6-7-14

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HARRY BONDI

MLB

Free Play PITTSBURGH (-115) over Milwaukee 4:05 p.m. ET

Brewer’s starter Matt Garza has been one of the most overrated starters in baseball the last few years and his 6.59 road ERA is a whopping 3.5 runs higher than when he pitches at home this season. Meanwhile, it’s just the opposite for Pirates starter Edinson Volquez, who is 4-2 at home with a 3.82 ERA this season, compared to a 1-4 record and 5.07 ERA on the highway. The Pittsburgh bullpen has also pitched very well at home this year with a collective 2.55 ERA, so look for a Pirates win as runs will be hard to come by for the Brew Crew today

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Bones Best Bet
Let's try this one again tonight. Took the push in game 1 but pulling the trigger again here for game 2. Either one of these goalies and more than capable of stealing the show and posting a shutout any given night. We don't quite need a shutout to cash this under but won't be surprised if we see one tonight.

RANGERS @ KINGS U5 -120 *2*

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SPORTSWAGERS

MLB

Houston @ MINNESOTA

MINNESOTA -1 +120 over Houston

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)

2:10 PM EST. Scott Feldman doesn’t walk a lot of batters but that’s like saying Marcel Dionne can still skate. In 53 innings this season, Feldman has struck out a measly 25 batters. His swing and miss rate is a very low 6% and it’s only a matter of time before he finds himself on another team, the waiver wire or in the bullpen. Over his last four starts covering 20.1 innings, Feldman has surrendered 38 hits and 18 runs. He has posted a WHIP of 1.83 to go along with an ERA of 6.84 over the past month. Furthermore in two day games this year, Feldman is 0-2 with an ERA of 7.30 and an oppBA of .304. Feldman’s skills are all trending the wrong way and his margin for error keeps getting thinner.

Kyle Gibson has suddenly appeared on our radar because his under the hood stats have improved in a big way. Here’s a guy that went 2-4 with a 6.53 ERA in 51 innings last year and has a 4.35 ERA this year after 11 starts. Called up on June 24th of last season, this former top prospect has not come close to expectations but he’s a student of the game that has started to figure it out. Gibson is tall at 6’6” and uses his height and arm slot effectively to pitch downhill and keeps his fastball low in the zone. Gibson uses both a two-seam and four-seam fastball that generally works in the 89-94 mph range. He induces tons of groundballs and can effectively pitch to contact and get hitters out early. He also has the ability to wipe out hitters with an above average slider and excellent change-up that features high-quality sink. At his best, Gibson has three above average offerings that he throws for strikes. His groundball rate on the year is 53% but over his past five starts that has risen to 59%. Over his last three starts, Gibson has not issued a single walk. He only has 30 K’s in 62 innings but that’s misleading because his 11% swing and miss rate screams that his K rate is much lower than it should be. Kyle Gibson has the best raw stuff of any starter on the Twins and it’s not close. He’s a pitcher whose stock may soar and now is the time to buy low. There are seeds of something great here.


Philadelphia @ CINCINNATI

Philadelphia +126 over CINCINNATI

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.52)

The Phillies snapped a six-game losing streak with an 8-0 victory in the opener last night and that takes a big load off their shoulders. Remarkably, Philadelphia has now defeated the Reds in three straight this year while outscoring them 28-4 over that span. Roberto Hernandez doesn’t have great stats but what he does have is a decent strikeout rate (47 K’s in 58 innings) combined with a high groundball rate of 52%. In fact, Hernandez is posting his best strikeout totals since his Fausto days. He’ll now face a Reds’ team that his batting .222 over their last 10 games and that has scored three runs at home over their last three games.

Alfredo Simon has been one of the bigger surprises early on in 2014. After going almost three years without a MLB start, the 33-year-old has a 7-3 record, a 3.03 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through nine starts. However, Simon’s beneath the surface stats tell a different story. Simon has been helped by plenty of good luck with a low 24% hit rate and a unsustainable 80% strand rate. His xERA points to some serious regression. Simon’s 6% swing and miss rate and his groundball/fly-ball profile over his past five starts of 42%/37% suggest he’s walking a very fine line. Simon's age and skill profile cast doubt he can keep up the hot start for much longer. ERA should correct once the luck factors straighten out and there isn't much room for growth this late in his career. Simon's high wire act is one to fade and we’re on it.


St. Louis @ TORONTO

TORONTO -1½ +133 over St. Louis

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.66)

1:05 PM EST. Perhaps we missed an opportunity last night by not spotting the runs with the Blue Jays but we’re not going to miss it here. The Blue Jays’ 3-1 victory last night was a flattering score to the Cardinals, as Toronto had men on base every inning and they were a hit or two away from winning by five or six runs. The Jays also hit into a triple play on a line-drive with the bases jammed. The Blue Jays have now won five in a row and 20 of their past 24 games while the Cardinals have two victories over their last 10 games, one against Jason Vargas and the other against Yusmeiro Petit of the Giants. Over that 10-game stretch, St. Louis is batting .223 and has scored 30 runs and now they’ll have to deal with the crafty Mark Buehrle.

This wager is not based on Buehrle however. This one is based on the play of the scoring Blue Jays and their hot hitting lineup. Cardinals pitcher, Shelby Miller could not have picked a worse time to face the Blue Jays. Miller's poor strikeout and walk rates have caught up with him in his two most recent outings when the Cincinnati Reds and New York Yankees tagged him for 11 earned runs in 10 innings. His luck with stranding runners in scoring position also ran out. As of now, Miller has the highest walk rate (12 percent) among starting pitchers and his strikeout-walk ratio (1.44) is the third worst. He's also allowing 1.31 home runs per nine innings and the Jays lead the majors with 89 jacks. Left-handed hitters have been doing plenty of damage against Miller as well, because he doesn't have an effective off-speed pitch to keep them from sitting on his fastball. Shelby Miller isn’t fooling anyone these days and his awful profile suggests a very early exit against this patient and potent lineup.

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Sports Cash System

extra pick:

New York Mets / San Francisco Giants OVER 6½ (Total Runs Scored) (MLB Baseball) - Game Starts at 10:05 PM EST

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Allen Eastman mlb 6/7
4* W Sox-120
2* Dodgers -140

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Jason sharpe mlb 6/7

3*-white sox-120

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Doc Sports Mlb 6/7
5* Indians-105

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BONES BEST BET (MLB)

BLUE JAYS -1 -113 *5* BEST BET

Buerhle has been nothing short of dominate this season – and the Jays find ways to win almost every game of late. The Jays have now won 6 straight and 15 of 17 overall. Shelby Miller for the Cardinals has been getting lit up of late with an ERA of 7.94 over his past 3 starts. That is a recipe for disaster against this Jays line up, especially as a right hander. Over their past 5 games Toronto is scoring 5.4 runs per game and allowing just 1.8 – everything is working for them.

DODGERS ML -135 *2*
DODGERS RL (-1.5) +125 *1*

The Rockies have dropped 8 straight all but 1 coming by 2+ runs (average loss of 3.625 per game on this losing streak). The Rockies are just what the doctor ordered for a Dodgers team with some mild struggles. Greinke’s stuff has been great this season, while Chacin owns a 5.51 ERA on the year. Playing against this ice cold Rockies team in a big way.

BREWERS @ PIRATES – OVER 7.5 -105 *3*

The Brewers have went over the total in 10 of their last 11 games. They have scored at least 4 runs in 10 of 11 and given up at least 5 runs in 8 of 11. Garza has a 1.57 WHIP on the road and an ERA over 6.50. The Pirates should have no problem scoring. We are surprised this total isn’t at least 8.

GIANTS ML -149 *3*

A little juicer than we’re used to playing but this series has sweep written all over it and we plan on taking advantage of it. The Giants are the best team in baseball while the Mets have now dropped 4 straight after last night’s 4-2 loss. Give us the much better team with the very impressive Tim Hudson (6-2, 1.75 ERA) on the hill tonight.

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Saturday's MLB Betting Cheat Sheet

June Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays remain the hottest team in baseball. They have won six in a row and are 5-0 in June. Mark Buehrle, baseball's best money pitcher at $1071 units, gets the start for the Blue Jays (-150, 9.5) against St. Louis. Buehrle is coming off a 4-0 shutout of the Kansas City Royals, scattering six hits over 8.0 innings.

Bay Area Bank

Both the San Francisco Giants and the Oakland A's have been beating up on their respective divisions and cashing for bettors. The Giants have won eight of 10 and are the best money team in baseball by a wide margin at $1937, while the A's have won seven of 10 and are the fourth best money team at $870. The Giants (-148) host the Mets and the A's (-145) visit the Orioles.

Rays Rebound

The Tampa Bay Rays put an end to their 10 game losing streak with a 4-0 win over the Seattle Mariners Friday night and they are favored to make it into a mini two-game winning streak Saturday. The Rays are -151 favorites and will send Alex Cobb to the mound, who is winless in his three starts since returning from the DL.

Pitching Notes

Kansas City left-hander Danny Duffy has been on his game so far this season. Despite holding a 3-5 record for the Royals, Duffy has only allowed more than two hits in two of his six starts so far this season. During those six starts the Royals are 2-4 SU and 2-3-1 O/U.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are a stellar 24-9 in Zach Greinke's last 33 starts when they are listed as the favorites. The Dodgers are currently -134 favorites against Colorado Rockies today.

Hitting Notes

The Minnesota Twins are more than happy to have Josh Willingham back in their batting order. Willingham has hits in eight consecutive games including four home runs and 11 RBI. The Twins have not been able to translate this extra pop to wins going just 3-5 SU and 5-4 O/U.

The entire St. Louis Cardinals have been disappearing as of late, but nobody more than Yadier Molina. In Molina's last 10 he has managed to register a hit three times and only once has he had more than one in a game. Needless to say, Molina has provided no help on the scoreboard failing to notch a single run and no RBI.

Totals Streak

Chicago Cubs (6-1 O/U): During that past seven games, the Cubs have found their bats and have been able to muster some offense tallying 32 runs. That span also includes plating at least five runs in five of the outings. The Cubs have also found some solid pitching only allowing opposing offenses to score more than four runs just twice.

Injury Notes

Johan Santana torn his achillies pitching in an extended spring training outing Friday, putting a halt to his comeback attempt with the Baltimore Orioles. The two-time Cy Young Award winner was struck by a line drive then stumbled trying to get the ball. An MRI revealed the tear.

The San Diego Padres have paced second baseman Jedd Gyorko on the 15-day disabled list with plantar fasciitis in his left foot. Gyorko signed a $35 million contract extension in April, but has been struggling this season hitting just .162.

Weather Watch

There is a 73 percent chance of rain and expected thunderstorms at Target Field in Minnesota today when the Houston Astros visit the Twins (-119, 8.5). There will also be a seven mile per hour wind blowing across the field from third to first.

Umpire of the Day

Mark Wegner will be calling balls and strikes today when the Arizona Diamondbacks (-103, 8) host the Atlanta braves and that has meant good thing for teh D-Backs. Arizona is 9-2 in their last 11 games where Wegner was behind home plate.

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Strike Point Sports Mlb
2* Indians -105

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Kevin
MLBPredictions

Kevin's Pick(s):

A couple free picks for you below. Don't forget to let me know if you want to sign up for a membership and receive all of our picks daily. I've got two more plays going today.

2 UNIT = St Louis Cardinals @ Toronto Blue Jays - BLUE JAYS -1 (-109)
Listed Pitchers: Miller vs Buehrle
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.84 units)

I'm coming right back on the Blue Jays this afternoon, this time taking them -1. This means that if they win by 1 it's a cancelled bet, if they win by 2 or more we cash our bet, and if they lose we lose our bet. Most sportsbooks offer -1 lines, but if not you can split your bet between -1.5 run line and money line. Toronto won 3-1 last night despite going 1 for 12 with RISP. Although they only scored 3 runs, they had 11 hits and just missed a few balls that could have blown last night's game open. Shelby Miller will pitch for St Louis and he is 6-5 on the season with a 4.06 ERA, .254 OBA and 1.43 WHIP. Over his last three games he is 0-3 with a 7.94 ERA. Mark Buehrle is on the mound for Toronto and he is 10-1 with a 2.10 ERA, .253 OBA and 1.19 WHIP. In 4 day games he is 4-0 with a 0.93 ERA this season. The Cardinals are 1-5 in their last 6 overall and 4-15 in their last 19 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Blue Jays are 25-7 in their last 32 overall, 10-2 in their last 12 home games, and 19-7 in Buehrle's last 26 starts overall.

Kyle's Pick(s)

2 UNIT = Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates - OVER 7.5 RUNS (-110)
Listed Pitchers: Garza vs. Volquez
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.82 units)

Giving Darvish a 4 run cushion is usually money in the bag, but the Rangers had to fight to earn their win after that lead evaporated in just two innings. They went on to win 6-4 so all is well and the bet got cashed.

Quick writeup here for me as I need to head out shortly early Saturday morning. I was expecting a total of 8 in this spot between the Brewers and Pirates, so 7.5 looks good to me. Matt Garza comes into tonight's game struggling mightily on the road this season. His ERA stands at 6.59 in that capacity, and has yet to put together a really good start away. The least amount of runs he's allowed on the road in 2014 has been 3. In addition, Garza holds a 1.57 WHIP and .344 OBP. Conversely, Edinson Volquez has been OK this season, but against Garza I don't think the number should be at 7.5. Volquez will come into it with a 4.25 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Not awful, but not great either. The last time Volquez had an ERA below 4 was in 2008. Last season in 27 starts with the Padres he faired poorly, a 6.01 ERA. Note that the Brewers have gone OVER the number in four straight games. They are also 12-2-2 to the OVER in their last sixteen games. Likewise, the Pirates have gone 9-4-3 to the OVER in their last sixteen home games. At 7.5 I think we should be able to get enough runs to hit a winner on Saturday.

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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Time: Saturday 06/07 10:10 PM Eastern
Pick: Arizona -102 (moneyline) at BetOnline

The Arizona Diamondbacks opened the season at 5-18, and while their overall record is poor, they have picked up the pieces from the brutal start to be a respectful 21-19 in their last 40 games, so they certainly are an under the radar team showing value here. The Braves have been quite the opposite since opening the season at 19-7. They have since been an ugly 15-21 over their last 36 games. So for the last six weeks, it is the Diamondbacks that have been the better team. The Braves have struggled on the road vs. poor teams as they are an unfocused 1-7 in their last eight vs. a team below .500. Ervin Santana has struggled over his last four starts where opponents have a .337 batting average against him. Make the play on Arizona.

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Paul Leiner

100* Over 8 Atlanta Braves/Arizona Diamondbacks

50* Chicago Cubs -145

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Bruce Marshall

Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates

Pick: Milwaukee Brewers -105

The Brewers were humbled by a 15-5 count last night, but expect a bounce-back effort tonight at PNC Park. Encouragement comes in the form of Matt Garza, as Milwaukee has won his last two starts, and Garza is off one of his best efforts as he held a foe (Twins) off of the scoreboard for the first time this season. Bucs starter Edinson Volquez has pitched better lately, but his ERA is still a subpar 4.25.

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Anthony Michael

SATURDAY TV BASEBALL WINNER FROM ANTHONY!!!

Detroit Tigers -135

I know the Tigers have been struggling lately but this is a perfect spot for them to get a win. A prime time TV game with their star pitcher on the mound against a big name team. Detroit is 10-6 against left handers and 6-3 on Saturday. Boston is 0-3 as an underdog between +125 and +150 and they are 14-25 against right handers.