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Kevin's Pick(s):
Although Toronto's starter gave up 5 runs we couldn't cash an underdog yesterday as Bedard struggled from the get-go.
2 UNIT = Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins - UNDER 7 RUNS (+105)
Listed Pitchers: Darvish vs Hughes
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.10 units)
Texas won the first meeting of this series yesterday by a score of 7-2. Today we will see yu Darvish on the mound for Texas who is 4-2 on the season with a 2.35 ERA, .215 OBA and 1.11 WHIP. Over his last 4 starts he is 3-1 with a 2.10 ERA, and on the road this season he is 3-0 with a 2.73 ERA. In two career starts vs the Twins he holds a 2.92 ERA. Phil Hughes will counter for the Twins and he has been great this season. He is 5-1 with a 3.15 ERA, .272 OBA and 1.20 WHIP. Over his last 6 starts he is 5-0 with a 1.60 ERA and has struck out 30 and walked just one over that span. Although his ERA is higher at home, his numbers overall are better with a .248 OBA and 1.09 WHIP when pitching at home. Take note that the UNDER is 20-8-2 in Darvish's last 30 starts overall, and 6-1 in his last 7 starts vs a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Hughes' last 5 starts overall and 3-0-1 in his last 4 vs a team with a winning record. The UNDER is also 5-1 in the Twins last 6 home games vs a team with a winning record. These two teams don't see each other too often, but the UNDER is 15-5-1 in their last 21 meetings and 7-1-1 in their last 9 meetings in Minnesota. Hughes has quietly been one of the best starting pitchers lately, while Yu Darvish is Yu Darvish. I expect runs to be tough to come by tonight, and I'll take the UNDER 7 runs at plus money.
Kyle's Pick(s)
2 UNIT = Baltimore Orioles @ Milwaukee Brewers - OVER 8 RUNS (-105)
Listed Pitchers: Chen vs. Garza
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.90 units)
The way things have been going, I was beginning to worry that the 6-6 game between the Red Sox and Braves was going to be suspended. Thankfully it went on and I cashed in a much needed win on the OVER 7 for one of the more easy wins of the season.
I liken the Baltimore Orioles to the Toronto Blue Jays. They both had slow starts, generally offensively, but guys you expect to be mashing the ball are finally stepping up. However, the Orioles are severely lacking in the pitching department. I think a lot depended on Jimenez, but he has failed to excite anyone thus far. Wei-Yin Chen may actually be their best option in the starting rotation next to Bud Norris, which isn't saying much. In the Orioles last seven games, three of them they lost when they scored more than 5 runs. Likewise, Baltimore is on a 7-1 run on the OVER, which is to be expected with a team that is giving up a lot and scoring a lot. Chen has a 4.08 ERA, but I think he is fortunate, as his WHIP is 1.42. On the road his WHIP is all the way up to 1.52 with a .341 OBP. Moreover, Chen has an ERA of 4.43 away from home. Matt Garza has been consistent this season, not consistently good, but consistently mediocre. That has been Garza throughout his whole career, though. In his last five games he has given up 5, 3, 3, 3, and 4 runs. His past three starts has yielded a 4.91 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. 8 times out of 10 it is easy to predict what Garza is going to do. 4 runs allowed in this spot seems realistic. Factor in the bullpens and Chen's unreliability, this game should be able to get OVER the posted total of 8.
Although Toronto's starter gave up 5 runs we couldn't cash an underdog yesterday as Bedard struggled from the get-go.
2 UNIT = Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins - UNDER 7 RUNS (+105)
Listed Pitchers: Darvish vs Hughes
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.10 units)
Texas won the first meeting of this series yesterday by a score of 7-2. Today we will see yu Darvish on the mound for Texas who is 4-2 on the season with a 2.35 ERA, .215 OBA and 1.11 WHIP. Over his last 4 starts he is 3-1 with a 2.10 ERA, and on the road this season he is 3-0 with a 2.73 ERA. In two career starts vs the Twins he holds a 2.92 ERA. Phil Hughes will counter for the Twins and he has been great this season. He is 5-1 with a 3.15 ERA, .272 OBA and 1.20 WHIP. Over his last 6 starts he is 5-0 with a 1.60 ERA and has struck out 30 and walked just one over that span. Although his ERA is higher at home, his numbers overall are better with a .248 OBA and 1.09 WHIP when pitching at home. Take note that the UNDER is 20-8-2 in Darvish's last 30 starts overall, and 6-1 in his last 7 starts vs a team with a losing record. The UNDER is 4-0-1 in Hughes' last 5 starts overall and 3-0-1 in his last 4 vs a team with a winning record. The UNDER is also 5-1 in the Twins last 6 home games vs a team with a winning record. These two teams don't see each other too often, but the UNDER is 15-5-1 in their last 21 meetings and 7-1-1 in their last 9 meetings in Minnesota. Hughes has quietly been one of the best starting pitchers lately, while Yu Darvish is Yu Darvish. I expect runs to be tough to come by tonight, and I'll take the UNDER 7 runs at plus money.
Kyle's Pick(s)
2 UNIT = Baltimore Orioles @ Milwaukee Brewers - OVER 8 RUNS (-105)
Listed Pitchers: Chen vs. Garza
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.90 units)
The way things have been going, I was beginning to worry that the 6-6 game between the Red Sox and Braves was going to be suspended. Thankfully it went on and I cashed in a much needed win on the OVER 7 for one of the more easy wins of the season.
I liken the Baltimore Orioles to the Toronto Blue Jays. They both had slow starts, generally offensively, but guys you expect to be mashing the ball are finally stepping up. However, the Orioles are severely lacking in the pitching department. I think a lot depended on Jimenez, but he has failed to excite anyone thus far. Wei-Yin Chen may actually be their best option in the starting rotation next to Bud Norris, which isn't saying much. In the Orioles last seven games, three of them they lost when they scored more than 5 runs. Likewise, Baltimore is on a 7-1 run on the OVER, which is to be expected with a team that is giving up a lot and scoring a lot. Chen has a 4.08 ERA, but I think he is fortunate, as his WHIP is 1.42. On the road his WHIP is all the way up to 1.52 with a .341 OBP. Moreover, Chen has an ERA of 4.43 away from home. Matt Garza has been consistent this season, not consistently good, but consistently mediocre. That has been Garza throughout his whole career, though. In his last five games he has given up 5, 3, 3, 3, and 4 runs. His past three starts has yielded a 4.91 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. 8 times out of 10 it is easy to predict what Garza is going to do. 4 runs allowed in this spot seems realistic. Factor in the bullpens and Chen's unreliability, this game should be able to get OVER the posted total of 8.
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