5-8-14

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FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball

1000* Play Detroit -220 over Houston (MLB TOP PLAY)

Houston has lost 96 of the last 126 games when playing as an underdog of +175 to +250 and they have lost 74 of the last 99 games when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs.Houston has lost 42 of the last 55 day games and they have lost 80 of the last 109 games after having lost 15 or more of the last 20 games.

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50* Play Tampa Bay -160 over Baltimore (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Cleveland -160 over Minnesota (MLB BONUS PLAY)

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XpertPicks

THURSDAY

• Play Brooklyn +8 over Miami (NBA)---RISK 10% OF YOUR BANKROLL
  7:00 PM EST

Miami has lost 16 of the last 24 games against the spread coming off two or more OVER the totals and they have lost 11 of the last 17 games against the spread coming off a home win by ten points or more.Miami has lost 8 of the last 11 games against the spread after scoring 105 points or more in two straight games and they have lost 19 of the last 34 games when the total posted is between 190 and 199.5 points.

• Play Portland +7 over San Antonio (TOP NBA PLAY)---RISK 3% OF BANKROLL

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NHL HOCKEY

• Play Montreal +120 over Boston (TOP NHL PLAY)---RISK 3% OF BANKROLL
• Play Anaheim +140 over Los Angeles (TOP NHL PLAY)---RISK 3% OF BANKROLL

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XpertPicks

THURSDAY BASEBALL

• Play Philadelphia +110 over Toronto----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
  7:00 PM EST

AJ Burnett has won 8 of the last 11 games vs. AL East Division Opponents and he has won 22 of the last 34 games when pitching in the 1^st half of the season. AJ Burnett has won 26 of the last 42 games when pitching on a Thursday and he is 2-0 over the last three starts with an ERA of 1.31.

• Play Miami +140 over San Diego----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
  10:00 PM EST

Ian Kennedy has lost 17 of the last 27 games when pitching in the month of May and he has lost 27 of the last 47 night games. Ian Kennedy has lost 20 of the last 36 games when pitching as a favorite of -110 or higher and he is 0-4 at home this season with an ERA of 5.09.

• Play Kansas City +120 over Seattle----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
  10:00 PM EST

Danny Duffy has won 10 of the last 15 games when the line posted is between +125 to -125 and he has won 4 consecutive road games. Danny Duffy has won 8 of the last 11 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and he has an ERA of 2.19 in all starts this season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin's Pick(s):

A walk off WIN in Miami, as the Marlins win 1-0 in a beautifully pitched game by Koehler (actually both starters were stellar). I've got another afternoon play going for Thursday...
2 UNIT = Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers - ASTROS TO WIN (+193)
Listed Pitchers: Keuchel vs Smyly
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 3.86 units)
I'll be going with a big ugly dog here for Thursday afternoon. The Astros will send Dallas Keuchel to the mound for his 7th start of the season. He has been one of the lone bright spots for the Astros as he is 2-2 with a 3.96 ERA, .254 OBA and 1.27 WHIP. He strung together four straight quality starts before allowing 4 earned runs over 6 innings his last time out. Houston is 3-3 when he starts. Detroit will counter with a southpaw of their own in Drew Smyly. Smyly is 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA, .211 OBA and 1.00 WHIP over 5 appearances (3 starts). There aren't a lot of stats or trends that back up the Astros lately, because they just struggle to win ball games. With that said this is a good spot for them to avoid the four game sweep in an afternoon game as the Tigers may rest some starters to get ready for a weekend series with Minnesota. Keuchel has been good this year, and versus Smyly I think we've got some value with this big +193 line.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BeatYourBookie

THURSDAY

MLB BASEBALL


10* Play Philadelphia +110 over Toronto (MLB TOP PLAY)
Toronto is 61-72 when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs
Toronto is 16-27 when playing on a Thursday
Toronto is 28-42 after having won four or five of the last six games


10* Play Kansas City +120 over Seattle (MLB TOP PLAY)

Seattle is 14-31 when playing as a home favorite of -125 to -175
Seattle is 13-20 when playing on a Thursday the last three seasons
Seattle is 56-64 vs. left-handed starting pitchers the last three seasons

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5* Play Colorado +120 over Texas (MLB EXTRA PLAY)
5* Play Miami +140 over San Diego (MLB EXTRA PLAY)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BeatYourBookie

THURSDAY

NBA Basketball


10* Play Brooklyn +8 over Miami (NBA TOP PLAY)
10* Play Portland +7 over San Antonio (NBA TOP PLAY)


NHL Hockey


10* Play Montreal +120 over Boston (NHL TOP PLAY)
10* Play Anaheim +140 over Los Angeles (NHL TOP PLAY

[Can'tPickAWinner]

sweetjones55

Washington Wizards -3 -120 (x1.5)

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INSIDER SPORTS REPORT

4* CUBS UNDER 9
3* Nets
3*Port un

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Ecks and Bacon

Ben lee won his two team five point teaser in the NBA Playoffs for Wednesday.

(1) Wizards from +4 to +9/Pacers (W)

(2) Thunder from -5.5 to -.5/Clippers (W)

"Mr Chalk" won in Interleague MLB on Wednesday with the Red Sox -$150/Reds.

For Thursday in the NBA Playoffs E&B like the Trailblazers +7/Spurs.

"Mr Chalk" has Np in MLB for Thursday.

Ben lee is 12-7 +$155 for Week Twenty Seven 117-129-5 -$2207

"Mr Chalk" is 18-14 -$168 for the 2014 MLB season

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trail Blazers-Spurs: The Game Inside the Game

Before undergoing a deep review of San Antonio’s Game #1 destruction of Portland, there can be a quick temptation to say “Not much to see there” and move on. A veteran team with a lot of playoff savvy (Tim Duncan has appeared in more playoff games than the Trail Blazer franchise) threw a heavyweight punch, and the young side showed a glass jaw. But what if it was not just the setting, but rather an X’s vs. O’s continuation? That is where one needs to focus, as a key in building their handicap for Game #2.

There is much that can be written about how easily the Spurs attacked the weak side of the Trail Blazer defense on Tuesday – one Portland writer accurately labeled it as “Pick-and-Roll-Palooza”. Tony Parker scored nearly a point-a-minute, while also dishing out nine assists. But the bigger story might have been on defense.

The Trail Blazers only managed 39 first half points, and finished the night with 13 assists, the second lowest total of the season. But instead of that having to do with playoff inexperience and nerves, we need to go back two months, and the last meeting between the two teams on this court. In that one Portland only managed 40 first half points, falling behind by 16, and the nine assists were the season low.

That makes the last two meetings 121-79 at halftime, and of the 89 Trail Blazer games, the assist counts finished at #88 and #89. Damian Lillard had more turnovers than assists in those games (8-6), while Wesley Matthews and Mo Williams could only manage a combined 50-50 ratio (9-9). And that is despite the San Antonio defense backing off in the second half with those big leads.

For all the reputation of the Spurs being a smooth-flowing team on offense, they were #4 this season in team defensive efficiency, #4 in effective FG%, and #6 for fewest turnovers allowed. Over those last two games they have stifled the Portland offensive flow, and the following from Nicholas Batum, to the Portland Oregonian, speaks volumes –

“The way they guarded me, it was way different than what I faced in the first six games against Houston. I had no freedom. I couldn’t do anything. It wasn’t one guy on me, it was everybody. They play great team defense. Everytime I got a step, a big guy would step up on me. You can ask Mo (Williams) and Dame (Damion Lillard); we had no freedom.’’

That is where the handicapping breakdown for Game #2 begins. After losing the first two games to the Trail Blazers this season, before winning the third behind a make-shift starting lineup of Belinelli-Joseph-Green-Diaw-Splitter, has Gregg Popovich devised a rotation of X’s that the Portland O’s will struggle to solve? Which brings up the key counterpoint - for Terry Stotts it is not just a matter of handling the psyche of his team off of that blowout, but also of creating some playbook wrinkles to counter. That might be asking a lot out of that lone Wednesday practice session, especially when it is the first time in his coaching career he has one day to prepare a team off of a playoff road loss.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STEVE FEZZIK

3* Brooklyn +8 vs Miami

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Baseball Crusher
Toronto Blue Jays -122 over Philadelphia Phillies
(System Record: 23-0, lost last game)
Overall Record: 23-14

Hockey Crusher
Montreal Canadiens +114 over Boston Bruins
(Playoff Record: 13-6, lost last 3 games)
(Regular Season Record: 91-4)
Overall Record: 104-80-2

Basketball Crusher
Brooklyn Nets +8 over Miami Heat
(Playoff Record: 8-7-3, lost last game and a push)
(Regular Season Record: 78-8)
Overall Record: 85-92-8

Soccer Crusher
Vestsjaelland + AGF Aarhus UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Denmark
(System Record: 565-20, lost last 3 games)
Overall Record: 565-480-84

Rest of Crusher's Plays Today:

Los Angeles Dodgers -151 over San Francisco Giants
Kansas City Royals +128 over Seattle Mariners
Cleveland Indians -160 over Minnesota Twins

Anaheim Ducks +123 over LA Kings
Anaheim Ducks + Los Angeles Kings UNDER 5
Boston Bruins + Montreal Canadiens OVER 5

Portland Trail Blazers +7 over San Antonio Spurs
Brooklyn Nets + Miami Heat OVER 192
San Antonio Spurs + Portland Trail Blazers OVER 207

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HONDO

San Francisco Giants +140 w/Vogelsong

Hondo, who hit the trifecta Tuesday night, stayed hot Wednesday afternoon with the Marlins, but gave it right back at night with his willy-nilly Phillie pick. As a result, he treaded water and remained 605 kuenns in the hole.
Thursday night: Mr. Aitch will take a shot with Vogelsong, and that’s the name of that tune — 10 units on the Giants.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BEN BURNS

MLB blue marlin beatdown TB Rays
NHL - P.F. Boston Bruins
NHL O/U B.B. Bruins under

NBA – 10* MAIN EVENT! — UNDER – Portland vs San Antonio

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MLB

Thursday, May 8

Capping the best 5-inning teams in baseball

Five-inning MLB odds are the fastfood of baseball betting.

You don’t have time to sit through a full nine innings, the kids are screaming at each other, but you want to get some MLB action down. Five-inning odds are your answer.

You’ve handicapped the starters and shopped around for the best prices, but you’ll be damned if you’re going to let some tater-tossing reliever spoil your wager in the late innings. Five-inning odds go down smoother than a cold beer in the bleachers.

You have to kill time in the sportsbook before the big Game 7 showdown tips off and you’re tired of getting trucked by video poker. Hey, five-inning odds – how’s it hangin’?

Betting on shortened MLB action is not a new process. Books have been offering five-inning offerings for years. However, according to books, five-inning lines only make up about 6.5 percent of a game’s total handle, so it’s not the most trafficked market for baseball bettors.

Here’s a look at best teams through the first five innings of action to start the 2014 MLB season:

Detroit Tigers: 3.07 runs for/1.78 runs against = +1.29

The Tigers are no surprise to see at the top of this list. Detroit is 20-9 heading into Thursday’s action – tops in the American League – and a lot of that has to do with a starting staff boasting a 2.73 collective ERA, which ranks tops in the majors. However, Detroit’s bullpen is putting up a 5.24 ERA – second worst in the bigs. A five-inning wager banks more on the Tigers’ starters and makes it less likely the relievers will piss away your win.


Colorado Rockies: 3.65 runs for/2.47 runs against = +1.18

The Rockies surprised some with their start to the still-young season, chasing down the Giants in the National League West. Colorado is crushing it, averaging 5.97 runs per game – 3.65 of those run coming in the first five innings. The pitching staff hasn’t been as potent with a collective 4.09 ERA but is allowing just 2.47 runs through the first five innings, which is good enough for those playing the five-inning odds.


Oakland Athletics: 3.19 runs for/2.13 runs against = +1.06

Moneyball isn’t just a nine-inning equation. The Athletics’ mathematical formula for success is paying off for five-inning bettors as well. Oakland works quick, scoring 65 percent of its runs through the first five – most notably in the first (0.84 run per first inning) and third (0.91) innings. However, the A’s haven’t played to form in recent games, going 2-5-1 in the first five innings the past eight games as of Wednesday.


Kansas City Royals: 2.32 runs for/2.10 runs against = +0.22

The Royals don’t have the biggest run differential through the first five innings but are presenting better value on five-inning odds than a full nine-inning moneyline wager. Kansas City was just 16-17 heading into Thursday's date with the Mariners and down -333 units on the year. However, in that same span, the Royals were 16-11-6 in the first five innings – winning 59 percent of the time. When you factor in that K.C. was likely an underdog or short favorite in those games – and that its bullpen has a 4.17 ERA and six blown saves – five-inning odds are the way to go in Kansas City.