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SPORTSWAGERS
MLB
Miami @ CHICAGO
Miami -101 over CHICAGO
(Risking 2.02 units - To Win: 2.00)
Henderson Alvarez is not as good as his 2.62 ERA suggests but that’s something we’ll elaborate on at a later date. Frankly, we couldn’t care less about who was starting for the Fish because this one is all about fading the opposition’s starter.
The Cubbies have won the first three games of this series but they had an edge facing Randy Wolf and Brian Flynn in two of the three games. In the other game, Cubs ace Jason Hammel defeated Nathan Eovaldi 5-3 but things take a turn for the worse here for the Cubbies. Jake Arietta is 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA after six starts. When talking about misleading surface stats, Jake Arrieta leads the universe in that department. Arrieta has an oppBA of .299, a WHIP of 1.60, a strand rate of 90% and a swing and miss rate of 7%. This does not add up to a 3.00 ERA. Arrieta has been without question the luckiest pitcher in baseball. His 6.64 ERA over his past two starts is twice as high as his actual ERA. In his last start against the Mets, EVERY ball hit was scorched but somehow it was right at somebody. Jake Arrieta is the best candidate in the majors for a serious ERA regression and we’re all over it.
Houston @ MINNESOTA
Houston +104 over MINNESOTA
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)
Sam Deduno is very often a live underdog but as the chalk he has absolutely no value whatsoever. Deduno has six pure quality starts in 13 tries. He keeps inducing groundballs at a staggering rate but there isn't much else here to like. His subpar k rate limits his upside and while his control has made strides, his baseline says that can't be trusted. Over his last five starts covering 28 frames, Deduno has a weak BB/K split of 11/17. Over his last three starts, he’s walked eight and struck out eight. Deduno is never constantly ahead in the count. He falls behind hitters 2-0, 3-0 and 3-1 and his WHIP dramatically fluctuates from game to game. Deduno remains one of the highest risk/reward pitchers in baseball and when he’s favored that risk increases. If the Astros don’t help him out, they’ll knock him out early.
Colin McHugh just keeps getting better. This guy has ace written all over him. McHugh had an excellent showing in May with 9.4 K’s per nine and a 46% groundball rate. His 3.19 xERA in May confirms that there was no luck involved. Overall, McHugh has an exceptional BB/K split of 54/14 in 50 innings. His high strikeout rate is backed by an elite 13% swing and miss rate. He has great command against both LH and RH bats. His key has been two dominant pitches, a slider (16% swing and miss rate) and curveball (18% swing and miss rate). In addition, his four-seam fastball (10% swing and miss rate) and changeup (8% swing and miss rate) are more than just show pitches. What makes McHugh even more appealing here is that the Twinkies have never seen him before. McHugh should not be a pup against Deduno…EVER. Invest.
N.Y. Mets @ SAN FRANCISCO
N.Y. Mets +131 over SAN FRANCISCO
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.62)
It may surprise you to learn that the Mets lead the NL in runs scored on the road with 153. That’s third in the majors behind Oakland and Toronto. The closest team to them in the NL is the Dodgers with 146 and now the Mets get an opportunity to do more damage against Tim Lincecum. Lincecum is a pitcher in trouble. He comes into this start with a 5.01 ERA and having walked 20 batters over his past 29 frames. He also has one of the worst WHIPS (1.58) among starters and his dominant start/disaster split of 50%/50% reveals just how high a risk he really is. As a significant favorite, Lincecum is pure fade material.
Zack Wheeler is the opposite. Wheeler’s 2-5 W/L record and 4.23 road ERA makes him a strong, buy-low candidate. Wheeler’s 94-mph four-seam fastball velocity is the sixth-highest among qualified NL starters. Over his last trhee starts, Wheeler has allowed two runs or less in all of them. He has 69 K’s in 69 innings and his 16% swing and miss rate over his last three starts was the second highest in the majors over a three start span. Wheeler’s groundball rate is increasing and is now at an elite 54% on the season. Over his last three starts, that GB rate was 57%. Zack Wheeler has outstanding raw stuff and is a pitcher on the rise. He’s allowed just six hits over his past 13 frames and over his last four starts his ERA has dropped from 4.89 to its current 3.89. We’re all about playing value and this might be the best value play on today’s board.
Boston @ DETROIT
DETROIT -1 +114 over Boston
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.28)
The Red Sox have dropped five in a row and 16 of their last 22 games. During its current five-game losing streak, Boston has been outscored 29-17. On the road this year against right-handers, the Red Sox are hitting a measly .219 and now they’ll face one of the best in the game in Anibal Sanchez. After a slow start, Sanchez has once again found his groove with three consecutive pure quality starts heading into this one. Not only does he have filthy stuff but he owns a 0.82 WHIP and 2.76 ERA this season at Comerica. In his last 15.1 IP, this right-hander has allowed just one run, while walking just one and fanning 14 and those numbers were posted against Oakland and Toronto. Sanchez basically just needs to show up today to dominate this lineup.
John Lackey is having a fine year but the Red Sox have lost three of his last four starts and Lackey does not have a good history against these current Tigers. In fact, current Detroit hitters have 71 career hits in 209 AB’s against Lackey for a BA of .340 and a sick OPS of .940. The Tigers bats have woken up with 14 runs in the past two games and they can smell a wounded prey when they see one.
MLB
Miami @ CHICAGO
Miami -101 over CHICAGO
(Risking 2.02 units - To Win: 2.00)
Henderson Alvarez is not as good as his 2.62 ERA suggests but that’s something we’ll elaborate on at a later date. Frankly, we couldn’t care less about who was starting for the Fish because this one is all about fading the opposition’s starter.
The Cubbies have won the first three games of this series but they had an edge facing Randy Wolf and Brian Flynn in two of the three games. In the other game, Cubs ace Jason Hammel defeated Nathan Eovaldi 5-3 but things take a turn for the worse here for the Cubbies. Jake Arietta is 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA after six starts. When talking about misleading surface stats, Jake Arrieta leads the universe in that department. Arrieta has an oppBA of .299, a WHIP of 1.60, a strand rate of 90% and a swing and miss rate of 7%. This does not add up to a 3.00 ERA. Arrieta has been without question the luckiest pitcher in baseball. His 6.64 ERA over his past two starts is twice as high as his actual ERA. In his last start against the Mets, EVERY ball hit was scorched but somehow it was right at somebody. Jake Arrieta is the best candidate in the majors for a serious ERA regression and we’re all over it.
Houston @ MINNESOTA
Houston +104 over MINNESOTA
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)
Sam Deduno is very often a live underdog but as the chalk he has absolutely no value whatsoever. Deduno has six pure quality starts in 13 tries. He keeps inducing groundballs at a staggering rate but there isn't much else here to like. His subpar k rate limits his upside and while his control has made strides, his baseline says that can't be trusted. Over his last five starts covering 28 frames, Deduno has a weak BB/K split of 11/17. Over his last three starts, he’s walked eight and struck out eight. Deduno is never constantly ahead in the count. He falls behind hitters 2-0, 3-0 and 3-1 and his WHIP dramatically fluctuates from game to game. Deduno remains one of the highest risk/reward pitchers in baseball and when he’s favored that risk increases. If the Astros don’t help him out, they’ll knock him out early.
Colin McHugh just keeps getting better. This guy has ace written all over him. McHugh had an excellent showing in May with 9.4 K’s per nine and a 46% groundball rate. His 3.19 xERA in May confirms that there was no luck involved. Overall, McHugh has an exceptional BB/K split of 54/14 in 50 innings. His high strikeout rate is backed by an elite 13% swing and miss rate. He has great command against both LH and RH bats. His key has been two dominant pitches, a slider (16% swing and miss rate) and curveball (18% swing and miss rate). In addition, his four-seam fastball (10% swing and miss rate) and changeup (8% swing and miss rate) are more than just show pitches. What makes McHugh even more appealing here is that the Twinkies have never seen him before. McHugh should not be a pup against Deduno…EVER. Invest.
N.Y. Mets @ SAN FRANCISCO
N.Y. Mets +131 over SAN FRANCISCO
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.62)
It may surprise you to learn that the Mets lead the NL in runs scored on the road with 153. That’s third in the majors behind Oakland and Toronto. The closest team to them in the NL is the Dodgers with 146 and now the Mets get an opportunity to do more damage against Tim Lincecum. Lincecum is a pitcher in trouble. He comes into this start with a 5.01 ERA and having walked 20 batters over his past 29 frames. He also has one of the worst WHIPS (1.58) among starters and his dominant start/disaster split of 50%/50% reveals just how high a risk he really is. As a significant favorite, Lincecum is pure fade material.
Zack Wheeler is the opposite. Wheeler’s 2-5 W/L record and 4.23 road ERA makes him a strong, buy-low candidate. Wheeler’s 94-mph four-seam fastball velocity is the sixth-highest among qualified NL starters. Over his last trhee starts, Wheeler has allowed two runs or less in all of them. He has 69 K’s in 69 innings and his 16% swing and miss rate over his last three starts was the second highest in the majors over a three start span. Wheeler’s groundball rate is increasing and is now at an elite 54% on the season. Over his last three starts, that GB rate was 57%. Zack Wheeler has outstanding raw stuff and is a pitcher on the rise. He’s allowed just six hits over his past 13 frames and over his last four starts his ERA has dropped from 4.89 to its current 3.89. We’re all about playing value and this might be the best value play on today’s board.
Boston @ DETROIT
DETROIT -1 +114 over Boston
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.28)
The Red Sox have dropped five in a row and 16 of their last 22 games. During its current five-game losing streak, Boston has been outscored 29-17. On the road this year against right-handers, the Red Sox are hitting a measly .219 and now they’ll face one of the best in the game in Anibal Sanchez. After a slow start, Sanchez has once again found his groove with three consecutive pure quality starts heading into this one. Not only does he have filthy stuff but he owns a 0.82 WHIP and 2.76 ERA this season at Comerica. In his last 15.1 IP, this right-hander has allowed just one run, while walking just one and fanning 14 and those numbers were posted against Oakland and Toronto. Sanchez basically just needs to show up today to dominate this lineup.
John Lackey is having a fine year but the Red Sox have lost three of his last four starts and Lackey does not have a good history against these current Tigers. In fact, current Detroit hitters have 71 career hits in 209 AB’s against Lackey for a BA of .340 and a sick OPS of .940. The Tigers bats have woken up with 14 runs in the past two games and they can smell a wounded prey when they see one.
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