5-20-14

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Game of the Day: Heat at Pacers


Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers (+2, 184)


The real Indiana Pacers are in the process of standing up, and the Miami Heat are going to need stand up right alongside. The Heat will attempt to draw even in the Eastern Conference finals when they visit the Indiana Pacers for Game 2 on Tuesday. Indiana limped through the last half of the regular season and the first two rounds of the playoffs but was clearly the dominant team in Game 1, leading wire-to-wire as Miami struggled to get stops.


The Pacers enjoyed their highest-scoring game of the postseason with the 107-96 Game 1 victory and got at least 15 points from all five starters. “It’s a good start to the series but it’s just a good start, that’s all it is,” Indiana coach Frank Vogel told reporters. “We’ve got to expect a great fight in Game 2.” The Heat lost for just the second time in the playoffs but remained unconcerned and confident moving forward. “They took care of business in Game 1, but we’ll figure it out for Game 2,” said LeBron James, who put up 25 points, 10 rebounds, five assists and three steals for Miami.


TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN


LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Heat as 2-point road faves. The line moved to -2.5 but has settled back at the original number. The total hasn't moved off 184.


INJURY REPORT: Pacers - F Evan Turner (Probable, illness), C Andrew Bynum (out for season).


WHAT THE CAPPERS SAY: "After losing in the postseason to Miami in 2012 and in 2013, securing home court advantage during the 2014 Eastern Conference Playoffs was pretty important to Indiana. So far though, home court hasn't been much of an advantage for the Pacers after they lost Game 1 in each of their first two series this year. Indiana looked sharp in Game 1 vs. Miami though and would not even need the 2.5 points it was afforded, winning outright handily. The Heat are once again favoured by 2.5 in Game 2. All eyes are now on LeBron James and coach Eric Spolestra, who will need to make some quick adjustments or face an 0-2 hole for the first time in the Eastern Conference Finals." - Covers Experts' Nick Parsons


ABOUT THE HEAT: Miami stuck with the small lineup that served it well in the semifinals instead of trying to match Indiana’s bigger starters. That plan left center Chris Bosh along the perimeter, where he went 0-of-5 from 3-point range and finished with just nine points, and put him on bruising Roy Hibbert defensively. “That’s probably us at our worst defensively,” coach Eric Spoelstra told reporters. “You have to give (the Pacers) the credit. … It’s a matchup collectively that we have to figure out. That’s the whole point of competition.” The Heat got a strong performance from guard Dwyane Wade, who scored a game-high 27 points on 12-of-18 shooting.


ABOUT THE PACERS: Indiana made it a goal at the beginning of the season to earn homecourt advantage over Miami and made sure it would not suffer a letdown at home. The Pacers, who dropped Game 1 at home in each of the two previous rounds, scored the first seven points and never trailed in Game 1, keeping the advantage at double figures for most of the fourth quarter. “We’re just being aggressive off the bounce, trying to attack, force help and then share it,” Vogel said. “It’s a pretty simple plan. It’s not always easiest to execute, but I thought our guys executed pretty well offensively.” Paul George led with 24 points and C.J. Watson provided key minutes off the bench.


TRENDS:


* Home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.
* Heat are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
* Over is 4-0 in Heat last four overall.
* Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. NBA Southeast.


COVERS CONSENSUS: Just over 67 percent of wagers on Covers Consensus are on the Miami Heat.

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Maddux

Miami Heat

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Heat/Pacers #2 – The Game Inside the Game
By DAVID MALINSKY


The series opener at Indiana on Sunday fell 14 points from the spread, and 21 points from the total. When that happens it means adjustments galore – not just for the players and coaches, but for those in the betting marketplace that have to define an unexpected result. And for the serious handicapper, that is when the real fun begins.


Let’s start with the most important base – the Pacers looked relaxed, confident and in rhythm throughout. It was 7-0 after 100 seconds and the Heat never got closer than three; in the second half they only got as close as eight. So where in the hell does that come from for a team that struggled so mightily after the All Star break, and was vulnerable through the first two playoff rounds vs. the mediocre challenges of the Hawks and Wizards? There may be a logical answer.


After bowing out to the Heat in six games two years ago, and then seven last spring, the focus on the Indiana season was two-fold: 1. Learn what it takes to beat Miami; and 2. Get the home court advantage for a rematch. The goals were reached – they are now 3-2 SU vs. their nemesis this season, and they indeed did grab the home court. But could so much attention have been focused on those particular challenges that they failed to develop as a team in other ways? That can certainly explain both the physical and mental lapses that have plagued them during a somewhat-myopic journey.


An offense that lacked direction for several months played at an extreme comfort level on Sunday – it was 120.6 PP100, their best total of the playoffs, and #5 through 96 games this season. All five starters had at least 15 points, and they had nearly twice as many assists (23) as turnovers (12). They got to the FT line for 37 attempts, and there were no end-game Miami fouls adding to that. Just imagine the offensive efficiency if they had not gone 0-4 from the field over the final 1:30.


That makes an intriguing base to work from. Their focus had been on the Heat for so long that the Pacers really did lose their path. But once back inside of their main mission so many elements clicked, including Frank Vogel’s rotation – Luis Scola and Earl Watson were the only ones that played more than 9:17 off the bench. What Indiana did right played a more important part of the outcome falling so far off of the projections than what Miami did wrong.


The Heat shot 51.3 percent, and only had 11 turnovers. That 6-23 from 3-point range is subpar, but perhaps the 0-5 from Chris Bosh was inevitable, after he had opened the playoffs at 17-35 beyond the arc (following a 33.9 percent regular season). They will not do all that much better than 52 points on 23-36 from LeBron James and Dwayne Wade, but the fact that those two only got to the line for five FT attempts speaks volumes about Roy Hibbert’s presence near the basket. That is among the most important storylines of this series.


Where Miami will get better is on defense, where the Heat got spread out by deft Indiana spacing. And there should be no doubts about their poise and resolve to make adjustments – in the James era they are 13-6 SU and 12-7 ATS off of a playoff loss, beating the spread by 48 points over those 19 games. But to win this game they are genuinely going to have to “win” it – Indiana does not leave many matchup openings for them to exploit. And when seeing how badly the betting markets were at calling Game #1 consider this – Miami has gone 1-7 SU on this court the past two seasons, with four of the defeats in double figures, and has lost the last five in a row. Yet there could be -3’s showing up by tipoff.


In terms of the Total, do not expect these teams to shoot anywhere near a combined 51.4 percent again. Anticipate the Heat doing a better job with the X’s and O’s on defense, and also for more minutes from their bigger lineup, which also slows the tempo. Meanwhile Indiana was #1 in defensive efficiency for a good reason, finishing more than a full PP100 lower than any other team. But in terms of whether the adjustment up to 184 brings the value to play Under there is a caution – because Sunday’s game was not competitive, there were no scramble points down the stretch. This one should be closer, which brings the potential for those shenanigans to emerge.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Cueto is 4-0, 0.88 in his last six starts.
-- DeSclafani won his first MLB start, allowing two runs in six IP.
-- Beckett is 1-0, 1.38 in his last two starts.
-- Wainwright is 5-1, 2.34 in his last seven starts. Arroyo is 3-0, 0.77 in his last three starts.
-- Bumgarner is 3-0, 2.84 in his last three starts.

-- Verlander is 5-1, 3.91 in his last seven starts.
-- Pomeranz is 2-0, 0.00 in two starts, throwing five innings each in two home starts. Odorizzi is 1-0, 0.00 (11 IP) in his last two starts.
-- Doubront is 1-0, 1.54 in his last couple starts. Happ is 2-1, 3.38 in his three starts this season.
-- Ventura has a 2.27 RA in his last five starts. Rienzo is 3-0, 4.60 in five starts this season.
-- Iwakuma is 2-0, 1.59 in three starts this season.

-- Tanaka is 5-0, 1.84 in his last six starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Fister is 0-1, 6.35 in two starts this season.
-- Burnett is 0-2, 8.18 in his last two starts.
-- Teheran is 0-2, 4.42 in his last three starts. Gallardo is 0-2, 5.50 in his last three outings.
-- Montero lost his MLB debut, allowing three runs in six IP.
-- Morales is 0-2, 8.44 in his last three starts.

-- Bauer allowed two runs in six IP in his only '14 start, April 9.
-- Lewis is 1-2, 7.54 in his three home starts.
-- Feldman is 0-1, 5.82 in his last three starts. Skaggs is 1-1, 7.56 in his last three outings.

-- Liriano is 0-3, 5.27 in his last eight starts. Gonzalez is 0-2, 4.63 in his last four starts.
-- Hammel is 0-1, 4.91 in his last three starts.
-- Kennedy is 0-2, 4.50 in his last three starts. Former Padre Correia is 1-3, 9.00 in his last four starts.


Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Cueto 1-9; Fister 1-2
-- Burnett 2-9; DeSclafani 0-1
-- Gallardo 2-9; Teheran 2-9
-- Beckett 1-7; Montero 0-1
-- Arroyo 3-8; Wainwright 2-9
-- Bumgarner 2-9; Morales 2-8

-- Verlander 2-9; Bauer 1-1
-- Pomeranz 0-2; Odorizzi 0-8
-- Happ 0-3; Doubront 2-8
-- Iwakuma 0-3; Lewis 2-6
-- Rienzo 2-5; Ventura 2-8
-- Feldman 1-6; Skaggs 4-7

-- Gonzalez 1-7; Liriano 3-9
-- Tanaka 2-8; Hammel 1-8
-- Correia 2-8; Kennedy 2-9

Totals
-- Under is 8-4 in Cincinnati's last twelve road games.
-- Six of last eight Dodger games went over the total.
-- Under is 12-3-1 in last sixteen Atlanta home games.
-- Seven of last nine Miami games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Arizona games stayed under total.
-- Seven of last ten Colorado home games went over.

-- Over is 8-1-2 in last 11 Cleveland games. Nine of last twelve Detroit games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Oakland games went over the total.
-- Last eight games at Fenway Park stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Texas home games stayed under total.
--Six of last seven White Sox games went over; eight of last 11 KC games went under the total. .
-- Under is 5-1-1 in Angels' last seven games. Four of last five Houston games went over the total.

-- Last five Pittsburgh games stayed under the total.
-- Last five games at Wrigley Field stayed under total.
-- Four of last five games at Petco Park went over.

Hot teams
-- Braves won five of their last six home games.
-- Marlins won 11 of their last 12 home games.
-- Cardinals won four of their last five games. Arizona won four of its last five road games.
-- Colorado won 12 of its last 16 home games. Giants won eight of last eleven road games.

-- Detroit won 11 of its last 12 road games.
-- Blue Jays won five of their last six road games.
-- Oakland won nine of its last ten games.
-- Angels won seven of their last ten games. Astros won five of their last six.

-- Bronx Bombers won five of last seven away games.
-- San Diego won six of its last nine games. Twins won five of last seven.

Cold teams
-- Reds lost seven of their last nine road games. Washington is 6-9 in its last 15 games.
-- Mets lost four of their last five games. Dodgers lost five of their last seven road games.
-- Phillies lost eight of their last twelve games.
-- Brewers lost seven of their last nine road games.

-- Cleveland lost five of its last seven games.
-- Tampa Bay lost seven of last eight home games.
-- Red Sox lost five of their last six games.
-- Kansas City is 4-7 in its last eleven home games. White Sox lost six of their last nine games.
-- Mariners lost four of their last five games. Texas lost six of last eight.

-- Pittsburgh lost five of its last seven games. Orioles lost six of last eight.
-- Cubs lost ten of their last fourteen games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's MLB Picks

Cincinnati at Washington

After taking the series opener in 15 innings (4-3) last night, Cincinnati comes into Game 2 with a 4-0 record in Johnny Cueto's last 4 starts against the Nationals. Cincinnati is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Reds favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-115). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, MAY 20 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: Cincinnati at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cueto) 15.742; Washington (Fister) 14.338 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-115); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-115); Under

Game 903-904: Philadelphia at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Burnett) 16.353; Miami (Desclalfani) 15.561 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Miami (-115); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-105); Over

Game 905-906: Milwaukee at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.759; Atlanta (Teheran) 14.622 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-145); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+135); Over

Game 907-908: LA Dodgers at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Beckett) 16.512; NY Mets (Montero) 15.112 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-135); 7 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-135); Under

Game 909-910: Arizona at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Arroyo) 15.357; St. Louis (Wainwright) 14.228 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 8 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-200); 7 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+170); Over

Game 911-912: San Francisco at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Bumgarner) 16.525; Colorado (Morales) 15.144 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-130); 10 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-130); Under

Game 913-914: Detroit at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 16.412; Cleveland (Bauer) 14.468 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2; 7 Vegas Line: Detroit (-155); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-155); Under

Game 915-916: Oakland at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Pomeranz) 14.263; Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) 15.307 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Oakland (-120); 8 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+100); Over

Game 917-918: Toronto at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Happ) 14.626; Boston (Doubront) 15.980 Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Boston (-145); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-145); Under

Game 919-920: Seattle at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Iwakuma) 14.245; Texas (Lewis) 15.140 Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 10 Vegas Line: Seattle (-115); 9 Dunkel Pick: Texas (-105); Over

Game 921-922: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Rienzo) 15.889; Kansas City (Ventura) 15.067 Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Kansas City (-210); 8 Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+185); Over

Game 923-924: Houston at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Feldman) 14.889; LA Angels (Skaggs) 16.403 Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: LA Angels (-170); 8 Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-170); Under

Game 925-926: Baltimore at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Gonzalez) 16.000; Pittsburgh (Liriano) 14.956 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-140); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+120); Over

Game 927-928: NY Yankees at Chicago Cubs (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Tanaka) 16.511; Cubs (Hammel) 15.011 Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-165); No Run Total Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-165); N/A

Game 929-930: Minnesota at San Diego (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Correia) 15.249; San Diego (Kennedy) 14.311 Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 8 Vegas Line: San Diego (-175); 7 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+155); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's NBA Picks

Miami at Indiana

The Heat look to bounce back from their 107-96 loss in Game 1 as they face a Pacers team that is 3-18 ATS in its last 21 games after scoring 100 points or more in the previous game. Miami is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-2 1/2). Here are all of today's playoff picks.

TUESDAY, MAY 20 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 505-506: Miami at Indiana (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami 126.284; Indiana 121.360 Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 5; 190 Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 2 1/2; 184 Dunkel Pick: Miami (-2 1/2); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

NBA | MIAMI at INDIANA
Play Against - Home underdogs (INDIANA) poor pressure defensive team - forcing <=14 turnovers/game, on Tuesday nights
83-43 over the last 5 seasons. ( 65.9% | 35.7 units )
16-13 this year. ( 55.2% | 1.7 units )

NBA | MIAMI at INDIANA
Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (MIAMI) after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, on Tuesday nights
101-27 over the last 5 seasons. ( 78.9% | 46.9 units )
25-9 this year. ( 73.5% | 6.1 units )

NBA | MIAMI at INDIANA
Play Under - Any team vs. the 1rst half line as a # 2 seed in the playoffs, in the conference finals
69-36 since 1997. ( 65.7% | 29.4 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fact or Fiction
By Mike Rose

And then there were four… The conference finals are underway, and today, we're going to be looking at some of what is the truth and some of what is a lie about the four teams which are left standing.

FACT

The Spurs are the deserving favorites to win it all: It's all really coming together for the Spurs. They are playing against a scrambling Oklahoma City team in the Western Conference Finals, and they have had a history of finishing matters off when they smell blood in the water against good teams. On top of that, we just aren't all that sure that either of these teams in the East are anywhere near as good as they were in the regular season. Things are setting up well for San Antonio now that it looks like it will be the surviving team in the brutal West.

Sticking with Roy Hibbert will pay off for Indiana: There are going to be games where Hibbert is off, and we have just come to accept the fact that he is one of the most inconsistent players on the planet at the moment. He'll inevitably have one of those games in this series where he is just completely MIA, and the Heat will win that one going away. But we were right at the start of the postseason when we said that Hibbert was the only shot that the Pacers had, and though it hasn't been pretty sticking with him, the Pacers are just three wins away from the NBA Finals.

The Heat have to find an answer for David West: Sort of piggybacking off of what was just said, the Heat have no answers whatsoever for West and the rest of the size for the Pacers. When LeBron James is guarding West, Paul George has a mismatch. When Shane Battier is guarding West, there's a tremendous amount of muscle in the post for Indiana. Many said that the bugaboo in this series for Miami was its lack of size, and through one game, that's surely playing out.

FICTION

The Pacers are set for a collapse of epic proportions: We've all been waiting for this all postseason long. The Atlanta Hawks should have had the Pacers down and out, but in truth, the Dallas Mavericks were just as close to eliminating San Antonio. The Wizards had every shot to put the Pacers down early as well. Now, most expected the Heat to sweep Indiana. And look what we have here… Maybe it really did just take getting interested for Indiana to wake up. This is the series that the Pacers wanted all along, and now that it is here, they look like they're going to give Miami everything it can handle.

The Serge Ibaka injury spells the end for Oklahoma City: It's very possible that the Thunder are going to end up losing to the Spurs, but we don't think it's going to be because of Ibaka not being in the lineup. The fact of the matter is that Oklahoma City is probably a better offensive team with Nick Collison out there instead, and don't be stunned if we see an oddball lineup out there with both Reggie Jackson and Russell Westbrook on the court at the same time, too. It could be a matchup which gives the Spurs all sorts of trouble.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Heat look to rebound after Game 1 loss

INDIANAPOLIS (AP) - LeBron James is ready to help the Miami Heat get even against the Indiana Pacers.

After spending Sunday night and Monday morning sifting through Sunday's Game 1 loss, the Heat are ready to start over in Game 2 on Tuesday night.

The changes start with James.

''My approach is the same every game, try to put pressure on the defense, try to get to the free-throw line to help us win,'' James said. ''I got to the rim, I got my shots going, but I've got to do a little more, too.''

While Heat coach Erik Spoelstra acknowledged the tape was every bit as bad as it looked in person, he didn't drop any hints about what might change.

To the Pacers, that means one thing: Expect James to do even more than he usually does. Nobody understands that better than Paul George.

Over the past two years, these teams have met 15 times with George has usually drawing the seemingly impossible task of defending James.

He's seen it happen up close - as James got past him for the winning shot in Game 1 of last year's conference finals - and from afar, such as last week when James almost single-handedly sent Miami past Brooklyn with 49 points in Game 4.

''He (James) will shoulder everything. I think he's going to be much more aggressive with the ball,'' George said.

''I think he's going to be looking to make more plays, looking to shoot more shots and really looking to get guys going. It's going to be a tough night for me, but that's part of the league.''

James' ability to do it all is a big reason the Heat haven't lost back-to-back playoff games since the 2012 conference finals against Boston, a span of 39 postseason games, though that wasn't the focus Monday.

The Pacers embrace the challenge of trying to take a 2-0 lead.

If they can protect their home court Tuesday, they'll have a 2-0 lead over the two-time defending champs when the series shifts to Miami for Games 3 and 4.

Miami has a lot to work on.

In Game 1, the Heat made just 6 of 23 3-pointers, allowed the Pacers to shoot 51.5 percent from the field, grabbed just four offensive rebounds and sent the Pacers to the free-throw line 37 times.

All-Star center Roy Hibbert, who had struggled from February through April before waking up against Washington, continued to hurt the Heat inside as he did last year.

The Heat were so bad, they never led and never even had a chance to tie the score after the first 40 seconds.

''We don't really care about what's happened in the past,'' Spoelstra said. ''We understand the urgency of a response for tomorrow night.''

Obviously, James wants to make sure there's no repeat Tuesday night.

''We cleaned a lot of things up today and we're ready for tomorrow,'' James said. ''You just go in with the mindset that it's a must-win and we go at it tomorrow.''

What else can the Heat do?

Spoelstra may have provided a glimpse into one possible adjustment when he replaced Shane Battier with Udonis Haslem to start the second half. That change was intended to give Miami more heft inside against Hibbert, David West and the rest of Indiana's big bodies.

Spoelstra wouldn't say whether he would replace Battier with Haslem in the starting lineup or whether center Greg Oden might be activated in Game 2.

Miami, too, is trying to defy recent history.

The home team has eight straight and 13 of the past 15 in this rivalry, which is one reason the Pacers placed such great emphasis on earning the No. 1 seed.

But George knows it's going to take a lot more than home-court advantage to contend with James & Co. after a loss.

''We know we're playing against the champions, the two-time champions,'' George said.

''We know they're going to come out and make adjustments. Everything we did (Sunday) has got to be that much more in Game 2 in order for us to move on.''

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pacers seek 2-0 series lead Tuesday vs. Heat
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox

MIAMI HEAT (62-30) at INDIANA PACERS (65-31)

NBA Playoffs – Eastern Conference Finals
Game 2 - Indiana leads series 1-0
Tip-off: Tuesday, 8:35 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -2.5, Total: 184

The Heat look to even up the Eastern Conference Finals in Tuesday's Game 2 to a Pacers team that had complete control of the series opener right from the opening tip.

Indiana got off to an early start on Sunday, led by double-digits at halftime and never looked back in a 107-96 victory as a 1.5-point underdog in the contest. Although Miami made a strong 51% FG in the loss, the club hit just 26% threes (6-of-23) and 67% FT (10-of-15), which was much worse than the 52% FG, 42% threes (8-of-19) and 78% FT (29-of-37) from its opponent. The Pacers also dominated the glass with a 38-29 rebounding advantage, while holding the Heat to only four offensive boards. With Sunday's outcome, Indiana is now 9-4 SU and 8-5 ATS over the past three seasons when hosting Miami. Overall during this timeframe, the Heat hold a 14-11 SU advantage, while the Pacers are 13-12 ATS in those contests. These teams are very evenly matched and play each other extremely tough nearly every time they step on the floor. Both teams have positive betting trends for Game 2, as over the past two seasons, Miami is 16-5 ATS (76%) in road games after pulling down five or less offensive rebounds, and is also 26-11 ATS (70%) revenging a same-season loss. However, Indiana is up against a team that is 9-18 ATS (33%) after two or more consecutive overs this season. The Pacers also happen to be 7-1 ATS over the past three seasons after two straight games where they made at least 50% of their shots. The only significant injury for either team is Indiana reserve SG Evan Turner, who missed Game 1 with strep throat, but he is expected to play on Tuesday.

The Heat have not been a great road team this season at 25-21 SU (22-22-2 ATS), and although they seemed unfazed by losing home-court advantage during the regular season, the result of Game 1 will surely have them panicking at least a little. Miami came out and looked rather flat from the start, never having control of the game. Outside of SF LeBron James (29.5 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 4.7 APG, 1.8 SPG in playoffs) and SG Dwyane Wade (18.8 PPG, 4.0 APG, 3.3 RPG, 1.2 SPG in playoffs), the Heat got very little help from their remaining starters. Both stars had nearly identical offensive games with James scoring 25 points on 11-of-18 FG and Wade pouring in a game-high 27 points on 12-of-18 FG, but finished with game ratings of minus-13 and minus-9, respectively. James was at his best when he was attacking the rim, but the Pacers did a good job of collapsing and forcing the other Heat members to beat them. James will need to be more aggressive and might have to force the agenda just to get himself some more shot attempts in Game 2. Wade scored a lot of his points in garbage time, but he did look solid offensively. He had trouble on the other side of the ball with his matchup with Lance Stephenson. Miami will have little to no chance if PF Chris Bosh (14.0 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 1.4 BPG in playoffs) is not giving them anything offensively. Bosh was miserable all Game 1, finishing with just nine points (4-of-12 FG, 0-of-5 threes), two rebounds and a game-worst rating of minus-16. Miami can’t afford to have its only true big man struggling to rebound like Bosh did, and he also is going to need to knock down his open jumpers. PF Chris Andersen (6.4 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.4 BPG in playoffs) played some excellent minutes on Sunday, finishing with 14 points (6-of-7 FG), four rebounds and two blocks in 19 minutes. Andersen gave the Heat everything that Bosh didn’t on the defensive end and the glass. He will need to continue to bring some energy to Miami if they are going to tie up this series. SG Ray Allen (9.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG in playoffs) also contributed big minutes off the bench with 12 points, five boards and four assists, which helped make up for the horrible game that starting PG Mario Chalmers (9.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG in playoffs) had in Game 1. In 37 underwhelming minutes, Chalmers scored just six points (2-of-9 FG, 1-of-4 threes) with four fouls and a minus-15 rating. He did run the offense effectively though with five assists and zero turnovers.

The Pacers have waited all season to play the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals, and in Game 1 they looked like a team that is ready to reach the NBA Finals with all five starters scoring at least 15 points and posting a double-digit rating. Now they must bring the same focus to Game 2 to maintain home-court advantage. SG Lance Stephenson (13.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 4.1 APG in playoffs) really set the pace for Indiana on Sunday, finishing with 17 points (8-of-12 FG), eight assists and four rebounds in 41 minutes. Stephenson was on fire shooting the ball and he also played excellent defensively. SF Paul George (22.1 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 4.0 APG, 2.2 SPG in playoffs) was also superb on both ends of the floor for the Pacers. George finished with 24 points (7-of-13 FG, 3-of-6 threes), seven assists and four rebounds while also playing some pesky defense against LeBron James. C Roy Hibbert (9.3 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 1.6 BPG in playoffs) looked more like the guy that was an All-Star in the Eastern Conference than the player who was a liability on the court towards the end of the season. The big man finished with 19 points (5-of-13 FG, 9-of-13 FT), nine rebounds, three assists and a game-best +19 rating in 39 minutes of play. If Hibbert can continue to give the Pacers a source of low-post scoring, Miami will struggle in the series as it does not have the size to stop Indiana inside. PF David West (14.9 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 4.3 APG in playoffs) has been playing out of his mind the past two games for Indiana. After scoring 29 points in the closeout win over the Wizards, West had 19 points (8-of-11 FG), seven rebounds and three assists in Game 1 against the Heat. West has been shooting very well from mid-range and scoring rather easily in the post due to the Heat’s lack of size. If West can continue scoring like he has, the Pacers could be advancing to the NBA Finals.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

MLB | BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH
Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (BALTIMORE) after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team
94-67 since 1997. ( 58.4% | 45.3 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH
BALTIMORE is 11-3 (+10.5 Units) against the money line in Road games in night games this season.
The average score was: BALTIMORE (5.1) , OPPONENT (3.4)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CAPPERS ACCESS

Heat -2.5
Tigers (RL)-1.5 (+110)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Tuesday, May 20

Pacers shot 52% in Game 1, outscored Heat 29-10 on foul line, putting six in double figures. Home side won all five Miami-Indiana games this season; Heat lost last five visits to Indiana by 7-6-1-12-11 points. Six of last eight series games went over the total. Miami is 8-3 in playoffs, 3-2 on road; they're 6-5 as favorite in playoffs. Indiana is 9-5 in playoffs, 5-0 vs spread when they are getting points. Under is 29-20 in Pacers' home games this season.

Over is 44-30 in playoffs this season.
Favorites are 25-49 in playoffs this season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RIVER CITY SHARPS

Really good pitching match up tonight as the Brewers send their ace Yovani Gallardo (2-2, 3.07 ERA) to the mound against the Braves and Julio Teheran (2-3, 2.20 ERA) This is actually a rematch of a game on Opening Day, where the Brewers won a 2-0 decision. Gallardo has pitched pretty well throughout the early part of the season, but isn’t getting much run support from his team. That may improve now with the return of Carlos Gomez to the Milwaukee lineup. Teheran has had similar tough luck with run support and the Braves have actually scored less than two runs in four of Teheran’s starts. The Brewers have cooled off as they dropped two of three games in Chicago against the Cubs and then lost the series opener to the Braves on Monday night. We expect this one to be a tight game, but think the Brewers get themselves back to winning ways tonight with Gallardo throwing a gem. The Sharps say…
3 UNITS – MILWAUKEE BREWERS (+125)