5-25-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BOB BALFE

NBA
SAN ANTONIO SPURS +2.5

MLB
CHICAGO CUBS ML+130 over Padres

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CHASE DIAMOND

10* NBA PERFECT TOTAL
San Antonio vs. Oklahoma City
UNDER 209

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River city sharps

3 units - milwaukee brewers (-110)

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Game 3 - Spurs at Thunder
By Kevin Rogers

The favorites are starting to come around in the conference finals with three straight victories and covers following Miami’s blowout of Indiana on Saturday night. The Spurs routed the Thunder in the first two games of the Western Conference Finals at home as the series shifts to Oklahoma City for a pivotal Game 3 with the Thunder in desperate need of a win.

San Antonio opened things up in the third quarter of a back-and-forth Game 1 to capture the series opener, 122-105 to cash as six-point favorites. However, the Spurs put away the Thunder in Game 2 by halftime in a 112-77 thrashing to take a 2-0 series edge. In Game 2, San Antonio outscored Oklahoma City, 34-18 in the second quarter to grab a 14-point halftime lead, then limited the Thunder to just 33 points in the second half for their seventh straight win at the AT&T Center.

The number one thing to point to for OKC’s 2-0 series hole is the absence of forward Serge Ibaka, who missed the first two games with a calf injury and is questionable for the remainder of the series. The Spurs are scoring at will in the paint, putting up 66 points in the series opener and 54 in Game 2. Danny Green lit up the Thunder for seven three-pointers in Game 2, while the Thunder converted just 2-of-20 shots from downtown on Wednesday night.

The Thunder beat the Spurs four times in the regular season and will look for some sort of magic heading back to Chesapeake Energy Arena for the next two games to save their season. OKC owns a 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS record at home in the playoffs, while allowing at least 100 points in each of the last six home contests (two games went to overtime). The Spurs have lost seven straight visits to Oklahoma City, while failing to cover each time, all in the role of an underdog. The last time Gregg Popovich’s team won on the road in this series came on March 16, 2012.

Many fans will remember the last time the Thunder trailed the Spurs, 2-0 in the Western Conference Finals and it came in 2012. Oklahoma City stormed back to win four straight games and eliminate San Antonio before falling to Miami in five games of the NBA Finals. How rare was it that San Antonio lost a game much less a series when taking a 2-0 edge? Since 2012, the Spurs have grabbed a 2-0 series lead six times and won Game 3 five times. The lone loss came in Game 3 at Oklahoma City, 102-82 as four-point underdogs.

VegasInsider.com’s Chris David points to the fact the Spurs haven’t been great in the underdog role this season, “I was a little surprised to see San Antonio listed as an underdog in Game 3 due to the outcomes in the first two games and the fact that the Spurs have been receiving a ton of public action in the playoffs. However, it’s very apparent that the oddsmakers know how to gauge San Antonio this season. The Spurs have been underdogs 11 times, once in the playoffs, and they’ve produced a pedestrian 6-5 record in this role. You should make a note that two of those five losses came against the Thunder.”

David shines a light on San Antonio’s offensive struggles when it hits the road against its rival, “Oklahoma City should be confident in Game 3 based on its head-to-head history at home against San Antonio. Including the two wins this regular season, the Thunder have won seven straight meetings versus the Spurs from Chesapeake Energy Arena. What’s even more impressive during this run is that the Spurs have been held under 100 six times and under 90 three times. For whatever reason, the San Antonio offense hasn’t found a way to click at this venue.”

Obviously, the Thunder needs to get major production from its two stars in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, who combined to shoot just 13-of-40 from the floor for 30 points in Game 2. In the last meeting at Chesapeake Energy Arena in early April, Durant and Westbrook put up 55 points between them as the Thunder snapped San Antonio’s 19-game winning streak, 106-94 as three-point favorites.

From the totals standpoint, David mentions that the number slightly dropping after OKC’s struggles on Wednesday, “Total bettors are starting a number hovering around 208 points for Game 3, which is a tad lower than the first two games (209, 210) in this series. OKC looked dreadful offensively in Game 2 and it’s rare to see this club have poor offensive numbers in back-to-back games. In their seven home playoff games, the Thunder have scored 100-plus in six of them and 99 in the other. Rather than look at the ‘over’ for the game, I believe ‘over’ in Oklahoma City’s team total has tremendous value, which is 105½ points.”

The Thunder opened as 2½-point favorites, with the number dropping to two at several books. The game tips off at 8:30 PM EST and can be seen on TNT.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA playoffs

Pacers shot 52% in Game 1, outscored Heat 29-10 on foul line, putting six in double figures; they shot 40% in Game 2, were outscored 11-10 on foul line- they led 75-72 in 4th quarter, before Heat went on decisive run to even series. Home side won nine of last ten Miami-Indiana games, as Pacers lost seven of last eight visits here. Six of last nine series games went over the total. Miami is 9-3 in playoffs, 5-1 at home; they're 7-5 as favorite in playoffs. Indiana is 9-6 in playoffs, 5-1 vs spread when they are getting points. Five of last seven Indiana games stayed under. George better produce more than 4-16 from floor he put up in Game 2.

Over is 44-32 in playoffs this season.
Favorites are 27-49 in playoffs this season.

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Baseball Crusher
Chicago Cubs +131 over San Diego Padres
(System Record: 31-0, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 31-23

Hockey Crusher
Montreal Canadiens + New York Rangers UNDER 5
(Playoff Record: system 20-2: overall 20-13, lost last 4 games)
(Regular Season Record: 91-4)
Overall Record: 111-87-2

Basketball Crusher
San Antonio Spurs +2.5 over OKC
(Playoff Record: 15-13-3, won last game)
(Regular Season Record: 78-8)
Overall Record: 93-98-8

Soccer Crusher
Figueirense + Goias OVER 2
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 579-21, won last 5 games)
Overall Record: 579-483-84

Here are the rest of his baseball, hockey and basketball plays for today...


Baseball
Los Angeles Angels -160 over Kansas City Royals
Tampa Bay Rays -124 over Boston Red Sox
Cleveland Indians +110 over Baltimore Orioles


Hockey
New York Rangers -170 over Montreal Canadians


Basketball
San Antonio Spurs + OKC OVER 208.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gordon24

$300 MLB Play - Orioles-115

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Hondo

Indians

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Sunday's MLB betting cheat sheet: Rienzo looks to pad money lead
By JASON LOGAN

Here's a comprehensive look at betting notes for Sunday's major league games:

Boston Massacre

The Boston Red Sox lost their ninth straight game Saturday, falling 6-5 in 15 innings to the Tampa Bay Rays (-162). The Red Sox, who rank last in the majors in money lost at $1,472, enter Sunday's series finale at Tropicana Field as a +115 underdog against the Rays' Jake Odorizzi.

Andre the Giant

Keep an eye on Chicago White Sox starter Andre Rienzo, who will look to continue his hot start Sunday against Masahiro Tanaka and the New York Yankees (-170, 7.5). Rienzo leads the league in money earned at $890 but will be in tough against Tanaka (6-1, 2.39 ERA, 73 strikeouts in 64 innings).

Flawed Favorite

The San Diego Padres (-106) dropped a 3-2 decision to the visiting Chicago Cubs on Saturday to fall to 1-4 in their last five games as a favorite. The Padres hope that trend doesn't continue as they enter as a -141 fave in Sunday's series finale.

Pitching Notes

* Houston Astros hurler Dallas Keuchel is a perfect 4-0 in his last four starts as an underdog of +150 or greater, including an 8 2/3-inning gem en route to a 5-2 win over the Los Angeles Angels as a +174 'dog last time out. Keuchel is installed at +150 for Sunday's game against host Seatttle.

* Arizona right-hander Bronson Arroyo will welcome the midday sun as he faces the New York Mets (-102, 7.5) in the opener of a doubleheader. Arroyo has a 2.00 ERA and one homer allowed in 18 afternoon innings compared to a 5.65 ERA and six longballs surrendered in 36 2/3 innings at night.

Hitting Notes

* Colorado shortstop Troy Tulowitzki belted his 14th home run of the season as the Rockies (+136) earned a 3-1 win over the Atlanta Braves on Saturday. Colorado is 10-3 S/U and 8-4-1 O/U when Tulowitzki hits at least one homer entering Sunday's game against the Braves (-163, 7.5).

* Texas rookie infielder Rougned Odor drove in a career-best five runs to lead the Rangers (+155) to a 12-2 rout of the Detroit Tigers on Saturday. Odor is hitting a respectable .278 in 12 career games, during which Texas is 4-8 S/U and 4-6-2 O/U.

Totals Streak

Chicago Cubs (1-6 O/U): The Chicago pitching staff has been rolling of late, allowing two runs or fewer in five of its last seven games - all victories. Take out an 11-1 drubbing at the hands of the Padres on Friday, and the Cubs have had one of the league's best pitching lines over the past week.

Prop of the Day

The Colorado Rockies are longshots to beat the Braves by four or more runs (+700). The Rockies boast the MLB's top ranked offense with their last 10 wins coming by an average of 4.8 runs per game including five games won by six or more runs.

Injury Notes

* Colorado outfielder Carlos Gonzalez is expected to return to the lineup Sunday after being out since Wednesday with inflammation in his left index finger. The Rockies were 1-1 SU, 0-2 O/U and +$36 in his absence, and he may miss additional games here and there as he continues to recover.

* Washington Nationals first baseman Adam LaRoche (quad) has been activated from the 15-day DL and will return to the lineup Sunday against host Pittsburgh (-120, 7). Washington went 5-8 S/U, 5-5-3 O/U and -$499 with LaRoche out of action.

Weather Watch

* Fans at U.S. Cellular Field will see wind blowing in from left field at 7 mph for Sunday's game between the White Sox and Yankees. Teams combined to average 7.87 runs and 2.12 homers in eight games under similar wind conditions in 2013 - slightly below the stadium averages.

Umpire Note of the Day

Under is 10-1 in umpire Doug Eddings' previous 11 games behind home plate. Eddings will call the balls and strikes for Sunday afternoon's showdown between host Miami (+104, 8) and Milwaukee.

** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 2:05 a.m. ET Sunday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DENVER MONEY

MLB Totals
Cleveland @ Baltimore – Under 9 -120
Milwaukee @ Miami – Under 8 -110

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MLB

New York Yankees at Chicago White Sox

New York Yankees off a come from behind extra inning victory vs. White Sox Saturday try to even the four game series sending Masahiro Tanaka to the mound. The hurler brings a 6-1 record, 2.39 ERA over nine starts (7-2 TSR). Pale Hose looking to get back in the win column count on Andre Rienzo sporting a perfect 4-0 record, 4.00 ERA over six starts (6-0 TSR). New York has been a terrible play for bettors against the White Sox. Despite yesterday's win the Yankees remain an atrocious 1-8 on the South Side of Chicago. Given those number and knowing Yankees are 0-2 as a road favorite in the -$1.50 to -$1.70 range, White Sox 5-0 as an underdog of +$1.50 to +$2.00 w/Rienzo the boys from the South Side are worth a look.

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Sunday

Braves -165

Tigers/Rangers over 8.5

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Arthur Ralph Sports

Free Play Sun

Cards -140

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PAUL LEINER

100* Mets -110
100* Dodgers -115
50* Padres -145

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Brandon Lang

25 Dimes - San Antonio Spurs +2 1/2 visiting the Oklahoma City Thunder, 8:30 PM EST