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Game of the Day: Rockets at Trail Blazers
Houston Rockets at Portland Trail Blazers (-3.5, 213.5)
Portland leads series 3-2.
The Houston Rockets staved off elimination and attempt to even the Western Conference first-round series at 3-3 when they visit the Portland Trail Blazers on Friday. The Rockets thrived with their season on the line in Game 5 and avoided the late-game breakdowns that hurt them earlier in the series while posting a 108-98 victory on Wednesday. Now the Trail Blazers feel the urgency to wrap up the series at home to keep from having to travel back to Houston for a Game 7.
The Rockets held Portland star LaMarcus Aldridge to eight points while being highly intent on keeping their season going. “I don’t want to go on vacation,” Houston center Dwight Howard told reporters after Game 5. “I want to win. I want to give everything I’ve got. Every night, put my heart into it and sacrifice my body and do whatever I can to help this team win.” The Trail Blazers are trying to halt a streak of six straight first-round exits that dates back to 2000. “We’ve been good at home all year and now we’ll go back home and take care of business,” Aldridge told reporters.
TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN, CSN Houston, KGW (Portland)
LINE HISTORY: The line opened at Portland -3.5 with a total of 213, but the total quickly moved half a point to 213.5.
INJURY REPORT: N/A
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "The Blazers are 3.5-point favorites in Game 6 - a close-out game for them, and in my opinion a must-win game as I do not see them winning Game 7 in Houston. So far we are seeing over 60 percent of the action come in on the Rockets to cover the spread and 51 percent of the action on them to win outright." - Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Houston finally slowed down LaMarcus Aldridge in Game 5 as he scored just 8 points on 3 of 12 shooting from the field. But in a critical Game 6 at home, Aldridge will likely bounce back with a strong performance, and if he does, the Rockets will have their work cut out for them in Game 6 in Portland." - Covers' Experts Steve Merril
WHY BET THE ROCKETS: Starting point guard Patrick Beverley was limited in Game 5 due to an illness and Jeremy Lin stepped up to have his best performance of the series. Lin had 21 points on 9-of-15 shooting as he rebounded from a poor Game 4 performance that included a costly turnover late in regulation. “I just tried to be aggressive,” Lin told reporters. “I felt like I needed to be more of a spark for the team. I hadn’t done a great job of that in this series so I just tried to come out as aggressive as I can be.” Howard has been Houston’s best player of the series, posting five straight double-doubles while averaging 26 points, 14.2 rebounds and three blocks.
WHY BET THE TRAIL BLAZERS: Aldridge averaged 35.3 points over the first four games – including outings of 46 and 43 points to begin the series – before being a complete nonfactor in Game 5. Houston’s lineup switch to Omer Asik from Terrence Jones has allowed Howard to guard Aldridge more often and the results were even better than what Houston expected. Aldridge, who was 3-of-12 shooting, bristled over the notion that Howard silenced him. “The ball didn’t come to me as much,” Aldridge told reporters. “Our guys were making shots and we were playing off them and that’s how the game went. It wasn’t about how Dwight guarded me or anything like that.”
TRENDS:
* Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings in Portland.
* Rockets are 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in Portland.
* Over is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings.
* Rockets are 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.
COVERS CONSENSUS: 54 percent of bets are on Portland -3.5 while 67 percent are on Over 213.5 -
Three big betting trends for the second round of the NHL playoffs
With the pool of 16 postseason teams now whittled down to eight, bettors will be looking for any trend they can take advantage of heading into the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs.
Taking a look at some of the recent second-round results, here are some patterns that have emerged as we prepare to kick off the round of eight:
Under Takes Over
Most fans will acknowledge that goal scoring generally begins to dry up as the Stanley Cup tournament reaches the second round, and totals are often adjusted to reflect the increased reliance on defense and aversion to risk-taking. Yet, aside from a bizarre stretch during the 2011 Stanley Cup playoffs, Under bettors have reaped the benefits in the round of eight. The 2011 second round finished 11-9-1 O/U, thanks in large part to a 9-0-1 outlier from May 3-8. But 2012 saw that number drop to 7-11-3 O/U. The Under trend was even more pronounced last season, as teams went 7-13-4 O/U in Round 2.
Home Ownership
Betting on home favorites in the Stanley Cup playoffs is often a risky proposition. They usually don't pay out well and with the league trending toward greater parity, it's a major gamble. Despite the perceived increase in balance between teams, second-round home faves have steadily become more dominant over the years. Home favorites have improved from a modest 9-8 record in 2011 to an 11-7 mark in 2012 and an eye-popping 17-2 last season. It will be interesting to see if this particular trend continues into 2014, or if last year was an exception.
Penalty Killing the Key
While the number of power plays per game doesn't drop significantly from Rounds 1 to 2, what teams do with their opportunities plays a major role in whether they advance to the conference finals. Over the past three postseasons, no team has reached the third round of the Stanley Cup playoffs with less than an 84.2-percent penalty-killing success rate in Round 2. Furthermore, the combined penalty-kill percentage of all 12 second-round teams to reach the conference finals in the past three years - 88.3 percent - would have ranked first in the NHL during the 2013-14 regular season.Comment
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GC: NHL Totals Play
Friday Card has 3 Big 5* NBA Playoff Power system plays, two have perfect indicators and one is at 93% long term. MLB 80% DOG system leads the big Bases card that also has a 91% totals system that average over 11 runs per game. NBA + MLB Top plays cash on Pacers and Marlins. Free NHL Totals Play below.
On Friday the free NHL Totals Play is on the Over in the NY .Rangers at Pittsburgh Penguins game. Rotation numbers 3/4 at 7:05 eastern. These two teams have played over in all meetings this season with every game accumulating at least 6 goals. Both teams play a fast paced style and move the puck from end to end very quickly and both create several scoring chances. The Pens are the #4 scoring team in the league and #2 on the Power play. They have flown over in 6 of the last 8 with 3 or more days rest , 14 of 21 of late vs winning teams and both times this season when the posted total was 5 in their home games. The Rangers are off a big defensive game 7 effort holding Philly to 1 goal. Teams who are off game 7 wins be it at home or away have not been able to produce the same intensity on the defensive end. The Rangers will be able to score on a Penguins team that is average defensively. Look for this game to go over the total tonight. On Friday start the weekend big With a Powerful NBA Lineup that has 3 big 5* Systems, 2 are perfect one is 93% all with long term time tested playoff indicators. In Bases we have an 80% MLB Dog with bite that wins outright and a totals system that is cashing over 90% and averages over 11 runs per game. Top plays cashed with Pacers and Marlins. Jump on this Big Bases and Buckets card now as we Get the month of May off to a fast start. For the free play take the over 5 goals in the NY Rangers and Pittsburgh Penguins game. GCComment
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MLB
Hot pitchers
-- Wainwright is 4-0, 1.24 in his last four starts; he's thrown 25 consecutive scoreless innings.
-- Lee is 2-2, 2.25 in his last five starts. Strasburg is 1-0, 1.38 in his last couple starts.
-- Peralta is 3-1, 3.04 in his last four starts.
-- Beckett is 0-0, 1.00 in his last three starts. Koehler is 2-2, 2.97 in five starts this season.
-- Wheeler is 1-0, 2.95 in his last three starts. de la Rosa is 2-0, 1.50 in his last two starts.
-- Cashner is 2-0, 1.21 in three home starts.
-- Danks is 2-1, 3.38 in his last four starts.
-- Shields is 3-0, 2.14 in his last three starts.
-- Cole has a 1.20 RA in his last couple starts.
Cold pitchers
-- Wood is 1-2, 4.08 in his last three starts.
-- Leake is 1-1, 4.79 in his last three starts.
-- Lincecum is 1-1, 6.31 in five starts. Minor is making first '14 start; he was 1-1, 2.19 in his last two starts LY.
-- Arroyo is 0-2, 9.39 in his last three starts.
-- Price is 1-2, 7.65 in his last three starts. Nuno is 0-0, 2.89 in two starts, throwing total of only 9.1 IP in two games.
-- Salazar is 0-3, 7.32 in his last four starts.
-- Buchholz is 1-2, 7.71 in five starts. Straily is 0-0, 7.20 in his last three.
-- Porcello has a 4.91 RA in his last three starts.
-- Jimenez is 0-4, 6.59 in five starts for Baltimore. Nolasco is 2-2, 6.67 in five starts this season.
-- Hernnadez is 0-1, 4.50 in his last three starts. Peacock is 0-1, 6.30 in two starts this season.
-- Santiago is 0-4, 5.13 in five starts this season. Lewis is 1-1, 4.60 in his three starts this season.
-- Morrow is 0-1, 6.75 in his last three starts.
Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Wainwright 1-6; Wood 1-5
-- Strasburg 2-6; Lee 1-6
-- Peralta 0-5; Leake 1-5
-- Beckett 1-4; Koehler 0-5
-- Lincecum 3-5; Minor 0-0
-- Wheeler 2-5; de la Rosa 2-6
-- Arroyo 2-5; Cashner 1-6
-- Price 2-6; Nuno 1-2
-- Danks 2-5; Salazar 1-5
-- Straily 4-5; Buchholz 3-5
-- Porcello 3-4; Shields 1-6
-- Jimenez 2-5; Nolasco 0-5
-- Hernandez 1-6; Peacock 1-2
-- Lewis 1-3; Santiago 1-5
-- Morrow 1-5; Cole 1-5
Totals
-- Eight of last eleven games at Wrigley Field went over.
-- Eight of eleven Washington road games went over.
-- Five of last seven Cincinnati home games went over.
-- Six of last eight Dodger games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Atlanta home games stayed under.
-- Six of last eight Colorado games went over total.
-- Under is 5-0-1 in San Diego's last six home games. Over is 9-4 in Arizona's last thirteen road games.
-- Four of last five Pittsburgh home games stayed under.
-- Eight of last eleven Bronx home games stayed under; 11 of last 14 Tampa Bay games went over.
-- Four of last five White Sox road games went over.
-- Six of last eight games at Fenway Park went over.
-- Four of last five Detroit road games stayed under. Four of Lansas City's last five home games went over.
-- Eight of last nine Baltimore road games went over.
-- Last three Houston games stayed under the total; four of last five Seattle tilts went over.
-- Nine of eleven Angel home games went over total.
Hot teams
-- Reds won four of their last five home games.
-- Nationals won four of their last five games.
-- Dodgers won 11 of their 14 road games. Miami won five of its last six home games.
-- Giants won six of their last seven games.
-- Colorado won six of its last eight home games. Mets won seven of their last ten games overall.
-- A's won 12 of their 16 road games.
-- Detroit won four of its last five games. Royals won three of last four.
-- Orioles won six of their last nine games.
-- Mariners won five of their last six games.
-- Angels won their last four home games.
Cold teams
-- Cubs lost five of their last seven games. St Louis lost five of its last seven on the road.
-- Phillies lost three of their last four home games.
-- Milwaukee lost three of its last five games.
-- Braves lost last three games, but won eight of last nine at home.
-- Arizona lost four of its last five games. Padres are 4-7 in their last 11.
-- Pirates lost ten of their last twelve games. Toronto lost six of its last eight.
-- Bronx is 5-6 in its last eleven games.
-- Indians lost their last six games, but won four of last five at home. White Sox are 5-8 on the road.
-- Red Sox lost five of their last seven home games.
-- Minnesota lost four of its last five games.
-- Astros lost eleven of their last fourteen home games.
-- Rangers lost five of their last six games.Comment
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Today's MLB Picks
Arizona at San Diego
The Padres open their series tonight against a Diamondbacks team that is 2-8 in its last 10 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. San Diego is the pick (-160) according to Dunkel, which has the Padres favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-160). Here are all of today's picks.
FRIDAY, MAY 2
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. ESTGame 901-902: St. Louis at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.912; Cubs (Wood) 14.534
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-175); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-175); N/AGame 903-904: Washington at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Strasburg) 16.034; Philadelphia (Lee) 15.186
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-115); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-105); UnderGame 905-906: Milwaukee at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Peralta) 16.184; Cincinnati (Leake) 15.262
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+105); OverGame 907-908: LA Dodgers at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Beckett) 15.966; Miami (Koehler) 14.469
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-135); UnderGame 909-910: San Francisco at Atlanta (7:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.468; Atlanta (Minor) 16.150
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-150); UnderGame 911-912: NY Mets at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Wheeler) 16.321; Colorado (De La Rosa) 15.386
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Colorado (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+120); OverGame 913-914: Arizona at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Arroyo) 13.921; San Diego (Cashner) 15.455
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Diego (-160); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-160); UnderGame 915-916: Tampa Bay at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 14.424; NY Yankees (Nuno) 15.352
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/AGame 917-918: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 14.945; Cleveland (Salazar) 16.326
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-140); UnderGame 919-920: Oakland at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Straily) 15.476; Boston (Buchholz) 14.363
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+105); OverGame 921-922: Detroit at Kansas City (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 14.662; Kansas City (Shields) 16.311
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-150); UnderGame 923-924: Baltimore at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Jimenez) 16.092; Minnesota (Nolasco) 14.895
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-110); OverGame 925-926: Seattle at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 14.532; Houston (Peacock) 15.493
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Seattle (-200); 7
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+170); OverGame 927-928: Texas at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Lewis) 14.316; LA Angels (Santiago) 15.691
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-140); UnderGame 929-930: Toronto at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Morrow) 14.794; Pittsburgh (Cole) 16.291
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-140); UnderComment
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Today's NBA Picks
San Antonio at Dallas
The Spurs look to close out the series and come into tonight's contest with a 7-3 ATS record in their last 10 games in Dallas. San Antonio is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-3). Here are all of today's playoff picks.
FRIDAY, MAY 2
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. ESTGame 531-532: Toronto at Brooklyn (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 120.982; Brooklyn 122.920
Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 2; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 5; 191
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+5); OverGame 533-534: San Antonio at Dallas (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 128.417; Dallas 123.237
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 5; 193
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio 3; 198 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-3); UnderGame 535-536: Houston at Portland (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 121.141; Portland 125.975
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 5; 218
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 3 1/2; 213
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-3 1/2); OverComment
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Today's NHL Picks
NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
The Rangers advanced with a 2-1 win over the Flyers and come into tonight's opener with a 4-0 record in their last 4 games after scoring 2 goals or less in the previous game. New York is the pick (+130) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (+130). Here are all of today's playoff picks.
FRIDAY, MAY 2
Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. ESTGame 3-4: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 12.254; Pittsburgh 11.303
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-150); 5
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (+130); UnderGame 5-6: Minnesota at Chicago (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 11.778; Chicago 13.322
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-200); 5
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-200); OverComment
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Cappers Access
Nets -5
Brewers +125
Royals(RL) -1.5(+149)Comment
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Gamblers Data
Free Plays Friday
Brewers +105
Dodgers -130Comment
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
Free Play FRI Braves -150Comment
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Mighty Quinn
Mighty hit with the Pacers (-1) on Thursday and likes the Spurs on Friday.
The deficit is 210 sirignanos.Comment
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Baseball Crusher
San Diego Padres -155 over Arizona Diamondbacks
(System Record: 19-0, won last 6 games)
Overall Record: 19-12
Hockey Crusher
Chicago Blackhawks -193 over Minnesota
(Playoff Record: 10-3, won last 3 games)
(Regular Season Record: 91-4)
Overall Record: 101-78-2
Basketball Crusher
Dallas Mavericks +3 over San Antonio Spurs
(Playoff Record: 6-4-2, won last game)
(Regular Season Record: 78-8)
Overall Record: 83-90-7
Soccer Crusher
Quilmes + Argentinos Juniors UNDER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 564-20, won last 3 game and 2 pushes)
Overall Record: 564-477-83
Here are the rest of his baseball, hockey and basketball plays for today...
Baseball
Baltimore Orioles -105 over Minnesota
Oakland Athletics +115 over Boston
Philadelphia Phillies -111 over Washington Nats
Hockey
New York Rangers +135 over Pittsburgh Penguins
New York Rangers + Pittsburgh Penguins OVER 5
Minnesota Wild + Chicago Blackhawks UNDER 5
Basketball
Houston Rockets +3.5 over Portland
Brooklyn Nets + Toronto Raptors OVER 191
Houston Rockets + Portland Trail Blazers OVER 213Comment
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River City Sharps
We like the way both of these teams have been swinging the bats lately and think that the Reds are going to get to Peralta early tonight. The Sharps say...
2 UNITS - MIL/CIN OVER 7.5 (-110)Comment
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StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets
MLB | OAKLAND at BOSTON
Play On – Road teams (OAKLAND) off a win of 6 runs or more over a division rival, with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.00 over his last 3 starts
100-74 since 1997. ( 57.5% | 47.7 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends™ – FoxSheets
MLB | NY METS at COLORADO
NY METS are 41-35 (+27.8 Units) against the money line in Road games as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: NY METS (4.5) , OPPONENT (4.3)Comment
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