6-24-14

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MrParlayKing

White Sox ML @ +125
Giants ML @ -155
Atheletics/Mets OVER 7 @ +105

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MLB

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto and New York get ready to duel again after the Jays downed Yankees 8-3 last night. Having veteran pitcher Mark Buehrle (10-4, 2.32 ERA) tossing would normally give John Gibbons' troops a boost of confidence. The Jays have had a run of success in their home surroundings with the left-hander winning 16-of-23 games since his arrival. Jays are also 10-2 handing the ball to the southpaw as a home favorite with the light's on. However, these are the New York Yankees and the hurler will be up against the club that has given him the most trouble in his 15-year career. He is 1-11 in 17 starts against New York with his teams 1-16 over the span including 0-5 wearing a Blue Jay uniform. Buehrle trades pitches with David Phelps (3-4, 4.13 ERA). The right-hander heads to the hill on a 2 game winning streak including a 7 inning 6 hit 2 run victory in his last start vs Toronto which brought his record to 2-0 vs Toronto with a 3-1 team start record over four career starts. Tough assignment for Blue Birds and Buehrle but if there was ever a spot for a rare victory it's here. Yankees are just 2-7 in unfriendly territory with Phelps, 1-4 on the road off a loss with the hurler and 2-6 as an underdog in road night games with the righty.

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Totals 4 You MLB Service Selections for Tuesday, June 24th
2014 Inter-League Baseball Scoreboard-Scorcher of the Year!!!!!
Cleveland/Arizona over 8 1/2

You Win or we'll email you Wednesday's Report Free of Charge!!!

MLB Best Bets
Washington/Milwaukee under 8
New York/Toronto under 9
Detroit/Texas over 9 1/2
Boston/Seattle over 7 1/2

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Steven Nover

Colorado

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Bryan Leonard

Arizona

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2Halves2Win Comp:


1* GAME - LAD @ KC: Royals (+140)

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Goodfella

Tuesday Night MLB Team Total

TEXAS RANGERS OVER 4 RUNS (@BOL)

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SPORTSWAGERS

MLB

Detroit @ TEXAS

Detroit -1 +118 over TEXAS

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.36)

When these two get together it’s one blowout after another. In fact, over the past 9 meetings, the winning side has won by five runs or more eight times and has covered the 1½-run-line all nine times. This time around the Tigers come in swinging some hot bats while the Rangers are cold with five straight losses. Texas will now face a pitcher they don’t hit well in Drew Smyly. Although it’s a small sample size, current Rangers have just five combined hits in 33 career AB’s (.152) against Smyly. Smyly has surrendered two earned runs or less in three straight starts and he’s pitching with more confidence than he has all season right now. That’s half the battle. Everything in Smyly’s profile, from groundball rate, to strikeouts to his swing and miss rate to walks issued are trending the right way.

Meanwhile Colby Lewis may be the least appealing starter in baseball. A quality start has long been considered a start in which the pitcher goes six innings or more and allows three runs or less. That model is simplistic and takes very few factors into consideration. Our model that says for a quality start, the pitcher must deal the following:

1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he does not get a pure quality start; he gets nothing no matter what other stats he produces.

2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.

3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.

4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.

5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.

Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the pure quality start scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.

If a pitcher accomplishes two of the last four criteria and goes at least six innings, he gets a pure quality start otherwise he does not.

We mention this again because Colby Lewis has zero pure quality starts in 12 attempts this year. Over his last 27 innings, Lewis has walked 16 batters and struck out 16. Overall he has a 1.86 WHIP, a 5.97 ERA, an xERA of 6.46 over his last seven starts and a brutally awful groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 27%/24%/49 over that same seven-game stretch. Lewis has no confidence, he's not throwing strikes and he's not the right guy to propel the Rangers into snapping out of their current funk against a Tigers team that has won four in a row and scored 23 times over that span.


Minnesota @ L.A. ANGELS

Minnesota +165 over L.A. ANGELS

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.30)

The Angels are tough, especially at home where they have won 23 of 37 games but the value here on the Twins is too great to pass up with Kyle Gibson going against C.J. Wilson. Wilson's “A” consistency may have left him a bit undervalued entering 2014, because despite some nice results since his breakout in 2011, he lacked significant upside due to age (33) and control issues. So far in 2014, he's making a case to capture our attention once again. Wilson has 93 K’s in 100 innings to go along with an elite 54% groundball rate. His 3.34 ERA is right in line with his xERA of 3.31. The lingering issure with Wilson is a lack of control and that’s a big problem when laying lumber like this. Wilson has 40 walks on the year and 15 over his last 31 innings. The result is a pitcher that throws too many pitches per batter and is often forced out of the game early because of a high pitch count. When taking back a tag, we could live with that because his other skills are great and he can beat anyone at any time. However, as a significant favorite, the risk on Wilson is greater than the reward and that applies here.

By contrast, Kyle Gibson has walked five batters over his last five starts covering 33 frames. Gibson’s 56% groundball rate is the best in the majors among starters with 10 or more starts. Gibson is flashing the upside that made him a premium prospect a few years ago. Gibson has thrown a dominant start in four of his last five starts and has not allowed an earned run in any of his last three. Over his last five starts, he is 2-1 with a 1.09 ERA, a ridiculous 66% groundball rate and a very solid 12% swinging strike rate. Gibson has been aided by a fortunate strand rate over the last month and there is some regression coming because few pitchers can maintain the run that Gibson is on right now. However, taking back a tag like the one offered here with Gibson and a Twins’ club that has won four straight overall and that always gives the Angels fits, is once again far too much value to ignore.


Boston @ SEATTLE

SEATTLE +102 over Boston

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.04)

The Red Sox are 4-6 over their last 10 games but three of those wins came against the Twins at Fenway, where Boston scored five times in the three games and somehow swept the three games. Their other win over that span occurred on Sunday at Oakland, 7-6, as they managed to salvage one game in the four-game set. Boston has scored two runs or less in seven of 10 and three runs or less in nine of 10. The Red Sox are actually fortunate that they’re not on a run of 10 consecutive losses and now they’re favored in Seattle with Jake Peavy going? While Peavy posted a 2.87 ERA in four April starts, he scuffled in May, with a 6.59 ERA in five starts and June hasn’t been much better. Among his problems is that he's walking a lot more batters than usual, leading to the worst command in his 13-year career. He’s also allowed 14 bombs in 93.2 frames. Since Peavy's hit % and strand % are in the normal range, there aren’t many signs that his ERA will improve any time soon. He no longer has the oomph to blow hitters away. While he averaged 94 mph average fastball in his salad days, he’s been consistently at 90 mph for the past four years and is down to 89.5 MPH this year. That’s reflected in his low swinging strike rate of 6% since May 1. The drop in skills tells the story of a pitcher who is sporting the highest home run and walk rates of his career and he is not challenging hitters. In other words, Peavy has staked out a place firmly on the edge of both the strike zone and effectiveness in general and it is hard to put too much faith in him while he’s sitting there.

Erasmo Ramirez is a pooch here because he’s 1-4 with an ERA of 4.62 after 10 starts. That makes Ramirez one of the best “buy-low” targets heading into July. There is so much to like about this guy and we’ll start with his history. Ramirez went 5-3 with a 4.98 ERA in 72 innings for the Mariners last year. However, a spring triceps issue lingered all season, ending a possible breakout season before it could begin. Ramirez showed in five August starts what could've been (2.84 xERA - 1.11 WHIP). In 2012, Ramirez pitched 59 innings after beginning the year in the M’s pen and spending a good portion of the year in the minors. A late call-up saw him and post a 2.44 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in six starts after the September call-up. Ramirez still owns those 2012 skills, only this time around they’re better and he also has more experience. Ramirez has 40 K’s in 49 frames but his elite swing and miss rate of 12% suggests even more K’s per nine are coming. Over his last four appearances, Ramirez has posted an ERA of 2.41 and he has not allowed a single run in his last 15.2 innings. With good health, there's plenty of profit in Ramirez’s young and talented arm the rest of the way. We’ll put that to the test here against one of the most beatable pitcher/team (Boston/Peavy) combos in the league.

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Art Aronson

Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Free Play: Milwaukee Brewers -114

The Brewers were shut out last night by the Nationals, but look for them to get the job down in Game 2 of this home series. The Nationals send Jordan Zimmerman (5-4, 2.95 ERA) to the hill; Zimmerman has lost two straight decisions. The Brewers counter with ace Yovani Gallardo (5-4, 3.34 ERA); Gallardo has been hot of late, pitching three straight games where he has lasted at least seven innings and given up one run or less, Milwaukee winning each of those contests. Gallardo comes in looking for revenge on the Nationals as the last time he faced Washington he was lit up for eight runs on nine hits in just three innings of work: “I’ve been feeling good," Gallardo said after this last start. "I've been throwing the ball pretty well and just keeping the ball down and locating it. It all starts with that." The Brewers are 20-16 at home this season, while Washington has been subpar on the road with a 17-18 record. Milwaukee had won four straight before getting held to just three hits yesterday. Keep in mind that the Brew Crew is a strong 30-19 in night games. Consider taking the home team at a very fair price.

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Harry Bondi

Free Play Detroit Tigers -110 over Texas Rangers

As long as the Rangers keep sending Colby Lewis to the mound, we'll keep betting against him. The right-hander started strong, but has been dismal in his last three starts (7.63 ERA) and at home he has been particularly bad this season, going 1-3 with a 7.42 ERA while allowing 49 hits in 25 innings. That doesn't bode well here against a Tigers offense that averages nearly five runs a game on the road. Detroit starter Drew Smyly has a misleading 1-2 record in his last three starts as he has posted a 1.89 ERA. The Tigers give him plenty of run support tonight. Lay the short number.

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Greg Shaker

Tuesday Twitter Play #1: 1st 5 Innings Braves/Astros OVER 4.5 -115

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Topshelfpicks

Raider

St Louis/Colorado Under 10

Jorge De La Rosa (6-6, 4.75 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and .238 BAA) goes for the Rockies tonight against Shelby Miller (7-6, 3.56 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, .237 BAA) and both pitchers have similar numbers, except for the ERA which suggests to me that Miller has successfully pitched out of a lot of jams this year. We all know that St Louis struggles against lefties so that gives De La Rosa a leg up already. But looking at his number in Coors Field, this is very impressive. Since 2011, he is 16-3 in Coors Field with a 3.22 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and .261 BAA. Putting up those kind of pitching numbers consistently in Coors Field is impressive. In his only appearance against St Louis over the past 3+ seasons, he only pitched once, allowing 2 hits and 0 runs in 7 innings. I look for De La Rosa to keep the Cards in check tonight. On the other side, I think Shelby Miller and hold the Rockies in check too. Problem with Miller is do not know what you might get. Miller has not pitched in Coors Field before, but in his one previous start against the Rockies, he threw a complete game, 1-hit shutout. I certainly do not expect him to match that effort, but for whatever reason, Miller will throw a gem when you least expect it. Tonight could be one of those nights. Further, Miller has been quite effective overall on the road this season, with a 4-2 record, 3.04 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and .214 BAA. With both pitchers putting up solid efforts, I do not expect that total of 10 to get threatened tonight. Play the Under.


Leans

Kansas City ML (+142) vs LA Dodgers

Pittsburgh ML (+125) at Tampa Bay

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Topshelfpicks

Carson K

2* Nationals

Yes , I know Gallardo pitched 3 very good games in a row, but that ends tonight. LaRoche & Worth will put an end to it. The #3 & #4 hitters are hitting a combined .325 vs. Gallardo. Both guys are on fire right now with their bats. The last 2 games LaRoche is 4-7 & Worth is 4-8. Now they face a guy they already hit well, no reason not to expect a big game from the both of them.

The Nat's will send out Zimmerman. His last 2 road starts, 17in 5h, 1r, 1bb & 17Ks. For as well as he's been pitching he lost his last 2 starts (0-3 & 0-1). His teammates know they let him down in those 2 games. Prior to those 2 starts, his last 8 he received plenty of run support, averaging 6 runs a game. The offense steps it up today for their boy Jordan.

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Bestbetpick

Josh Daniels

1* Royals

For Tuesday we are looking at the Dodgers VS the Royals; Kershaw VS Duffy. I know I am going against the grain on this one but I see the Royals with value on this one. One Duffy in June is one of the best pitchers in baseball with a 1.75 ERA. Plus go into account that only 3 hitters have seen him before with only 10 AB. Hitters who have never seen Duffy before are a terrible .206/.231/.321 off him. His Stuff is really good and with free swingers that will play into his game. With Kershaw while he is grate, that isn't in question, just the Royals have beat up the last 3 Cy Young awards winners they have faced (Greinke, Verlander, Sheirzer). They scored an average of 5.5 runs off them, while I don't see them putting up those numbers they are known to "play up" to their competition. I see a low scoring game here with KC 3 LA 1.

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VEGAS RUNNER

RLcrew Move

1953) OVER 4 (+100) – CIN/CHC

NFAC Move “Premium”

951) OVER 7.5 (-125) and OVER 8 (-110) – MIA/PHI