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I expect Miami to close the deal tonight and win the series 4-2 without much trouble…
I’ve made a mini-recap about G5 that is the blueprint for tonight’s game:
“I’ve just watched yesterday’s NBA game between MIA & IND and some weird stuff happened: Lebron James w/ foul trouble with just 24 minutes of action; the occasional Paul George’s random offensive explosive game w/ 37 points scored, he had one +30 pts game vs. WAS and another one vs. WAS, so I guess this type of game was due to happen in this series”
IND was able to score 93 points for a nice Off. Rtg = 114.4! However, they didn’t show anything new or surprised the Heat… They had only 13 assists and Roy Hibbert isn’t an offensive threat for them. They scored 93 points primarily because Paul George went off and scored 37 points while hitting 11-19 FG (58%) in CONTESTED SHOTS according to NBA.com! Finally, the Pacers dominated the boards (as usual) w/ 55% reb/rate.
Why I don’t think IND will be competitive tonight:
1) Obviously, LeBron James! James played only 24 minutes and scored just 7 points – career low’s for him! I don’t need to say that he will bounce back tonight b/c this is just common sense… However, note that Paul George is coming from a monumental effort in the last game in which he logged a game high 45 minutes!! He is due for a natural shooting regression and the fact that he will face a “fresh” LeBron James won’t help him either.
Also, without Chris Andersen & James in foul trouble, MIA was really undersized in the last game. After all, James was averaging 8 rebounds per game in the first 4 games of the series and so, IND had a nice spot to dominate down low! The fact that they scored a series high 42 points in the paint in G5 wasn’t a “coincidence”!
2) Effort Levels! I’ve mentioned last night that SAS would want to play w/ nice tempo in order to explore their superior depth over OKC, and once the second quarter started, they put an extra gear w/ their second unit. I expect a similar scenario for tonight’s game… In the last game, 3 IND’s starters logged at least 41 minutes of action in G5 with Hibbert and George Hill playing 38 minutes each! (IND’s bench scored only 6 points)! With them relying so heavily in their starters, I expect a natural physical letdown from IND in here, especially w/ a “fresh” LeBron James on the court, and w/ MIA having more depth right now (Lewis, Allen, Cole and Birdman if he plays are all playing quite well in this series).
3) Referees! I expect MIA to get some natural “home calls” after what happened in the last game @IND w/ LeBron James. I really don’t think that MIA will get only 8 FT’s tonight as I expect them to be super aggressive in here, particularly James.
My fair line for this contest is Miami having a classic blowout line of 10/12 points and so, I’m taking the Heat as my Single Dime Play!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 522 Miami Heat (-8) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Baltimore/Houston Under 9 - 125 Like Baltimore in the game but don't see either team putting up too many runs. Gonzalez has been finding a good bit of form with the O's winning in his last 3 outings as he has only given up 2 runs in each. I see him to quiet the bats the Astros tonight and squeak out a much needed win in another low scoring affair.
Cardinals/Giants No Score 1st Inning This one is a little scary to take the game with the line movement today. Wainwright is absolutely dealing at home and I lean the Cards but something is telling me that there is more too this game so with Bumgarner on the hill for the Giants, expect both pitchers to come out of the gates hot and move through the first inning easily with no blood given.
Los Angeles Angels +110 At this price, I love the road team in Oakland. Garrett Richards has been having a great few outings as of late winning 4 of the last 5 and the one loss came in a game where his opponent thru a near complete game. He has been having a great year and with the strength of Pujols and Trout in this line up, expect them to come out aggressive against Drew Pomeranz
WNBA Game: San Antonio Silver Stars @ Minnesota Lynx Time: Friday 05/30 8:05 PM Eastern
Free Pick: First Half OVER 80 (-110)
The Lynx have come out strong at 5-0 to start the season thanks to an offense that has averaged 87 points per game. The problme for them is that they are allowing over 82 per game. Their five games have seen 87 points per game scored on average in the first half. San Antonio has allowed nearly 40 per game in the first half. The past three seasons, Minnesota is 48-32 OVER in the first-half when they are instilled as the favorite. And they are 17-5 OVER int he first-half at home during that span after an ATS win. Finally, under head coach Cheryl REeve, the Lynx are 12-4 OVER in the first-half in May games. Take this game OVER the first-half total
Regulation only. Figuring they could not beat the Kings in a tight-checking manner, Chicago completely opened things up in Game 5 and went on to win in OT, 5-4. Now what? Will the Blackhawks employ that same strategy here or will they tighten up defensively and try and win that way? Frankly, we’re not sure it’s going to matter. That Minnesota series knocked the heck out of the Blackhawks. Chicago looked extremely beatable when they played in Minnesota and they looked beatable when they played at home. In this series, not much has changed, as the Blackhawks have been outscored in Los Angeles, 9-5. In fact, Chicago has allowed 19 goals against in the past four games with four or more scored against them in each contest. Corey Crawford stole the series victory over Minnesota but it’s a different story in this series, as L.A. keeps burying pucks on him.
Chicago has one road victory over their last five playoff games and that occurred in Game 6 against Minnesota in which Chicago was clearly the second best team on the ice. Los Angeles has endured everything this playoff season and unlike the Blackhawks, they appear to be getting stronger with each passing series. Los Angeles seems to be at their very best when it matters most while Chicago has not played well away from home in the past two series. They’ve gotten by with some very good fortune but it’s going to catch up to them at some point. Don’t get us wrong, Chicago is a great team that can win at any time over any team. However, we can’t ignore Chicago’s struggles away from home. Puck possession, chances, shots on goal and goaltending have all favored the Kings in this series and that’s a bit much for the Blackhawks to overcome on the road in this crucial game in Los Angeles.
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