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SPORTS WAGERS
MLB
Baltimore -106 over TEXAS
Ubaldo Jimenez isn’t exactly setting the world on fire but he does have 28 K’s over his last 27 innings covering five starts. Over his last six starts, Jimenez has allowed one earned run or less four times. That includes a seven-inning, three-hit gem against the Tigers and 7.1-inning, three-hit shutout against the Twins in which he walked one and struck out 10. Jimenez’s 2-6 record is misleading and so is his 4.65 ERA, which has been hurt by an extremely unlucky 70% strand rate. Use his 3.27 xERA as a more accurate barometer of just how well he’s been pitching. Jimenez has allowed just one HR in his past seven starts and he and the Orioles offer up so much more value here than Joe Saunders does pitching for the Rangers.
Joe Saunders. That’s funny. Saunders has returned to the rotation after missing over a month with an ankle injury. His four minor league rehab starts were not promising, as he went 0-2 with a 3.80 ERA and 1.55 WHIP while walking seven batters in 21.1 innings for Round Rock. Globe Life Park is not a good fit for this stiff either. He has been terrible in eight career starts at Rangers Ballpark, going 1-7 with a 8.58 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in 43 innings. Saunders’ ludicrous streak of stats-exceeding-skills finally ended last season at six years. Overall, these are consistent skills, but also rather paltry ones in which Saunders excels at nothing. His full-season worst 5.26 ERA in 2013 was not indicative of his skills, but neither was the 3.69 of 2011. In reality, Saunders' xERA, consistently in the 4.40-4.60 range, correctly paints him for what he is: a modestly skilled innings-eater that is now pitching at one of the most unforgiving parks in the game. Fade.
Toronto +126 over DETROIT
The Tigers are just 4-10 over their last 14 games while the Blue Jays are 12-2 over that same span. Detroit has hit .256 during that stretch while the Blue Jays have hit a major-league high .301 and have also hit 26 jacks. Anibal Sanchez has the ability to dominate but at the age of 30 he’s beginning to have durability issues. Sanchez has only pitched passed the fifth inning in three of his eight starts. Sanchez does have a 2.49 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP and an oppBA of .183 but that’s not going to last because the skills don’t support it. Sanchez’s swing and miss rate is just 8%. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate is very average at 42%/22%/36% and in his last start his groundball/fly-ball split was 28%/56%. What’s so interesting is that Sanchez has not allowed a single jack this entire year but that can’t last because of the number of fly-balls he gives up. Yes, Sanchez has fine skills. However, regression analysis and that 2H xERA from last season both say not to expect another sub-3 ERA and now he’ll face a Jays’ team that is hitting everyone and everything.
Toronto Blue Jays manager John Gibbons pushed back Drew Hutchison's start two days. Gibbons said there is nothing physically wrong with Hutchison, but the team wanted to give him a couple of extra days rest because his velocity was down just a tad. It’s nothing to be concerned about at all. This was a smart move by Gibbons, who handles his pitching staff as well as any manager in baseball. Hutchison's strong minor league skills have materialized at this level. He's shown no ill effects from going under the knife, as he's punching out nearly a batter per inning while posting an impressive 11% swing and miss rate. What's more, he's bumped his fastball velocity from 91 mph in '12 to 92 mph, but can reach back to the 95-mph range if necessary. An unlucky strand % of 73% gives his 3.88 ERA even more room for improvement. This kid has the poise, the talent and the stuff to be a mainstay in the Blue Jays rotation for a long time. The Jays lead the league in fielding % and several offensive categories, making these red-hot Blue Jays too good to ignore as a pup. Invest.
Minnesota +138 over MILWAUKEE
The Brewers took the opener last night 6-2 but they were outhit 12-9 and it was a case of good luck versus bad luck, as Minnesota had numerous chances to score while Milwaukee’s contact with runners on found some holes. We mention this because the Twins have had 10 hits or more in four of their last five games and the only game that didn’t occur in over that stretch was against Masahiro Tanaka of the Yanks. Minnesota has another good chance here of doing some damage here against Yovani Gallardo. After being a model of SP consistency throughout his career, things fell apart for Gallardo in 2013. He posted his first 4.00+ ERA while his strikeout total plummeted. Through 11 starts in 2014, Gallardo has a 3.56 ERA, so it may appear like he’s finding his old groove. Don’t buy into that, as his skills say this is the same version of Gallardo we saw in 2013. Gallardo's K rate, which was once his biggest strength, continues to plummet. A fading 6% swing and miss rate doesn't give much hope for a rebound either. Gallardo’s xERA of 4.54 over his last five starts doesn't believe in an ERA rebound either. With an unsustainable 83% strand rate, Gallardo’s skill set has "4.00 ++ ERA" written all over it, making him one of the most overvalued pitchers in the game.
Samuel Deduno has filthy stuff and can absolutely dominate anyone when he’s on. The problem is inconsistency, as you never know which version will show up. However, what we do know is that Deduno has held right handed batters to a .219 BA and .580 OPS, both of which are elite levels. He also has an elite 55% groundball rate and elite 17% line-drive rate. Unlike Gallardo, Deduno has been EXTREMELY unlucky with his strand rate, which sits at 71% for the year and 65% over his last five starts. Deduno is so close to being an elite pitcher but be warned that’s always been the case with him. He can never seem to make that one small tweak to get him to that level but again, he’s capable of dominating at any time. As the chalk, Deduno doesn’t hold much value but as a pooch in this price range, he holds it all over Gallardo.
N.Y. Mets +108 over CHICAGO
Jake Arrieta has made just five starts this year and only one of them has been of the pure quality variety. Last season, Arrieta went 5-4 with a 4.58 ERA in 75 IP split between the Orioles and Cubs. Scouts have been waiting four years for this guy to break out and one has to wonder if the league swap will make it happen. Well, he has posted a better groundball% in the NL along with more K’s but he's still issuing too many walks and his dominant start/disaster start split shows he's still not a dominant starter. At this point, he's at risk of becoming long relief fodder or an AAAA player. Arietta still has a WHIP of 1.50, which is right in line with his career WHIP of 1.43 in 435 major-league innings. He’s walked 193 batters in his career, which is the real issue here because the early reports are strong winds blowing out at Wrigley tonight and should that come to pass, you don’t want to be spotting juice with a pitcher that is guaranteed to issue some free passes. Arrieta is too big a risk for our liking, especially when you consider that he pitches for a team that as the second lowest batting average (.231) in the majors.
The Mets just took four of five in Philadelphia and would’ve swept had it not been for a blown save in the ninth inning in the second game. The Mets have now won six of seven. Zack Wheeler has not his stride yet but he’s getting closer. An up-and-down first month in the majors last year was followed by eight dominant starts in a 10-start span. We’re seeing more of that this year, as Wheeler is becoming dominant again. He’s coming off a 6.1 inning, four hit, one-run performance in Philly in which he walked none and struck out nine. Over his last five starts, covering 29 frames, Wheeler has struck out 30 batters with an elite swing and miss rate of 12%. A slow start plus a high hit percentage of 36% has Wheeler’s ERA inflated at 4.31. His 94-mph four-seam fastball velocity in May was the sixth-highest among qualified NL SP. This future #1 starter could make strides quickly now, as he’s showing all the signs of doing so and there is no way he deserves to be a pooch against Arrieta and the Cubbies. Wrong side favored.
MLB
Baltimore -106 over TEXAS
Ubaldo Jimenez isn’t exactly setting the world on fire but he does have 28 K’s over his last 27 innings covering five starts. Over his last six starts, Jimenez has allowed one earned run or less four times. That includes a seven-inning, three-hit gem against the Tigers and 7.1-inning, three-hit shutout against the Twins in which he walked one and struck out 10. Jimenez’s 2-6 record is misleading and so is his 4.65 ERA, which has been hurt by an extremely unlucky 70% strand rate. Use his 3.27 xERA as a more accurate barometer of just how well he’s been pitching. Jimenez has allowed just one HR in his past seven starts and he and the Orioles offer up so much more value here than Joe Saunders does pitching for the Rangers.
Joe Saunders. That’s funny. Saunders has returned to the rotation after missing over a month with an ankle injury. His four minor league rehab starts were not promising, as he went 0-2 with a 3.80 ERA and 1.55 WHIP while walking seven batters in 21.1 innings for Round Rock. Globe Life Park is not a good fit for this stiff either. He has been terrible in eight career starts at Rangers Ballpark, going 1-7 with a 8.58 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in 43 innings. Saunders’ ludicrous streak of stats-exceeding-skills finally ended last season at six years. Overall, these are consistent skills, but also rather paltry ones in which Saunders excels at nothing. His full-season worst 5.26 ERA in 2013 was not indicative of his skills, but neither was the 3.69 of 2011. In reality, Saunders' xERA, consistently in the 4.40-4.60 range, correctly paints him for what he is: a modestly skilled innings-eater that is now pitching at one of the most unforgiving parks in the game. Fade.
Toronto +126 over DETROIT
The Tigers are just 4-10 over their last 14 games while the Blue Jays are 12-2 over that same span. Detroit has hit .256 during that stretch while the Blue Jays have hit a major-league high .301 and have also hit 26 jacks. Anibal Sanchez has the ability to dominate but at the age of 30 he’s beginning to have durability issues. Sanchez has only pitched passed the fifth inning in three of his eight starts. Sanchez does have a 2.49 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP and an oppBA of .183 but that’s not going to last because the skills don’t support it. Sanchez’s swing and miss rate is just 8%. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate is very average at 42%/22%/36% and in his last start his groundball/fly-ball split was 28%/56%. What’s so interesting is that Sanchez has not allowed a single jack this entire year but that can’t last because of the number of fly-balls he gives up. Yes, Sanchez has fine skills. However, regression analysis and that 2H xERA from last season both say not to expect another sub-3 ERA and now he’ll face a Jays’ team that is hitting everyone and everything.
Toronto Blue Jays manager John Gibbons pushed back Drew Hutchison's start two days. Gibbons said there is nothing physically wrong with Hutchison, but the team wanted to give him a couple of extra days rest because his velocity was down just a tad. It’s nothing to be concerned about at all. This was a smart move by Gibbons, who handles his pitching staff as well as any manager in baseball. Hutchison's strong minor league skills have materialized at this level. He's shown no ill effects from going under the knife, as he's punching out nearly a batter per inning while posting an impressive 11% swing and miss rate. What's more, he's bumped his fastball velocity from 91 mph in '12 to 92 mph, but can reach back to the 95-mph range if necessary. An unlucky strand % of 73% gives his 3.88 ERA even more room for improvement. This kid has the poise, the talent and the stuff to be a mainstay in the Blue Jays rotation for a long time. The Jays lead the league in fielding % and several offensive categories, making these red-hot Blue Jays too good to ignore as a pup. Invest.
Minnesota +138 over MILWAUKEE
The Brewers took the opener last night 6-2 but they were outhit 12-9 and it was a case of good luck versus bad luck, as Minnesota had numerous chances to score while Milwaukee’s contact with runners on found some holes. We mention this because the Twins have had 10 hits or more in four of their last five games and the only game that didn’t occur in over that stretch was against Masahiro Tanaka of the Yanks. Minnesota has another good chance here of doing some damage here against Yovani Gallardo. After being a model of SP consistency throughout his career, things fell apart for Gallardo in 2013. He posted his first 4.00+ ERA while his strikeout total plummeted. Through 11 starts in 2014, Gallardo has a 3.56 ERA, so it may appear like he’s finding his old groove. Don’t buy into that, as his skills say this is the same version of Gallardo we saw in 2013. Gallardo's K rate, which was once his biggest strength, continues to plummet. A fading 6% swing and miss rate doesn't give much hope for a rebound either. Gallardo’s xERA of 4.54 over his last five starts doesn't believe in an ERA rebound either. With an unsustainable 83% strand rate, Gallardo’s skill set has "4.00 ++ ERA" written all over it, making him one of the most overvalued pitchers in the game.
Samuel Deduno has filthy stuff and can absolutely dominate anyone when he’s on. The problem is inconsistency, as you never know which version will show up. However, what we do know is that Deduno has held right handed batters to a .219 BA and .580 OPS, both of which are elite levels. He also has an elite 55% groundball rate and elite 17% line-drive rate. Unlike Gallardo, Deduno has been EXTREMELY unlucky with his strand rate, which sits at 71% for the year and 65% over his last five starts. Deduno is so close to being an elite pitcher but be warned that’s always been the case with him. He can never seem to make that one small tweak to get him to that level but again, he’s capable of dominating at any time. As the chalk, Deduno doesn’t hold much value but as a pooch in this price range, he holds it all over Gallardo.
N.Y. Mets +108 over CHICAGO
Jake Arrieta has made just five starts this year and only one of them has been of the pure quality variety. Last season, Arrieta went 5-4 with a 4.58 ERA in 75 IP split between the Orioles and Cubs. Scouts have been waiting four years for this guy to break out and one has to wonder if the league swap will make it happen. Well, he has posted a better groundball% in the NL along with more K’s but he's still issuing too many walks and his dominant start/disaster start split shows he's still not a dominant starter. At this point, he's at risk of becoming long relief fodder or an AAAA player. Arietta still has a WHIP of 1.50, which is right in line with his career WHIP of 1.43 in 435 major-league innings. He’s walked 193 batters in his career, which is the real issue here because the early reports are strong winds blowing out at Wrigley tonight and should that come to pass, you don’t want to be spotting juice with a pitcher that is guaranteed to issue some free passes. Arrieta is too big a risk for our liking, especially when you consider that he pitches for a team that as the second lowest batting average (.231) in the majors.
The Mets just took four of five in Philadelphia and would’ve swept had it not been for a blown save in the ninth inning in the second game. The Mets have now won six of seven. Zack Wheeler has not his stride yet but he’s getting closer. An up-and-down first month in the majors last year was followed by eight dominant starts in a 10-start span. We’re seeing more of that this year, as Wheeler is becoming dominant again. He’s coming off a 6.1 inning, four hit, one-run performance in Philly in which he walked none and struck out nine. Over his last five starts, covering 29 frames, Wheeler has struck out 30 batters with an elite swing and miss rate of 12%. A slow start plus a high hit percentage of 36% has Wheeler’s ERA inflated at 4.31. His 94-mph four-seam fastball velocity in May was the sixth-highest among qualified NL SP. This future #1 starter could make strides quickly now, as he’s showing all the signs of doing so and there is no way he deserves to be a pooch against Arrieta and the Cubbies. Wrong side favored.
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