5-4-14

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Game of the Day: Mavericks at Spurs

Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs (-6.5, 197.5)

Series tied 3-3.

The Dallas Mavericks aim to become the sixth No. 8 seed in NBA history to win a first-round playoff series when they visit the San Antonio Spurs for Game 7 on Sunday. Dallas rallied to grab a 113-111 win in a do-or-die Game 6 at home Friday, pushing the Spurs to the verge of its second first-round loss as a top seed in just four seasons. The Mavericks will be undaunted by a Game 7 on the road, having won Game 2 in San Antonio by 21 points and going to the wire in their other two road games.

The numbers are in San Antonio's favor, as home teams were 91-23 all-time in Game 7s in all rounds entering the weekend, but Dallas has given itself a chance to pull off the upset. "It's the ultimate thrill," Mavericks forward Dirk Nowitzki said of having one game to stay alive. San Antonio is 3-5 in Game 7s, including a loss in the NBA Finals last season and another in overtime against Dallas in the 2006 Western Conference semifinals.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

LINE HISTORY: The Spurs opened as 6-point home faves but have been bet to -6.5. The total opened 198 and has been bet up to 198.5.

INJURY REPORT: Mavericks - Jose Calderon (Probable, Nose).

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "While the Spurs controlled the regular season meetings, going 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) versus the Mavericks, that has not been the case in this playoff series. It is tied 3-3, but the Mavericks are a perfect 6-0 ATS as their three playoff losses have come by just 5, 4, and 6 point margins. Home teams historically win Game 7 straight-up, but covering might be a different story as the current line is Spurs -6.5 and San Antonio has yet to win by that large of a margin in this entire playoff series." Covers' Experts Steve Merril

ABOUT THE MAVERICKS: It is clear that Dallas missed the presence of forward DeJuan Blair in its Game 5 at San Antonio, as the former Spur was suspended during the Mavericks' 109-103 loss but returned to provide 10 points, 14 rebounds and four steals on Friday. Blair, Devin Harris and Vince Carter combined for 34 points off the Dallas bench in Game 6, continuing a solid contribution for the reserves in support of Nowitzki and Monta Ellis, who is the top scorer among both teams in the series. "We pride ourselves on trying to outscore and dominate the other team’s second unit," Carter said after the Mavericks' bench secured a 37-25 scoring advantage on San Antonio's reserves.

ABOUT THE SPURS: Despite the loss in Game 6, San Antonio has to feel good about the emergence of guard Danny Green, who shook off a series of lackluster play with 17 points on 7-of-7 shooting in the loss. Green had only six baskets combined in the first five games and was never a factor down the stretch until he buried a big 3-pointer with 12 seconds left to help keep the Spurs close in Game 6. His emergence did plenty to offset a difficult game for fellow shooting guard Manu Ginobili, who entered leading the team in scoring for the series before going 1-for-8 from the floor and missing all five of his 3-point tries in a six-point showing.

TRENDS:

* Mavericks are 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Underdog is 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings.
* Spurs are 0-8 ATS in their last eight vs. Western Conference.

CONSENSUS: 54 percent of wagers are on the Mavericks.

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Cappers Access

Raptors -3
Marlins(RL) -1.5(+131)
Cubs +125

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EZWINNERS

2* D-Backs +100
2* Rockies $150
2* Cubs +105
2* Indians -155
2* Giants +115
2* Red Sox +130
2* Tigers -130

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Today's MLB Picks

Milwaukee at Cincinnati

The Brewers look to bounce back from yesterday's loss to the Reds and come into today's contest with a 6-0 record in Kyle Lohse's last 6 starts as a road underdog. Milwaukee is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Brewers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+105). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, MAY 4 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: Washington at Philadelphia (3:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Gonzalez) 16.334; Philadelphia (Burnett) 14.786 Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Washington (-125); 7 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-125); Under

Game 903-904: LA Dodgers at Miami (1:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Fife) 16.697; Miami (Fernandez) 15.788 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Miami (-200); 7 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+170); Over

Game 905-906: San Francisco at Atlanta (1:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Bumgarner) 15.138; Atlanta (Wood) 16.425 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-145); 7 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-145); Over

Game 907-908: Arizona at San Diego (4:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Miley) 14.919; San Diego (Ross) 14.341 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: San Diego (-120); 7 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+100); Under

Game 909-910: Milwaukee at Cincinnati (4:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Lohse) 15.407; Cincinnati (Simon) 14.210 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 6 1/2 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+105); Under

Game 911-912: NY Mets at Colorado (4:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Gee) 15.330; Colorado (Chacin) 16.558 Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 12 Vegas Line: Colorado (-150); 10 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-150); Over

Game 913-914: St. Louis at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lynn) 16.057; Cubs (Hammel) 14.611 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 9 1/2 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-145); No Run Total Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-145); N/A

Game 915-916: Tampa Bay at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Bedard) 15.475; NY Yankees (Sabathia) 14.480 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 8 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-160); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+140); Under

Game 917-918: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland (1:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Rienzo) 14.918; Cleveland (Kluber) 14.099 Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 10 Vegas Line: Cleveland (-155); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+135); Over

Game 919-920: Oakland at Boston (1:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Gray) 16.762; Boston (Lackey) 15.450 Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Oakland (-115); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-115); Under

Game 921-922: Seattle at Houston (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Maurer) 13.895; Houston (McHugh) 14.912 Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Houston (-115); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Houston (-115); Over

Game 923-924: Detroit at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 15.142; Kansas City (Vargas) 16.115 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 6 1/2 Vegas Line: Detroit (-140); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+120); Under

Game 925-926: Baltimore at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Gonzalez) 15.606; Minnesota (Hughes) 14.552 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Minnesota (-110); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-110); Over

Game 927-928: Texas at LA Angels (3:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Darvish) 16.489; LA Angels (Skaggs) 14.827 Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Texas (-120); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Texas (-120); Under

Game 929-930: Toronto at Pittsburgh (1:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (McGowan) 15.603; Pittsburgh (Volquez) 14.773 Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-135); 8 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-135); Under

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Free Play SUN Over 5 Blackhawks/Minn NHL

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Sunday

Mets +130

Mavs +6.5

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with Candy Boy in the Kentucky Derby on Saturday and likes the Nets on Sunday.

The deficit is 315 sirignanos.

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Today's NBA Picks

Dallas at San Antonio

The Mavericks head to San Antonio for Game 7 following a 113-111 win in Game 6 and face a Spurs team that is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game. Dallas is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by only 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+6 1/2). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

SUNDAY, MAY 4 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 545-546: Brooklyn at Toronto (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Brooklyn 120.581; Toronto 124.920 Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 4 1/2; 183 Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 2 1/2; 187 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-2 1/2); Under

Game 547-548: Dallas at San Antonio (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 121.175; San Antonio 124.480 Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 3 1/2; 205 Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 6 1/2; 197 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+6 1/2); Over

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Today's NHL Picks

NY Rangers at Pittsburgh

The Penguins look to bounce back from their 3-2 overtime loss in Game 1 as they face a Rangers team that is 1-4 in its last 5 games following a win. Pittsburgh is the pick (-165) according to Dunkel, which has the Penguins favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-165). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

SUNDAY, MAY 4 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 11-12: Minnesota at Chicago (3:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 12.540; Chicago 11.876 Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1/2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-220); 5 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+185); Under

Game 13-14: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 10.688; Pittsburgh 12.156 Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-165); 5 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-165); Over

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NBA

Sunday, May 4

Five of six Toronto-Brooklyn games were decided by 8 or less points, with home side going 2-1 in each building. Raptors blew 26-point lead in Game 5 here, rallied to win/ DeRozan scored 30-30-24-23-29 points in last four games, but is just 40-106 from floor in series. Toronto was +7 in turnovers last two games; they're -18 (89-71) in series. Brooklyn lost seven of last 11 games. Underdogs are 4-1-1 vs spread so far in series.

Dallas lost 12 of last 15 games vs Spurs, but they've covered all six in this series and last seven games overall- their two series losses here are by 5-6 points. Underdogs covered last nine Dallas games. Four of last five series games went over total; over is 23-20 in San Antonio home games this year. Spurs covered once in their last eight games as favorite. Five of six series games were decided by six points or less.

From Spreadapedia: since 2006 game 7 unders are 23-7. 18-3 for lines less than 190. Since 2003 first round game 6-7's, under is 28-16-1.

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NHL

Sunday, May 4

Rangers are playing third road game in five days; they're 3-2 vs Penguins this year, after Pitt won eight of previous nine games in series. Over is 4-0-1 in series games this season. Rangers lost five of last seven visits here- they haven't scored on power play since Game 2 of Pilly series- they're 28-17 on road. Pittsburgh is 31-14 at home this year; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine games. Pens outshot New York 27-12 in periods 2-3 Friday, rallied from 2-0 deficit but Rangers 3:06 into OT to grab home ice advantage in series.

Minnesota scored twice in first 6:56 of third period to tie Game 1 2-2, but then lost 5-2, their 8th loss in last ten games here. Chicago won its last five games, allowing total of eight goals; they were 2-4 on power play in Game 1, scoring three goals on six third period shots. Over is 5-1-1 in last seven series tilts. Minnesota outshot Blackhawks 17-3 in second period Friday, but Chicago scored only goal of period. Chicago is 33-12 at home this year, winning all four home playoff games. Wild was down 2-0 in Colorado series, rallied back to win series.

League-wide, over is 32-11-10 in the playoffs, 3-0-2 in this round.

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Hondo

OAKLAND
ROCKIES

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Spartan

3* Dallas Mavericks

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StatFox Super Situations™ – FoxSheets

NBA | DALLAS at SAN ANTONIO
Play Under – Road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, with a winning record on the season
58-26 since 1997. ( 69.0% | 29.4 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% | -1.2 units )

NBA | DALLAS at SAN ANTONIO
Play On – Favorites vs. the money line (SAN ANTONIO) average defensive team (92-98 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG), after scoring 105 points or more
165-40 over the last 5 seasons. ( 80.5% | 67.6 units )
23-8 this year. ( 74.2% | 4.6 units )

NBA | DALLAS at SAN ANTONIO
Play On – Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (DALLAS) excellent free throw shooting team (>=79%) against a good free throw shooting team (76-79%), in a game involving two good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO’s) after 42+ games
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
3-3 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.3 units )