6-2-14

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Sports Cash System Play of The Day for Today: 6/2

MLB Baseball
Pittsburgh Pirates / San Diego Padres UNDER 7
(Total Runs Scored)

Overall Record: 266-236

(System Record: 266-13, Won last 3 games)

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HOT CHICKS PICKS / Britney DeLuca

Take San Diego and Pittsburgh to stay - UNDER 7!
Take KANSAS CITY +135 to feel like royalty tonight!
Take CLEVELAND +110 to have a tea party of their own tonight!

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Philly Ross

added:

2* Seattle -125

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By Vince Akins
VegasInsider

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Dodgers are 10-0 since May 11, 2013 as a favorite after a loss in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits and it is not the last game of a series for a net profit of $1000.

PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:

When Clayton Kershaw starts the Dodgers are 0-6 since June 10, 2009 as a home 200+ favorite after throwing more than 100 pitches and allowing no more than three runs in a loss in his previous start for a net profit of $1155 when playing against.

MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

Justin Masterson has produced a team record of 0-11 (+$1,100) since September 11, 2009 as a dog vs a team that has won at least their last three games.

CHOICE TREND:

The Rays are 0-9 since August 31, 2013 after being shutout and it is not the last game of a series for a net profit of $1036 when playing against.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

When John Lackey starts the Red Sox are 3-14 since April 30, 2010 on the road after winning as a home favorite in his last start for a net profit of $1245 when playing against.

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TMC Sports Advisors

Boston -120

Pittsburgh +100

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SPORTS WAGERS

Series Wager - LOS ANGELES -160 over N.Y. Rangers

You may read about or be influenced by the media (and experts) suggesting that the Kings may suffer a letdown or be burnt out after their difficult road to the final. We say hogwash and we say that the Rangers may not win a game. The Rangers had difficulty getting here against three very average teams in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Montreal without the services of Carey Price. Some will argue that Dustin Tokarski played well and while that is true, it doesn’t reflect the mindset of the rest of the team, whose confidence had to be shaken knowing they would be without their best player. The Rangers road to the Cup might just be this league’s easiest road in a very long time and New York was in no way dominating over any of the teams they faced. There’s a reason the West beat up on the East all year during the regular season and it’s about to be on full display again.

The Kings won’t be burned out or fatigued. This series starts on Wednesday and for the Kings, that’ll feel like a two-week vacation. Los Angeles not only rallied from an 0-3 deficit against the Sharks in round one, but they defeated three true powerhouses in San Jose, Anaheim and Chicago, all of whom had more points than the Rangers in a far more difficult conference. In Game 7 against the Blackhawks, in Chicago no less, the Kings had to overcome an early 2-0 deficit, they had to overcome at least three HORRIBLE calls by the refs in the second period that left them shorthanded three times, not to mention a rare 5 on 3 for 46 seconds. Trailing 4-3 entering the third, Los Angeles rallied and eventually won it on OT, 5-4. That win was truly impressive but what was even more impressive was the way they went about their business. After scoring in OT there was no mass celebration. Instead the Kings celebrated modestly like any other series, acting like it was just one more series win in their quest for the grand prize.

The Rangers are out of their league here. In a seven-game series, they can’t keep up with the talent or physical game that the Kings bring with them. After facing three offensive juggernauts with some of the best offensive talent in the game (Toews, Sharp, Kane, Saad, Getzlaf, Perry, Pavelski, Couture, Marleau et all), the Kings should have little trouble shutting down a Rangers offense that brings a fraction of the talent that the previous three teams they just knocked out bring. The Rangers are not going to get in the way of the vastly inferior Kings quest for the Cup. This is one of the biggest final mismatches in decades and even though the price is -160, we think it should be closer to -300. The Kings are not burned out and even as a -160 favorite they offer up huge value. Get in early because this number will rise

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SPORTS WAGERS

MLB

Boston Red Sox -113 over Cleveland Indians

We’re not in the habit of playing favorites but the price on this one is cheap enough for us to make an exception, as value does not always come in underdogs. The value here is in the pitching match-up, which hugely favors the Red Sox. Last year, John Lackey shed extra pounds and distractions in driven return from TJS and went on to post his strongest skills in years. Ks and groundballs were plentiful in the first half and a 69%-0% dominant start/disaster start split brought him home in the 2H. Constants were a career-best control and a reliable ERA. With a clean arm and a clear head, Lackey has been even better this year. In 72 frames, Lackey has an outstanding BB/K split of 14/68. He has an elite 18% swing and miss rate over his last four starts. In 25.2 innings on the road, Lackey has a BB/K split of 2/24 with an xERA of 2.97. Lackey has not allowed a run in 13.1 straight innings.

Justin Masterson is a different story. His groundball-inducing ways continue to be a given and sit at 59% this season. However, the warning signs regarding Masterson could cover several pages but we’ll point out the most glaring. After an inconsistent 2012 campaign, Masterson seemed to put it all together last season, posting a 3.45 ERA in 193 innings. He made a huge gain in his strikeout rate (17.6 percent to 24.3 percent) while allowing just four home runs all season. Consequently, that 3.45 ERA was accompanied by an xERA of 3.35, which ranked 25th among starters. Masterson’s control became a second half issue and then an oblique strain effectively shelved him in September and he hasn’t been the same since. In his first outing of the year on March 31 at Oakland, Masterson’s average four-seam fastball velocity was 90.1 mph and his average sinker was 88.7, which was a big drop from his final start of 2013, when he was at 94.7 and 90.8, respectively. That loss of velocity trend has continued all year. Last season, Masterson hit 94 MPH or higher an average of just under 18 times per start. Masterson's average four-seam velocity has broken 92 in a start once this season, and his sinker -- Masterson's go-to pitch-- has not averaged higher than 89.3 mph in a start this season, after sitting above 90 in 32 of 33 games in 2013. It's not just a velocity issue either. Masterson has long dealt with a platoon split, to the point of many thinking he'd ultimately be a reliever. From 2009-12, Masterson limited right-handed batters to a .611 OPS, but left-handers were at .800. In 2013 he seemed to fix this issue, limiting lefties to a .248 batting average and .698 OPS, while getting even better against righties, as well (.182/.507). But those issues with left-handed batters have cropped up again, and through his 12th start, they are hitting .319 with a .919 OPS. Masterson isn’t fooling anyone out there. Over his last four starts he’s walked 13 and struck out 10. He’s not only missing the plate, he’s afraid to come at hitters because they are raking him over the coals. Clearly, Masterson's year leading into free agency is off to a rough start and it's because of three distinct issues - an alarming drop in velocity, an inability to neutralize left-handed batters and playing in front of a poor defense as a groundball-heavy pitcher. Justin Masterson is a pitcher in peril and we’re all over it.


Over 8½ Minnesota Twins/Milwaukee Brewers

Totals can be a bit tricky at times when we’re talking about venues with retractable roofs because wind conditions, temperatures, humidity and barometric readings play a huge role in the outcome of games. That all becomes a non-factor when the roof is closed and the status for the roof today at Miller Park is unknown at the time of this writing. That said, our bet will stand for now but if the conditions become extremely favorable for the pitchers, we may buy it back. If conditions become favorable for hitter’s, we’ll be on at a great price.

Kyle Gibson has made 10 starts on the season and only three of those have been of the pure quality variety. Gibson is coming off two quality starts in his past three games but don’t be fooled by them, as they were both in extremely favorable pitching conditions at home with the winds blowing in at 15 MPH and 13 MPH respectively. In 10 career road starts, Gibson is 2-5 with a 6.34 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. In five road starts this season, Gibson is 1-3 with an ERA of 7.77 after allowing 27 hits in 22 innings (oppBA of .297) and walking 10 batters. Three of those 27 hits went yard. Gibson has just 20 starts in his brief career. He went 2-4 with a 6.53 ERA in 51 innings last year. Nov 2011 TJS cost him all of 2012 and returned in 2013 to decent 1H results in the minors that earned him a call-up to the majors, which had disastrous results. His second half shows the downside of a pitcher who doesn't miss bats and lacks pinpoint control. Gibson will now face a Brewers team that leads the majors in several offensive categories and is the hottest offense in baseball over the past 10 games with a BA of .312 and 62 runs scored.

From The Trop to Wrigley to Texas, Matt Garza has been good for double-digit wins and an ERA below 4.00 no matter where he calls home but all those trips to the DL seem to have taken a toll. Garza has just two wins and six quality starts in 11 starts. He’s allowed three runs or more in six straight and should be allow that many or more here, this game should sail over the total. Garza isn’t getting stronger either. He’s allowed three jacks over his last 13 innings, his groundball rate is in decline while his WHIP is on the rise and now sits at an unacceptable 1.32. Garza comes into this start with an ERA of 4.84 and there is nothing in his profile suggesting a turnaround anytime soon.

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LT LOCK

Cleveland Indians +100

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Hondo

Hondo, who nailed the cold triple in last year’s Belmont, started this year’s Belmont week in winning fashion Sunday when he hit the double with the Bay Area Boomers — the Giants and A’s — to slash the deficit to 860 cicottes.

Monday night: Mr. Aitch will go coastal for a ride on the long shot in L.A. — 10 units on Sale and the White Sox to hose Kershaw & Co.

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Sports Cash System

extra pick:

Boston Red Sox -116 over the Cleveland Indians (Money Line Bet) (MLB Baseball) - Game Starts at 7:05 PM EST

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Prediction Machine

ML:

Cle +105
SD -115

O/U:

TB @ Mia over 7.5

RL:

Cle -160
Sea -175

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VEGAS RUNNER

Steam Moves

954 UNDER 8.5 (-120) – BOS/CLE

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J.R Stevens/SMOOTH44

TOP PICKS
(MLB) KANSAS CITY +135
(MLB) CLEVELAND +115
(MLB) MIAMI +130
(MLB) NY-YANKEES +120
(MLB) CHI WHITE SOX +190
(MLB) PHILADELPHIA +105 (PLAY OF THE DAY)
Tonight the Mets find themselves in a very challenging spot, off B2B extra inning wins by exactly 1 run and teams in this spot typically fail miserably. Adding to their challenges is a starting pitcher, an aging one, coming off his best performance of the season and his highest pitch count–never a good combination! Qualifying pitchers are a PERFECT 0-23 if coming off a shutout win and pitch count of 120 or more.

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Sheep Moves
1963 Over 4 (-125) Nym-Phi (1st 5)
1959 Over 4 (-125) Kc-Stl (1st 5)
956 Under 7 1/2 (-120) Tb-Mia
954 Under 8 1/2 (-120) Bos-Cle
954 Indians +110
964 Phillies +100

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ANTHONY MICHAEL

Monday Night Baseball

#959 – #960 Kansas City – St. Louis – OVER 7.5 (8:05 ESPN)
St. Louis has been a good over team at home going 16-10 to the OVER and they are especially strong on the over as a favorite of -150 to -175. The Royals are a good over team against right handers. Both of these teams have been on a good over run going over in 4 of their last 6 games. Play the over here as the play of the day.