advance deeper in the playoffs for the first time in a long time. "I want our guys desperate," Wizards coach Randy Wittman said. "I don't care about Chicago. I want us to be greedy tomorrow." Chicago has had no answer for John Wall or Bradley Beal; and now to make matters worse for the home side, Trevor Ariza has started to up his game, he’s coming off a career playoff-high 30 points in Game 4. The Bulls know they need to hit the ground running today, the Wizards have grabbed early leads in each of the first three games. A big boost for Chicago fans is the expected presence of Mike Dunleavy Jr. who missed practice Monday after bruising his left thumb in Game 4. If Chicago was up 3-1, and all four games had gone “over” the number at this point of the series, I would absolutely be all over the “under”. However, because the normally defensive minded Bulls are playing for their lives today, I look for this total to once again eclipse the number as the game comes down the stretch. Play on the “over”. AAA Sports

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BigKatSports
MLB Total of the Day!!
Game
Tuesday Apr 29, 04:05 PM
(951) New York Mets
(952) Philadelphia Phillies
Pick
Over
2 Unit Play. Take #951/952 New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Over 7 -120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Clement

7 Units Indians / Angels Under 7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Dog Sports
MLB
Sides 28-24-0
+560
#957 Brewers +145. (1*)
Listed Pitcher: Lohse / Lynn

#967 Rangers -110. (1*)
Listed Pitcher: Kazmir / Perez

Totals 21-26-2
-925
#963/964 Over Yankees 8.0 +100 (1.5*)
Listed Pitcher: Young / Sabathia

#973/974 Over Angels 7.5 -120 (.5*)
Listed Pitcher: Kluber / Weaver

NBA
#507/508. Over Bulls 183.5 -105 (4*)