5-26-14

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Gordon24

$300 MLB Play - Indians -105

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Mike Shuttlesworth

Texas Rangers -108 Triple Star

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HALL OF FAME PICKS / William Holloway

Toronto Blue Jays(-143)

Atlanta Braves(-128)

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Monday’s MLB betting cheat sheet: Samardzija seeks first win

Here’s a comprehensive look at betting notes for Monday’s major league games:

Getting Pushy

The Washington Nationals and Pittsburgh Pirates earned a push Sunday afternoon in a 5-2 Washington win. It was the second push of the series, giving both teams seven on the season – tied for second-most in the majors behind only the Atlanta Braves (nine).

Rays a Rare Underdog

The Tampa Bay Rays haven’t been an underdog against Toronto in their last 10 games, but find themselves a +133 longshot entering Monday’s series opener at the Rogers Centre. The teams split those 10 meetings, with the Jays taking two of three in their last encounter in Toronto.

Samardzija Seeking Runs

Chicago Cubs hurler Jeff Samardzija looks for his first win of the season Monday afternoon against the host San Francisco Giants (-135, 7). The Cubs have lost each of Samardzija’s last seven starts despite the ace right-hander allowing just eight earned runs over 47 innings in that span.

Pitching Notes

* Los Angeles Angels right-hander Tyler Skaggs enters Monday’s encounter with the host Seattle Mariners (+123, 7.5) ranked fifth in the majors in money earned ($709) and is 3-0 with a 1.57 ERA in three road starts. Skaggs has also been a strong Over play, going 7-2 O/U on the season.

* Baltimore Orioles righty Chris Tillman was shelled for eight runs in just one inning of work last time out for his first loss against the moneyline in five starts as an underdog so far in 2014. Tillman and the Orioles (+126, 8) open an interleague series in Milwaukee on Monday afternoon.

Hitting Notes

* Atlanta Braves slugger Evan Gattis swatted a pair of home runs in Sunday’s drubbing of the Rockies, giving him 10 for the season. Atlanta is 7-1 S/U and 2-5-1 O/U in games featuring at least one Gattis homer entering Monday’s interleague tilt with visiting Boston (+117, 7).

* New York Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter had a season-high four hits en route to a 7-1 triumph over the Chicago White Sox on Sunday. Jeter is heating up after a slow start and now has four multi-hit efforts in his last nine games; the Yankees are 2-2 S/U and 2-2 O/U in those contests.

Totals Streak

Colorado Rockies (0-5 O/U): The league’s most vaunted offense has fallen on tough times of late, scoring just six runs over its previous four games. The Rockies capped the subpar stretch with a 7-0 loss at the hands of the Atlanta Braves (-166) on Sunday afternoon.

Prop of the Day

The Giants are +120 underdogs to score the first run of the game against Samardzija and the Cubs, but have been strong in the early going all season. San Francisco leads the majors with a .322 first-inning batting average and have a league-high 38 runs in the opening frame.

Injury Notes

* Diamondbacks second baseman Aaron Hill left Sunday’s game against the New York Mets after fouling a ball off his ankle, and is considered questionable for Monday’s game against visiting San Diego (+110, 8.5). Arizona is 0-8 O/U in the last eight games Hill has played.

* Reds right-hander Mat Latos threw four innings in a rehab start Sunday as he continues his recovery from an elbow injury. Latos, who has yet to throw an inning for Cincinnati this season, went 20-12 against the moneyline and 15-16-1 O/U in 32 starts last year.

Weather Watch

* Turner Field will see wind blowing out to center field at 6 mph for the game between Atlanta and Boston. Teams averaged a paltry 5.5 runs over eight games under similar wind conditions in 2013, well below the stadium average of 7.46..

* Wind at AT&T Park will blow out to center field at 12 mph when the Giants entertain the Cubs. Teams averaged 1.4 home runs in 30 games with the wind blowing out to center at between 10 and 20 mph last season – slightly more than the stadium average of 1.35.

** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 9:05:a.m. ET Monday

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Hondo

Texas Rangers

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Philly Ross

2* Braves/Boston Over 7 runs

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SPORTS WAGERS

Boston @ ATLANTA
ATLANTA -1 +116 over Boston

The Red Sox losing streak is now at 10. Over that span they’ve hit .212 while scoring 26 lousy runs. 10 of those runs have occurred in the last two games with five of those coming in one inning on four hits, a hit batter and a walk. To make matters worse, Boston is now without Mike Napoli, which is one of the few offensive threats they had. Clay Buchholz has four dominant starts and four disaster starts in nine games started thus far. However, three of those disaster starts have all come in his last three starts in which he’s allowed 29 hits in 15 innings and failed to make it out of the fifth inning in two of those three. Buchholz has terrible surface stats, as he is 2-4 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.85 WHIP. Buchholz’s 5.77 xERA in May really isn’t much better. He has been a bit unlucky with a 40% hit rate and 68% strand rate but his problems have been much more than bad luck, as his 32% line drive rate over his last five starts will attest to.

After spending an entire offseason looking for a new home, Ervin Santana finally landed in the National League for the first time in his career. He's taking the NL by storm with a 4-2 record and a 3.42 ERA. Though it's too early to draw firm conclusions, Santana is making gains that are worth noting. Santana made huge strides limiting the walks in 2013 with a career-low and that improvement has carried over into this season. Santana's early strikeout rate spike in 2014 is a nice surprise and it's supported by a 13% swinging strike rate but years of average K’s casts doubt he can keep it up. Santana has a nifty BB/K split of 14/48 in 53 innings and he’s also 3-1 at home with an ERA of 3.14. Pitching matchup aside, Boston is a mentally dejected team that is swinging at everything and hitting nothing. Until they show us some life, we’ll continue to fade them and make no exception here.


Texas @ MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA/Texas over 9 +102

The Rangers are coming off a four-game set in Detroit in which they scored 35 runs and won three times. The top five guys in the batting order (Shin-Soo Choo, Elvis Andrus, Mitch Moorland, Adrian Beltre and Alex Rios) are all heating up at the same time and that spells big trouble for Kevin Correia. Skills don't get more consistent than Correia’s, as there's little variance in yearly xERA or stats. Unfortunately in his case, that's not a good thing. Correia has a 6.52 ERA and a 5.24 xERA. Over his last five starts his ERA was 7.61 and his xERA was 7.24. At home, Correia is 1-3 with an ERA of 7.62. Prior to his last start in San Diego, Correia was tagged for nine runs by the Red Sox. That was Boston’s last win. His last good month was in April of 2013 and it's as if someone unplugged Correia's good luck machine on May 1, 2013. Since then, on a month-to-month basis, he's had a hit rate no less than 32%, strand rates twice in the 60% range and 4 months of over 20% HR/F’s. Correia’s pitch-to-contact approach minimizes value and his numbers over the years reveals how thin margin for error is.

During a recent rain delay, we were watching Ron Gardenhire talk about Target Field and he said that in the warm weather it’s going to be a hitter’s paradise. He pointed out certain subtle changes to the venue and insisted that “balls are going to fly outta here” in a big way. We made a note of that and will put it to the test here on a warm 80 degrees day in Minnesota. Nicholas Tepesch has made only two starts this season and it came against Seattle and Houston. Had Derek Holland, Matt Harrison and/or Martin Perez not got injured, Tepesch would still be in the minors. Tepesch was a non-roster invitee in 2013 that made club out of spring training and managed 17 starts in his MLB debut. He had a rough 5.52 ERA and 1.60 WHIP at Arlington in 2013, along with league-average skills. Tepesch has a swinging strike rate of 5% so his 12 K’s in 12 innings this season is not supported. He now takes a big step up in class when facing a Twins club that has scored as many runs at home as the Tigers in one less game. We’re expecting some crooked innings from both these offenses here and these two pitchers, especially Correia, figure to oblige.


Colorado @ PHILADELPHIA
Colorado/PHILADELPHIA over 8½ +100

Combined, Jhoulys Chacin and Kyle Kendrick are 0-8 in 13 starts. At Citizens Bank, Kendrick is 0-5 with an ERA of 4.52. Two respectable seasons as a swingman earned Kendrick a full-time rotation spot in 2013. Then he produced an ugly 4.70 ERA and 1.40 WHIP and he’s maintained that this year as a starter with almost identical numbers (4.53 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP). In nine starts, Kendrick is winless so not only is he pitching poorly, but he’s also a frustrated pitcher that has to be feeling the pressure of being dropped from the rotation if things don’t improve. Kendrick teased us with a couple of decent years and a nice uptick in strikeouts in 2012 but there's not much upside in this skill set except that he can take the ball every fifth day. In the end, the weak strikeout numbers, middling xERA and disaster risk all make Kendrick at best an innings eater. Kendrick’s last start in Miami resulted in a 14-5 Marlins victory.

The concerns regarding Chacin’s health and skills keep getting larger. Chacin has spent 126 days on the DL over the past three seasons and spent the first month on it this year. In 23 innings over four starts, he was walked 10 batters and struck out 11. The result is a 1.46 WHIP but that’s not the only warning sign. Chacin’s groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 37%/28%/36% is one of the worst profiles in the game. In two road starts at hitter friendly AT&T Park in San Fran and Citi Field in New York, Chacin was tagged for 12 hits and seven runs in 10.2 frames. He was also taken yard twice in his last start at San Fran. Chacin’s K rate is way down, his walks are up and it looks like last year’s big September fade and high line-drive % was not an aberration.

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Ben Burns

9* Brewers ML -130 2:30pm
10* Royals ML-155 8:10pm

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J.R Stevens/SMOOTH44

MLB Today’s Top Picks
Miami +115
Cincinnati +105
Detroit +120
Tampa Bay +140
Houston +145
Boston +120
(*Listed Pitchers)

NBA
Indiana Pacers+7 (Play of the Day)
*Get the half point if necessary

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Diamond Dog Sports




Sides 49-42-0
+1,276

#903: Marlins: +115 .5*
Listed Pitchers: Eovaldi / Roark

#920: Mariners: +120 1*
Listed Pitchers: Skaggs / Young


Totals 37-48-5
-2,560

#905/906: Under Giants: 7.0 -120 3*
Listed Pitchers: Samardzija / Petit

#925/926: Over Braves: 7.0 -125 2*
Listed Pitchers: Buchholtz / Santana

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Burns

NHL

10* Chicago/Los Angeles UNDER 5 -119

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Doc

4* Pirates
4* Brewers
3* Angels

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HC PICKS / Britney DeLuca

Today’s Plays…
In MLB take MINNESOTA +105 to make the Rangers see double today!
In MLB take MIAMI +120 to not feel too patriotic today!
In MLB take CINCINNATI +105 to dodge a close one in L.A.!
In NBA take INDIANA +6.5 to stay cool in the heat!

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Soccer Tips

19.00 CET - Sweden Superettan:
Angelholms - Husqvarna, over 2.5 @1.70

17.30 CET - Finland Veikkausliiga:
Rovaniemi - Jaro, 2 (0) AH @1.73

19.00 CET - Denmark NordicBet Ligaen:
Vendsyssel - Silkeborg, over 2.5 @1.57

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Exclusive Sports

MLB

Royals -150