If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.
MLB Game: New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
Time: Monday 06/02 7:05 PM Eastern
Pick: New York -108 (moneyline)
The Mets took a flyer on Bartolo Colon, and he is starting to prove he still has something left in the tank. Colon has pitched great in his last two turns where he has allowed two runs total, covering 15.1 innings of work. Colon doesn’t beat himself, as he has walked just seven hitters in over 64 innings. The Mets pen has been sharp of late as well, allowing nine runs in their last 43 innings of work. Philadelphia has skidded into last place in the NL East, by virtue of eight losses in their last 12 games, and they have been victimized at home in 18 of their 30 games here on the season. The Mets have taken advantage of poor home teams where they are now 7-1 in their last eight vs. a team with a losing home record. The Phillies are even worse at home vs. a team with a winning road record at just a woeful 6-15 in their last 21. The Mets have been lethal in this park where they are 18-6 in their last 24 here. Make the play on New York.
2* Tampa Bay -135
2* Cardinals -145
2* Dodgers -1.5 -110
2* Under 7.5 Mets/Phils
1* Cleveland +105
1* Under 7.5 Yankees/Mariners
1* Under 7.5 Royals/Cardinals
1* Under 6.5 W sox/Dodgers
1* Under 7 Pirates/Padres
Analysis: First, the parlay. I hesitated to lay the -150 or whatever mainly because we just don’t typically do that, but also because the Twins just did well in the Bronx, and I can’t tell if it’s Minnesota playing well or the Yankees playing poorly, or both. But, in few limited at-bats the Twins haven’t hit Garza, so I’m not sure they can win the game. However, they are playing well enough to “help” here and get a few. Gibson has just bee horrible lately, and I attribute much of his early success to the fact that few had seen him. I watched him a few times and though perhaps he was “real” but I just don’t think he is. On the road this season he has been miserable, with a 7.77 ERA and a BAA approaching .300. If the Brewers RHH’s can lay off that decent slider he has, they should score plenty, and I am half-expecting the roof to be open, hence the over. There is a 30% chance of T-Storms in Milwaukee, but that diminishes as the evening wears on, and the temperature is right in the mid 70′s or so, so the roof should be open, AND the wind should be out. What I found really interesting is that the Twins as an underdog are 29-16 to the OVER, hence the play here. There’s also more tickets (or there were when I bet it) on the under, so that move is not a false one. It just better not be 7-1 Brewers. However, unless the Twins win a low scoring game, which I don’t see, then unless the White Sox beat Kershaw, then we come out ahead no matter what. Aside from the 8-0 loss to the Cubs, the Brewers have scored 6 or more runs in 6 of the last eight games, so I see this as about 7-3 Milwaukee, but I’ve been wrong before.
I really lean Pirates over the Padres. Perhaps there’s no move to Morton because he’s “Morton” and they played late last night, but they didn’t travel far, and San Diego did. I don’t like Stauffer, or the Padres against a RHP, and I do like the Pirates against RHP much better, so Pirates or nothing. No real opinion on that total.
I really wanted to take Masterson against his old team, and I keep thinking sooner or later Lackey will get drubbed. This could be the day because the Indians are hitting the ball right now. Boston off an emotional series against the Rays, so Cleveland or nothing here for sure.
I can’t back Randy Wolf, HOWEVER, he is in the big park in Miami and again, the Rays are off a tough series with Boston. The only thing I could do here is take the under, but really want 8, not 7.5. Then again, both bullpens struggle, especially the middle of the Fish’s, so perhaps not under, which brings it back to ALL being on Wolf, IMO, and that’s just not something I want my money on either way.
A little surprised the total is going up in the Cardinals game, yet the Cardinals side is not really any more pricey than it was, which is almost a red flag to me. I haven’t looked at ticket counts, but almost don’t have to to know where they are. That red flag tells me I might have to choke on the Royals RL here. They are certainly better against RHP and did show some signs of life til they ran into Buehrle.
I wouldn’t touch Fausto against Bartolo with your money, although in theory I do. They’ve played so many innings and who’s to say what happens there. Quite probably the under, just because people would assume they’d keep scoring and the pens are shot (they are) but that’s exactly when you run into trouble and both of these guys CAN keep the ball down. Or of course suck.
I kinda want to take the Yankees. Clearly under valued after losing to the Twins and now facing Felix, but the Mariners had to fly coast to coast, which is always tough, and with them having been winning over the Tigers (thank you) then THEY are clearly over priced. I don’t like laying -130 on the road with anyone, really. I suppose I’d have to wait and see if Cano is playing and what the Yankees lineup looks like. MAYBE the under, but only w/o Cano (back in New York) because the Mariners have too many good LHH’s and of course the short porch in right. The total is headed to to the over, so it may be now at 7.5
Red Sox are red hot having won 7 straight including sweeping Tampa over the weekend. The Indians played well this weekend as well sweeping Colorado. Boston owned Cleveland last year winning 6 of 7 meetings. We expect that to continue again this year as Boston is just a bad match up for the Indians pitching staff. Red Sox starting pitcher John Lackey has been Boston’s most consistent starter this year. He comes into tonight’s game with a 6-3 record and a 3.27 ERA and has not allowed a run in his last two starts. Justin Masterson starts for Cleveland and he is 1-7 in his last 8 starts vs Boston. Take the Sox.
Comment