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MLB
Hot pitchers
-- Alvarez is 2-1, 3.06 in his last seven starts.
-- Lincecum is 2-1, 2.75 in his last three starts.
-- Hernandez is 1-1, 1.45 in his last three starts. Lyles is 1-0, 2.50 in his last three road starts.
-- Stauffer threw five shutout innings in his only '14 start.
-- Kershaw is 3-1, 3.49 in five starts, only one of which was at home.
-- Cosart is 2-1, 4.15 in his last three starts. Duffy has a 2.74 RA in four starts but only one win.
-- Hendriks allowed one run in 5.2 IP in his first '14 start.
-- Sanchez is 2-0, 2.57 in his last three starts. Kazmir is 3-2, 3.34 in his last six.
-- Hernandez is 3-0, 2.78 in his last three starts. Wilson is 2-0, 0.59 in his last two starts.
-- Lackey is 3-1, 2.83 in his last six starts.
-- Miller is 5-1, 3.18 in his last six starts.
Cold pitchers
-- Zimmerman is 1-1, 6.11 in his last three starts.
-- Colon is 1-2, 6.44 in his last five starts. Morton is 1-2, 4.34 in his last three.
-- Jackson is 1-2, 5.82 in his last three starts.
-- Anderson has a 7.24 RA in three starts this year.
-- Bailey is 0-2, 8.04 in his last three road starts.
-- Archer is 1-1, 6.68 in his last six starts.
-- Noesi is 0-3, 5.74 in five starts this season. House allowed five runs in six IP in his first MLB start.
-- Gibson is 1-2, 7.71 in his last three starts. Saunders allowed five runs in 3.2 IP in his first '14 start April 4-- he got hit by a line drive, went on DL.
-- Floyd is 0-1, 4.91 in his last three starts.
-- Gallardo is 0-3, 6.33 in his last four starts. Norris is 1-2, 3.71 in his last four.
-- Kuroda is 1-2, 6.69 in his last six starts.
Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Alvarez 4-10; Zimmerman 1-10
-- Morton 2-10; Colon 3-10
-- Jackson 4-10; Lincecum 4-10
-- Lyles 3-10; Hernandez 4-8
-- Stauffer 0-1; Anderson 0-3
-- Bailey 3-10; Kershaw 0-5
-- Cosart 5-10; Duffy 0-4
-- Archer 2-10; Hendriks 0-1
-- House 0-1; Noesi 3-5
-- Saunders 1-1; Gibson 3-9
-- Sanchez 3-7; Kazmir 2-10
-- Wilson 3-10; Hernandez 1-11
-- Floyd 0-4; Lackey 3-10
-- Norris 2-9; Gallardo 2-10
-- Kuroda 5-10 (4 of last 5); Miller 0-10
Totals
-- Under is 6-1 in Pittsburgh's last seven road games.
-- Seven of last ten Miami road games went over.
-- Eight of last eleven Cub games stayed under.
-- Eight of last eleven Colorado road games stayed under.
-- Eight of last nine Arizona games stayed under total.
-- Under is 10-6 in last sixteen Cincinnati road games.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Texas road games.
-- Over is 9-6 in White Sox' last fifteen games.
-- Last nine Detroit games went over the total.
-- Under is 8-4-2 in last fourteen Angel games.
-- Under is 4-2 in last six Toronto home games.
-- Ten of last fourteen Houston road games stayed under.
-- Under is 16-5-2 in last 23 Atlanta home games.
-- Under is 7-4-2 in last thirteen Milwaukee games.
-- Five of last seven St Louis home games stayed under.
Hot teams
-- Pirates won five of last seven games, but are 5-14 in last 19 on road.
-- Dodgers won six of their last eight games.
-- San Francisco won six of its last eight games.
-- Rangers won five of their last seven games.
-- Angels won 13 of their last 18 games.
-- Blue Jays won ten of their last twelve games. Tampa Bay won four of its last six games.
-- Houston won its last four games.
-- Milwaukee won five of its last seven home games.
-- Cardinals won ten of their last thirteen games. Bronx is 9-6 in last fifteen road games.
Cold teams
-- Mets lost nine of their last thirteen games.
-- Miami lost seven of its last 11 away games. Washington lost five of its last six games.
-- Cubs lost eight of their last twelve road games.
-- Rockies lost six of their last eight road games. Phillies lost five of their last seven games.
-- Arizona lost 17 of its 24 home games. San Diego lost six of its last nine games overall.
-- Reds lost ten of last thirteen road games.
-- Minnesota lost four of its last five games.
-- White Sox are 6-7 in their last thirteen home games. Cleveland lost five of its last six games.
-- Detroit lost seven of its last nine games. Oakland lost five of its last six.
-- Mariners are 5-7 in their last twelve home games.
-- Kansas City is 5-10 in its last 15 home games.
-- Red Sox lost 10 of their last 12 games, but won last two. Atlanta is 6-8 in its last 14 games.
-- Orioles lost five of their last six road games.
Umpires
-- Mia-Wsh-- Under is 4-0-1 in last five Buckminster games.
-- Col-Phil-- Home side won all eight Rackley games; under is 5-1-1 in his last seven games behind the plate.
-- Pitt-NY-- Five of last six Nelson games stayed under.
-- SD-Az-- Underdogs won seven of last eight Barber games; over is 6-1-1 in those games.
-- Cin-LA-- Visiting team won four of last five Cuzzi games.
-- Chi-SF-- Six of seven Segal games went over the total.
-- TB-Tor-- Seven of nine O'Nora games stayed under the total.
-- Cle-Chi-- Over is 7-1-1 in LBarrett games.
-- Hst-KC-- Four of last five Barksdale games went over total.
-- Tex-Min-- Four of last five Hoberg games stayed under.
-- Det-A's-- Five of last seven Meals games went over total.
-- LA-Sea-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Scott games.
-- Bos-Atl-- Seven of ten Hoye games stayed under.
-- Blt-Mil-- Favorites won seven of nine Kellogg games.
-- NY-StL-- Last four Vanover games went over the total. -
STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 5/28/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Wednesday, 5/28/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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NBA Playoff Journal (May 27)
The Pacers did finally hold the Heat to under 50 percent from the floor in Game #4 (Miami shot 46.4%) but it was not NEARLY enough. The Heat were the way more aggressive team and it showed in the fact that Miami took 34 free throws (made 30) while Indiana got to the line just 17 times (made 11). The plus-19 point disparity at the charity stripe was more than enough for the Heat to win comfortably, 102-90.
After playing its best game of the 2014 postseason in Game #1 of this Eastern Conference finals (Pacers won 107-96), Indiana has now dropped three straight to Miami and finds itself in a 1-3 'hole.' The Heat are now just one win away from a FOURTH straight trip to the NBA Finals, a feat accomplished by only two other NBA franchises, the Celtics and Lakers. LBJ had his highest scoring game of the series with 32 points but the real plus for Miami in Game #4 was Chris Bosh, who up until now, had been VERY quiet in this series. Bosh had scored just nine points in each of the first three games (on 12 of 33 shooting, which is 36.4%) but he came up HUGE in Game #4 Monday night, getting 25 points on 7 of 15 shooting on FGs and 8 of 10 on free throws.
Paul George bounced back from a poor Game #3 with 23 points and David West added 20 & 12 but Roy Hibbert did another "disappearing act," playing 22 scoreless minutes (0 of 4 FGs), while grabbing five rebounds. He had averaged 15.7 PPG in the 1st three games of the series but this one was B-A-D! It should also come as no surprise that Lance Stephenson's 'bark' is quite a bit louder than his 'bite,' as the guy who engaged "King James" in a "war of words," scored just nine points on 3 of 7 shooting.
Home teams have struggled his postseason but NOT here in the conference finals. Monday night's Miami win makes home teams 6-1 straight-up and versus the number in the two current series. However, since the start of the postseason, home teams are a modest 44-35 SU (.557), while going a 'money-burning' 33-43-3 ATS (that's 43.4% or minus-14.3 net games).
Monday evenings’ game went over (again) and over players are cashing at almost a 60 percent rate this postseason, with 46 overs and 33 unders, so far (58.2% favoring the over). "Zig-Zaggers" lost with the Pacers and fell to 34-28-3 year to date. However, that remains a profit of 3.2 net games. Tuesday, they'll be on the San Antonio Spurs when they visit the Thunder in Oklahoma City at 9:00 PM EST on TNT.
We all know the storyline Tuesday. Serge Ibaka's surprising return to the court in Game #3, made the Thunder look like a completely different team. His presence allowed Nick Collison to return to the bench (a place he never left), while Scott Brooks also replaced Thabo Sefolosha (0 for 9 on FGs in the 1st two games) with Reggie Jackson, who scored 15 points. Brooks will also likely to continue to make more use of rookie center Steven Adams, who has averaged 8 & 8 the last two games.
The lineup changes allowed Oklahoma City to out-rebound the Spurs 52-36 on Sunday after getting out-rebounded by three in Game #1 and 15 in Game #2. The Thunder also more aggressive and outscored the Spurs 26-15 at the free throw line. As for San Antonio, after shooting 57.5% in Game #1 and 50.0% in Game #2 (while averaging 117.0 PPG), the Spurs connected on only 39.6 percent, while scoring just 97 points. Tony Parker and Danny Green, who combined for 43 points in Game #2, had just 17 in Game #3, shooting a combined 7 of 25 (28.0%).
Do we now have a series? Oklahoma City dominated on Sunday with Ibaka and it sort of reminded us that Oklahoma City swept the Spurs 4-0 this regular season, outscoring San Antonio on average by just about 10 PPG (106.0-to-96.8). We begin to find out the 'answer' at 9:00 PM EST (once again TNT will carry the coverage). The Thunder are favored by 2 1/2 points and the total is 207.
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Eastern Conference Finals
#517 MIAMI @ #518 INDIANA
(TV: 8:30 PM EST, ESPN - Line: Heat -2, Total: 184) - The Miami Heat are on the verge of a fourth consecutive trip to the NBA Finals while the Indiana Pacers are one loss away from a long summer of figuring out what went wrong. The Heat will look to close out the Eastern Conference finals when they visit the Pacers for Game #5 on Wednesday night. Indiana took Game #1 of the series but has dropped three straight and never looked like it had a chance as Miami cruised through Game #4 on Monday.
The Pacers have never won a series in which they trailed 3-1 but are not giving up on reversing that history. “Our guys believe in what we do, and we know that,” coach Frank Vogel told reporters. “Once we lost Game #2, we need to win one time (in Miami) and then take care of homecourt. So we had three opportunities to do that. We didn’t do it in Game #3 and #4. I believe they’re strong, and we’ll go back and get Game #5 and then come back and fight Game #6.” LeBron James and the Heat realize that Indiana is not going to go down easy. “It’s going to take a better game than we had (Monday),” James told reporters. “It’s that simple.”
•ABOUT THE HEAT (65-30 SU, 46-47-2 ATS): Miami got a big lift on Monday from center Chris Bosh, who hit his first four shots and ended up with a postseason-high 25 points. “Well, certainly it’s much more how we wanted to play, and the start helped,” coach Eric Spoelstra told reporters. “We came out with a tremendous amount of energy and that was on both ends of the court.” James took care of things in the second half as the Heat cruised. Miami has never let a 3-1 lead slip away in the “Big Three” era and doesn’t intend to let up. “You have to get better every game,” James said. “Their back is against the wall, but we have to go in with that mindset that our back is against the wall, too.”
•ABOUT THE PACERS (65-34 SU, 46-52-1 ATS): Guard Lance Stephenson made headlines when he talked about James showing weakness by responding to trash talk prior to Game #4 but had a difficult time backing up his comments. Stephenson was held to one point in the first three quarters and did not record a field goal until the game was out of hand midway through the fourth. Stephenson wasn’t the only starter struggling, as Roy Hibbert went scoreless and had trouble chasing Bosh around the perimeter in the first half. Both Paul George and David West questioned the officiating after Game #4 but guard George Hill was ready to turn the page. “I think this is when we are at out best, when our backs are against the wall,” Hill told reporters.
•PREGAME NOTES: Miami G Ray Allen (hip) and F Chris Andersen (thigh) are both questionable for Game #5.... Pacers F Luis Scola scored 12 points in Game #4, matching his total from the first three games.... Indiana was outscored by 19 points at the free-throw line in Game #4.... The Heat are 52-36 against the spread (59.0%) versus teams who attempt 18 or more three-point shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last two seasons.... The Pacers are 7-19 versus the spread (26.9%) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season, including 1-8 ATS (0.11%) when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%).
StatSystems Sports has searched its database for all past games where the posted line or total were similar to this game's and where the final game statistics were comparable to the estimator's projections. (Points/Per Possession, Turnovers, along with Free-Throw Shooting Percentages). The number of simulations in which each team covered the current spread, won the game straight up, and number of simulations which went over or under the current total are listed below. Edges are indicated where one side enjoyed a significant advantage against the line or total.
-- In 1000 simulated games, MIAMI covered the spread 540 times, while INDIANA covered the spread 429 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, MIAMI won the game straight up 597 times, while INDIANA won 377 times. In 1000 simulated games, 532 games went under the total, while 447 games went over the total. *No EDGE.
-- In 1000 simulated games, MIAMI covered the first half line 498 times, while INDIANA covered the first half line 453 times. *No EDGE. In 1000 simulated games, 536 games went under first half total, while 464 games went over first half total. *No EDGE.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--INDIANA is 46-41 against the spread versus MIAMI since 1996.
--INDIANA is 46-43 straight up against MIAMI since 1996.
--49 of 89 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996.
--INDIANA is 48-40 versus the first half line when playing against MIAMI since 1996.
--48 of 88 games in this series have gone UNDER THE FIRST HALF TOTAL since 1996.
--Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
--Heat are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
--Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Indiana.
--Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
--Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
•RECENT TRENDS
--Heat are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Wednesday games.
--Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 games following a ATS win.
--Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 games following a S.U. win.
--Pacers are 2-10 ATS L12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
--Under is 4-0 in Pacers L4 after allowing 100 points or more LG.
--Under is 4-0 in Pacers L4 when their opponent scored 100 points or more LG.
•SITUATION ANALYSIS: Play Against - All teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (INDIANA) - revenging a loss versus opponent of 10 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive road losses, in a game involving two average defensive teams (92-98 PPG).
(177-42 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.8%, +78.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -234.2
The average score in these games was: Team 104.4, Opponent 95.7 (Average point differential = +8.7)
The situation's record this season is: (20-8, +1.3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (84-23, +31.4 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (570-203, +47.2 units).Comment
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Game of the Day: Heat at Pacers
Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers (+2, 184)
The Miami Heat are on the verge of a fourth consecutive trip to the NBA Finals while the Indiana Pacers are one loss away from a long summer of figuring out what went wrong. The Heat will look to close out the Eastern Conference finals when they visit the Pacers for Game 5 on Wednesday. Indiana took Game 1 of the series but has dropped three straight and never looked like it had a chance as Miami cruised through Game 4 on Monday.
The Pacers have never won a series in which they trailed 3-1 but are not giving up on reversing that history. “Our guys believe in what we do, and we know that,” coach Frank Vogel told reporters. “Once we lost Game 2, we need to win one time (in Miami) and then take care of homecourt. So we had three opportunities to do that. We didn’t do it in Game 3 and 4. I believe they’re strong, and we’ll go back and get Game 5 and then come back and fight Game 6.” LeBron James and the Heat realize that Indiana is not going to go down easy. “It’s going to take a better game than we had (Monday),” James told reporters. “It’s that simple.”
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
LINE HISTORY: Books opened the Heat as 2-point road favorites. The total opened 184.
INJURY REPORT: Heat - Chris Andersen (Questionable, thigh).
WHAT THE BOOKS SAY: "We opened this game Heat -2.5 and so far, it’s attracted good two-way action. Pacers in a must-win game with it being a 'lose and go home' scenario for the. But while they’re in a must win spot, I still have serious questions about their mindset going into Game 5. Do they really think they can beat this Heat team three-straight games and win the series? The Pacers have proven one thing in the past three months, that they are a mentally weak team. So do they truly believe that they can win this series? And if they don’t believe they can, then they could easily be in the mindset of 'let’s get this series over with and let’s get this traumatic season over with'. I believe the Pacers will come out to play, but as has been the case in Games 2 and 3, the Heat will eventually get to that fifth gear that the Pacers simply don’t have and will win this game by going away in the 4th quarter." Peter Childs, Sportsbook.com.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The two-time defending champions have won three-straight in this series (both straight-up and ATS) and are mere 2-point favs heading into a crucial Game 5. Coaches and players alike are rattled in Indiana, while Miami continues to conduct itself with poise and an ever growing sense of confidence. All eyes now turn to Pacers' coach Frank Vogel who will be tasked to figure out a line-up that works, and if he doesn't, Indiana's big regular season in which it worked so hard to obtain home-court advantage, will definitely have been wasted." - Covers Experts' Nick Parsons
ABOUT THE HEAT: Miami got a big lift on Monday from center Chris Bosh, who hit his first four shots and ended up with a postseason-high 25 points. “Well, certainly it’s much more how we wanted to play, and the start helped,” coach Eric Spoelstra told reporters. “We came out with a tremendous amount of energy and that was on both ends of the court.” James took care of things in the second half as the Heat cruised. Miami has never let a 3-1 lead slip away in the “Big Three” era and doesn’t intend to let up. “You have to get better every game,” James said. “Their back is against the wall, but we have to go in with that mindset that our back is against the wall, too.”
ABOUT THE PACERS: Guard Lance Stephenson made headlines when he talked about James showing weakness by responding to trash talk prior to Game 4 but had a difficult time backing up his comments. Stephenson was held to one point in the first three quarters and did not record a field goal until the game was out of hand midway through the fourth. Stephenson wasn’t the only starter struggling, as Roy Hibbert went scoreless and had trouble chasing Bosh around the perimeter in the first half. Both Paul George and David West questioned the officiating after Game 4 but guard George Hill was ready to turn the page. “I think this is when we are at out best, when our backs are against the wall,” Hill told reporters.
TRENDS:
* Heat are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Heat are 8-1 ATS in their last nine vs. NBA Central.
* Pacers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
COVERS CONSENSUS: Fifty-four percent of wagers on Covers Consensus are on the Heat -2.Comment
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Heat/Pacers #5: The Game Inside the Game
By DAVID MALINSKY
It could have been as easy here as a cut-and-paste from Monday’s prelude to Game #4, since the music was the same, but the lyrics slightly different – Bob Vogel is working with a rock-and-roll band, and the limitations that they bring, while Erik Spoelstra is conducting an orchestra. But the latest overture does deserve a closer look, as does that eccentric NBA stat table known as +/-.
To recap from earlier our forays inside this series flow, the Pacers had James-Wade-Chalmers-Bosh-Haslem on their mind for a long time. They built a team that could take on that group, and from what has been seen in this series they might well beat them – they have out-scored them consistently when that has been the lineup. But Miami has built a stockpile of veteran players that can drastically change the make-up and flow, and through Games #2 and #3 it was in going away from the original starting lineup that Spoelstra took command.
Game #4 brought a new wrinkle, the insertion of Rashard Lewis into the starting lineup, and we will look at it a couple of different ways. First the impact on the flow, and then how +/- can be such a difficult tool to work with.
The biggest matchup problem the Heat have against the Pacers is the defense of Roy Hibbert around the basket, making it difficult to finish drives. Through the first two games Indiana was a +27 in the 79:30 that he played. In Game #3 the entire momentum of the series turned when Spoelstra went with a smaller lineup, and while the most visible aspect of that were those Ray Allen triples in the fourth quarter against a confused defense, do not forget how easily they also converted from closer range, signs of what couple happen when Hibbert was brought away from the basket.
So then came Monday. Lewis went from not even playing in the first two games to joining the starting lineup, and the strategy was easy to see from the start – establish Chris Bosh on the perimeter, taking Hibbert far out of his defensive comfort zone. Bosh had not been having a good series, but he scored eight points in the first 1:48, and the tone had been set. The Pacer defense, #1 in the NBA during the regular season, never found a groove. They were an awful -23 in the 22:14 that Hibbert played, and only forced Miami into five turnovers the entire game.
You should know that part of the story by heart now – the flexibility of the Heat, and the inflexibility of Indiana, is the dominant series theme. For the Pacers to win they have to “do the things that they do” very well, because there are no X’s and O’s fixes. What they do has worked against the traditional Heat lineup back in Indianapolis, where they have gone 6-2 the past two seasons, with five of the wins in double figures. But when Vogel called for his Tuesday practice, how could he even anticipate the Miami starting lineup or rotation for Game #5?
Then there is +/-. Let’s begin by repeating what was said prior to Game #4 in this space – “keep in mind that +/- numbers are inexact, and should never be more than an accessory to a properly-dressed handicap.” Find a way to etch that into your NBA handicapping consciousness, because the Lewis numbers over the past two games shatter all logical conventions.
Lewis played 43:15 in those two games, and his stat line was horrific. He was 0-7 from the field, not scoring a single point, with only three rebounds and one assist. Had you graded him on that, it would go downs as one of the worst stretches of playoff basketball anyone has ever played. But what did the scoreboard show for those minutes? How about a +35 for the Heat? That would make it one of the best stretches of playoff basketball anyone has ever played, a per-minute rate that would shatter anything that has ever happened in the Conference Finals.
So how do you account for such a bizarre +/- distribution in your thinking? You don’t. It is a factor that should not be a big enough part of your handicap to require an adjustment. At best, cuff links, as a part of your ensemble.
Now for Game #5. Indiana will get a confidence boost from the venue, and keep in mind that when Paul George suffered his concussion they were seven minutes away from making it a 2-0 series. But that was still mostly against the traditional Miami rotation. Adjusting to the smaller and quicker group is so difficult for the Pacers, and you must keep in mind that in Game #4 they shot 49.3 percent from the field, nailing 9-21 triples, and won the boards 37-34. When that adds up to a 12-point loss, the issues are clear to see.Comment
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Today's MLB Picks
Miami at Washington
The Nationals look to even the series against the Marlins and come into tonight's contest with a 16-3 record in Jordan Zimmermann's last 19 starts as a favorite of -150 to -200. Washington is the pick (-160) according to Dunkel, which has the Nationals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Washington (-160). Here are all of today's picks.
WEDNESDAY, MAY 28
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. ESTGame 901-902: Pittsburgh at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 14.581; NY Mets (Colon) 13.604
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 8
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-110); 7
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-110); OverGame 903-904: Chicago Cubs at San Francisco (3:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Jackson) 14.350; San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.925
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-170); UnderGame 905-906: Colorado at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Lyles) 15.630; Philadelphia (Hernandez) 14.671
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-110); OverGame 907-908: Miami at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Alvarez) 14.715; Washington (Zimmermann) 16.425
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-160); UnderGame 909-910: San Diego at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Stauffer) 16.102; Arizona (Anderson) 15.097
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Arizona (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+100); UnderGame 911-912: Cincinnati at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Bailey) 14.133; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.731
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-200); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-200); OverGame 913-914: Houston at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Cosart) 16.877; Kansas City (Duffy) 15.969
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-165); 8
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+145); UnderGame 915-916: Tampa Bay at Toronto (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Archer) 16.423; Toronto (Hendriks) 15.466
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Toronto (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-110); OverGame 917-918: Cleveland at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (House) 16.620; White Sox (Noesi) 15.745
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-105); UnderGame 919-920: Texas at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Saunders) 14.721; Minnesota (Gibson) 16.121
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-115); OverGame 921-922: Detroit at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Sanchez) 14.047; Oakland (Kazmir) 15.611
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Oakland (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-120); UnderGame 923-924: LA Angels at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Wilson) 14.524; Seattle (Hernandez) 14.382
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Seattle (-130); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+110); OverGame 925-926: Atlanta at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Floyd) 15.552; Boston (Lackey) 14.649
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Boston (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+120); UnderGame 927-928: Baltimore at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Norris) 14.122; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.670
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-130); OverGame 929-930: NY Yankees at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Kuroda) 14.402; St. Louis (Miller) 15.820
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-125); UnderComment
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Today's NBA Picks
Miami at Indiana
The Pacers look to stay alive in the series tonight as they host a Miami team that is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 road games when the total is set between 180 and 184.5 points. Indiana is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Pacers favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+2 1/2). Here are all of today's playoff picks.
WEDNESDAY, MAY 28
Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. ESTGame 517-518: Miami at Indiana (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 123.088; Indiana 124.979
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 2; 188
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 2 1/2; 184
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+2 1/2); OverComment
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WNBA Basketball Picks
Tulsa at San Antonio
The Shock head to San Antonio tonight to face a Stars team that is 1-3 ATS in its last 4 home games. Tulsa is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Stars favored by only 3. Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (+6 1/2). Here are all of today's WNBA picks.
WEDNESDAY, MAY 28
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. ESTGame 651-652: Tulsa at San Antonio (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 109.415; San Antonio 112.504
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 3; 150
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 6 1/2; 156
Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (+6 1/2); UnderComment
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Cappers Access
Pacers +2
Blackhawks -1.5 (+210)Comment
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Gamblers Data
Free Plays Wednesday
Kings/Blackhawks over 5
Tulsa Shock +7Comment
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
Free Play WED: Royals -170Comment
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StatFox Super Situations
NBA | MIAMI at INDIANA
Play On - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANA) triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent against opponent after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite
77-42 since 1997. ( 64.7% | 30.8 units )
1-3 this year. ( 25.0% | -2.3 units )
NBA | MIAMI at INDIANA
Play Against - Any team vs the money line (INDIANA) revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive road losses
206-94 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.7% | 71.0 units )
23-14 this year. ( 62.2% | -1.3 units )
NBA | MIAMI at INDIANA
Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is between 90.5 and 95.5 points after 3 or more consecutive wins, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
7-3 this year. ( 70.0% | 3.7 units )Comment
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NBA playoffs
Pacers outscored Heat 29-10 on foul line in Game 1; since then, Miami has 56-40 edge on charity stripe, winning last three games by 4-12-12 points. Heat is dominant in 4th quarter this spring. Home side won 11 of last 12 Miami-Indiana games; eight of last 11 series games went over the total. Miami is 11-3 in playoffs, 4-2 on road; they're 9-5 as favorite in playoffs. Indiana is 9-8 in playoffs, 5-3 vs spread when they are getting points (0-3 in last three). Hibbert was scoreless four 4th time in playoffs last game. Question now becomes Indiana's will to compete to extend a series it is doubtful they can win.
Over is 46-34 in playoffs this season, 4-4 in this round..
Favorites are 31-49 in playoffs this season, 7-1 in this round.Comment
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Heat looks to close
Miami (65-30) at Indiana (65-34)
Line and Total: Miami -2, Total: 184
The Heat look to eliminate the host Pacers and advance to the NBA Finals for the third straight season in Wednesday's Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals.
After a Game 1 victory in which Indiana defeated the Heat by 11 points, Miami has completely taken control of the series with three straight victories. The Heat won Game 2 by four points and have prevailed in two home games by 12 points each, taking Monday's Game 4 by a 102-90 score. The series now shifts back to Bankers Life Fieldhouse where the Pacers will be fighting for their playoff lives after an entire season of positioning themselves with the top seed in the East. Both clubs have a nearly break-even ATS record in this scenario this season with the Heat going 23-22-2 ATS on the road with their opponent at 24-25-1 ATS at home. But Indiana has the 9-5 SU (8-6 ATS) advantage when hosting in this series over the past three seasons. However, Miami is 17-11 SU (15-13 ATS) overall in that timeframe.
The Heat are 9-4 ATS this postseason (4-2 ATS on road), and are also 11-2 ATS this season when playing five or less games in 14 days. But the Pacers are 3-0 ATS this season when playing against a team that has defeated them in three straight games and 19-7 ATS at home when playing four or less games in a 10-day span in the past two seasons. The only injury concern for either team is PF Chris Andersen (thigh), who missed Game 4, but will likely give it a go in Game 5 in Indiana.
The Heat played an outstanding game at AmericanAirlines Arena on Monday with a 102-90 victory. They shot 46.4% FG and 88.2% FT (30-of-34) with only seven turnovers. Now Miami looks to buy itself some extra rest with a Game 5 series-clinching win. SF LeBron James (26.3 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 5.8 APG this series) played his best game of the series after being called out by Lance Stephenson of the Pacers, who didn’t think much of James’ trash talk in Game 3. James poured in 32 points (13-of-21 FG), 10 rebounds and five assists on Monday, and will continue to aggressively attack the basket as the Pacers were not able to protect the rim on Monday. SG Dwyane Wade (22.0 PPG, 3.8 APG, 3.0 RPG, 1.5 SPG this series) finished with 15 points in the game and also played some outstanding defense on Stephenson. If Wade, who is making 57% FG in the series, can continue to outplay the Pacers' shooting guard, Miami should have no problem finishing Indiana off and advancing to the finals.
PF Chris Bosh (13.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG this series) finally showed up in this series on Monday. Bosh was established early by the Heat and was on fire from the outside. The forward finished the game with 25 points (7-of-12 FG, 3-of-5 3PT) and six rebounds, which was quite an improvement from his 9.0 PPG and 4.0 RPG in the first three games versus Indiana. Miami will need Bosh, whose defense on Roy Hibbert was also a major reason the Heat won Game 4, to continue to shoot the ball well if it is going to complete the goal of winning three straight NBA championships. SG Ray Allen (10.0 PPG, 3.5 RPG this series) was the team's top reserve scorer on Monday with nine points and four rebounds, but made just 2-of-8 FG (1-of-5 threes) to drop to 41% FG (44% threes) for the series.
The Pacers fought all year long to get themselves the No. 1 seed because they were confident playing on their home court. Now they must win at home just to keep their season alive. On Monday, the team shot very well from the floor (49% FG, 43% threes), but made only 11-of-17 FT (65%) and committed 14 turnovers with only 18 assists on 35 baskets. Indiana also barely won the rebounding battle (37-34) despite having a superior frontcourt in terms of both size and skill. SG Lance Stephenson (15.3 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 6.0 APG this series) made the headlines this week as he opened his mouth and doubted LeBron James.
While James went off in Game 4, Stephenson was held to just nine points (3-of-7 FG) in 32 minutes. Indiana desperately needs its playmaker to get himself going early in Game 5 or it could be out of the game rather early. SF Paul George (19.5 PPG, 5.0 APG, 4.5 RPG this series) had 23 points and seven rebounds in 43 minutes in Game 4, but was rather ineffective until the garbage minutes in the fourth quarter. George must find himself some easy shots early in the game in order to get his confidence up. He can really struggle if he is not seeing the ball go in consistently. The Pacers are also going to need to find some shots for their All-Star C Roy Hibbert (11.8 PPG, 7.3 RPG this series). Hibbert took just four shots in Game 4 and was unable to score a single point in 22 minutes of play. The big man also found himself in foul trouble rather early.
The Pacers will need to get the same type of balance they received in Game 1 if they are going to get themselves back into this series. PF David West (15.5 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 3.8 APG in series) continues to be rock-solid for this team with 20 points, 12 rebounds and four assists in Game 4, and PG George Hill (12.8 PPG on 46% FG in series) had his best game of the series on Monday with 15 points (4-of-7 threes) and four assists. That output topped his combined assist total from the first three games of this series when he had three assists and five turnovers.Comment
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Kings -110 fave to win Stanley Cup
By STEPHEN CAMPBELL
Opening odds have the Los Angeles Kings slated as a -110 favorite to win the Stanley Cup.
The New York Rangers are listed at +140, the Chicago Blackhawks at +800 and the Montreal Canadiens at +1800.
The odds have shifted in the Kings favor after their Game 4 victory over the Hawks Monday night. Both L.A. and New York have a 3-1 stranglehold on their respective series.Comment
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