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Game of the Day: Spurs at Thunder
San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City (-3.5, 206.5)
San Antonio leads series 3-2.
The San Antonio Spurs are one victory away from returning to the NBA Finals but have a dubious streak to overcome if they are to end the Western Conference finals on Saturday. San Antonio owns a 3-2 lead in the series as it returns to Oklahoma City, where the Spurs have lost nine consecutive games dating back to March 16, 2012. The Thunder easily won Games 3 and 4 at home and look to force a Game 7 in San Antonio.
The Spurs rolled to a convincing 117-89 victory in Game 5 as the home venue continues to be the most important facet of the series. San Antonio has won its three home games by an average of 26.7 points and lost the two outings in Oklahoma City by an average of 11. Thunder star Kevin Durant isn’t looking at a Game 6 win as a mere formality despite Oklahoma City’s long home-court domination of the Spurs. “We’re guaranteed 48 more minutes,” Durant told reporters. “It’s been an up-and-down series but we’ve got to find a way to come with it in Game 6.”
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, TNT
LINE HISTORY: Oklahoma City opened as low as -3 and jump to -3.5. The total opened 206.5 and jumped to 207 before quickly dropping back down to 206.5.
INJURY WATCH: N/A
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The home team has obviously dominated this playoff series so far, going a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS. However, the level of dominance has been truly amazing.The home team has led by 23, 35, 20, 27, 33 point margins in the five games, while the road team's largest leads have only been 2, 5, 3, 8, 7 in each game before eventually getting blown out." - Covers Experts' Steve Merril
WHAT BOOKS SAY: "In a series that has been dominated by the home teams - the average margin of victory for the home team through the first five games is 20.4 points - we expect the trend to continue in Game 6. We opened the Thunder at -3 and are now dealing -3.5, with the Thunder seeing all the action with 97 percent on the spread and 93 percent on the moneyline." - Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.
ABOUT THE SPURS: Veteran power forward Tim Duncan was back on his game with 22 points and 12 rebounds after averaging 12.5 points and seven boards in the two losses in Oklahoma City. He shot a series-best 8-of-13 from the field in Game 5 and played with an extreme level of determination. “Just wanted to put a better one on the floor and, obviously, didn’t want to go down three games in a row,” Duncan said afterward. Duncan had more room to operate inside due to the decision to stretch the floor by starting perimeter-oriented Matt Bonner over center Tiago Splitter.
ABOUT THE THUNDER: Oklahoma City’s longtime home dominance means nothing when the ball tips off in Game 6, and failing to win a 10th straight time would equate to a disappointing end to the season. The Thunder looked bad in Games 1 and 2 but bounced back, and coach Scott Brooks is at a loss to grasp the one-sided nature of each contest in the series. “It’s interesting, you really can’t explain it because both teams are really good and both teams compete, but it’s the way it is,” Brooks said after Game 5. “We have to regroup and come back better in a few days. We’ve always had a great comeback with better energy and better defensive attitude, and that’s what we’re going to have to come back with.”
TRENDS:
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Favorite is 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings.
* Spurs are 4-12-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings.
* Spurs are 1-10 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Oklahoma City.
COVERS CONSENSUS: 59 percent of bets are on Oklahoma City -2.5. 71 percent of bets are on Over 206.5. -
Spurs/Thunder #6: The Game Inside the Game
By JUSTIN HARTLING
Before Game #5 tipped off in San Antonio, the take here was one of this series being “a haystack filled with needles”, and what did Thursday bring to the databases? More of the same. Through five games there has not be a single 4th quarter minute in which the two starting lineups were going head-to-head, leaving the overall numbers through 240 minutes to be of little or no use. It is in adroitly sorting through the subsets that one can pave the way to a proper Game #6 handicap.
Off of those dismal losses in Oklahoma City the burden of adjustment fell to Gregg Popovich, who has not only built a Hall of Fame career by deftly making them, but was accustomed to experimentation with this particular group – he used 30 different starting lineups during the regular season. But on Thursday it was one that he had not used before that made the difference.
Popovich needed to get Serge Ibaka away from the basket to open up driving lanes, an integral part of the San Antonio offense, especially those unique passing angles in which forays to the basket end up being kicked out to 3-point shooters. The move was to start Matt Bonner instead of Tiago Splitter, despite the fact that a Bonner-Tony Parker-Tim Duncan-Kawhi Leonard-Danny Green quintet had only played together for 27 minutes the entire regular season, creating a lot of additional space for the Thunder to guard.
To say that it worked would be an understatement. The Spurs exploded for 65 first-half points on 25-41 shooting, with more than twice as many assists as turnovers. Ironically Bonner went 0-4 in the game and did not get a rebound, assist or steal, but his presence was enough to disrupt the OKC defensive chemistry. That did not change in the third quarter, and the game broke so wide open that when Tony Parker left at 2:05 he did not return, nor did Tim Duncan after his exit at 1:16. No San Antonio player logged more than Leonard’s 32:37, which makes it back-to-back games of low minutes across the board.
While Bonner stat line could not show his effectiveness, the one player that is emerging that can play a similar role is Boris Diaw. Diaw had 13 points, six rebounds and three assists over 28:10, after his double-double in Game #4, which will relegate Splitter even further down the bench as this series goes on. It is not that Splitter has played poorly; his particular talents are not as needed in this matchup. Diaw is playing with a lot of confidence, and creates matchup difficulties for the Thunder big men.
Much of the prelude here to Game #5 also focused on the dubious management of the OKC roster by Scott Brooks in Game #4, when Ibaka, Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durrant logged far more minutes than they should have. It showed. It was not just the Popovich lineup change that broke down the Thunder defense, but also the fact that those defenders were a step slow. In Game #4 they had seven steals and six blocked shots in the first half; on Thursday it was six steals and four blocks for the entire game. If there was a silver lining to being blown out, it was getting those key cogs off the court much earlier this time (although Durant still logged a game-high 36:59).
Now to Saturday, where the markets have adjusted to OKC -3.5, and it would not be a surprise to see 4’s showing by tipoff. The Thunder have won and covered nine straight over San Antonio on this court since a loss in mid-March of 2016, with no game closer than six points, most of them at a high-market visibility. Brooks will have fresher legs to work with than on Thursday, and do not be surprised if he makes a counter of his own – if Splitter dos not start, there is no particular reason for Kendrick Perkins to open on the floor for the Thunder. It could end up being a lot of small-ball, and a more open flow, which can also impact the Total.
As for that Total, the Thursday flow put more of those needles into the haystack – a dead Over pace at halftime, and at 168 into the final stanza, before the one-sided nature of the game brought the flow to a crawl. The teams were already at 198 with 4:16 remaining, yet produced just eight points the rest of the way. The Spurs were 1-6 with two turnovers over that final stretch, providing yet more useless statistical data, and when you remove that from the equation their dominating offensive numbers go through the roof.
The pattern of Big First Half/Dead End-game has repeated throughout this series. It can lead to a more than reasonable conclusion that if there is a close game, and the requisite scrambling, the Total for Game #6 is too low. But you have to be careful with that – Popovich would not hesitate to wave a white flag if his team falls behind by a margin (as in Game #4), saving as much energy as possible for the Monday climax. Weighting that properly is part of the challenge, before you head to the betting windows and pull the trigger.Comment
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Spurs-Thunder opening at high total despite trend
By JUSTIN HARTLING
The San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder are still getting high totals from books despite going under in their past four games.
During this series the Thunder and Spurs have only topped the total in Game 1, since then the teams have averaged 198.8 points per game and have only cracked 205 points once. Overall this season between both the playoffs and the regular season, the teams have averaged a score of 203.7.
The current line for the game is 206.5.Comment
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Spurs head to OKC
Oklahoma City (69-31) at San Antonio (73-26)
Western Conference Finals
Game 6 – Spurs lead series 3-2
Tip-off: Saturday, 8:35 p.m. ET
Line and Total: Oklahoma City -3.5, Total: 207
The Spurs look to punch their ticket to the NBA Finals with a win on Saturday night against the Thunder.
This series has been dominated by the home team with SU and ATS wins in each of the first five games going to the host. Game 5 proved no different as the Spurs took the victory by a score of 117-89 as five-point favorites. They shot 51.3% from the field in the win and have now hit 50% or more of their field goals in each of their three home games. The contest got out of hand in the second half, and after the Spurs took a 10-point lead into halftime, they came out and outscored Oklahoma City by 18 in the final two quarters. Tim Duncan lead San Antonio with a team-high 22 points as Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook just did not have the firepower to carry the team themselves, netting a combined 46 points in the loss. One area that the Spurs dominated was on the boards, out-rebounding the Thunder 48-35 while having six different players with 4+ rebounds.
Heading back to Oklahoma City should be interesting as the Spurs are one of the better road teams this year, going 32-16 SU (26-22 ATS) in away games while the Thunder are a solid 40-10 SU (28-21 ATS) at home. Going back three seasons, Oklahoma City holds a 13-9 SU (14-7 ATS) advantage when these two teams face off, and has won nine straight games SU and ATS when playing at home. In their two wins at home in this series, OKC has held the Spurs under 40% shooting in each game while forcing 14.5 turnovers per contest. Bettors should take notice that San Antonio is 12-2 ATS in road games after failing to cover two of their last three games ATS this season. On the other hand, the Thunder are 25-13 ATS (65.8%) in home games revenging a loss versus an opponent over the past two seasons. Neither team brings any significant injuries into this game.
San Antonio was one of the more efficient teams all season long and is hitting 49% of their field goal attempts in this postseason. They cannot get anything going in Oklahoma City though, making just 69-of-174 shots (39.7%) in the two contests of this series. PF Tim Duncan (17.6 PPG, 9.0 RPG in series) had a big double-double (22 points, 12 rebounds) in Game 5 but averaged just 12.5 PPG (40% FG) in the two games so far in OKC. One thing that has been missing from his game in these conference finals have been blocks as he has just four in the series after swatting away 1.9 BPG in the regular season. PG Tony Parker (14.2 PPG, 5.8 APG in series) had just twelve points in Thursday’s victory and has played more than 30 minutes just once in this series. He also struggled in the team’s two losses, netting just 11.5 PPG on 11-of-24 shooting.
SF Kawhi Leonard (10.8 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 1.6 SPG in series) had his highest rebound total (7) of the series in Game 5 while adding 14 points on 4-of-7 shooting. He has not been aggressive against the Thunder, taking just 9.4 shots per game and hitting them at a 43% clip. SG Manu Ginobili (15.2 PPG, 3.4 APG, 1.0 SPG in series) had another solid game (19 points, 6 assists, 4 rebounds) on Thursday and has been very efficient with his shot selection in this series, making 57% of his field goals, 61% of this three-pointers and is perfect (10-for-10) from the charity stripe.
Oklahoma City has been a great offense during these playoffs, scoring 102.2 PPG (45% FG), but have let the Spurs really slow them down to the tune of 96.4 PPG (45% FG) in this series. There has been a stark contrast between home and away though, as they are putting up 105.5 PPG in their two home games and just 90.3 PPG in San Antonio. SF Kevin Durant (24.8 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.2 SPG in series) had 25 points on 11-of-21 shooting in the Game 5 loss while taking just four shots from the free throw line; making just one. He has scored more than 30 points just once over the five games of this series after doing so in 8-of-13 previous playoff contests this year.
PG Russell Westbrook (25.4 PPG, 7.2 APG, 5.4 RPG, 2.6 SPG in series) had 21 points to go along with seven assists and three steals on Thursday while taking a postseason low 12 shots. As usual, he was able to get to the free-throw line plenty, making 7-of-9 shots from there and is now 35-for-39 (90%) in the series. PF Serge Ibaka (10.0 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 3.0 BPG in series) had just six points and two rebounds while adding two blocks in the loss on Thursday. He has seen his points and blocks decrease in each of the three games he’s played in this series. PG Reggie Jackson (10.0 PPG, 3.0 APG, 3.0 RPG in series) put up double-digit points (11) for the third time in this series in Game 5 and has been on the court for 30+ minutes in two of the past three contests.Comment
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StatFox Super Situations
NBA | SAN ANTONIO at OKLAHOMA CITY
Play Under - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after a blowout loss by 15 points or more
90-46 since 1997. ( 66.2% | 39.4 units )
8-3 this year. ( 72.7% | 4.7 units )
NBA | SAN ANTONIO at OKLAHOMA CITY
Play On - Any team vs the money line (SAN ANTONIO) after allowing 55 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games against opponent after allowing 60 points or more in the first half last game
161-128 since 1997. ( 55.7% | 66.6 units )
21-18 this year. ( 53.8% | 11.5 units )
NBA | SAN ANTONIO at OKLAHOMA CITY
Play Over - All teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 with a winning record on the season playing another winning team, on Saturday games
153-88 since 1997. ( 63.5% | 56.2 units )
18-10 this year. ( 64.3% | 7.0 units )Comment
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Today's NBA Picks
San Antonio at Oklahoma City
The Thunder look to stay alive in the series as they host a San Antonio team that is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games at Oklahoma City. Oklahoma City is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Thunder favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-3 1/2). Here are all of today's playoff picks.
SATURDAY, MAY 31
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. ESTGame 523-524: San Antonio at Oklahoma City (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 124.640; Oklahoma City 132.444
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 8; 203
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 3 1/2; 207
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-3 1/2); UnderComment
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WNBA Basketball Picks
New York at Indiana
The Liberty (2-3) head to Indiana tonight to take on a Fever team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games against a team with a losing record. New York is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the Liberty favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: New York (+4). Here are all of today's WNBA picks.
SATURDAY, MAY 31
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. ESTGame 601-602: New York at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 109.407; Indiana 107.423
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 2; 138
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 4; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New York (+4); UnderComment
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Today's MLB Picks
Atlanta at Miami
The Marlins look to bounce back from their 3-2 loss to the Braves last night as they host an Atlanta team that is 0-5 in its last 5 games after allowing 2 runs or less in the previous game. Miami is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Marlins favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Miami (+100). Here are all of today's picks.
SATURDAY, MAY 31
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. ESTGame 951-952: San Francisco at St. Louis (2:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Petit) 14.823; St. Louis (Wacha) 16.321
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-150); OverGame 953-954: NY Mets at Philadelphia (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (deGrom) 13.676; Philadelphia (Kendrick) 15.286
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-130); UnderGame 955-956: Atlanta at Miami (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Santana) 14.773; Miami (Turner) 16.036
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+100); OverGame 957-958: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Hammel) 15.576; Milwaukee (Peralta) 14.549
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+130); UnderGame 959-960: Pittsburgh at LA Dodgers (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Cumpton) 15.498; LA Dodgers (Ryu) 14.648
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 6
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-160); 7
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+140); UnderGame 961-962: Cincinnati at Arizona (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cueto) 15.378; Arizona (McCarthy) 14.826
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-115); OverGame 963-964: Kansas City at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Brooks) 15.871; Toronto (Stroman) 15.266
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/AGame 965-966: Minnesota at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Correia) 15.155; NY Yankees (Tanaka) 16.789
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-250); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-250); OverGame 967-968: Baltimore at Houston (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 15.886; Houston (Keuchel) 15.148
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Houston (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+105); UnderGame 969-970: Tampa Bay at Boston (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) 14.773; Boston (De La Rosa) 15.263
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-115); OverGame 971-972: LA Angels at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Skaggs) 16.198; Oakland (Milone) 14.479
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Oakland (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+110); UnderGame 973-974: Detroit at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Smyly) 15.683; Seattle (Young) 14.679
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-135); OverGame 975-976: Texas at Washington (12:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Tepesch) 15.403; Washington (Fister) 14.676
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Washington (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+125); OverGame 977-978: San Diego at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Ross) 14.558; White Sox (Rienzo) 15.621
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+100); UnderGame 979-980: Colorado at Cleveland (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Morales) 13.903; Cleveland (Bauer) 15.429
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-120); UnderComment
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Ecks and Bacon
Ben Lee won on Friday in the NBA Playoffs with the Heat -7/Pacers.
Ben lee lost on Friday in the NHL Playoffs with the KIngs -$130/Blackhawks.
"Mr Chalk" won on Friday in MLB in InterLeague play with the Nationals -$165/Rangers.
For Saturday in the NBA Playoffs E&B like the Spurs +3.5/Thunder.
For Staurday in MLB in the American League "Mr Chalk" likes the Yankees -$240/Twins.
Ben lee is 7-5 +$127 for week thirty one 135-156-5 -$2780.
"Mr Chalk" is 24-24 -$617 for the 2014 MLB season.
All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted.Comment
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MLB Midweek Series – Five Key Takeaways
It is time to once again round the bases of the MLB Weekday Series from Point Blank range, isolating key edges that can put you far ahead of the game in the days ahead.
Dodgers – Josh Beckett, and what’s next
While Beckett’s no-hitter at Philadelphia on Sunday certainly came as a surprise, he has been around long enough that not many will be in a hurry to adjust their power ratings. He is not going to be considered a “find”. If anything, there are some metrics that will lead some in the marketplace to want to play against him, with a .211 BABIP and 85.4 percent LOB rate that are extreme baseball fortune through his nine starts, and especially on Friday, off of those 128 no-no pitches. But there is genuinely something good going on here that shows evidence of being sustainable, which will matter over the course of the season.
Beckett was on a Hall of Fame arc until 2010, when injuries began to take a toll. Injuries can wreck the career of a pitcher in The Show, and after he underwent surgery last July for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome (a rib was removed that had been pressuring a nerve), the Dodgers were not entirely optimistic (hence, Dan Haren and Paul Maholm). But Beckett worked hard to rehab, and his velocity counts show him to be at full health – his last pitch that struck out Chase Utley on Sunday was clocked at 94 mph. Not bad, as the 128th offering.
Here is the key – because of a couple of trips to the DL, Beckett only worked 534 1/3 innings from 2010-2013. In that same span, there were 21 starters that worked over 800, and Beckett’s count checks in at #85. Could that lighter workload have actually enhanced his ability to pitch longer into his career, instead of the injuries short-circuiting it? It is an intriguing notion. And from a statistical standpoint it might be savvy to hit “delete” for 2013, with his last five starts tangling up data-bases with an 0-3/6.75 when he was clearly damaged goods (as a rule of thumb, bad outings by a pitcher before he goes on the DL need to be discounted in your data-bases).
Beckett has a lot of savvy on the mound, including the pressure of 13 post-season starts at 7-3/3.07. That understanding has him using his curveball more, and his sinker less, at this stage, and while the draining pitch count at Philadelphia could be a short-term issue, the confidence gained from that outing could be a major plus over time. Yes, the ensuing BABIBP and LOB rates will not allow his ERA to stay where it is. But there is another statistical takeaway that adds legitimacy to what he has accomplished so far – of the 108 pitchers that have worked 50 IP or more, his difficulty of batters faced (“DBF”) is #3. He has faced a collective OPS of .744, with only six teams posting a mark above that.
Red Sox – John Lackey, and another tale of Beckett
No, this is not going to be a tale of the Red Sox right-hander in a “Waiting for Godot” scenario, but instead a comparison with Josh Beckett, because there is much in common, and each could bring some value over the course of the summer. Both are veteran right-handers with a lot of savvy through their experience (Lackey has 104 innings over 19 post-season appearances), but may have had the rare fortune of injuries pro-longing their careers, instead of shortening hem. And again there is a case of discarding some counter-productive statistics from a time in which someone was pitching hurt, in order to have a better database.
Lackey’s career could have been over after 2011, a 12-12/6.41 campaign for the Red Sox that should have ended much earlier than it did – an elbow that was going to need Tommy John surgery had nothing left down the stretch, with an 0-3/8.22 over his last six starts that was keyed by 43 hits vs. only 17 K’s. Highlight those games in your data-base, then hit delete, because they do not measure his ability in any meaningful way.
Going through rehab at the age of 33 is not easy. But Lackey did that in 2012, and for as arduous as those processes are, at the same time it was saving his arm from a year of MLB innings. He was slow out of the gate in his 2013 return, opening 1-4/4.05, but then regained the form of his best years, and it was capped by a 2.77 over 25 post-season frames. Counting that October run he is at 3.39 over 286 IP since his return, with 249 K’s vs. only 60 walks. Only once in his 10 pre-surgery seasons did he sport a lower ERA.
The key is that there is evidence that Lackey may be getting even better. His K’s-per-9 are at 8.5 so far, compared to a career 6.8. His walks-per-9 are 1.8, vs. a 3.0 previously. A .322 BABIP tells us that there has not been any geometry in his allowance, although that does factor this misfortunate of pitching in front of a Boston defense that is dead last at .318 in the category. And he has been doing this against a high level of competition – of the 50 pitchers that have thrown at least 50 IP, his DBF is #18. The latter lends added weight to a current xFIP of 3.13 that is a career best, yet something the markets are not appreciating.
Rays – Evan Longoria’s power decline
The Rays have made this column several times already, all for the wrong reasons, and it has added up to a 23-31 mark through the first third of the season. Much of that has been about the injuries that hampered the starting rotation in the early going, which was forcing Joe Madden to deftly juggle his bullpen, and also to occasionally have to use David Price too long in games (his follow-ups from high pitch counts remain problematical). The last thing they needed were problems at the plate, and while the good news is that Ben Zobrist returns this weekend, the bad is that Longoria’s power has been missing.
Longoria was sensational in 2013, a .269/.343/.498, with 32 home runs, plus superb defense. It was a Top 10 campaign among position players through just about any of the advanced WAR-type metrics. At only 28 entering this season, one could make a case that his best was still ahead. But at the one-third mark of the 2014 schedule here are the numbers - .264/.325/.377, with only five HR’s. The .264 would be his career low, despite being amped a bit by a .319 BABIP. The on-base is far below his career .355, with a 7.7 percent walk rate drastically off of the 10.7 precedent.
But the real issue is the power. Longoria’s career SLG’s have been .531, .526, .507, .495, .527 and .498. That is a model of consistently, so the current .377 is a cause for alarm this deep into a season – slap hitters like Brett Gardner (.384) and Dee Gordon (.378 to Thursday) are right above him! And it is not as though there have been any recent positive signs – he has one extra base hit, a solo HR, over his last 17 games, and outside of that blast only one other rbi.
Longoria is not protected well by a mediocre lineup, but the problem with that conventional thinking is the walk rate – one would expect it to be higher, as pitchers worked around him. It isn’t. The power drainage comes from the nature of his contact to this point. While his line drive rate has been solid, the 44.8 percent ground-balls are a career high (no other season above 39.1), while the 32.1 percent fly-balls are by far a career low, with no other season below 40.5. Those tables bear watching closely – until there is more elevation, those power counts are going to remain low. And the Rays simply can’t afford that these days.
Marlins – Steve Cishek (quietly) rolls on
Even without Jose Fernandez the Marlins have a legitimate chance to hang around in the N.L. East, largely because the Braves lack the punch, and the Nationals the health, to establish any distance in the standings. And with Memorial Day having passed it is time to look at a guy that will make a significant difference in their playoff chase, yet one that remains remarkably under the radar.
Memorial Day was used as the reference point, because it was at that time last season that Cishek settled in to his groove, and what a groove is has been – over a full 162-game cycle he has worked to a 1.41 tune, with 40 saves in 42 chances. If you do that in an individual season you are in the Cy Young race; do it over a different calendar cycle and not many notice.
Cishek’s career allowance is now at 2.41 over 206 appearances, backed up by three prime peripherals – a 9.6 K’s-per-9; 52.8 percent ground ball rate; and only 0.3 HR’s-per-9, at a 4.3 ratio of HR’s per FB. Consider where that puts him - of the pitchers that have worked at least 200 innings since he came up in 2010, how many others have more than 9.0 K’s-per-9 and a GB rate over 50 percent? Only Johnny Venters. Yes, the HR rates might seem to be outliers, but his style could keep it at that level – of 81 batters faced this season there have only been 14 fly ball outs. It is tough to square the ball up against him and get it in the air.
The Marlins are not a deep team, and as such there is not much margin for error – 11 of their wins have come by a single run. But while they can make them appearing unimposing, the ability of Cishek to cement those close wins needs to be factored carefully in your processes.
Royals – The Hitting Coach Carousel
Early in the season there was a take here on the continued lack of development of the Kansas City offense, despite having a cluster of talented young players all come up through the system around the same time (http://www.***********/articles/arti...?theArt=368665). After 52 games of continued misery at the plate it was time for a change on Thursday, with hitting coach Pedro Grifol being “reassigned”, and Dale Sveum promoted to the role. That continued a bizarre shuffle that makes Sveum the sixth to take on that role since the end of the end of the 2012 season, when Kevin Seitzer was fired. And it almost assuredly has played a part in the lack of development of those young hitters.
First note that the firing of Seitzer not only started the chain reaction, but may have been the worst move of all. His current job? Hitting coach in Toronto, where the Blue Jays are bashing the ball better than anyone else in the Majors. There was some concern when the OPS fell off from .744 (#7) to #.716 (#15) from 2011 to 2012, which led to his dismissal, but since then it has been a free fall – the Royals only managed a .694 LY, rating #21, and so far this season they are tied for #29 at .659, with a .352 SLG that is dead last.
Kansas City is not just last in HR’s with 22, but last by a wide margin. Salvador Perez leads the team with five; 93 other players have that many. And Sveum understands where the problem is, as he told the Kansas City Star – “Elevation. We’ve swung at pitches down in the zone way too much. And from thigh high to the top of the strike zone, we’re not doing enough damage.” The numbers back that up – while they do have the best strikeout rate in the Majors (only 15.3 percent), it has come from putting too many ground-balls into play, a 49.6 rate (only Pittsburgh has done it at a higher clip).
How much difference can Sveum make? Having been a manager he is aware of how massaging egos is a big part of the process. But with so many different hitting coaches over such a short cycle, it is going to take a lot of skill to sort through what has been baseball chaos. Perhaps some of these players are not as bad as they have shown, but the team simply has not created the atmosphere for development. This will be a good place to focus your handicapping microscopic as the season progresses.Comment
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Brandon Lang
100 Dimes - Oklahoma City Thunder -3 1/2 at home over the San Antonio Spurs, 8:30 PM ESTComment
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FantasySportsGametime
SATURDAY
NBA BASKETBALL
1000* Play Oklahoma City -3.5 over San Antonio (NBA TOP PLAY)
8:30 PM EST
Oklahoma City has won 42 of the last 52 home games when the total posted is between 200 and 209.5 points and they have won 23 of the last 28 games when playing on a Saturday.Oklahoma City has won 5 of the last 6 games when trailing in a playoff series and they are averaging 107 points a game at home this season.
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FantasySportsGametime
MLB Baseball
1000* Play NY Yankees -240 over Minnesota (MLB TOP PLAY)
New York has won 70 of the last 108 games when playing as a favorite of -150 or higher and they have won 77 of the last 129 day games.New York has won 94 of the last 172 games coming off a loss in their last game and they have won 40 of the last 60 games after scoring one run or less in their last game.
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50* Play Los Angeles Dodgers -150 over Pittsburgh (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Washington -140 over Texas (MLB BONUS PLAY)Comment
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BeatYourBookie
SATURDAY
NBA BASKETBALL
10* Play Oklahoma City -3.5 over San Antonio (Top NBA Play)
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