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SPORTS WAGERS
MLB
N.Y Mets +115 over PHILADELPHIA
The Mets have won three in a row and four of their past five games. During its current three-game modest win streak, New York has outscored the opposition 13-3. Current Mets have 35 hits in 126 career AB’s versus A.J. Burnett for a BA of .278 and a nifty OPS of .816. Burnett has allowed three runs or more in four straight starts. He has a 3.51 ERA after his first 11 starts, a fact that might prevent some from realizing how terrible many of his skills have been. His four-seam fastball velocity has dipped to 91 mph and his swinging strike rate has declined from 11% to 7%. A 78% strand rate has kept his ERA below 4.00. Burnett’s BB/K ratio of 31/53 in 67 innings is more reason to stay clear. In five May starts, Burnett has walked 14 in 29 innings and has posted a 5.29 ERA. His line drive rate is now up to 26% but over his last three starts it’s an alarming 32%. Burnett is being hit hard. He’s allowed 30 hits and 19 earned runs over his last four starts covering 23 innings and now he’s a favorite worth betting against.
Raphael Montero was signed just three years ago as an international free agent. He sped through the Mets system despite being an undersized pitcher (6’0) without a dominant fastball. His career numbers (2.63 ERA, 8½K’s/9) become that much more impressive considering he’s pitched one-third of his 250 innings in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. Montero’s plus-plus control and movement on his pitches make him very tough for hitters to contend with. He throws a fastball with excellent movement from a ¾ arm slot that can reach 95 mph, and complements that with a plus slider and solid-average change-up. There’s a lot to like about Montero’s make-up: good work ethic, repeatable mechanics, easy arm action, solid mound presence, and excellent pitch sequencing. Montero has displayed both the risks of an inexperienced pitcher and the upside that makes him a top prospect in his three starts. His first two starts yielded 8 ER in 10.3 IP, but just when it seemed that he might not be ready for the majors, he threw a gem, holding Arizona to one run over six innings while striking out 10. The Phillies are hitting only .232 at home and only .236 against RHP and they’ve never faced Montero before.
N.Y. YANKEES -1½ +151 over Minnesota
The Twins have scored 15 runs over their past nine games and have only scored two or more twice over that span. Minnesota has one win over their past seven games, so the timing for this three-game set at New York comes at the worst possible time. Yankee Stadium has been a house of horrors for the Twinkies, as they have just 14 wins in the past 54 games here. The Twins are not only going bad, but they are hitting just .232 against southpaws and will face one here in Vidal Nuno. Nuno is an interesting case. He turned some heads with a solid 2012 season at Double-A (though he was a bit old for the level), followed up by an impressive spring training and start to 2013 at Triple-A where he posted a 1.54 ERA, 10K’s/9 and .157 oppBA. Those were very impressive numbers for a 48th round draft pick in ’09 who has never been on any top prospect lists. He was actually released from the Indians farm system in ’10 before spending some time playing independent ball. That is where the Yankees found him and he moved quickly through their system to earn his first call-up. Nuno does not have a typical starter’s frame at 5-11 195, nor does he have a plus pitch in his repertoire. He has to rely on a deceptive delivery along with a nearly side-arm slot to keeps hitters off-balance. Arm angle makes him much tougher on left-handed batters. Nuno throws four pitches and can locate all of them well: fastball, slider, curveball, and change-up. Fastball tops out at 91 mph with pretty good location. Nuno’s 5.49 ERA is skewed because of some early disasters but he’s been coming on recently with three very good outings in his last four starts. On Saturday against the South Side at US Cellular, Nuno threw a respectable 67 of 101 pitches for strikes and was outstanding following a three-run first inning. He’s also had solid outings recently against both the Angels and Pirates. The Twins have never seen Nuno before and that, too, works to his advantage.
Ricky Nolasco has four quality starts in 10 tries this season. He has just two wins and one of those occurred back in April when he got whacked by the Indians but Minnesota scored 10 times and the Twins won 10-7. Nolasco’s WHIP is 1.57 and his BAA is .322. On the road, Nolasco’s ERA is 8.63 and his BAA is .384. In 32.1 road innings, Nolasco has allowed 53 hits. Dude has been batting practice out there and the Yankees come into this one swinging well with 20 runs scored over their past four games and that includes six or more in St. Louis in two of the three games there. Nolasco’s groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 32%/23%/45% is more proof that the move from the NL to the AL is one that he’s not adjusting to well. With his confidence low and his skills worse, the Pinstripes figure to score early and often off Nolasco.
Pittsburgh +120 over LOS ANGELES
Once among the AL's most promising young starters, injuries derailed the career of Francisco Liriano but last year he saw a career revival in Pittsburgh that quickly restored his relevance. The question swirling around his name this spring was: How much of last year's comeback was real and how much was luck-driven? He shaved a walk and a half off his walk rate while still whiffing a batter an inning. Liriano fully regained his groundball mojo, boosting GB% back to half of balls put in play. Liriano is still only 30 and he's using the same formula that he rose to prominence years ago in Minnesota—a combination of strikeouts and grounders—to evolve into a formidable starter in the NL. Through two months of the new season, those skills remain intact and Liriano has the chance to put up solid numbers the rest of the way, despite his 5.06 ERA through his first 11 starts. Fact is, Liriano is pitching as well as he ever has with a groundball rate of 53%, a swinging strike rate of 15% (the highest in the NL among starters with seven starts or more) and 58 K’s in 59 innings. A very unlucky 68% strand rate has led to his inflated ERA but his skills say big regression is forthcoming. That said, this one is more about playing a high percentage angle than it is about backing Liriano.
Josh Beckett is coming off a no-hitter and that’s the angle here. Going against a pitcher coming off a no-no has returned big profits over the years. Throwing a no-hitter is one of the rarest feats in a sports career. It will only occur a handful of times in a season and Beckett did it against the Phillies in his last start. After the fifth inning of said start, intensity increases, focus increases and every pitch matters. For pitchers, a no hitter is the pinnacle of accomplishments. After that rare accomplishment there are interviews galore, plus a million phone calls, text messages and emails all offering congratulations. The no-hitter does not end when the game is final. It ends after four days of answering calls and everything else that goes with it. Now Beckett will be sent back out there and there is very little chance of him pitching a strong game. Besides history saying so, Beckett’s skills are not nearly as good as his ERA suggests they are and that’s something we’ll elaborate more on at a later date. For this one, the "game after pitching a no-hitter" angle is in play.
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MLB
N.Y Mets +115 over PHILADELPHIA
The Mets have won three in a row and four of their past five games. During its current three-game modest win streak, New York has outscored the opposition 13-3. Current Mets have 35 hits in 126 career AB’s versus A.J. Burnett for a BA of .278 and a nifty OPS of .816. Burnett has allowed three runs or more in four straight starts. He has a 3.51 ERA after his first 11 starts, a fact that might prevent some from realizing how terrible many of his skills have been. His four-seam fastball velocity has dipped to 91 mph and his swinging strike rate has declined from 11% to 7%. A 78% strand rate has kept his ERA below 4.00. Burnett’s BB/K ratio of 31/53 in 67 innings is more reason to stay clear. In five May starts, Burnett has walked 14 in 29 innings and has posted a 5.29 ERA. His line drive rate is now up to 26% but over his last three starts it’s an alarming 32%. Burnett is being hit hard. He’s allowed 30 hits and 19 earned runs over his last four starts covering 23 innings and now he’s a favorite worth betting against.
Raphael Montero was signed just three years ago as an international free agent. He sped through the Mets system despite being an undersized pitcher (6’0) without a dominant fastball. His career numbers (2.63 ERA, 8½K’s/9) become that much more impressive considering he’s pitched one-third of his 250 innings in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. Montero’s plus-plus control and movement on his pitches make him very tough for hitters to contend with. He throws a fastball with excellent movement from a ¾ arm slot that can reach 95 mph, and complements that with a plus slider and solid-average change-up. There’s a lot to like about Montero’s make-up: good work ethic, repeatable mechanics, easy arm action, solid mound presence, and excellent pitch sequencing. Montero has displayed both the risks of an inexperienced pitcher and the upside that makes him a top prospect in his three starts. His first two starts yielded 8 ER in 10.3 IP, but just when it seemed that he might not be ready for the majors, he threw a gem, holding Arizona to one run over six innings while striking out 10. The Phillies are hitting only .232 at home and only .236 against RHP and they’ve never faced Montero before.
N.Y. YANKEES -1½ +151 over Minnesota
The Twins have scored 15 runs over their past nine games and have only scored two or more twice over that span. Minnesota has one win over their past seven games, so the timing for this three-game set at New York comes at the worst possible time. Yankee Stadium has been a house of horrors for the Twinkies, as they have just 14 wins in the past 54 games here. The Twins are not only going bad, but they are hitting just .232 against southpaws and will face one here in Vidal Nuno. Nuno is an interesting case. He turned some heads with a solid 2012 season at Double-A (though he was a bit old for the level), followed up by an impressive spring training and start to 2013 at Triple-A where he posted a 1.54 ERA, 10K’s/9 and .157 oppBA. Those were very impressive numbers for a 48th round draft pick in ’09 who has never been on any top prospect lists. He was actually released from the Indians farm system in ’10 before spending some time playing independent ball. That is where the Yankees found him and he moved quickly through their system to earn his first call-up. Nuno does not have a typical starter’s frame at 5-11 195, nor does he have a plus pitch in his repertoire. He has to rely on a deceptive delivery along with a nearly side-arm slot to keeps hitters off-balance. Arm angle makes him much tougher on left-handed batters. Nuno throws four pitches and can locate all of them well: fastball, slider, curveball, and change-up. Fastball tops out at 91 mph with pretty good location. Nuno’s 5.49 ERA is skewed because of some early disasters but he’s been coming on recently with three very good outings in his last four starts. On Saturday against the South Side at US Cellular, Nuno threw a respectable 67 of 101 pitches for strikes and was outstanding following a three-run first inning. He’s also had solid outings recently against both the Angels and Pirates. The Twins have never seen Nuno before and that, too, works to his advantage.
Ricky Nolasco has four quality starts in 10 tries this season. He has just two wins and one of those occurred back in April when he got whacked by the Indians but Minnesota scored 10 times and the Twins won 10-7. Nolasco’s WHIP is 1.57 and his BAA is .322. On the road, Nolasco’s ERA is 8.63 and his BAA is .384. In 32.1 road innings, Nolasco has allowed 53 hits. Dude has been batting practice out there and the Yankees come into this one swinging well with 20 runs scored over their past four games and that includes six or more in St. Louis in two of the three games there. Nolasco’s groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 32%/23%/45% is more proof that the move from the NL to the AL is one that he’s not adjusting to well. With his confidence low and his skills worse, the Pinstripes figure to score early and often off Nolasco.
Pittsburgh +120 over LOS ANGELES
Once among the AL's most promising young starters, injuries derailed the career of Francisco Liriano but last year he saw a career revival in Pittsburgh that quickly restored his relevance. The question swirling around his name this spring was: How much of last year's comeback was real and how much was luck-driven? He shaved a walk and a half off his walk rate while still whiffing a batter an inning. Liriano fully regained his groundball mojo, boosting GB% back to half of balls put in play. Liriano is still only 30 and he's using the same formula that he rose to prominence years ago in Minnesota—a combination of strikeouts and grounders—to evolve into a formidable starter in the NL. Through two months of the new season, those skills remain intact and Liriano has the chance to put up solid numbers the rest of the way, despite his 5.06 ERA through his first 11 starts. Fact is, Liriano is pitching as well as he ever has with a groundball rate of 53%, a swinging strike rate of 15% (the highest in the NL among starters with seven starts or more) and 58 K’s in 59 innings. A very unlucky 68% strand rate has led to his inflated ERA but his skills say big regression is forthcoming. That said, this one is more about playing a high percentage angle than it is about backing Liriano.
Josh Beckett is coming off a no-hitter and that’s the angle here. Going against a pitcher coming off a no-no has returned big profits over the years. Throwing a no-hitter is one of the rarest feats in a sports career. It will only occur a handful of times in a season and Beckett did it against the Phillies in his last start. After the fifth inning of said start, intensity increases, focus increases and every pitch matters. For pitchers, a no hitter is the pinnacle of accomplishments. After that rare accomplishment there are interviews galore, plus a million phone calls, text messages and emails all offering congratulations. The no-hitter does not end when the game is final. It ends after four days of answering calls and everything else that goes with it. Now Beckett will be sent back out there and there is very little chance of him pitching a strong game. Besides history saying so, Beckett’s skills are not nearly as good as his ERA suggests they are and that’s something we’ll elaborate more on at a later date. For this one, the "game after pitching a no-hitter" angle is in play.
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