6-21-14

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Weekend MLB betting cheat sheet: McCarthy burning bettors bad

Here's a comprehensive look at betting notes for the weekend's major league action:

McCarthy Era a Bad One

Arizona starter Brandon McCarthy will look to reverse a horrible trend Saturday as he and the Diamondbacks welcome the San Francisco Giants. McCarthy enters the weekend ranked last in the majors in value ($-1,252), with Arizona going a woeful 2-13 in his starts so far this season.

Tanaka Means Quality

New York Yankees starter Masahiro Tanaka has an impressive streak going as he prepares to face the visiting Baltimore Orioles on Sunday. Tanaka has opened his career with 14 consecutive quality starts, racking up five double-digit strikeout efforts over that span.

Pitching Notes

* Chicago White Sox righty Andre Rienzo was once the highest-value starter in baseball, but will be looking to halt a personal four-game losing skid Saturday against host Minnesota. Rienzo has been an underdog in all 10 of his starts to date, and is 6-4 against the moneyline in those games.

* Detroit Tigers fireballer Max Scherzer will look to bounce back from his worst start of the season Sunday as he squares off against host Cleveland. Scherzer, who surrendered 10 runs over 4 1/3 innings last time out, is 8-4 with a 4.75 ERA in 16 career starts versus the Indians.

Hitting Notes

* Don't expect a home run barrage with St. Louis ace Adam Wainwright on the mound against Philadelphia Saturday. Members of the Phillies roster have combined for zero home runs in 131 career at-bats against Wainwright, striking out 32 times in the process.

* Sunday will feature a marquee pitcher-batter matchup as Texas ace Yu Darvish faces Mike Trout and the Los Angeles Angels. Trout has gotten the better of Darvish to date, batting .290 with four home runs in 31 career at-bats.

Totals Streak

San Diego Padres (0-5-1 O/U): Sound familiar? The Padres continue to confound oddsmakers, racking up six consecutive games in which they either scored or allowed one or fewer runs. San Diego is far and away the strongest Under bet in the league to date at 23-46-4 O/U.

Prop of the Day

Bettors may want to consider taking the Houston Astros to score first against Tampa Bay, a prop that pays -110. The Rays are the worst first-inning team in baseball, scoring just 22 times while batting a paltry .194.

Injury Notes

* Atlanta Braves hurler Gavin Floyd suffered a fractured elbow Thursday night and is out indefinitely. Floyd was solid in nine starts in his first season with the Braves, going 2-2 with a 2.65 ERA in nine starts; the Braves were 5-4 SU and 3-6 O/U in those contests.

* Boston Red Sox starter Clay Buchholz (knee) is expected to rejoin the major-league rotation sometime next week. Buchholz is 2-4 with a 7.03 ERA in 10 starts with the Red Sox, who are 4-6 SU and 6-3-1 O/U in those outings.

* Seattle Mariners DH Corey Hart (hamstring) will start a minor-league rehab assignment this weekend. Hart has been out since mid-May, with the Mariners going 16-14 SU, 8-20-2 O/U and earning 290 units in his absence.

Weather Watch

* Fans at Kauffman Stadium on Saturday afternoon will be greeted by wind blowing out to left field at 8 mph. Only one Royals home game last season featured wind blowing out to left - and it resulted in a 1-0 Kansas City victory.

* Busch Stadium is expected to see wind blowing out to center field at 6 mph for Sunday's game between host St. Louis and Philadelphia. The Cardinals went 7-2 SU while averaging 6.22 runs in nine games under similar conditions a season ago.

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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY

***** Saturday, 6/21/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #12
Major League Baseball totals of 10 runs or more are joining the likes of the stegosaurus and hand-written letters. With a surge in pitching quality and the crackdown on steroids in baseball, oddsmakers rarely tip the scales when it comes to double-digit totals. Heading into Friday’s action, the Colorado Rockies’ home tilt with the Milwaukee Brewers is pegged with a total of 10.5 runs – just the 25th double-digit total so far this season. Those sky-high numbers have produced a solid profit for those playing the Under, posting a 9-15-1 Over/Under record – 62 percent Under.

Last year, there were only 70 games with totals of 10 or more runs, and those expecting high-scoring contests were dealt a 28-39-3 Over/Under count – 58 percent Under. Over the past two MLB seasons there has been a drastic decline in double-digit totals and also how those games finished for bettors. The 2012 season featured 183 games with totals of 10 or more runs, with Over bettors squeaking out a modest 88-84-11 Over/Under mark (51 percent Over). The season before that, there were 106 games with double-digit totals in 2011, going 55-44-7 Over/Under – 55 percent Over.

This shift in offensive output isn't breaking news to anyone following baseball over the past half decade. The league average runs per game has been on the decline, dipping from 8.76 runs per game (4.38 runs per team) in 2010 to 8.56 in 2011, 8.64 in 2012, 8.34 in 2013 and 8.30 in 2014 – an average of just 4.15 runs scored per team. According to StatSystems Sports Expert Jude Ravo, prior to 2010, the lowest average run production per team over the past 17 MLB seasons was 4.60.

"There has definitely been a drastic drop in overall scoring in MLB the past few seasons and pitchers are dominating, especially since starters pitch fewer innings and managers are more likely to turn to middle relievers and other specialists out of the bullpen," says our Vegas Insider Ryan Taylor.

Even before this sudden power outage at the plate – and the correlated decrease in totals of 10 or more runs - baseball handicappers were wary of double-digit Over/Unders, with many refusing to play any number above 9.5 and any total set at fewer than seven runs. Many attribute high totals to risky outside factors like ballpark and wind.

“I generally assume that totals are set abnormally high for good reason, but can't see any value playing the Over when you're counting on the winning team to score at least six runs,” StatSystemsSports.net Systems Analyst Larry Hertner says. “I'm not surprised that the Under has been a solid bet over the last couple of years, with improved pitching across the board.”

Those ballpark and wind factors have absolutely played a big role in almost every double-digit total so far this season. The Colorado Rockies and their thin-aired homestead, Coors Field, are the most notorious culprits, responsible for 23 of the 25 double-digit Over/Unders in 2014. The Rockies have helped produce a 9-12-1 Over/Under record in those games heading into Friday evening’s 10.5-run total versus Milwaukee.

The unpredictable Chicago winds at Wrigley Field have factored into two double-digit totals this spring – April 4 versus Philadelphia (11) and April 24 versus Arizona (10). Both games played Under. The only other teams to provoke a total of 10 or more runs were the Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins, who clashed in the Rogers Centre on June 10 with a total of 10 runs. The hard-hitting Blue Jays, who lead the bigs in home runs with 95, were blanked 4-0 by the Twins, who boast a 4.29 collective ERA (26th in the majors).

Note: Coors Field has been the biggest factor when it comes to double-digit spreads since 2011. It has hosted 134 regular season games with totals of 10 or more runs, producing a 68-61-5 Over/Under (53 percent Over) record in that span.
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Betting Notes - Saturday

National League
•Phillies-Cardinals - 4:10 PM
--Hamels is 1-0, 0.00 (22.2 IP) in his last three starts.
--Wainwright is 1-0, 1.20 in his last two starts, but missed his last turn with an elbow issue.

--Philly won nine of its last eleven games.
--Cardinals lost their last three games.

--Under is 10-2-1 in last thirteen Cardinal games.

•Mets-Marlins - 4:10 PM
--DeGrom is 0-2, 6.75 in his last four starts.
--Koehler is 1-2, 6.99 in his last five starts.

--Mets lost nine of their last eleven road games.
--Marlins lost nine of their last fourteen home games.

--Under is 7-2-1 in New York's last ten games.

•Brewers-Rockies - 4:10 PM
--Peralta is 3-0, 3.93 in his last three starts.
--Friedrich is making first '14 start; he was 5-8, 6.17 in 16 big league starts back in 2012. He is 1-8, 7.89 in 13 AAA starts this season.

--Milwaukee won eight of its last ten road games.
--Rockies lost nine of their last twelve home games.

--Over is 7-1-2 in last Colorado games.

•Pirates- Cubs - 7:15 PM
--Worley threw seven shutout innings in his first '14 start.
--Wood is 2-0, 2.29 in his last three starts.

--Pirates lost four of their last five games.
--Cubs won nine of their last eleven home games.

--Five of last six games at Wrigley Field went over total.

•Braves-Nationals - 7:15 PM
--Teheran is 4-1, 2.47 in his last six starts.
--Fister is 5-1, 2.58 in his last six starts.

--Braves are 5-1 in second game of road series if they won opener.
--Washington won five of its last seven home games, but is 7-20 in its last 27 games against Atlanta. .

--Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Atlanta games.

•Giants-Arizona - 10:10 PM
--Vogelsong is 1-1, 5.70 in his last four starts.
--McCarthy is 0-4, 6.00 in his last four starts.

--Giants lost nine of their last ten games.
--Arizona lost seven of its last ten games.

--Under is 9-3 in Arizona's last twelve home games.

•Dodgers-Padres - 10:10 PM
--Beckett is 2-3, 2.18 in his last five starts, including a no-hitter.
--Ross is 0-2, 5.50 in his last three starts.

--Dodgers won five of their last seven games.
--San Diego won four of its last five home games.

--Six of last seven San Diego games stayed under the total.

American League
•Orioles-Yankees - 1:05 PM
--Norris is 3-0, 2.75 in his last three starts.
--Nuno is 0-3, 6.94 in his last seven starts.

--Orioles are 7-3 in second game of series if they lost the opener.
--Yankees won its last five home games.

--Six of last eight Baltimore road games went over total.

•White Sox-Twins - 2:10 PM
--Rienzo is 0-4, 10.50 in his last four starts.
--Correia is 1-1, 0.75 in his last two starts.

--White Sox lost seven of their last nine road games.
--Minnesota lost five of its last seven games, but won last two.

--Over is 9-3-1 in White Sox' last thirteen games.

•Mariners-Royals - 2:10 PM
--Young is 3-2, 3.18 in his last five starts.
--Vargas is 3-0, 2.31 in his last five starts.

--Mariners lost seven of their last eleven games.
--Kansas City won ten of its last twelve games.

--11 of Seattle's last 13 games stayed under the total.

•Red Sox-Athletics - 4:05 PM
--De La Rosa is 0-2, 6.35 in two road starts this season.
--Chavez is 2-1, 4.00 in his last three starts.

--Red Sox lost nine of their last eleven road games.
--Oakland won nine of its last eleven home games.

--Under is 11-1-1 in last thirteen Boston games; eight of last ten Chavez starts went over.

•Astros-Rays - 4:10 PM
--Peacock is 2-0, 2.93 in his last five starts.
--Odorizzi is 0-4, 4.55 in his last six starts, 0-1, 2.13 in his last two.

--Astros lost five of their last seven games.
--Tampa Bay lost nine of its last thirteen home games.

--Five of last seven Peacock starts stayed under total.

•Tigers-Indians - 7:15 PM
--Verlander is 0-3, 9.64 in his last three starts.
--Bauer is 1-2, 5.02 in his last five starts.

--Tigers are 5-7 in last twelve games, but won last two.
--Cleveland won 11 of its last 13 home games.

--12 of last 17 Cleveland home games went over total.

•Rangers-Angels - 10:05 PM
--Martinez is 0-3, 10.80 in his last three starts.
--Weaver is 1-3, 6.17 in his last four starts.

--Texas lost four of its last five games.
--Angels are 12-3 in their last 15 home games.

--Over is 3-1-1 in last five Weaver starts.

Interleague
•Blue Jays-Reds - 4:10 PM
--Happ is 2-2, 5.25 in his last four starts.
--Leake is 1-2, 8.22 in his last three starts.

--Toronto are 14-5 in their last 19 road games.
--Reds won six of their last nine games.

--Seven of nine Happ starts stayed under total.

•Umpires Trends
-- Phil-StL-- Seven of last eight Vanover games went over.
-- NY-Mia-- Six of last nine Kulpa games stayed under.
-- Mil-Col-- Road team won last seven Hamari games (dogs 4-2 last six).
-- Pitt-Chi-- Over is 6-2-2 in last ten Tumpane games.
-- Atl-Wsh-- Nine of last eleven Fagan games stayed under.
-- SF-Az-- Five of last six Bucknor games stayed under.
-- LA-SD-- Eight of last eleven TBarrett games went over.

-- Blt-NY-- Home teams won six of last eight Hallion games.
-- Chi-Min-- Favorites won nine of last ten Segal games.
-- Sea-KC-- Seven of last ten Barry games stayed under.
-- Bos-A's-- Favorites won five of last six Wolcott games.
-- Hst-TB-- Four of last five Gonzalez games stayed under.
-- Det-Clev-- Favorites won eight of last nine Baker games.
-- Tex-LAA-- Underdogs won three of last four Carapazza games.

-- Tor-Cin-- Over is 9-3-1 in West games this season.

Diamond Trends - Saturday
•SEATTLE is 11-1 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in road games versus a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season.
The average score was SEATTLE 5.5, OPPONENT 3.2.

•PITTSBURGH is 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) in road games versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game this season.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.4, OPPONENT 3.1.

•TAMPA BAY is 0-13 (-14.8 Units) against the run line versus a mediocre bullpen whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 this season.
The average score was TAMPA BAY 2.7, OPPONENT 4.8.

•JUSTIN VERLANDER is 9-22 (-27.7 Units) against the money line versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was VERLANDER 4.1, OPPONENT 5.2.

•COLE HAMELS is 16-3 UNDER (+12.6 Units) versus poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HAMELS 2.6, OPPONENT 3.0.

•BRANDON MCCARTHY is 2-13 (-14.3 Units) against the run line versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MCCARTHY 2.9, OPPONENT 5.2.

Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (PHILADELPHIA) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a very good starting pitcher (ERA <=3.00) - National League, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 3 starts.
(46-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (83.6%, +32.1 units. Rating = 3*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -153.9
The average score in these games was: Team 4.5, Opponent 2.7 (Average run differential = +1.8)

The situation's record this season is: (5-2, +2.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (33-8, +20.6 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (70-24, +32.5 units).

•Play On - All underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-190 to -135) (CHI WHITE SOX) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 to 6.20 on the season (American League) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.400 to 1.500 on the season-AL.
(77-22 since 1997.) (77.8%, +43.7 units. Rating = 3*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (58-41)
The average run line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 1.5, money line price: -152
The average score in these games was: Team 5.3, Opponent 4.5 (Average run differential = +0.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 58 (58.6% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-2, +2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-3, +9.4 units).

•Play Under - Road teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (ATLANTA) - below average National League hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA <=3.33), with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.70 or better on the season (NL).
(65-30 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.4%, +31.4 units. Rating = 2*)

The average total posted in these games was: 7.4, Money Line=-113.3
The average score in these games was: Team 3, Opponent 3.6 (Total runs scored = 6.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 53 (57% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (14-10, +2.4 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (45-24, +17.9 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (100-68, +22.1 units).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baseball33
USA: MLB
St.Louis Cardinals – Philadelphia Phillies
St.Louis Cardinals -1
Odd: 1,86

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

San Francisco at Arizona

San Francisco Giants are slumpin', the nosedive has reached 6 games to give them a woeful 1-9 stretch the past ten on the diamond a span in which the club has platted just 3.6 runs/game while the pitching staff has given up a whopping 5.7 per/contest. Giants try to stop the bleeding handing the ball to Ryan Vogelsong (4-3, 3.94 ERA). The right-hander is 2-1 outside of AT&T Park this year but Giants have won five of the six road starts. Meanwhile, D-Backs plunking Giants 4-1 in the opener counter with Brandon McCarthy (1-9, 5.18 ERA). The hurler with one win in fifteen attempts (2-13 TSR) heads to the mound on a 4-18 skid the past twenty-seven starts with Snakes 5-22 over the span. The betting market is counting on McCarthy reversing the horrible trend as it has D-Backs $1.15 to $1.20 favorite. You bet Arizona at your own risk. D-Backs are 1-8 in McCarthy's nine starts at Chase Field, the club is 1-6 handing the ball to the hurler following a victory the previous night and 1-12 in his last 13 starts vs a team with a winning record.

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Saturday

Dodgers -115

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Kyle Hunter

4* Milwaukee -123

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

Cardinals -165

Indians -130

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StatFox Super Situations

MLB | HOUSTON at TAMPA BAY
Play Against - All teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TAMPA BAY) revenging a loss vs opponent as a home favorite of -150 or more, a bad team, winning 38% to 46% of their games on the season
131-79 since 1997. ( 62.4% | 50.8 units )
3-5 this year. ( 37.5% | -2.5 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | BOSTON at OAKLAND
OAKLAND is 63-26 (+35.5 Units) against the money line in Home games vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was: OAKLAND (4.6) , OPPONENT (3.4)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lawrence

Noon Marc's Match 27 World Cup Free Play!

Play On: Argentina to defeat Iran by more than two goals.

Note: Here is the opportunity for one of the World Cup favorites to assert itself. Argentina, picked by many to be playing in the championship game on July 13 in Rio de Janiero, have a chance to strut their creative stuff against the dour Iranians, fresh off the tournament's first draw, a boring 0-0 scoreline against Nigeria. Look for the Argentines to put the ball in the net several times today. They have the firepower and the creativity to win for the second time, making their final group stage match against Nigeria just a workout. We recommend wagering 1-unit on a three-goal or more romp for Argentina. Thank you and good luck as always.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTSWAGERS

FIFA World Cup

Bosnia/Herzegovina -110 over Nigeria

(Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)

June 21 -6:00 PM EST. Every four years new members are welcomed into the World Cup fraternity. This time around, Bosnia & Herzegovina is the latest nation to make its World Cup debut after a long and arduous road to join the world’s elite. After gaining independence from Yugoslavia in 1992, Bosnia wasn’t allowed to participate in the qualifiers for the 1994 World Cup in the USA due to the ongoing Bosnian War. Admittance into FIFA was finally granted in 1996 and years of hard slogging led to progress on the pitch with the Smajevi (Dragons) losing to Portugal in the qualification playoffs for both the 2010 World Cup and Euro 2012. But after a nearly perfect qualifying campaign (eight wins out of 10 games with only one loss) achieved on the strength of an awesome attack that produced 30 goals, Bosnia has arrived. With Manchester City forward Edin Dzeko (10 goals in the qualifiers) and Stuttgart’s Vedad Ibisevic leading the line and Roma playmaker Miralem Pjanic pulling the strings in central midfield, Bosnia is a difficult side for opponents to contain. The Bosnians have great goaltending, which was on display in their opener against powerhouse Argentina, a game Bosnia lost 2-1 but did not look a bit out of place in. They will now go for their first World Cup victory and this determined and talented squad figures to get it against the much weaker Nigerians.

Super Eagles they are not. Nigeria is more like a wounded sparrow. Aside from the misfortune of drawing a group featuring the aforementioned Argentinians, the reigning Africa championships are a team in major transition. Since taking the reins in 2011, Coach Stephen Keshi has made radical changes to the Nigerian setup with a number of proven veterans phased out, including Obafemi Martins and Yakubu Aiyegbeni. Keshi has also experimented with his roster, calling up as many as 60 players over the past 18 months in an attempt to find the right mix. The result is a serious lack of team cohesion, which has led to lingering questions as to whether Keshi knows what his best 11 is. Don’t be fooled by Nigeria’s unbeaten qualifying record. Runaway group winners with three wins and three draws, it’s surprising they didn’t win all six games considering their opponents – Kenya, Malawi and Namibia had an average FIFA ranking of 123rd. A playoff date with #95 Ethiopia hardly proved challenging either. The Nigerians played Iran, one of the biggest underdogs in this event, to an ugly 0-0 tie in their 2014 opener but things are about to get a whole lot more difficult here. This is a cheap price to pay on Bosnia and we’re on it.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZWINNERS

4 STAR SELECTION

Game: Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals

(910) Washington Nationals -$130

(Risking $520 to win $400) (Action)


2 STAR SELECTION

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins

(917) Chicago White Sox +$110

(Risking $200 to win $220) (Action)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GAMBLING GOD

Team A: Iran
Team B: Argentina
League: Soccer World Cup

Pick: Over 3 goals
Risk:$112 to win $100

Time: 9:00 AM PT

[Can'tPickAWinner]

River City Sharps

3 UNITS - MILWAUKEE BREWERS ML

While we are never huge fans of hopping on a heavy road favorite, we're going to try and beat the system here this afternoon as Wily Peralta (7-5, 2.98) and the Milwaukee Brewers face off again with the Colorado Rockies and Christian Friedrich, making his first season start for the Rockie after being called up from Triple-A. The Brewers are probably not the team you would want to face for a team that is struggling with their starting pitching as they scored 13 runs in the series opener Friday night. Friedrich wasn't exactly tearing it up at Triple-A either, posting a 1-8 record with a 7.89 ERA in Colorado Springs. Peralta has been really solid for the Brewers, especially on the road, where he is 4-2 with a 2.76 ERA. The Brewers are 4-0 in Peralta's last four road starts against teams with a losing record and this season, the Rockies are 3-13 off a loss. We think the Over 11 might also be worth a look as the Brewers may very well score that many on their own, but we are pulling the lever on a solid 3 unit play today backing the road favorite.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Advanced sports investments

perry’s selections

fifa world cup

1x- iran/argentina – under 3.5 -160 (12pm)

1x- germany/ghana – under 3.5 -160 (3pm)

1x- bosnia & herzegovina -120 nigeria (6pm)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BOB BALFE

SELECTION
MILWAUKEE BREWERS -130

(Peralta/Friedrich)
The Rockies will be pitching Friedrich who has not pitched for a few years and they have a bad bullpen. This Milwaukee is one of a few quality teams in the majors this year. Take the Brewers