6-11-14

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Jimmy Boyd

3* White Sox +135

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Marc Lyle NHL GOY
76-40 On the season

NY Rangers

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BOB BALFE

ATLANTA BRAVES -140
COLORADO ROCKIES/ATLANTA BRAVES – OVER 10

(Teheran/Matzuk)
This Rockies team is in trouble. They are missing some key guys and have now lost 10 of the last 11 yet they still are the best hitting team in the NL. They are built to score at home and I expect a few runs tonight. The Rockies will be pitching a rookie tonight making his debut so it is the perfect storm for an OVER play. The Rockies are not playing solid defense and their bullpen is no good. Look for the Braves to win much like last night. Take the Braves and the Over.

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Sean Murphy

Seattle Mariners

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MLB Odds and Picks
By: Micah Roberts
Sportingnews

LAS VEGAS -- The Angels came through in a huge moment for their season last night against the A's with a 2-1 win in the 14th inning. After failing to get a runner home from scoring position in almost every inning during the extra frames, Collin Cowgill hit a solo shot to win the game which extended the Angels season-high win streak to five games.

This current group of Angels that has been underachieving for most of the past two seasons might have passed the gut check test, or at least the June version. They could have folded like the 2013 team, but they battled hard against a club that owns the AL's best record and a 2.5-game lead in AL West.

The A's had beaten them in five of six games prior to this series. Now, the Angels are up 2-0 in this series and go for the sweep tonight behind ace Jered Weaver (7-4, 3.31 ERA), who is a -130 favorite over Tommy Milone (3-3, 3.68). If the playoffs began today, the Angels would finally make the party.

Two weeks ago, the A's knocked Weaver around pretty good in a 6-3 win at Oakland to complete a three-game sweep over the Angels. He gave up a season-high 11 hits and six runs (five earned) and struck out a season-low two batters. That outing is in stark contrast to what he had done against the A's in his previous 11 starts going 8-1 with a 0.87 ERA. He's been even better at home against them, winning his past four starts with a 0.78 ERA.

After starting the season on a rough note where the Angels lost his first three games, he has been stellar -- outside of that Oakland game -- with the Angels going 7-3 behind him. At home, he's gone 4-1 with a 2.05 ERA in his past five starts.

Between the Angels on a winning streak, Weaver being dominant lately at home -- and in the past against Oakland -- there are a few reasons to side with the Angels tonight. But then you've got a few of the A's key batters mired in slumps. Josh Donaldson is everyone's choice to start at third base for the AL in the All-Star game, but he's zero for his last 21. Slumping as well are Alberto Callaspo (1-for-27), Jed Lowrie (0-for-20) and Eric Sogard (1-for-12).

Hamels owns Padres

The Phillies are 11-22 since May 25 and tied with the Cubs for the NL's worst record (26-36), but things seem to get better for them when they play the Padres, who they've beaten 26 of the past 34 meetings. They entered Tuesday's series with the Padres having lost eight of their previous nine, but grabbed a 5-2 win.

That modest one-game win streak should be doubled tonight as Cole Hamels (2-3, 3.49 ERA) takes the mound as a -125 favorite against Tyson Ross (6-5, 3.22). The Phillies have only won twice in Hamels' nine starts, but he can be blamed for maybe only three of those losses. Over his last six starts, he's posted a 2.11 ERA while pitching at least seven innings in each, and comes off his best outing of the season where he out-dueled Johnny Cueto and Cincinnati in an 8-0 win.

While the Padres' players have drastically changed since 2008, it hasn't mattered what lineup has been thrown his way. When Hamels see's the Padres uniform, he takes his game up a notch.

He's 8-1 with a 2.27 ERA in his last 11 starts against San Diego, winning his last five decisions against them.

Tonight's play on the Phillies definitely isn't on the team, it's all about Hamels to keep his strong efforts going.

Ryu rules on road

Johnny Cueto (5-5, 1.97 ERA) is always an imposing name to bet against, but with him going 1-3 with a 4.13 ERA over his past four starts, listening to what his opponent has to offer at plus-money should be considered. In today's case, we have Hyun-jin Ryu (7-2, 3.08) and the Dodgers getting +115 at Cincinnati. In six road starts this season, Ryu is 5-0 with a 0.95 ERA and he's won all four of his starts since coming off the disabled list.

The Dodgers are playing well lately, riding a three-game winning streak as they look to take the third game of this four-game set at Cincinnati. They have the best road record in baseball (22-12) and play a team that is reeling. The Reds have lost five of their last seven and have scored two runs or fewer in each loss. Cueto has pitched well against the Dodgers over his career, but is still only 1-5 in seven starts. Look for the run support to be a problem again for Cueto tonight.

Wednesday selections:

Angels (Weaver) -130 vs. A's

Phillies (Hamels) -125 vs. Padres

Dodgers (Ryu) +115 at Reds

Astros (Keuchel) -120 vs Diamondbacks

Cardinals (Wacha) -128 at Rays

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Indian Cowboy
MLB Comp

under 8.5 #927/928 Miami Marlins vs Texas Rangers (8:05pm EDT)

3* Reds -121

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Sports Cash System

extra pick:

Houston Astros -126 over the Arizona Diamondbacks (Money Line Bet) (MLB Baseball) - Game Starts at 8:10 PM EST

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Goodfella

Wednesday Night MLB Team Total

WASHINGTON NATIONALS- OVER 3 RUNS (-125)

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Sports Cash System Play of The Day for Today: 6/11

MLB Baseball

St. Louis Cardinals -125 over the Tampa Bay Rays
(Money Line Bet)
Overall Record: 270-241
(System Record: 270-13, Won last game)

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HARRY BONDI FREE PLAY

MLB

HOUSTON (-125) over Arizona
8:10 p.m. ET

Tonight’s Arizona starter Brandon McCarthy has been the biggest money burner in baseball this season. If you had bet $100 on all of his starts so far you would be down a whopping $1,024. Diamondbacks are 2-11 in games he starts and tonight he is facing Astros’ starter Dallas Keuchel, who is the third best starter so far this season. If you bet $100 on all of his starts you would be plus $783. So let’s back him and the Stros over the snakes tonight.

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Behind The Bets
Pirates
Phillies
Dodgers
Marlins
Astros
Giants

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SPORTSWAGERS

MLB

San Diego @ PHILADELPHIA

San Diego/PHILADELPHIA under 7 -104

(Risking 2.08 units - To Win: 2.00)

Does anyone remember just how good Cole Hamels can be? Hamels' rough start to 2013, captured by that first half high ERA set the narrative for the whole year. He got off to another difficult start this year but his skills tell a different story. In fact, Hamels’ skills remain remarkably consistent and elite and they are touching new highs right now. Over his last six starts covering 43 innings, Hamels has struck out 45 batters and posted an ERA of 2.11, which is right in line with his 2.39 xERA. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 53%/18%/34% over that same stretch shows the difficulty batters are having hitting anything hard off him. In fact, Hamels’ groundball rate in his last start was 80%, as he absolutely breezed through 7.2 innings at Cincinnati. He’ll now face a Padres team that is seeing BB’s and that is dead last in the majors with a BA of .210 against southpaws.

Then there’s Tyson Ross. His huge breakout is masked only by his poor team. Ross has found command of a beastly slider and has become one of the toughest starters to hit in the NL. Ross began his skills surge in the 2nd half of last season and has not slowed down in the slightest. He has 77 K’s in 81 innings, an elite 13% swing and miss rate and the highest groundball tilt in the major leagues at 61%. Over his last five starts, Ross has struck out 32 batters in 30 innings with a groundball/fly-ball split of 64%/20%. For this one to go over, one of these offenses has to go off because the other is very likely going to get a gem thrown against them.


Cleveland @ KANSAS CITY

Cleveland +111 over KANSAS CITY

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.22)

2:10 PM EST. Trevor Bauer has only made five starts since his call-up in May, but he certainly made the most of them with a BB/K split of 11/35 in 28 innings. Bauer has been a high-profile prospect since taken in the first round of the 2011 draft out of UCLA. Traded from Arizona to Cleveland prior to 2013, he took a big step back at Triple-A Columbus. He struggled to limit walks and keep the ball in the ballpark but much of his 2013 struggles can be attributed to a groin injury. An unlucky 31% hit rate and high 17% hr/f have both hurt his ERA (4.08) and WHIP (1.29) but he’ll now face a Royals team that is dead last in the majors in home runs. Also note that Bauer’s last four starts came against Texas, Colorado, Baltimore and Detroit and he’ll now take a big step down in class. This kid has a high ceiling.

Yordano Ventura had recent concerns around his elbow and thus was skipped for one turn in the rotation. He came back in his last outing and was only able to muster one K in six innings. Over his last three starts, he has a 7/5 K/BB, while allowing 11 ER over 14.2 IP. In seven home starts, he is 1-4 with a 4.25 ERA and 1.39 WHIP over 36 IP. Over his last five starts, Ventura has posted a 5.27 ERA along with a 1.61 WHIP. This little guy with the big arm (fastball touches 100 MPH) may be a pitcher in peril and it’s worth nothing that his secondary offerings are definitely a work in progress. The opposing Indians have a top-5 OPS (.754) when facing right handed pitching and the Royals have dropped five of the last six games that Ventura has started.


Boston @ BALTIMORE

Boston +113 over BALTIMORE

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.26)

Wei-Yin Chen has four pure quality starts in 12 tries this season. Yeah, he doesn’t walk many and yeah he usually gives the Orioles a chance to win but a 4.13 ERA along with a 1.32 WHIP make this very average pitcher unappealing as the chalk. In 39 innings at Camden Yards, Chen has a BAA of .288. In eight night games, his BAA is .297. Chen is a pitcher that relies heavily on his defense and good fortune, as the ball is almost always in play when he pitches. As a pooch throwing for a team with a good offense, Chen does have value when offered a tag but that’s not the case here.

Rubby De La Rosa has made just two starts but in those 13 innings he has walked just two batters while whiffing 13. Those 13 K’s are supported by his elite 14% swing and miss rate. De La Rosa has experienced a long road back after TJ surgery in 2011 and he’s looking stronger with each passing week. De La Rosa owns pure arm strength and can light up radar guns with his fastball that’ll sit between 93-98 mph and is tough to hit. He throws with whip-like arm action which gives him deception and pitch movement. De La Rosa also uses a slider and changeup. When on, his sharp slider exhibits nasty action and he throws it for strikes consistently. In his two starts, De La Rosa has an xERA of 2.66 to go along with a an elite groundball/fly-ball split of 54%/26%. De La Rosa has a much higher ceiling than Chen and is one of the best “but-low” targets on the market. This is true value.


Arizona @ HOUSTON

Arizona +111 over HOUSTON

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.22)

Pitching for the Astros, Dallas Keuchel has been undervalued the entire year…….until now. We’re always mindful of the buy-low/sell high theory and that comes into play here. Keuchel is 7-3 with a 2.50 ERA after 12 starts. The Astros have won seven of his last nine starts and overall in those 12 starts, Keuchel has been a dog 11 times and favored just one time. That one time he was favored occurred at home when he was -114 against Chris Tillman and the Orioles. Baltimore won that game 4-1. Now Keuchel is at his highest price of the year (-120) and that makes us instant sellers. Don’t get us wrong, Keuchel is good but he’s also been greatly aided by an 85% strand rate over his last seven starts. He’ll now face a Diamondbacks team that has quietly won six of their past eight games while scoring 55 times over that span.

In 13 starts, Brandon McCarthy is 1-8 with a 5.13 ERA. A crazy 22% hr/f against RH bats, the second-highest mark in MLB is the main cause of that misleading ERA and what makes that even crazier is that McCarthy has an elite groundball rate of 55%. One could safely call Brandon McCarthy the unluckiest pitcher in baseball but his skills scream out that ERA regression is 100% inevitable. In 79 innings, McCarthy has 72 K’s while issuing just 14 walks. That’s outstanding control with a strong K rate. He also has a groundball/fly-ball split of 55%/23% for one of the best GB/FB profiles in the game. McCarthy’s swinging strike rate of 12% supports his 72 strikeouts. McCarthy’s xERA on the year is 3.06 and his xERA over his past five starts is 2.82. You rarely see a pitcher with an xERA more than two runs higher or lower than his actual ERA but that’s the case with McCarthy. You are about to see significant improvement in McCarthy’s surface stats because his skills say so. This is a top-shelf pitcher at a second or third-tier price. Invest.


Atlanta @ COLORADO

Atlanta -1½ +121 over COLORADO

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.42)

It hasn't taken long for Julio Teheran to live up to his lofty prospect status. Teheran posted a 3.20 ERA in 2013 in his his first full MLB season and all he's done since then is post an elite 1.89 ERA and 0.93 WHIP through 13 starts in 2014. There is some ERA regression coming because he’s a fly-ball pitcher but his strikeout and walk ratios are in great shape and his swinging-strike rate of 13% hints there could be a K boost in the very near future. He’ll now face a Rockies team that has lost 14 of 16 and that is without Carlos Gonzalez, Michael Cuddyer, and Nolan Arenado.

The Rockies pitching staff is a complete mess. They have allowed 16, 12 and 13 runs against in three of their past six games and their pen has an ERA of 7.02 over the past 10 games. With injuries decimating its starters, Colorado has called up Tyler Matzek to make his major league debut. Matzek is a replacement starter for Eddie Butler, who was just recently called up and pitched one game before landing on the DL. Matzek is not major-league ready. He’s an emergency starter that will be heading back to the minors after this one start. He came into the year as the #13 prospect in the Rockies organization and has done nothing to improve that ranking. He is always fighting the strike zone and ends up walking too many batters. When a walk rate of 4.2/9 is the best of your career it becomes a big problem. At this park at this level, falling behind in the count and subsequently being forced into throwing fastballs is a big problem that Matzek will not overcome here. In 106 career minor league starts, Matzek has struck out 508 in 537.2 IP and walked 360, which contributed to a cumulative 1.58 WHIP at the minor league level. In 12 games at Colorado Springs this season, Matzek posted a 4.05 ERA, a .265 BAA and surrendered eight jacks in 66 innings. Looks like another long evening for the Rockies.

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DHayes2

2* Over 6.5- Sea/NYY -125

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Dave Essler

3* sd padres ML

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NonStopSportsPicks

2* Under 8.5 Tigers/White Sox

Here we have a great pitcher, Verlander, and a gamer, Danks going. We don't back Verlander much, just because the price is usually TOO inflated and there's little to no value. But we do look to the UNDER if we can find enough stats/situational analysis to back the UNDER. Danks, who is a gamer, usually finds a way to keep his teams in games and Verlander SHOULD be able to do enough to shut down the White Sox. Add to that these pitchers got an extra day to rest & prepare for the offenses & the fact that the weather could STILL be an issue, at least to keep the ball from flying out of the park. Look for a close game, with Danks keeping the Sox close, and we'll take a 2* stab on the UNDER.