5-12-14

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BeatYourBookie

MONDAY

NBA Basketball


10* Play Brooklyn +2.5 over Miami (NBA TOP PLAY)
10* Play San Antonio -3.5 over Portland (NBA TOP PLAY)


NHL Hockey


10* Play Montreal +120 over Boston (NHL TOP PLAY)
10* Play Anaheim -130 over Los Angeles (NHL TOP PLAY)

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BeatYourBookie

MONDAY

MLB BASEBALL


10* Play LA Angels +100 over Toronto (MLB TOP PLAY)

Toronto is 33-42 vs. AL West Division Opponents the last three seasons
Toronto is 18-29 after allowing 9 runs or more in their last game
Toronto is 45-58 vs. left-handed starting pitchers


10* Play Miami +160 over LA Dodgers (MLB TOP PLAY)

Dan Haren is 7-16 when pitching as a favorite of -150 or higher
Dan Haren is 0-6 when pitching on a Monday the last three seasons
Dan Haren is 13-20 in home games the last three seasons

=============================================


5* Play Houston +120 over Texas (MLB EXTRA PLAY)
5* Play Arizona +110 over Washington (MLB EXTRA PLAY)

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Paul Leiner:

1000* NBA Over 210.5 Blazers/Spurs
100* NBA Heat -2.5
100* MLB Over 7.5 White Sox/As
50* MLB Rangers -135

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EZWINNERS

2* Tigers -115

2* Rangers -135

2* White Sox +161

1* Braves RL+1.5 -225

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Ecks and Bacon

Ben lee lost his two team five point teaser in the NBA Plaoyoffs on Sunday.

(1) Wizards from -5 to Pk/Pacers (L)

(2) Clippers from 5 to Pk/Thunder (W)

"Mr Chalk" lost in extra innings in MLB on Sunday in the National League with the Dodgers -$147/Giants.

For Monday in the NBA Playoffs E&B like the Heat -$2/Nets.

"Mr Chalk" has Np in MLB for Monday.

E&B have Np in the NHL Playoffs for Monday.

Ben lee is 119-135-5 -$2476 through Twenty Eight weeks.

"Mr Chalk" is 19-16 -$262 for the 2014 MLB season.

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted.

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Thunder (+5) on Sunday and likes the Heat on Monday.

The deficit is 261 sirignanos.

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Heat at Nets: What bettors need to know

Miami Heat at Brooklyn Nets (+2.5, 187.5)

The Brooklyn Nets have the opportunity to turn the Eastern Conference series into a best-of-three when they host the Miami Heat in Monday’s Game 4. After being beaten handily in the first two games, Brooklyn was the superior squad in Saturday’s 104-90 victory, and following up that performance with another win would tie the series at two games apiece. Miami scored just 33 total points in the middle two quarters while suffering its first postseason loss since last year.

The Nets set a franchise record with 15 3-pointers in the double-digit victory with guard Joe Johnson (five) and backup forward Mirza Teletovic (four) combining for nine. Also of note was how Brooklyn slowed down LeBron James over the final three quarters (12 points on 2-of-8 shooting) after he erupted for 16 first-quarter points on 6-of-7 shooting. “It’s a 48-minute game,” Nets coach Jason Kidd told reporters. “I’m not counting how many times you score. I’m looking at how many shots he’s taking and he was making them in the first quarter. We didn’t lose patience and we stuck with the game plan and we found a way to win.”

TV: 8 p.m. ET, TNT

ABOUT THE HEAT: Though Miami was staggered a bit in Game 3, the two-time defending champs are good at brushing off defeats. “I’ve been part of a lot of series and understand that the series is never won in two games or in three games,” James told reporters. “And you move onto the next one and you learn from the previous one how you can get better.” The Heat have followed up each of their last eight playoff defeats with a victory as they typically kick it up into a higher gear. “We didn’t have that desperation in this game,” said center Chris Bosh after Game 3, “but usually, a loss will do that and you’ll come back with it.”

ABOUT THE NETS: Strong bench play from Teletovic (12 points) and Andray Blatche (15 points, 10 rebounds) helped fuel the impressive victory. Teletovic opened up the floor with his 3-point marksmanship and Blatche operated superbly in the paint with his first career playoff double-double. Blatche was a bit intimidated by the stage in the first two games – “I wasn’t being as aggressive as I should’ve been,” he said – but in Game 3, he provided the type of energy the team needed in the second quarter. Bench play will continue to be key with point guard Deron Williams struggling on the offensive end – 3-of-20 shooting over the last two games.

TRENDS:

* Over is 19-6-1 in the last 26 meetings in Brooklyn.
* Home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
* Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. Eastern Conference.
* Over is 5-2 in Heat last seven overall.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. The 104 points scored by the Nets marked the first time this postseason Miami allowed 100 or more.

2. Teletovic is 11-of-19 from 3-point range in the series and 33 of his 37 points have come from behind the arc.

3. Heat G Ray Allen missed his only 3-point attempt in Game 3 after making 7-of-12 over the first two games.

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Spurs at Trail Blazers: What bettors need to know

San Antonio Spurs at Portland Trail Blazers (+3.5, 210.5)

The San Antonio Spurs are making it look easy as they cruise toward the Western Conference finals. The Spurs will try to polish off a four-game sweep when they visit the Portland Trail Blazers for Game 4 of the semifinals on Monday. The Trail Blazers thought the change of scenery could change the complexion of the series but San Antonio was just as impressive on the road and ended up cruising to a 118-103 victory in Game 3.

No NBA team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit in a best-of-seven series and Portland is just hoping for a better effort. “We’re going to come out and have a great effort on Monday night,” Trail Blazers coach Terry Stotts told reporters. “That’s the most important thing. We’re going to show our character, we’re going to show our pride and we’re going to come out and play our (rear ends) off on Monday.” The Spurs recognize that getting the final win won’t be easy. “The close-out is always the hardest game,” San Antonio guard Tony Parker said.

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, TNT

ABOUT THE SPURS: San Antonio is the fourth team in NBA history to win four straight postseason games by 15 or more points and has rarely looked vulnerable against the Trail Blazers. The Spurs held a 60-40 lead at the half in Game 3 - the third straight time they held at least a 19-point cushion at the break - and controlled the game in the second half. Parker scored 20 of his 29 points in the first half on Saturday and is averaging 26 points in the series. “(Parker) got us out of the gates,” forward Tim Duncan told reporters. “He continues to shoot the ball really well. He’s getting to his spots. He’s making great decisions for our offense.”

ABOUT THE TRAIL BLAZERS: Portland has yet to figure out a way to slow the San Antonio offense in the first half and is struggling to get into a rhythm early with its own offense. “”It’s frustrating,” Stotts told reporters. “You’ve got to play through the frustration. It’s part of the game. It’s part of the playoffs. … But yeah, it’s frustrating to get down 20 in the first half. You look at the scoreboard and it’s a hole.” All-Stars LaMarcus Aldridge (38 percent) and Damian Lillard (37.5) are both struggling from the field in the series while Mo Williams (groin) has been a non-factor off the bench and could miss his second straight game on Monday.

TRENDS:

* Spurs are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last five Conference Semifinals games.
* Trail Blazers are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.
* Over is 6-0 in Spurs last six overall.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. The Spurs bench is outscoring the Blazers’ reserves 140-43 in the series.

2. Lillard is just 1-of-13 from beyond the arc in the series after hitting 23-of-47 in the first round.

3. Portland has led for a total of 33 seconds in the three games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Spurs/Trail Blazers: The Game Inside the Game
By DAVID MALINSKY

When a series gets to 3-0, the usual Zig Zag patterns of oddsmaking for the NBA playoffs go away. The markets clearly understand the long-term patterns for these games, which is why the Spurs can close at +1 on Saturday night, and now be sitting at -3.5 for Monday, which a good chance that -4’s appear. And understanding why the history of these games has been so strong should be your starting point for breaking down Game #4.

As always there are two parts to the equation, although the mentality of the team down 0-3 might carry more than half of the weighting in terms of the outcome. But let’s open by dealing with the favorite. Does a team up 3-0 take a breather knowing that the series is in hand? Rarely.

First, to be up 3-0 means that you are pretty good, and that also tends to mean pretty savvy as well. Savvy grasps that the faster you close a series, the more rest before the next one begins. Look no further than to Gregg Popovich, who is also Exhibit A for Monday night. This is the 12th time that Pops has been up 3-0 in a playoff series, and through the first 11 it has been a perfect 11-0 SU, with an 8-3 ATS, going for the closeout. In those 11 games the Spurs beat the spread by a significant 76 points. The margin is meaningful because these are isolated games with an unobstructed focus from the oddsmakers and betting markets, and not a mid-season pattern through which they could be caught napping.

Yes, Popovich will want to get this game and go back to San Antonio for some respite, especially with the Thunder and Clippers in the process of potentially exhausting each other. Which then takes us to Exhibit B.

The strength of 3-0 teams getting closeouts will look mostly like the better teams going for the jugular the way that history records the results, but as mentioned above, it is the team down 0-3 that often carries more weight in terms of the result. In these settings, backers of the trailing team often do not get their money’s worth.

Focus on the psychology. When you are down 0-3 you know that you are not the better team, and that winning the series is almost certainly beyond reach. So with the end to a long season in sight, there is often a mindset of just getting it over with and heading towards vacation time (yes, the NBA lifestyle is absolutely a factor here). Consider what it means for an 0-3 team to be playing at home – a win forces another road trip, to face the inevitable on the home court of the superior team. Many players genuinely do not want that.

Every once in a while there will be an 0-3 team that brings a purpose to merely win a single game, and not get swept. That can happen in the first round, especially for a team lacking playoff experience, for which a single win would matter. But as the rounds go by that motivation falls away.

Which brings us to Portland for Monday. There is no logical reason to believe that the Trail Blazers can turn this series around – in losing by a combined 56 points they have led for only 33 seconds. Since they have a series win over Houston under their belts, getting swept 4-0 would not be a huge embarrassment. But there may be a question about their effort that was already answered.

Terry Stotts and his team had a chance to turn the series momentum in front of a terrific home crowd on Saturday night. It was the kind of setting in which a team’s energy should have been at a zenith. So what happened? The Trail Blazers trailed 60-40 at halftime. That was not necessarily anything new – they trailed the first two games by a combined 45 points at intermission. But here is what was bothersome – in that first half of Game #3 they did not have a single steal or blocked shot. The effort that should have been, wasn’t.

If Portland did not bring it on Saturday, should there be any expectation of that changing for Game #4? That becomes your starting point to build a good handicap at the adjusted pointspread, with one other important notion – while the Trail Blazers did not play well, Stotts did keep the pedal down for his struggling machine. Every starter went at least 36:50, with LaMarcus Aldridge at 44:02 and Damian Lillard 43:01, which makes it even more difficult to recharge the batteries for a “last stand”.

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Monday's MLB betting cheat sheet: Subway Series returns

Here's a comprehensive look at betting notes for Monday's major-league games:

Road Warriors

The road teams represented well Sunday, going 9-6 overall. Notable road underdog victories included Minnesota (+140) rallying to beat Detroit 4-3, San Francisco (+156) upending the Los Angeles Dodgers 7-4 and Houston (+165) knocking off Baltimore 5-2.

Breaking New Ground

The Arizona Diamondbacks (-109) have their first win of the season as a road favorite following Sunday's 5-1 triumph over the Chicago White Sox. Arizona, which came into the game having lost its only other game as a road fave, has won seven of 10 overall but is still at -1,013 units for the season.

Subway Series Returns

The New York Mets (+136, 8.5) travel to Yankee Stadium for a date with their cross-town rivals in the opener of a four-game interleague series. The teams have met 22 times since 2010; the Yankees own a 12-10 edge in that span while the teams have combined to go 8-14 O/U.

Pitching Notes

* Monday represents Seattle pitcher Felix Hernandez's first start of the year against a team outside the AL West. Hernandez, whose Mariners host Tampa Bay (+147, 7), went 6-10 against the moneyline and 5-10-1 in 16 starts outside his division last year.

* Los Angeles Angels lefty C.J. Wilson will make his sixth straight start against a team outside the AL West. Wilson is 3-2 against the moneyline and 2-3 O/U in that stretch as he prepares to face the host Toronto Blue Jays (-108, 9)

Batting Notes

* Miami Marlins outfielder Giancarlo Stanton is riding a 13-game hitting streak coming into Monday's tilt with the host Dodgers (-153, 7). Stanton is batting .370 over that stretch for the Marlins, who are 9-4 against the moneyline and 9-3-1 O/U during the streak.

* Tampa Bay outfielder Matt Joyce has recorded multiple RBIs in back-to-back games; the Rays are 5-0-1 O/U this season when Joyce drives in two or more runs. He may struggle to keep the streak going Monday, as he's just 1-for-12 lifetime versus Fernandez.

Totals Streak

Cleveland Indians (3-0-1 O/U): Cleveland rolled off five consecutive Unders before this recent Over stretch, which saw the Indians go 3-1 against the moneyline. They're now 19-18-1 O/U for the season.

Prop of the Day

A quick start by the New York Mets could yield profits against the Yankees. The Mets are at -180 to record a first-inning hit in Monday's interleague tilt; they're batting .315 in the first inning so far this season, the second-best mark in the majors.

Injury Notes

* Los Angeles Dodgers third baseman Juan Uribe (hamstring) was unavailable Sunday and may need to go on the disabled list. The Dodgers are -170 units in just three games this season without Uribe, who is hitting .306 in 134 at-bats.

* Milwaukee Brewers outfield Ryan Braun (oblique) is on track to be activated from the disabled list Tuesday. Braun is hitting .318 with six homers in 88 at-bats; the Brewers are 6-8 against the moneyline, -222 units and 10-4 O/U during his stint on the DL.

Weather Watch

* Fans at Busch Stadium should expect wind blowing out to left field at 13 mph for Monday's game between the Cardinals (-160, 7.5) and the Chicago Cubs. Teams combined to average better than nine runs per game in 10 contests in 2013 with the wind blowing out to left.

Umpire of the Day

Over is 21-5-1 in umpire Larry Vanover's last 27 Monday games behind home plate. Vanover calls the balls and strikes for the series finale between the Angels and Blue Jays.

** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 11:45 a.m. ET Monday.

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Hondo

MLB

Miami
TB rays

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Doc Sports

mlb

3* Tigers -105

[golden contender]

GC: MLB Play

Huge Monday has rare 7* 100% NHL Playoff Game of the year with a historical angle that is perfect since the 40/s. In The NBA We have Both 5* Sides one is a Triple Perfect play the other has 5 systems. In Bases we have a Pair of totals one is 10-0 since 2004 the other has a 28-4 Pitching Indicator. Free MLB Play below.


On Monday the free MLB System Play is on the SF. Giants. Game 908 at 10:15 eastern. The Giants fir a nice 83% system here tonight that plays on home favorites off road dog win at +140 or higher and scored 5 or more runs,vs an opponent like the Braves that are off a home favored win at -140 or higher. The Braves have lost all 3 to the Giants this season and are averaging under 2 runs in their last 7 games. They are hitting just .219 on the road. The Giants arrive back home after taking 3 of 4 from the LA Dodgers and are now a solid 11-4 vs winning teams. The Braves have Gavin Floyd making just his 2nd start and he will face T. Lincecum who has been solid vs the Braves and has allowed just 3 earned runs in his last 19 innings against them. After that it gets even tougher for Atlanta as the Giants have a Home bullpen with a 0.73 era. Look for the Giants to take the opener. On Monday we have perhaps the most Powerful card thus far this year. The 7* Rare NHL Playoff Game of the Year from a Huge Historical system that dates to the 1940/s. In the NBA we have a Pair of 5*Sides one has 5 systems, the other has 2 Huge 100% systems and a 100% Angle. In MLB we have a Pair of totals, one is a 5* From a rare 10-0 game 1 system, the other has a 28-4 Pitching angle. Jump on and Flatten your book big with the most powerful data in the industry tonight. For the free play. Take the San Francisco Giants. GC

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Diamond Dog Sports

Sides 40-35-0
+738

#907: Braves: +105 (3*)
Listed Pitchers: Floyd / Lincecum


Totals 29-40-2
-2,561

#903/904: Over Diamondbacks: 8.5 -110 (4.5*)
Listed Pitchers: Zimmermann / Collmenter

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Bkg sports

Texas -126

Under Atl/SF -115