6-4-14

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StatFox Super Situations

MLB | ST LOUIS at KANSAS CITY
Play On - All teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (ST LOUIS) ice cold hitting team - batting .200 or worse over their last 5 games against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up <=1 earned runs in his last 2 outings
57-23 since 1997. ( 71.3% | 30.1 units )
5-4 this year. ( 55.6% | 0.3 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | BOSTON at CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 26-7 (+18.4 Units) against the money line in Home games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was: CLEVELAND (4.9) , OPPONENT (3.2)

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Arthur Ralph Sports

Free Play WED:

Braves early gm -140

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Wed.

Cards -145

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SPORTS WAGERS

NHL

Playoff Prop Bet

LOS ANGELES -1½ games +146 over N.Y. Rangers

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.92)

The more we look at this series the more we like the Kings. The more we hear the “experts” on TV trying to convince us the Rangers have a legit shot, the more we want to re-up our wager. Their job is to “sell” the games in an attempt to create interest and get as many people viewing as possible. They are trying to sell us on the fatigue factor regarding the Kings and they are trying to sell us on Henrik Lundqvist’s ability to steal a series but we’re not buying any of it and frankly, neither are they.

The fatigue factor is a joke and a complete non-issue, as L.A. will have two full days of rest before Wednesday’s opener and two more full days of rest before Game 2 on Saturday. The Kings will also be at home for the first two days so they will be fresher for this series than any of the previous three and then some. Trying to sell us on the fatigue factor is ridiculous beyond words but again, they have to sell something.

Lundqvist is not capable of stealing a series any more than Jonathan Quick is. In fact, if we had a choice between goaltenders, we would take Quick without hesitation because it was Quick who defeated some of the most lethal goal scorers and point producers in the first three rounds that this league has ever seen. Yeah, Lundqvist shut down the Penguins but everyone knows that Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin were both hurt and way off their games in that series, yet Pitt still held a 3-1 games advantage and if that pair was playing up to par, the Rangers may have been eliminated in five games in round 2. We’re not suggesting Lundqvist isn’t good but he’s prone to allowing soft goals because of the style (deep in his crease) that he plays. Los Angeles has a room full of players that have found every weakness of every goaltender that they have faced in the playoffs and they did the exact same thing two years ago when they blew by every team in every round when they won the Cup. Lundqvist is not going to steal the series. For this wager to lose, the Rangers either have to win three games and take it to a seventh game or they are going to have to win it outright. Frankly, we don’t see them coming close to accomplishing either one. Aside from goaltending, which is safe to call equal, the Rangers are vastly inferior in every department no matter what metric you’re using and that also includes the strength of the opposition to get here.


Series wager

LOS ANGELES -160 over N.Y. Rangers

(Risking 6.4 units - To Win: 4.00)

You may read about or be influenced by the media (and experts) suggesting that the Kings may suffer a letdown or be burnt out after their difficult road to the final. We say hogwash and we say that the Rangers may not win a game. The Rangers had difficulty getting here against three very average teams in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Montreal without the services of Carey Price. Some will argue that Dustin Tokarski played well and while that is true, it doesn’t reflect the mindset of the rest of the team, whose confidence had to be shaken knowing they would be without their best player. The Rangers road to the Cup might just be this league’s easiest road in a very long time and New York was in no way dominating over any of the teams they faced. There’s a reason the West beat up on the East all year during the regular season and it’s about to be on full display again.

The Kings won’t be burned out or fatigued. This series starts on Wednesday and for the Kings, that’ll feel like a two-week vacation. Los Angeles not only rallied from an 0-3 deficit against the Sharks in round one, but they defeated three true powerhouses in San Jose, Anaheim and Chicago, all of whom had more points than the Rangers in a far more difficult conference. In Game 7 against the Blackhawks, in Chicago no less, the Kings had to overcome an early 2-0 deficit, they had to overcome at least three HORRIBLE calls by the refs in the second period that left them shorthanded three times, not to mention a rare 5 on 3 for 46 seconds. Trailing 4-3 entering the third, Los Angeles rallied and eventually won it on OT, 5-4. That win was truly impressive but what was even more impressive was the way they went about their business. After scoring in OT there was no mass celebration. Instead the Kings celebrated modestly like any other series, acting like it was just one more series win in their quest for the grand prize.

The Rangers are out of their league here. In a seven-game series, they can’t keep up with the talent or physical game that the Kings bring with them. After facing three offensive juggernauts with some of the best offensive talent in the game (Toews, Sharp, Kane, Saad, Getzlaf, Perry, Pavelski, Couture, Marleau et all), the Kings should have little trouble shutting down a Rangers offense that brings a fraction of the talent that the previous three teams they just knocked out bring. The Rangers are not going to get in the way of the vastly inferior Kings quest for the Cup. This is one of the biggest final mismatches in decades and even though the price is -160, we think it should be closer to -300. The Kings are not burned out and even as a -160 favorite they offer up huge value. Get in early because this number will rise.

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River City Sharps

3 Units Detroit Tigers -125

The Tigers are scuffling a bit lately, losers of 11 of their last 15 games, including last night's 5-3 loss to these Toronto Blue Jays. Tonight, the Tigers are going to try and right this ship as they send our Rick Porcello (8-2, 3.68 ERA) to oppose Blue Jays knuckleballer R.A. Dickey (5-4, 4.30) who was knocked around pretty good in his last start against the Royals. Porcello is actually tied for second in MLB with his eight wins and trying to bounce back from a shaky start against the A's, which resulted in a 5-4 Tigers win. We need Porcello to go deep tonight because new Tigers closer Joe Nathan has been uncharacteristically bad this season, including another blown save on Tuesday night. A couple of trends here that we really are going to key on for this matchup...The Tigers are 6-1 in Porcello's last seven starts as a home favorite and while Dickey has been really tough in Toronto, he hasn't enjoyed the same results on the road. Dickey is 0-3 with a 6.23 ERA in four road starts this season. We are going to swallow the juice here and lay it with the home favorite needing a win.

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Paul Leiner

100* Over 8.5 Angels/Astros

50* Cleveland Indians -145

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Tiger

Seattle vs Atl Under 7 -118

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Accuscore

MLB - 70+% Trends

OU-Betting Line of 9 TO 9.5 STREAK 8-2, 80%
OAK 961 vs NYY 962 -- Under 9
TOR 963 vs DET 964 -- Under 9
BAL 967 vs TEX 968 -- Under 9

AL WEST DIV GAME ML STREAK 5-1, 83.3%
LAA 969 vs HOU 970 -- Over 50% on Los Angeles Angels -129

SV-Home Line is +130 or More STREAK 2-0, 100%
STL 975 vs KC 976 -- Value on Kansas City Royals +134

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Soccer Play
vip-picks

Lahti - TPS
Tip: Lahti -1

Odds: 1,85

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SPORTS WAGERS

MLB

Baltimore @ TEXAS

Baltimore -108 over TEXAS

(Risking 2.16 units - To Win: 2.00)

The Orioles have scored 17 runs over their past two games and last night’s 8-3 win was actually a flattering score to the Rangers. Baltimore out-hit Texas 17-7 and left 11 runners stranded otherwise the score would’ve been closer to 15-3. Now the O’s will face one of the worst pitchers in the game with the most misleading ERA in the game. Nick Martinez has a 2.75 ERA after 10 appearances with five of those coming as a starter. Pay no attention to that. Martinez has a pathetic BB/K split of 17/20 in 39 innings. He has an awful groundball/fly-ball split of 33%/45%. Martinez was forced into action because of all the injuries to the Rangers rotation but take note that he made the jump from Double AA to the majors and his actual ERA is in for a big correction. Martinez comes into this start with the worst xERA (6.88) of any pitcher in MLB that has made five starts or more. His swing and miss rate is a brutal 5%. He’s often behind in the count and it’s only a matter of time before he gets battered. Nick Martinez may not make it out of the third inning here.

We could tell you all about Bud Norris but it’s not relevant because this choice has absolutely nothing to do with him. We get outstanding value fading a struggling Rangers team with Nick Martinez on the hill and we’ll keep fading Martinez when the price allows us to, as it does here.


Seattle @ ATLANTA

Seattle +130 over ATLANTA

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.60)

12:10 PM EST. The Mariners have won four in a row while scoring 24 runs over that span. The M’s just took two of three from the Tigers and they took the opener of this series last night, 7-5. Hisashi Iwakuma started the year a month after everyone else so he was a step behind. However, he’s pitched 6+ innings in each of his six starts and he also threw back-to-back, eight-inning, four hit shutout gems in his second and third starts of the year. Iwakuma’s groundball arm built on last year's 2H gains to finish in AL's Top Three in ERA/WHIP. His first half featured airtight control and superb command that he couldn't quite sustain. Even so, take that 2H and throw in equal success vL/vR and home/road. At 33, tough to dub him an ace and expect him to match last year’s numbers but we’re not paying an ace price to back him here. This is a pitcher with a 55% groundball rate and a BB/K split of 4/29 in 44 innings. His great command and groundball tilt makes him instantly playable as a pooch against the weak hitting Braves.

Mike Minor also started a month late but the difference is that Minor is a fly-ball pitcher with a career groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 36%/22%/42%. This year in 37 innings, his profile is almost identical to his career profile. Furthermore, at home, Minor is 1-3 with an ERA of 5.01 Minor is a very decent pitcher that 29 other teams would love to have but in this spot, as a significant price over Iwakuma and the M’s, we’re going to play the value, as Seattle sports the better offense and Atlanta is 0-5 this season against the AL. Note the early start here.


Pittsburgh @ SAN DIEGO

Pittsburgh +100 over SAN DIEGO

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)

6:40 PM EST. Ian Kennedy is having a really good year with 11 pure quality starts in 12 tries. He also has an outstanding BB/K split of 19/81 in 74 innings. Dude is pitching better than he ever has with the skills to support it. However, at home, Kennedy is 1-5 with a 4.01 ERA and current Pirates are hitting a combined .311 off him. It would come as no surprise if Kennedy threw a strong game here but the value in this game is on the Pirates and Francisco Liriano.

The Pirates are 2-0 in this series while outscoring the Padres 14-4. The Pirates are quietly heating up with five wins in six games and that includes taking three of four against the Dodgers in Los Angeles prior to this series. In their last six games in two pitcher’s parks (L.A. and S.D.), Pittsburgh has scored 29 times. Francisco Liriano is 1-5 with an ERA of 4.62 and he’s precisely the reason you don’t buy or sell surface stats. This is a guy that went 16-8 with a 3.02 ERA in 161 innings last year. Liriano’s skills this year are actually better than last years’. He’s rendered LH batters helpless and his swing and miss rate is tops in the majors at 17%. Liriano’s groundball rate is also on the rise and now sits at 53% on the year. However, over his last five starts, Liriano’s groundball rate is even higher at 58%. Francisco Liriano has been extremely unlucky with a high hit rate and low strand rate but he possesses some of the best, if not the best skills in the game. Regression is absolutely coming in his actual ERA and the fact that he’s a pooch against San Diego, a team with the lowest home on base percentage in the majors is bordering on ludicrous. Invest.



Toronto @ DETROIT

Toronto +114 over DETROIT

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.28)

Anibal Sanchez was virtually unhittable last night but as soon as the Jays saw somebody else they went to work. Toronto scored five in in the ninth for its third straight win and its 13th win in the past 15 games. The Jays are once again playing too well to ignore as a pooch, especially when the pitcher isn’t named Verlander, Scherzer or Sanchez. Rick Porcello has a low strikeout rate with 42 K’s in 64 innings. His xERA over his past five starts covering 32 innings is 4.45. Current Jays are hitting a robust .447 off Porcello with 42 hits in 97 combined AB’s. Of those 94 AB’s in his career against current Jays, Porcello has struck out five. In four starts at Comerica this year, Porcello is 3-1 with a 3.86 ERA but he has a BAA of .286 and an xERA of 4.97.

Knuckleballers are unpredictable and that makes R.A. Dickey unpredictable. Dickey is just as prone to giving up five runs in five innings as he is of pitching a seven-inning gem. In terms of pitching matchups, if Dickey’s knuckler is dancing and he’s throwing strikes, give a big edge to him over Porcello. If he gets into trouble and gets knocked out early, so be it. Nobody can predict what Dickey will bring tonight but what we do know is that the Tigers have just four wins in their past 15 games and with the Jays history against Porcello, their potent offense, and their current form, it makes them the much better option taking back a tag than the Tigers spotting one.

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EZWINNERS

2* Braves -144
2* Mets -105
2* Rangers -105
2* D-Backs +115
2* White Sox +162

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Hondo

Marlins
Rockies
Pirates

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The factsman

whip it out wednesday baseball winner!

[977] milwaukee brewers -125
( m estrada -r / r nolasco -r )

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EZWINNERS

2 STAR SELECTION

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Atlanta Braves

(972) Atlanta Braves -$144

(Risking $288 to win $200) (Action)


2 STAR SELECTION

Game: New York Mets @ Chicago Cubs

(957) New York Mets -$105

(Risking $210 to win $200) (Action)


2 STAR SELECTION

Game: Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers

(968) Texas Rangers -$105

(Risking $210 to win $200) (Action)


2 STAR SELECTION

Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies

(959) Arizona Diamondbacks +$115

(Risking $200 to win $230) (Action)


2 STAR SELECTION

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Dodgers

(979) Chicago White Sox +$162

(Risking $200 to win $324) (Action)

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GAMBLING GOD

NHL

Rangers vs Kings

Pick: Rangers ML

Risk:$100 to win $135