5-29-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL

Wednesday, May 28

Rangers had allowed 11 goals in previous seven games before 7-4 loss in Game 5 debacle that resembled pond hockey; NY won six of last eight games overall, but is just 5-4 at home so far in playoffs. Montreal is 9-5 in last 14 series games, but needs win here to keep series alive; they're 2-3 in last five road games- five of their 16 playoff games went OT. Habs are 10-6 in the playoffs, 5-3 on road. Over is 45-26-14 in playoffs, 6-2-2 this round. Rangers tied Game 5 with three goals in 4:24 span of second period after they pulled Lundqvist; Bourque scored twice after that to get hat trick, keep Montreal alive in series.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Spurs ready for pivotal Game 5

Oklahoma City (69-30) at San Antonio (72-26)

Western Conference Finals
Game 5 - Series Tied 2-2
Tip-off: Thursday, 9:05 p.m. ET
Line and Total: San Antonio -4.5, Total: 206

The Western Conference Finals head back to Texas all tied up as the Thunder and Spurs each try to gain a series edge in Thursday's Game 5.

This series has gone the way of the home team, which has won each of the first four games easily. In the first two contests, the Spurs won by an average of 26.0 PPG while the Thunder took both games at home by an average of 11.0 PPG. On Tuesday night, Oklahoma City came out and put on a show, hitting 51% of its shots in the first half and finishing the game with a 105-92 victory as two-point favorites. San Antonio’s offense was stagnant in the two road defeats, shooting under 40% from the field in each loss. No starter on the Spurs played more than 26 minutes in Game 4, as they were down by too much and were setting up for the next contest.

PG Russell Westbrook and SF Kevin Durant combined for 71 points in Tuesday's win while no player on San Antonio put up more than 14 points. San Antonio will be happy to head back home as it has lost nine straight in Oklahoma City and is 40-10 SU (26-24 ATS) when playing in front of its fans this season. Meanwhile, the Thunder are 29-20 SU (24-24-1 ATS) in their away games over the course of the season.

Including the playoffs, Oklahoma City is now 6-2 (SU and ATS) in this season series to improve to a solid 13-8 SU (14-6-1 ATS) in this matchup over the past three seasons. But during this same timeframe, the Spurs are 7-3 SU (5-4-1 ATS) at home versus the Thunder.

Oklahoma City has gone 53-34 ATS (61%) after having won two of its previous three games in the past two seasons while the Spurs are 124-86 ATS (59%) after a double-digit loss since 1996.

Both teams come into this game with no significant injuries to their rosters.

Oklahoma City has been a great offense all season long, scoring 105.6 PPG (47% FG) throughout the season, including 103.0 PPG (45% FG) in the playoffs. They club has shot well in this series too, hitting at least 46% FG in three of the four games.

SF Kevin Durant (24.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 3.8 APG, 1.3 SPG in series) had his best scoring performance of this series in Game 4, netting 31 points on 11-of-22 shooting while adding five rebounds, five assists and three steals. He has been all over the place with his shooting in this round, hitting 50% or more of his shots in two games while going 14-for-35 (40% FG) in the other two.

PG Russell Westbrook (26.5 PPG, 7.3 APG, 5.8 RPG, 2.5 SPG in series) was absolutely unbelievable on Tuesday, going for 40 points, 10 assists, five rebounds and five steals while looking unstoppable as he shot 12-of-24 from the field and 14-of-14 from the charity stripe. Even with his strong shooting performance in Game 4, he is still shooting just 41% in this series.

PF Serge Ibaka (12.0 PPG, 7.5 RPG in series) has made a profound effect in this series since returning from a hamstring injury and has been a force down low with seven blocks in his two games. He has not played much of a role in the offense though, attempting just 15 shots in the two contests while making 10. PG Reggie Jackson (9.8 PPG, 3.3 APG in series) was just 1-for-5 for three points on Tuesday after dealing with a tweaked ankle, and has made just 3-for-11 from long range over the four games.

San Antonio has been one of the most efficient offensive teams all season long with 105.4 PPG on 48.6% FG, and has been just as strong in the postseason with 105.6 PPG on an identical 48.6% FG. The Spurs defense has held opponents to 97.8 PPG on 44.3% FG, including 98.6 PPG on 44.0% FG during the postseason. These playoff defensive numbers have been even more impressive at home (94.4 PPG on 42.5% FG), including limiting the Thunder to just 91.0 PPG on 42.6% FG over the two games in San Antonio this series.

PG Tony Parker (14.8 PPG, 6.3 APG in series) averaged only 11.5 PPG and 4.0 APG in the two losses in Oklahoma City while failing to get to the free-throw line once. He has shot 50% or better in three of the four games in this series, but has nearly as many turnovers (11) as assists (13) over the past three contests.

PF Tim Duncan (16.5 PPG, 8.3 RPG in series) played just 25 minutes in Game 4, making 3-of-8 shots while scoring nine points and adding six rebounds. He has not logged more than 30 minutes in any of the games in this series, and has shot under 42% from the field in each of the past three games.

SF Kawhi Leonard (10.0 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 1.5 SPG in series) has seen his production really drop in this series, and has made just 16-of-40 FG (40%) over the four games. He had 10 points and five rebounds in Tuesday’s loss while on the court for 25 minutes. SG Manu Ginobili (14.3 PPG, 1.3 SPG in series) played only 11 minutes in Game 4, shooting just 2-for-8 while not adding a single assist or rebound in the game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

NBA | OKLAHOMA CITY at SAN ANTONIO
Play On - Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SAN ANTONIO) revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%)
120-72 since 1997. ( 62.5% | 40.8 units )
5-4 this year. ( 55.6% | 0.6 units )

NBA | OKLAHOMA CITY at SAN ANTONIO
Play Against - Any team vs the money line (SAN ANTONIO) revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive road losses
206-94 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.7% | 71.0 units )
23-14 this year. ( 62.2% | -1.3 units )

NBA | OKLAHOMA CITY at SAN ANTONIO
Play Under - Any team vs. the 1rst half line in a playoff series which is tied, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season
200-119 since 1997. ( 62.7% | 69.1 units )
9-14 this year. ( 39.1% | -6.4 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Preview: Canadiens (46-28) at Rangers (45-31)

Date: May 29, 2014 8:00 PM EDT

NEW YORK (AP) - The last time the New York Rangers had a game to forget, they responded with five straight wins that put them on the cusp of the Stanley Cup finals.

They are still there, and the Montreal Canadiens aren't going away without a fight.

New York needs one more victory to reach the championship round for the first time in 20 years. The Rangers know that Game 6 at home on Thursday is their best chance to get it.

They returned home from Montreal on Wednesday, one day after a wild 7-4 loss cut their series lead to 3-2. If New York doesn't end it Thursday, the Rangers will have to go back to Montreal for a deciding Game 7.

New York, which went the full seven games in each of the first two rounds of this year's playoffs, will be playing its 20th postseason game. No team that played a pair of seven-game series before the conference finals has reached the Stanley Cup finals.

'It's an opportunity to win the game to go to the Stanley Cup final,' Rangers forward Brad Richards said. 'I think everybody is alert and ready that way. We were talking about it all (Tuesday) how excited we were to get on the ice and start playing.

'We had some mental breakdowns, but I don't think it had anything to do with (fatigue). We've had a lot of rest this series. The opportunity that faces us right now, we're pretty excited about it. I don't think there is too much letdown.'

In the second round, a poor performance at home in Game 4 against Pittsburgh dropped the Rangers into a 3-1 series hole. But New York won Game 5 on the road, took Game 6 at home, and won the clincher back in Pittsburgh to set up the matchup with Montreal.

Now that the Canadiens have staved off elimination once, the Rangers are wary of giving them any more hope they can turn the tables.

'You learn a lot from it. That's why experience is experience,' Richards said. 'You go through many situations. (Tuesday) night was a bad feeling, but today we're getting on a plane to go back to our city, and we get to play in front of our fans.

'It's always, forget as quick as possible and try to remember the good things that we're doing. It was one bad night, but we've been doing a lot of good things in this series.'

The Rangers won the opening two games in Montreal and then split a pair of overtime decisions at home. Even though they have had success on the road and in recent Game 7s, they know that going the distance again works against them.

'It's a desperate time,' Richards said. 'You don't want to go back to a Game 7 where anything can happen. We want to get this done. They're a good team anywhere.

'We're going to have to be a lot better, and we will be.'

This is as far as New York has advanced since captain Mark Messier led the club to the 1994 Stanley Cup title - breaking the Rangers' 54-year drought.

The Garden will be ready to celebrate again Thursday. After the Rangers lost Game 4 to Pittsburgh, the loyal fans thought they might not see their team again until next season. That will be the situation again if the Canadiens pull off another victory.

'You win a game, and things change in your locker room and you start feeling better about yourselves,' Rangers defenseman Marc Staal said. 'We know how it feels coming back in a series, but it doesn't change anything in our room. We are as confident as ever going into our building, and looking forward to it.'

So are the Canadiens.

They know that if they would've scored in overtime of Game 4 as they did in Game 3, they would've had a two-game sweep at the Garden and would be the ones looking to advance Thursday.

'We'll be ready for one of those tight-checking games,' defenseman Josh Gorges said Wednesday after an optional practice in Montreal. 'I'm sure it will be again one of those hard-fought games that we'll have to make sure that we're even better than we were last game.'

Montreal will have rugged forward Brandon Prust back in the lineup after he served a two-game suspension for a late hit on Derek Stepan in Game 3 that broke the Rangers forward's jaw. Stepan returned Tuesday and scored two goals while wearing a full faceguard.

The Rangers will be without defenseman John Moore. He was suspended for two games Wednesday after receiving a match penalty Tuesday night for a hit to Montreal forward Dale Weise's head.

Moore will miss the remaining two games in this series if it goes the distance, or will sit out Game 1 of the Stanley Cup finals if the Rangers advance with a win Thursday.

'It's kind of what I would've thought would've happened,' Canadiens captain Brian Gionta said Wednesday night after the team arrived at their New York hotel. 'They were very similar plays, and I guess the precedent was set on Prust's hit.'

Henrik Lundqvist will be back in goal for the Rangers after he was pulled in Game 5 on a rare off night in which he allowed four goals on 19 shots in less than two periods. He avoided the loss when New York rallied from a 4-1 deficit to get even. Backup goalie Cam Talbot gave up two goals in relief.

'(Tuesday) night was probably the best game we've played in this series,' Canadiens forward Lars Eller said. 'If we keep doing a lot of those things, I think the end result will be good.'

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

WNBA | CONNECTICUT at INDIANA
Play Against - Underdogs (CONNECTICUT) off a home win, on Thursday nights
93-50 since 1997. ( 65.0% | 38.0 units )

WNBA | CONNECTICUT at INDIANA
Play On - Any team vs the money line (CONNECTICUT) poor team from last season - outscored by opponents by 3 or more points/game, after a win by 10 points or more
34-17 since 1997. ( 66.7% | 0.0 units )

WNBA | CONNECTICUT at INDIANA
Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is between 65.5 and 70.5 points off a win against a division rival, in May, June, or July games
176-103 since 1997. ( 63.1% | 62.7 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 2.0 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

MLB | BALTIMORE at HOUSTON
Play On - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (HOUSTON) with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start, with a team batting average of .260 or worse on the season (AL)
149-115 since 1997. ( 56.4% | 62.3 units )
4-6 this year. ( 40.0% | -1.4 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | KANSAS CITY at TORONTO
TORONTO is 19-7 (+13.1 Units) against the money line in May games this season.
The average score was: TORONTO (5.5) , OPPONENT (4.1)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steves Golf picks the Memorial

Bradley
Rose
Chappel
Donald
Van Pelt
Henely
All 1*

Head To Head

4* Van Pelt -170 Over Fowler

[Can'tPickAWinner]

XpertPicks

THURSDAY

• Play Oklahoma City +4.5 over San Antonio (NBA)---RISK 10% OF YOUR BANKROLL
  9:00 PM EST

Oklahoma City has won 92 of the last 133 games after scoring 105 points or more in their last game and they have won 79 of the last 114 games coming off a win by ten points or more.Oklahoma City has won 47 of the last 70 games when the total posted is greater than 200 points and they have won 82 of the last 138 road games.

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NHL HOCKEY

• Play New York -180 over Montreal (NHL)---RISK 8% OF YOUR BANKROLL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

XpertPicks

THURSDAY BASEBALL

• Play Atlanta +110 over Boston---Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
  7:10 PM EST

Mike Minor has won 8 of the last 9 games when pitching on a Thursday and he has won 16 of the last 24 games when pitching as an underdog of +100 to +150. Mike Minor has won 24 of the last 42 games when pitching in the 1^st half of the season and he has won 45 of the last 79 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs.

• Play Pittsburgh +110 over Los Angeles Dodgers----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
  10:00 PM EST

Dan Haren has lost 30 of the last 50 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and he has lost 20 of the last 34 home games. Dan Haren has lost 25 of the last 41 games when pitching in the 1^st half of the season and he has lost 29 of the last 51 games when pitching as a favorite of -110 or higher.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kevin's Pick(s):
With good defense by Toronto we were able to pick up an underdog winner last night, as they walked off on an error in the bottom of the ninth for a 3-2 victory. I'm coming right back on the Jays tonight...
2 UNIT = Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays - BLUE JAYS TO WIN (-120)
Listed Pitchers: Shields vs Dickey
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.67 units)
The Blue Jays continued their winning ways as of late with a sweep of the Rays last night - their 9th straight victory. They are also 19-5 over their last 24 games, and 32-22 on the season. The Royals on the other hand were swept at home by the Astros yesterday afternoon and have lost 4 straight and 7 of their last 9 games overall to drop to 24-28 on the season. James Shields will take the mound for the Royals, and he is 6-3 with a 2.95 ERA, .252 OBA and 1.17 WHIP. He has been pretty solid all season long, but he has allowed 7 earned runs over his last two starts (13 innings combined) as he gave up 9 hits in each start. The Jays counter with their knuckleballer, R.A. Dickey, who is 5-4 with a 3.95 ERA, .224 OBA and 1.30 WHIP. After a shaky start to the season he has given up 3 or fewer earned runs against in his last 7 starts. He also is 5-1 with a 2.89 ERA, .216 OBA and 1.09 WHIP at home. Take note that the Blue Jays are the best hitting team in baseball right now with a team .831 OPS in May. The next best team OPS is .794 (Colorado) and the Royals are dead last in the Majors in that category at .626. Toronto is also one of the best hitting home teams, while the Royals are one of the worst hitting teams on the road. Note that the Royals are just 3-10 in their last 13 games as an underdog, and 1-9 in their last 10 as an underdog between +110 and +150. The Blue Jays are 15-3 in their last 18 games following a win, 7-0 in their last 7 home games, and 5-0 in their last 5 game 1s of a series. Toronto is also 5-2 in Dickey's last 7 starts and 5-0 in his last 5 home starts. Toronto is 24-10 in their last 34 home games vs the Royals. Although Shields is a great pitcher this Toronto team is playing great all around baseball right now and winning games. I'll take them again tonight to continue their winning streak

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FantasySportsGametime

THURSDAY
NBA BASKETBALL

1000* Play Oklahoma City +4.5 over San Antonio (NBA TOP PLAY)
9:00 PM EST

Oklahoma City has won 28 of the last 40 games when the total posted is between 200 and 209.5 points and they have won 57 of the last 86 games vs. Southwest Division Opponents.Oklahoma City has won 37 of the last 48 games coming off an UNDER the total in their last game and they have won 29 of the last 45 games after having won two of the last three games.

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NHL HOCKEY


50* Play New York Rangers -180 over Montreal (NHL TOP PLAY)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball

1000* Play Toronto -110 over Kansas City (MLB TOP PLAY)


RA Dickey has won 28 of the last 42 home games and he has won 31 of the last 54 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs.RA Dickey has won 27 of the last 43 games when pitching in the 1^st half of the season and he has won 8 of the last 13 games when pitching on a Thursday.

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50* Play St. Louis -130 over San Francisco (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Oakland -130 over Detroit (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BeatYourBookie

THURSDAY

NBA BASKETBALL

10* Play Oklahoma City +4.5 over San Antonio (Top NBA Play)


==================================


NHL HOCKEY


10* Play New York -180 over Montreal (Top NHL Play)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BeatYourBookie

THURSDAY

MLB BASEBALL


10* Play Pittsburgh +110 over LA Dodgers (MLB TOP PLAY)

Pittsburgh is 73-59 when playing in the 1^st half of the season
Pittsburgh is 52-47 when playing as an underdog of +100 or higher
Pittsburgh is 79-57 in night games the last two seasons


10* Play Cincinnati +115 over Arizona (MLB TOP PLAY)

Arizona is 7-17 in home games this season
Arizona is 8-16 when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs
Arizona is 3-9 vs. left-handed starting pitchers this season

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5* Play New York Mets +115 over Philadelphia (MLB BONUS PLAY)
5* Play Atlanta +110 over Boston (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

Thursday night: Mr. Aitch will make a major wager on Minor — 10 units on Los Bravos to swat the Sawx.

BRAVES