6-16-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

Another day, another beating. Hondo, who split with the Royals and Nationals on Sunday, was on his way to a positive day when the Giants’ bullpen imploded in the eighth to send the NRN (nasty red number) soaring to 1,495 belinskys.

Monday night: Mr. Aitch expects the good Weaver (Jered, brother of Jeff aka the bad Weaver) to tame the Tribe — 10 units on the Angels.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Kings (series) on Friday and likes Germany on Monday.

The deficit is 325 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Andre Gomes

Early Soccer

1* Portugal (+0.5) -103

1* Under 2.75 Goals -112

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data

Free Plays Monday

Brewers -105

Kansas City +130

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Free Play MON

SL Cards -145

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baseball Crusher
Oakland Athletics -138 over Texas Rangers
(System Record: 43-0, won last game)
Overall Record: 43-33

Basketball Crusher

no play
(Playoff Record: system 20-1: overall 20-19-3, lost last game)
(Regular Season Record: 78-8)
Overall Record: 98-104-8

Soccer Crusher
Mexico +1.5 over Brazil
This match is happening in FIFA
(System Record: 589-21, lost last 3 games)
Overall Record: 589-494-85

Here are the rest of his baseball and basketball plays for today...


Baseball
Miami Marlins -117 over Chicago Cubs
San Diego Padres -109 over Seattle Mariners
Milwaukee Brewers +101 over Arizona Dbacks


Basketball
no play

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RIVER CITY SHARPS

We have a pretty interesting scenario we are going to try and take advantage of tonight as Tyson Ross (6-5, 2.97) and the San Diego Padres travel to begin a four game home-and-home set with the Seattle Mariners and Chris Young (5-4, 3.68) This is not an angle we play often, but we are looking at San Diego tonight as a "play against" due to their travel schedule on this current road trip. The Padres just finished a road series in New York against the Mets, where they lost 3-1. Now, they have to travel across the country without an off day to play a Mariners team that has been home and coming off a 5-1 win over the Texas Rangers. Young has been the victim of very little run support and the Mariners will try and give him more tonight as he faces a Padres team that has scored the fewest runs in MLB. The mariners are 4-1 in Young's last five home starts and the Padres are 1-4 in Ross' last five starts. The Padres have been struggling and are losers of six of their last seven games, now facing a cross country trip without a travel day. The Mariners are the right side here tonight. The Sharps say...
3 UNITS - SEATTLE MARINERS ML

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chase Diamond
CHASE'S 10* MLB DIAMOND PLAY
Philadelphia vs. Atlanta
Philadelphia +126

This game has the 29-38 Phillies at the 36-32 Braves. The Braves are the best team in the National League east no question but Hamels has been solid at 2-3 with a 3.07 ERA. I think Teheran is due for a letdown start and the Phillies should be motivated behind Hammels as he gives them their best chance at winning in any game of the series. Lets take the value plus money here for a 10* winner take the Phillies.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

World Cup Game of the Day: Germany vs. Portugal

Germany vs. Portugal (+115, +290, Draw +230)

The marquee matchup of preliminary round action takes place Monday afternoon at the Fonte Nova stadium as world No. 2 Germany tangles with No. 4 Portugal in the Group G opener. The Germans are looking for their first World Cup championship since unification, and are in great position to contend thanks to a talented group of defenders. But they should face resistance from the Portuguese despite injury concerns surrounding Cristiano Ronaldo.

Germany coasted through the qualifying session but sleepwalked through its pre-tournament friendlies. The loss of Bundesliga player of the year Marco Reus to an ankle injury is a crushing blow to a team that boasts one of the top defenses in the tournament but a startling lack of scoring punch for a team expected to contend for the title. Portugal needed some help to qualify, and Ronaldo's health is a major issue - but the roster is deep and talented.

WORLD RANKINGS: Germany: No. 2. Portugal: No. 4.

INJURY REPORT: Germany: MF Marco Reus suffered an ankle injury in the team's last friendly and will not play in the tournament; GK Manuel Neuer has been declared fit to play after missing a month with a shoulder injury. Portugal: F Cristiano Ronaldo is nursing tendinitis in his left knee but is expected to play despite missing a pair of tune-up games.

WHAT THE SHARPS SAY: "The fitness of Cristiano Ronaldo is still in doubt after the player limped off the training field the other day. With 49 International goals, his fitness will be key for Portugal. Should he not start, the chances of a German victory will look increasingly likely. Remember - the Germans have won the last three competitive games between the sides and are one of the favorites to go on and lift the World Cup." Covers Expert Footy Tipster.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "The opening game of the tournament for these two power house soccer nations. We have Germany listed as -175 favorites to win Group G and Portugal at +270. Germany is one of the favorites to win the World Cup at +500, but face a steep test in their opening match against Ronaldo and his Portugal squad. Right now the action is on Germany's side with 79 percent of the money and the Over 2.5 goal total is drawing 91 percent of the action." - Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.

ABOUT GERMANY: Stopping Ronaldo may be of paramount importance to the German side, but so is replacing Reus' skill set - and it won't be easy. The team's biggest scoring threat, Miroslav Klose, has scored 14 goals in 19 career World Cup matches but is 36 years old and is returning from a torn thigh muscle - marking his 19th injury since the previous World Cup. He isn't the only German player entering at less than full strength, suggesting that the Group G favorites may need to be even stingier on the defensive end if they hope to advance.

ABOUT PORTUGAL: Aside from the obvious Ronaldo-vs.-the-German-defense matchup, Portugal will need to win the midfield battle - and it could prove challenging given Germany's abundance of skilled midfielders. Plenty of eyes will be on late bloomer Joao Moutinho, who appeared for Portugal in the previous two European Championships but will be making his World Cup debut. Should Ronaldo falter, Moutinho and others will be called upon to pick up the slack - and their ability to do so will dictate whether Portugal can earn the upset win.

TRENDS:

* Germany and Portugal have faced off nine times in international history, with the Germans winning five of those matches while losing just once.
* The teams faced off in group play at the 2012 European Championships, with Germany earning a 1-0 win on a goal by Mario Gomez.
* Ronaldo is Portugal's all-time international scoring leader, converting 49 times in 111 appearances.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ANDRE GOMES (Soccer World Cup)

Soccer World Cup Play: Germany vs Portugal

***Game starts @12PM EST***

NOTE: I’ve made a detailed preview of Group G before the tournament began.

The “OVER’s” are hitting an absurd mark of 90% so far in the tournament (10-1 ATS) and obviously, the totals line of this contest is drifting towards the OVER which created some interesting value w/ UNDER. Note that I would play w/ Under in a regular 2.5 goals line ~ -110 / +110!

For those who follow these major tournaments, particularly the last EURO2012, I can say that you will watch basically the same Portuguese team on the field: they are extremely well organized, their tactical discipline and work-rate is outstanding – one of the best in the world and this fact alone, makes them a very tough team to beat! Their losses at this level have been all by one goal max and even @ penalty shootout vs. Spain in EURO2012. The problem for Portugal relies on the front… they don’t have many depth and versatility on the front, their strikers are more focused in working for the team and don’t have the proper scoring abilities but, fortunately for them, they have Cristiano Ronaldo – the world’s best player and really an incredible goal scoring machine! The problem is that CR7 isn’t 100% fit, and his health is really a mystery. He played in the last friendly for Portugal and looked decent, but I doubt that we will watch him @100% in any game of this competition.

Germany is the clear favorite to win this group but I expect them to struggle in here. Lately they have been playing without a “natural” striker on the front much like Pep Guardiola’s teams w/ a “false 9”. Because of that, they put more men on the midfield and they will control the ball possession quite easily. However, this bodes well for the Portuguese team who excels in playing without the ball, laid back a bit and then, throw quick fast paced transition plays w/ the main target being (obviously) Cristiano Ronaldo.

W/ current odds, Germany is 50% favored to win the game… I have them w/ 45% max of chances so, in my opinion we are getting some value w/ Portugal AH (+0.5). I expect this contest to be played mostly in the center of midfield w/ both teams having few chances to score. Sooner or later we’ll watch a Draw happening in the WC and this contest is great candidate for that.
NOTE: having the chance to grab Under 2.5 Goals @ plus money (odds > +100 / 2.00) has good value as well!

Pick: 1.5 units (“Half” Single Dime Play) on Portugal AH (+0.5) @ -103

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 2.75 Goals @ -112

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ecks and Bacon

E&B lost on Sunday in the NBA Finals with the Heat+6/Spurs.

"Mr Chalk" lost on Sunday in MLB in the National League with the Giants -180/Rockies.

For Monday in World Cup soccer E&B like $25 on USA +$200/Ghana and $25 on the draw +$240.

"Mr Chalk" has Np for Monday.

Ben lee is 146-174-5 -$3293 thru Thirty Three Weeks.

"Mr Chalk" is 31-30 -$750 for the 2014 MLB season.

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted.

[golden contender]

GC: MLB Play

Monday card has 3 Perfect system MLB Plays, 2 are totals and one is a Blowout system winning by 4 runs per game. There is also a World Cup Winner up. Congrats to the Spurs and all who jumped on our NBA Playoff GOY and MLB Top play winners. Free Play below.


On Monday the free MLB System Play is on the Oakland A/s. Game 970 at 10:05 eastern. The A/s Are home for Texas here tonight after blasting the Yankees 10-5. They take on a Texas team that lost 5-1 in Seattle. Oakland fits a nice 85% system here tonight that plays on certain home favorites with a total that is 8 or less if they won by 5 or more runs as a home favorite at -140 more higher and scored 10 or more runs, vs an opponent off a road dog loss and scored 2 or more runs on 5 or more hits if both teams had 1 or less errors. Oakland has D. Pomeranz on the mound and they have won his last 3 home starts and he has a solid 1.88 in his starts. He takes on Colby Lewis and Texas has lost his last 3 road starts here in Oakland. The Athletics are 18-6 in games where the posted total is 8 to 8.5 and average 5 runs per game. With Texas having lost 4 of 5 as a road dog in this range will back Oakland tonight. On Monday start the week big in bases with 3 Huge Never lost league wide system plays that all date to 2004. Two are totals and is one a blowout system that wins by an average 4 runs per game. Congrats to all that jumped on for Fathers day Sunday as we nailed out NBA Highest rated play on the Spurs and also cashed the under, while hitting the MLB Top play. We also have a World Cup Play. Jump on now and cash out on Monday. For the free play. Take Oakland. GC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

100* Brewers -110

50* Marlins -120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZWINNERS

2* Indians +1.5 -165

2* Royals +1.5 -165

2* Rangers +1.5 -145

[Can'tPickAWinner]

XpertPicks

MONDAY BASEBALL

• Play Chicago Cubs +115 over Miami---Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
  7:00 PM EST

Tom Koehler has lost 21 of the last 34 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and he has lost 4 of the last 5 games when pitching on a Monday. Tom Koehler has lost 12 of the last 17 games when pitching with five or six days of rest and he has an ERA of 5.71 over the last three starts.

• Play Kansas City +150 over Detroit----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
  8:15 PM EST

Justin Verlander has lost 15 of the last 25 home games and he has lost 14 of the last 25 games vs. division opponents. Justin Verlander has lost 27 of the last 47 games when pitching as a favorite of -110 or higher and he has lost two of the last three games with an ERA of 6.64.