6-16-14

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No Limit Sports

World Cup

2* Draw (Ghana vs USA) +210

1* Portugal +.5 (+112)

1* Nigeria -.5 (+117)

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Cappers Access

Cubs +110
Padres -115

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Baseball Crusher
Oakland Athletics -138 over Texas Rangers
(System Record: 43-0, won last game)
Overall Record: 43-33

Rest of the Plays
Miami Marlins -117 over Chicago Cubs
San Diego Padres -109 over Seattle Mariners
Milwaukee Brewers +101 over Arizona Dbacks

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Soccer Crusher
Mexico +1.5 over Brazil
This match is happening in FIFA
(System Record: 589-21, lost last 3 games)
Overall Record: 589-494-85

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MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Hamels is 1-0, 0.79 in his last three starts, Teheran is 4-1, 2.78 in his last five.
-- Hammel is 1-1, 1.89 in his last three starts.
-- Peralta is 2-0, 3.97 in his last couple starts.
-- Ryu is 4-1, 3.73 in his last five starts. Matzek won his first MLB start, allowing two runs in seven IP.

-- Vargas is 2-0, 2.25 in his last four starts.
-- Chen is 2-0, 1.45 in his last three starts.
-- Pomeranz is 4-2, 2.35 in seven starts this year.

-- Ross is 3-2, 3.25 in his last seven starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Koehler is 1-2, 7.25 in his last four starts.
-- Mets are 1-5 in deGrom's starts (0-1, 5.29 in last three). Martinez is making second MLB start, first this year; he allowed four runs in 4.2 IP in his only start, at home against the Dodgers. He is 0-3, 4.67 so far this season, pitching 34.2 innings in 30 appearances.
-- McCarthy is 0-3, 6.94 in his last four starts.


-- Weaver is 1-2, 6.23 in his last three starts. Bauer is 0-2, 5.32 in his last four.
-- Verlander is 1-4, 8.53 in his last five starts.
-- Correia is 2-4, 5.12 in his last seven starts. de la Rosa is 0-2, 6.35 in his last two starts.
-- Odorizzi is 0-3, 5.74 in his last three starts.
-- Lewis is 0-1, 8.04 in his last three starts.

-- Young is 0-2, 6.30 in his last couple starts.


Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Hamels 2-10; Teheran 5-14 (3 of last 3)
-- Hammel 2-13; Koehler 2-13
-- de Grom 0-6; Martinez 0-0
-- Peralta 1-13; McCarthy 3-14
-- Matzek 0-1; Ryu 1-12

-- Weaver 2-14; Bauer 2-6
-- Vargas 1-14; Verlander 4-14
-- Correia 2-13; de la Rosa 0-3
-- Chen 4-13; Odorizzi 0-13
-- Lewis 3-11; Pomeranz 0-7


-- Ross 4-13; Young 2-12

Totals
-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Atlanta home games.
-- Four of last five Cub games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Met games stayed under total.
-- Over is 14-4-1 in last nineteen Milwaukee games.
-- Over is 5-0-1 in last six Colorado games.

-- Four of last five Cleveland games stayed under.
-- Over is 9-3-1 in last thirteen Detroit home games.
-- Eight of last nine games at Fenway Park stayed under.
-- Six of last nine Tampa Bay games stayed under.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Oakland games.

-- Eight of last eleven San Diego games stayed under.


Hot teams
-- Cardinals won six of their last seven games.
-- Rockies won their last five games.
-- Milwaukee won four of its last five road games.

-- Royals won their last seven games. Detroit won three of its last four games.
-- Indians won their last nine home games.
-- Tampa Bay won three of its last four games. Baltimore won four of its last five road games.
-- A's won five of their last six home games. Texas won three of last four games.


Cold teams
-- Philly lost seven of its last eight road games. Braves lost five of their last seven home games.
-- Cubs lost eight of their last twelve road games. Miami lost six of its last nine home games.
-- Mets lost nine of last 12 games, including last six on road.
-- Arizona lost four of its last five games.
-- Dodgers are 4-6 in their last ten home games.

-- Angels lost seven of their last nine road games.
-- Red Sox lost nine of their last thirteen games. Minnesota is 8-14 in its last 22.

-- Seattle lost its last five games. Padres lost ten of their last thirteen.

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Monday's World Cup Tips
By Toby Maxtone-Smith

Germany vs. Portugal (ESPN, 12:00 p.m.)

Germany face Portugal in what is definitely Monday’s Game of the Day at the Arena Fonte Nova in Salvador. The game pits two of Europe’s most likely winners against each other, and the result will probably determine the winner of Group F, unless either Ghana or USA causes a shock.

After arriving on the world stage in 2010, this German generation has reached two semi-finals before going out. It is a generation rich in attacking talent - very different from what they used to be like: defensive, physical, five in defense. Many people earmarked this tournament as one where Germany might be the team to beat, but the hype has cooled over the last six months. The squad does not look as good as the one Joachim Löw took to Euro 2012, but a succession of injuries has robbed Germany of some of their best players. Marco Reus will be a particularly big loss.

They only go into the competition with one recognized striker, and although Miroslav Klose’s World Cup record is stellar, he is now 36. Travel times, as well have locations and times of games, have conspired against Germany.

Portugal’s main strength is the interesting link-up play between midfielders…. ah who am I kidding? It’s Cristiano Ronaldo. While they are not quite a ‘one-man team’, their whole strategy is set up to get the best out of the current World’s Best Player. The rest of the team is competent, with João Moutinho and Fabio Coentrão particularly good. With Cristiano in the side, Portugal will have a chance in any match they play.

Germany are the 19/20 favorites with Sportsbooks, but I can’t have any of that. Not one area of the team is hugely convincing, and I’m swaying towards backing Portugal at 5/2. The draw is a 13/5 shot. Interestingly there have been no draws in the ten games so far in Brazil.

Let’s have a look at the goalscorer markets where, despite representing the underdog, Cristiano Ronaldo leads the betting at 4/1. He scored 51 goals in 47 matches this year and is now probably just ahead of arch-rival Lionel Messi. The German goalscorer I like is 6/1 Thomas Müller, the joint winner of the 2010 Golden Boot. He is a strange, ungainly type of player, but he has the intelligence to be in the right place at the right time, and is a fantastically hard worker.

This World Cup has been much more open than people expected, and I predict this game will be similar. Both teams to score is a 20/27 shot, but I prefer over 2.5 goals at 4/5. It has been very refreshing seeing proactive attitudes from most teams in Brazil, and I see no reason why Germany and Portugal will be any different.

Top Bet: Portugal to win at 5/2

United States vs. Ghana (ESPN, 6:00 p.m.)

We are still waiting for our first draw of the 2014 World Cup. And while the tournament has been much more open than expected, I am all over the 5/2 on Ghana and USA to draw. With Portugal and Germany the other teams in the group, this is a game neither team can afford to lose. It would all but end their tournament. Bookmakers are finding it almost impossible to split the two teams, with USA the very slight favorite at 8/5 against the 17/10 Ghanaians.

I would have Ghana as slight favorites. Although the USA’s long travel schedule will not yet have taken its toll, the conditions in Natal will be more favorable towards Ghana. Kwesi Appiah’s Black Stars are a real team, and they have a strength in depth virtually unrivalled on their continent. They were the most impressive team in African qualifying, scoring 26 in 8 games and conceding just 5.

This is a more youthful USA side than in previous World Cups, but I have a concern as to where the goals are going to come from, particularly after Jozy Altidore suffered a confidence-sapping season in the English Premier League at Sunderland.

Top Bet: Draw at 5/2

Nigeria vs. Iran (ESPN, 3:00 p.m.)

Iran face Nigeria in the middle game on Monday. The game comes from Group F, where Argentina and Bosnia are the other sides. Iran are simultaneously the most unknown and the least highly rated team at this World Cup. They are coached by the vastly experienced Carlos Queiroz, who is an expert in the art of building a solid defense. They scored only eight goals in eight games when they won their qualifying group, but conceded just twice. Their pre-tournament friendlies ended 0-0, 0-0, 1-1 and a 2-0 win.

It is easy to see them frustrating Nigeria who look short of creative talent. Their most creative midfielder is Jon Obi Mikel, who plays a very defensive role for Chelsea, and they may struggle to break down an unambitious Iranian side. My favorite bet here is under 2.5 goals at 69/100.

Nigeria go into the match as the 19/20 favorites - they have a strong and quick front three, but the question is how often they can get the ball to them. A draw is available at 5/2, with an Iran victory a 3/1 shot.

Top Bet: Under 2.5 goals at 69/100

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Goals still highlighting play in Brazil
Justin Hartling

If you like fast-past, high-scoring action you've been loving the World Cup so far.

Through 11 games and four days of action, their has only been one game that has scored less than three goals (Mexico/Cameroon). There has been a total of 37 goals tallied equaling an average of 3.4 goals per game. It may seem hard to believe, but the closing total before game time for Argentina vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina was three.

There is three games slated for Monday, highlighted by Portugal taking on Germany.

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Iran, Nigeria clash in World Cup Monday
By: Staff Writer - StatFox

2014 WORLD CUP SOCCER

IRAN vs. NIGERIA

Kickoff: Monday, 3:00 p.m. EDT
Arena da Baixada – Curitiba, Brazil

Line:Nigeria +105, Iran +230, Tie +225
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over +165, Under -208)

Group F play of the 2014 World Cup continues on Monday with an all-important matchup for both Iran and Nigeria.

An African nation reached the quarter-finals at two of the past three World Cups and Nigeria are technically the best of the 2014 contingent having won last year’s African Cup of Nations, so it is strange to find them 25th in the winner market betting. One reason is the disruptive behind-the-scenes buffoonery that sees coach Stephen Keshi friendless at executive level despite his success, constantly being undermined. The other is their failure to win a World Cup match yet this century. The Super Eagles unquestionably underperformed in 2002 and 2010 – and didn’t even qualify in 2006. However, this is the first time since their glorious debut in 1994, when they topped a group featuring Argentina and eventual semi-finalists Bulgaria, that they have entered the tournament as African champions.

The schedule has also kindly presented them with the perfect opportunity to scrub away their 21st-century hoodoo by facing un-fancied Iran first. Carlos Queiroz’s side are joint-bottom of the World Cup winner market and aren’t even a major force on their own continent, last lifting the AFC Asian Cup in 1976 and not contesting a single final at nine editions since. Their World Cup record is less flattering still. They have never escaped a group in three attempts, losing six of nine games, and were beaten in their opener each time.

Nigeria will hope that Emmanuel Emenike dominates the group stage as much as at last year’s African Cup of Nations, when he scored first in both of their initial two fixtures. With plus-money to be had, the pick here is for NIGERIA to pick up the victory.

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Germany and Portugal collide Monday
By: Staff Writer - StatFox

2014 WORLD CUP SOCCER

GERMANY vs. PORTUGAL

Kickoff: Monday, 12:00 p.m. EDT
Arena Fonte Nova – Salvador, Brazil

Line:Germany +105, Portugal +220, Tie +235
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over +105, Under -135)

Group G play of the 2014 World Cup opens on Monday with a marquee matchup between Germany and Portugal.

The Germany national team’s image has undergone a comprehensive makeover in the past eight years. Once begrudgingly praised as efficient, they are now lauded for their adventure, albeit with growing concern that they have shuffled a little too much to the left of the style-versus-substance scales. Third-place finishes at the last two World Cups, added to a Euro 2008 final appearance and Euro 2012 semi-final showing, have earned coach Joachim Low and his predecessor Jurgen Klinsmann much admiration given the rut the setup was perceived to be in previously.

There is a lingering fear though, that the trophy-delivering ruthlessness of old was lost in the construction of this more attractive approach, and that another heroic near-miss for the competition’s third favorites will not be tolerated. However, the evidence of the last few World Cups suggests that debate will briefly be blown away by a thrilling opening display against Portugal. In 2002, Germany started by savaging Saudi Arabia 8-0; in 2006, they outclassed Costa Rica 4-2 and in 2010, Australia were victims of a 4-0 assault.

Victory over Portugal was achieved when the pair clashed at the outset of Euro 2012 and Low’s side have won all three meetings between the nations since their current boom commenced in 2006, each of which was staged at a major tournament. Portugal, who conceded seven goals across the aforementioned three defeats, failed to kick off either World Cup 2010 or Euro 2012 with a win, despite qualifying from their group on both occasions. With plus-money, the pick here is GERMANY to prevail in a one-goal margin.

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USA opens World Cup play Monday vs. Ghana
By: Staff Writer - StatFox

2014 WORLD CUP SOCCER

GHANA vs. UNITED STATES

Kickoff: Monday, 6:00 p.m. EDT
Estadio das Dunas – Natal, Brazil

Line: Ghana +150, United States +170, Tie +205
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over +140, Under -169)

The United States begins its quest for its first-ever World Cup on Monday as the Americans are tabbed as slight underdogs to Ghana in their Group G opener.

Ghana prevailed in extra time when these two teams collided in the Round-of-16 at the last World Cup, yet the galling events that transpired six days on from that triumph appear to have caused lasting damage.

The Black Stars, who were popular with neutrals in South Africa as they sought to become Africa’s first ever world champions, had a would-be extra-time winner in the quarter-final against Uruguay illegally handballed off the line by Luis Suarez. They missed the ensuring penalty and then lost a penalty shootout immediately afterwards. Since then, a team that looked like its continent’s finest haven’t managed to prove it, finishing fourth in successive African Cup of Nations compared to third and second in the two before World Cup 2010. Though they were better in qualifying, Egypt were the best side that they faced, and the Pharaohs haven’t attended a World Cup since 1990.

USA by contrast unquestionably have improved, not only winning last year’s CONCACAF Gold Cup, but claiming victory in all six games and scoring 20 goals along the way. They dominated the Hexagonal phase of World Cup qualifying too, topping it by a four-point margin. In former Germany boss Jurgen Klinsmann, they have a coach who reached the final four of this tournament as a tactician in 2006 and won it as a player in 1990. On both occasions, his roster opened with a win and four goals. The first part at the very least is a viable target for the Stars and Stripes. In what should be a toss-up game, go for the bigger payout and wager on UNITED STATES to prevail.

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Yankees' Girardi expected Jays to be tough
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

OAKLAND, Calif. -- The New York Yankees, who are chasing Toronto in the American League East, will have a chance to make up some ground during a three-game series against the Blue Jays that begins Tuesday night at Yankee Stadium.

The Toronto series kicks off a stretch of 15 straight games against division foes for the Yankees -- six against the Blue Jays and three each against the Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays.

"You don't want to make too much of it, but it's obviously an important period when you're going to see the teams we're going to see," Yankees manager Joe Girardi said Sunday before the Yankees ended a 5-4 road trip with a 10-5 loss to Oakland. "Just a huge stretch against East Coast teams, and you have a chance to make up ground, put distance between other teams and yourself, so I think it's really important.

"When I look at our schedule, it's kind of weird. We're done on the West Coast, we're done with National League teams for the most part -- we have a few against Cincy. So obviously we need to start playing some teams in our own division."

The Blue Jays finished last in the East in 2013 with a 74-88 record, but they are off to a 41-30 start this season and lead the Yankees and Orioles by 4 1/2 games.

"They've swung the bats extremely well," Girardi said of the Blue Jays. "They play good defense and they've pitched well. ... They've played extremely well, and they've been consistent."

The Blue Jays never lived up to their hype entering the 2013 season, but Girardi said he certainly hasn't overlooked or underestimated them.

"No, because you knew how dangerous they were offensively," the New York skipper said. "They went through some injuries last year just like everybody else. Sometimes it's hard to overcome those. They've had a pretty consistent rotation for the most part this year. They've had to make some changes. They've had some guys that have gotten off to great starts, but we knew that they were very talented."

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Hardy callup gives Ausmus options in Detroit
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

DETROIT -- The addition of a third left-hander doesn't make Detroit's bullpen all right, but it does give Tigers' manager Brad Ausmus some more options.

Southpaw Blaine Hardy, 27, who came close to making the Tigers out of spring training, had his contract purchased from Triple-A Toledo on Sunday and will join Phil Coke and Ian Krol as left-handers Ausmus can call on in relief.

Hardy began the season in Toledo's rotation and made six starts to go with 14 relief appearances.

"Now I can use Coke earlier and maybe for one batter," Ausmus said.

Hardy would be in play for 2-3 innings in long relief, especially against upcoming opponents such as Kansas City and Cleveland that have a lot of left-handed and switch-hitters on their rosters.

Krol, who had a tender left shoulder as he earned his first save in the majors on Saturday, now can be used a little more sparingly. He has done well in the seventh and eighth innings for Detroit.

Hardy's best pitch is a curveball that he began learning in the Kansas City organization but refined this year when Detroit signed him after the Royals released him. It is now his 'out' pitch.

There's a difference in mindset when you're warming up for long relief as opposed to knowing you're just going to face one batter, Hardy said.

"If you give up a hit right away," he said, "it's not that big a deal if you know you're going to be pitching an inning or more.

"But it's important if you come in to face one batter and he gets a hit.

"So when you're warming up to face just one batter, you concentrate on what you're going to throw to that hitter. But if you know you're going an inning or more, you warm up using all your pitches."

With three lefties instead of two, look for Ausmus to do more one-batter, left-on-left and right-against-right situational work out of his bullpen.

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Today's MLB Picks

NY Mets at St. Louis

The Mets open up a series tonight in St. Louis against a Cardinals team that is 1-6 in its last 7 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. New York is the pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Mets favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+125). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, JUNE 16 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 951-952: Philadelphia at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.992; Atlanta (Teheran) 14.875 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-140); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+120); Over

Game 953-954: Chicago Cubs at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Hammel) 14.781; Miami (Koehler) 13.239 Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Miami (-120); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+100); Under

Game 955-956: NY Mets at St. Louis (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (deGrom) 15.882; St. Louis (Martinez) 14.932 Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 6 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-145); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+125); Under

Game 957-958: Milwaukee at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Peralta) 16.901; Arizona (McCarthy) 15.107 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 2; 10 Vegas Line: Arizona (-115); 9 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-105); Over

Game 959-960: Colorado at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Matzek) 12.042; LA Dodgers (Ryu) 14.867 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 3; 6 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-190); 7 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-190); Under

Game 961-962: LA Angels at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 17.010; Cleveland (Bauer) 16.065 Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 9 Vegas Line: LA Angels (-125); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-125); Over

Game 963-964: Kansas City at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Vargas) 12.974; Detroit (Verlander) 16.368 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 3 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Detroit (-155); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-155); Under

Game 965-966: Minnesota at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Correia) 13.769; Boston (De La Rosa) 15.076 Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 11 Vegas Line: Boston (-150); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-150); Over

Game 967-968: Baltimore at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Chen) 15.899; Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) 14.608 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-110); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-110); Over

Game 969-970: Texas at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Lewis) 16.806; Oakland (Pomeranz) 15.945 Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Oakland (-170); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Texas (+150); Under

Game 971-972: San Diego at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Ross) 13.569; Seattle (Young) 15.023 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: San Diego (-115); 7 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-105); Over

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StatFox Super Situations

MLB | CHICAGO CUBS at MIAMI
Play On - Any team (MIAMI) terrible speed team - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game on the season against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.100 over his last 10 games
116-85 over the last 5 seasons. ( 57.7% | 48.9 units )
2-3 this year. ( 40.0% | -0.6 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | KANSAS CITY at DETROIT
KANSAS CITY is 13-4 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in Road games with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games this season.
The average score was: KANSAS CITY (5.8) , OPPONENT (3.6)