6-25-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Argentina aims to clinch Group F Wednesday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox


2014 WORLD CUP SOCCER

NIGERIA vs. ARGENTINA

Kickoff: Wednesday, 12:00 p.m. EDT
Estadio Beira-Rio – Porto Alegre, Brazil

Line:
Argentina -196, Nigeria +625, Tie +275
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over -114, Under -114)

Group F play of the World Cup wraps up on Wednesday when the top two teams in the group, Argentina and Nigeria both look to claim the top spot.

Nigeria has yet to allow a goal in the World Cup, drawing 0-0 with Iran before prevailing 1-0 over Bosnia-Herzegovina. If the heavy underdog can defeat Argentina in this matchup, it will win the group, but if Iran beats Bosnia-Herzegovina and surpasses a losing Nigeria team in goal differential, Nigeria will be eliminated. If both Iran and Nigeria finish tied in points, goal differential and total goals, the second-place team would be determined by drawing lots, something this tournament has never had to resort to. Argentina already knows they are moving on, taking out Bosnia-Herzegovina 2-1 before a narrow 1-0 victory over Iran. Argentina needs only a draw to win the group, and will finish second with a loss to Nigeria.

The Super Eagles played a very even game with Bosnia-Herzegovina, holding the advantage in shots by a 20-18 margin, including 13-10 in shots on goal. Nigeria held the ball for 46% of the time, while corner kicks were even at 4-4. Goalkeeper Vincent Enyeama recorded seven saves in the shutout victory, after needing to save only three shots in the scoreless draw with Iran. Nigeria also trimmed its fouls from 16 versus Iran to nine against Bosnia-Herzegovina, with John Obi Mikel becoming the club's lone player with a yellow card at the 81st minute. Striker Peter Odemwingie was the team's lone goal-scorer 29 minutes in, but the Super Eagles know that star forward Emmanuel Emenike, who netted 15 goals in 32 games at the club level this season, will have to be heard from to earn a point in this match.

Argentina will be playing a virtual home match, as this venue is close to their country's border and it will be packed with Maracana faithful. Lionel Messi has carried his club this tournament with two goals, while the team's other tally came on a fortunate own goal by Bosnia-Herzegovina. Messi has already surpassed his total of one goal in his first two World Cup tournament appearances. Although Argentina has not dominated as expected, they did possess the ball for 55% against Bosnia-Herzegovina and a whopping 70% versus Iran. The Maracana fired 19 shots against Iran, but only nine were on net. However, this was a huge improvement from its 11 shots (5 on goal) in their tournament opener. Argentina also produced 10 corner-kick chances versus Iran, compared to only two against Bosnia-Herzegovina. The Maracana have played a very clean tournament as well, with zero offsides calls and only 18 total fouls. Their lone yellow card was issued to defender Marcos Rojo in the opening match, so they will want to make sure nobody picks up a card in this match for a team that has legitimate aspirations of winning this entire tournament.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Iran tries to advance with big win on Wednesday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox


2014 WORLD CUP SOCCER

BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA vs. IRAN

Kickoff: Wednesday, 12:00 p.m. EDT
Arena Fonte Nova – Salvador, Brazil

Line:
Bosnia-Herzegovina +120, Iran +220, Tie +240
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over +105, Under -135)

Underdog Iran needs a big win over Bosnia-Herzegovina and some help on Wednesday to move onto the Round of 16.

Iran has played a mostly defensive World Cup, opening their tournament with a 0-0 tie with Nigeria before losing 1-0 to Argentina on an extra-time goal by superstar Lionel Messi. With only one point and a minus-1 goal differential, Iran has to win to stay alive and then hope Nigeria loses to Argentina by more than one goal. If Iran and Nigeria wind up being tied in points and goal differential, the team moving on to the next round would be determined by drawing lots, which is something the World Cup has never had to do to break a tie between two teams. Bosnia-Herzegovina has lost both of its matches in its first-ever World Cup to eliminate themselves, falling 2-1 to Argentina and 1-0 to Nigeria. But they want to leave the tournament on a high note, and are favored to knock off Iran and send them home too.

Bosnia-Herzegovina has had plenty of chances in the World Cup, with 18 total shots (10 on goal) versus Nigeria to give them 34 shots (21 on goal) for the tournament. They also held a 54% possession edge and committed only seven fouls in the heart-breaking defeat to Nigeria, which got its lone tally in the 29th minute. Bosnia-Herzegovina defender Haris Medunjanin picked up a yellow card in the sixth minute of that match, but that was the team's only card in that defeat. Forward Edin Dzeko has missed plenty of scoring chances during this tournament, but his disallowed goal against Nigeria that was incorrectly ruled offsides could have been a huge difference maker for his team, and would've given them a chance at advancing with a victory in Wednesday's match. Dzeko may not play in the tournament finale for Bosnia-Herzegovina, as coach Safet Susic is expected to utilize his reserves more to give the team a spark.

Iran has been thoroughly dominated in time of possession in both World Cup matches, holding the ball for 37% of the time versus Nigeria and only 30% of the time versus Argentina. They have taken just 15 shots in the two matches combined, and only seven of those attempts have been on goal. With a win being the only desirable result on Wednesday, look for Iran to really set the tone on offense and abandon it's strictly defensive game plan. Carlos Queiroz knows this could be his last match as the team's coach, as he is stepping down after the tournament because the Iranian government is not giving him proper financial backing. Iran has been whistled for only two offsides all tournament, but have committed 32 fouls, including three yellow cards by midfielders Andranik Timotian, Javad Nekonam and Masoud Shojaei. Winning the match is obviously Iran's top priority, but it cannot afford to have any of these three players pick up that second yellow card and be disqualified for their potential Round of 16 match.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

France tries to stay unbeaten Wednesday vs. Ecuador
By: Brian Graham - StatFox


2014 WORLD CUP SOCCER

ECUADOR vs. FRANCE

Kickoff: Wednesday, 4:00 p.m. EDT
Estadio Do Maracana – Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Line:
France -140, Ecuador +385, Tie +270
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over -120, Under -109)

France looks to continue its impressive World Cup run when it wraps up Group E play Wednesday versus an Ecuador team with hopes of advancing to the knockout stage.

France had little problem with Honduras to begin their World Cup quest, winning easily by a 3-0 score, and followed that up with a 5-2 pummeling of Switzerland. Ecuador began its World Cup with a 2-1 loss to Switzerland, but came back with a 2-1 victory over Honduras to give them three points that ties the country with Switzerland for second place in Group E. These teams last met in a friendly in 2008 that resulted in a 2-0 win for France.

Ecuador showed great courage coming back from a 1-0 deficit to beat Honduras with a pair of Enner Valencia goals, but they were still badly outshot 16-8, including 9-5 on goal. Ecuador did have a slight edge in possession at 51% to 49% and took 12 corner kicks compared to four corners for Honduras. But some key players picked up yellow cards, including goal-scoring hero Enner Valencia, as well as speedy midfielders Jefferson Montero and Antonio Valencia. Ecuador has committed 32 fouls in the World Cup, while their opponents have committed just 24 against them.

France star Karim Benzema has three of his team's eight goals so far in the World Cup, with one goal apiece for Olivier Giroud, Moussa Sissoko, Blaise Matuidi and Mathieu Valbuena. Although France throttled Switzerland, they did allow two goals after the 80th minute of that game and got out-possessed 57% to 43%. France did fire 22 shots though, with 16 of those shots on goal. That gives the club 42 shots for the tournament, with 26 of those on net. But Les Blues also has 29 fouls and four yellow cards during their two wins. And a silly yellow card in the 88th minute of a 5-2 match by Yohan Cabaye will keep him off the field for Wednesday's contest.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Switzerland looks to roll past Honduras Wednesday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox


2014 WORLD CUP SOCCER

HONDURAS vs. SWITZERLAND

Kickoff: Wednesday, 4:00 p.m. EDT
Arena Amazonia – Manaus, Brazil

Line:
Switzerland -250, Honduras +600, Tie +333
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over -144, Under +115)

Switzerland looks to move forward to the knockout stage of the World Cup when it takes on winless Honduras on Wednesday in the Brazilian rainforest in Manaus.

The Swiss began the tournament with a narrow 2-1 victory over Ecuador in extra time, but was steamrolled 5-2 by France in its follow-up game. Honduras also got pounded 3-0 by Les Blues, but played much better in a 2-1 defeat to Ecuador, with their tally ending a 32-year, goal-less drought in World Cup play. With France virtually assured to move on to the Round of 16 with six points and a +6 goal differential, Switzerland needs at least a draw plus an Ecuador loss to France to keep playing in the 2014 World Cup. This match takes place exactly four years to the day these teams last met in the World Cup when the clubs played to a 0-0 tie that eliminated both teams from the tournament.

Honduras will once again be a huge underdog, but key midfielder Wilson Palacios will be able return after picking up two yellow cards in the first half versus France, which kept him out of the Ecuador match. Honduras actually got on the board first in the 31st minute of that game when Carlo Costly scored the country's first World Cup goal since 1982, ending a drought of five straight goal-less games. Even though Enner Valencia tallied at both the 34-minute mark, and 65 minutes in for the game-winner, Honduras still held the edge in many statistics. They outshot Ecuador 16-8 in total shots, including 9-5 in shots on goal. Ball possession was nearly even though (49% Honduras, 51% Ecuador), but Honduras had three times fewer corner kicks (four) than Ecuador did (12). Honduras also picked up a couple of yellow cards in the first half with Victor Bernardez and Jerry Bengtson. Honduras continues to be led on defense by Maynor Figueroa, who played an outstanding match four years ago in the scoreless draw with Switzerland. But Honduras needs to win by a wide margin to have any shot of moving to the next round, so expect them to attack much more than usual.

Switzerland has to be extremely concerned with their defense, especially with the loss of Steve von Bergen for the rest of the tournament after he fractured his cheekbone. He is arguably their best defensive player. His substitute Philippe Senderos had a brutal showing versus France, and was a big reason why Les Blues netted five goals. Despite that result, Switzerland could pack it in for a low-scoring tie on Wednesday and hope France rolls past Ecuador. The Swiss really need Xherdan Shaqiri to provide some offense for this club, which does have a little momentum with goals in the 81st minute (Blerim Dzemaili) and 87th minute (Granit Xhaka) against France. They wound up with a ton of shots (17), but put only eight of those on goal. In their Cup opener, they attempted 18 shots with 12 of those on target. But the Swiss did hold the edge in possession over France (57% to 43%) and had more corners (5-3), but less fouls (12-16) and no cards. Switzerland are the more experienced and quicker team in this matchup, and should be confident they can bounce back from the debacle versus France.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Wednesday, June 25


Dodgers' SS Hanley Ramirez, probable Wednesday

Ramirez is dealing with shoulder irritation and did not play on Tuesday however he is expected to be in the lineup on Wednesday against the Royals.


Blue Jays' RF Jose Bautista, questionable Wednesday

Bautista has a Grade 1 hamstring strain and has missed the last two games. He is questionable to return on Wednesday against the Yankees.


Plenty of runs last night, but did that mean overs?

There were plenty of runs scored on the diamond in Tuesday's Major League action, with teams crossing the plate a staggering 150 times, making it a good night if you betting over game totals.

Teams went 11-4 over/under in 15 games last night, a success rate of neatly 74 percent. Much better than the season average for overs, which is just over 50 percent.


What trend came through big time Tuesday night?

Another night of Major League Baseball action and another night of success for underdogs against the runline.

Underdogs went an impressive 11-4 against the runline Tuesday night, hitting at a mark of almost 74 percent. Both home and road dogs did well, going 5-2 and 6-2 respectively.

Dogs have been one of the most solid bets in baseball all year, coming in at almost a 62 percent success rate for the season.


Price trade speculation continues

David Price admits he is not immune to the speculation. It's beginning to affect his mood, but not his preparations.

The left-hander has been the source of increasing trade speculation as the Tampa Bay Rays' season sinks into morass and each day brings the 28-year-old closer to arbitration eligibility this offseason and free agency after 2015. The media hum grew louder on Monday as ESPN's Buster Olney proclaimed the "climate" primed for the club to deal the 2012 American League Cy Young Award-winner "right now."

Price, who is 5-7 with a 3.81 ERA this season, is scheduled to start on Wednesday in the conclusion of a three-game set against Pittsburgh and has worked in front of a bank of opposing scouts in recent outings. He's impressed, striking out at least 10 in four consecutive starts, and he leads the majors with 133 strikeouts while walking just 13.

Price is set to earn $14 million this season and would expect a huge increase through arbitration next season. He deflected a question about whether Wednesday could be his last start at Tropicana Field, saying he thought he would have been traded in the offseason. But he admitted to thinking about things.

"That's why I've been in a bad mood the last week and a half," he said.


Pirates LF Marte could miss time after collision at second base

Pittsburgh left fielder Starling Marte underwent a CT scan on Tuesday night after complaining of "concussion-like symptoms" following a second-base

collision at Tropicana Field.

Results were not immediately available and it is unknown how much time the 25-year-old could miss. Stringent Major League Baseball concussion protocols make a seven-day

disabled list stint available and dictate that a player cannot participate in baseball activities until symptom-free for three days.

Marte's helmeted head struck the knee of Rays second baseman Sean Rodriguez violently as he was tagged out trying to steal second base in the fifth inning. Marte's head appeared to bow backward slightly and he lay over top of second base for several seconds, though never appeared to lose consciousness. Marte seemed unsteady on his feet after being attended to by manager Clint Hurdle and eventually walked off the field with assistance.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations – FoxSheets

MLB | ST LOUIS at COLORADO
Play Against – Any team (COLORADO) with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities, with a team batting average of .280 or better on the season (NL)
94-61 over the last 5 seasons. ( 60.6% | 41.6 units )
33-24 this year. ( 57.9% | 6.8 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends – FoxSheets

MLB | MINNESOTA at LA ANGELS
MINNESOTA is 54-43 (+28.5 Units) against the money line after batting .240 or worse over a 10 game span over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: MINNESOTA (4.3) , OPPONENT (4.4)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations – FoxSheets

WNBA | CHICAGO at CONNECTICUT
Play Under – Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 off 2 consecutive wins against division rivals, playing with 3 or more days rest
54-23 since 1997. ( 70.1% | 28.7 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 2.0 units )

WNBA | TULSA at INDIANA
Play Against – Home teams vs. the money line (INDIANA) after allowing 75 points or more in 3 straight games against opponent after scoring 90 points or more
26-10 over the last 5 seasons. ( 72.2% | 0.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )

WNBA | CHICAGO at CONNECTICUT
Play Against – Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (CONNECTICUT) hot team – having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, well rested team – playing 3 or less games in 10 days
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

National League

Nationals-Brewers
Strasburg is 0-1, 4.97 in his last two starts.
Estrada is 1-2, 8.74 in his last four starts.

Washington won its last four games.
Brewers won six of their last nine games.

Four of last five Strasburg starts went over total.

Cardinals-Rockies
Gonzales is making first MLB start; he was 3-2, 2.33 in seven starts in the AA Texas League; his dad coaches in the Rockies' minor league system.
28-year old rookie Flande makes MLB debut here; he is 2-9, 4.42 in 13 starts at AAA this season.

Cardinals won 11 of their last 16 games.
Colorado lost seven of its last eight games.

Over is 10-2-2 in last 14 Colorado games; under is 6-1-1 in Cards' last eight.

Padres-Giants
Kennedy is 0-2, 6.75 in his last three starts.
Lincecum is 1-2, 6.85 in his last four starts.

San Diego lost eight of its last eleven road games, but won last two.
Giants lost 11 of their last 14 games overall.

Nine of last eleven San Diego games stayed under.

Reds-Cubs
Latos is 0-0, 3.86 in his first two starts this year.
Jackson is 1-4, 8.40 in his last six starts.

Cincinnati won nine of its last thirteen games.
Cubs lost four of their last six home games.

Five of last six Jackson starts went over the total.

Marlins-Phillies
Marlins won last six Alvarez starts (2-0, 0.91).
Burnett is 2-1, 2.22 in his last three starts.

Marlins lost five of their last seven games.
Phillies lost three of their last four games.

Five of last seven Miami games stayed under total.


American League

White Sox-Orioles
Noesi is 1-1, 7.16 in his last three starts.
Orioles were outscored 50-7 in losing all seven of Jimenez' home starts.

White Sox lost eight of their last nine road games.
Baltimore is 9-6 in its last fifteen home games.

Eight of last nine Baltimore home games stayed under.

Bronx-Blue Jays
Kuroda is 0-2, 4.08 in his last three starts.
Hutchison is 1-2, 5.65 in his last three starts.

Bronx lost last four games, outscored 29-10.
Blue Jays won four of their last five home games.

Last four Kuroda starts stayed under the total.

Tigers-Rangers
Sanchez is 2-0, 2.05 in his last four starts.
Saunders is 0-2, 6.75 in his last three starts.

Detroit won four of its last five games.
Rangers lost their last six games.

Six of last seven Detroit road games went over total.

Twins-Angels
Pino allowed two runs in seven IP (94 PT) in his first MLB start.
Richards is 3-0, 0.67 in his last four starts.

Minnesota won four of last five games, but lost six in row on road.
Angels won 13 of their last 15 home games.

Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Angel home games.

Red Sox-Mariners
Buchholz was 0-2, 10.00 in his last four starts before the DL; his last start was May 26.
Iwakuma is 2-1, 2.93 in his last four starts.

Red Sox lost 12 of their last 15 road games.
Seattle won eight of its last ten games.

Seven of last nine Iwakuma starts stayed under the total.

Interleague games

Pirates-Rays
Morton is 3-1, 3.96 in his last four starts.
Price is 1-3, 3.77 in his last four starts.

Pirates won ten of their last fourteen road games.
Tampa Bay is 6-11 in its last seventeen home games.

Last four Morton starts went over; four of last five Price starts stayed under.

A's-Mets
Mills allowed three runs in four IP (94 PT) in his first '14 start.
Wheeler is 0-3, 3.98 in five home starts.

Oakland won five of its last seven games.
Mets won five of their last six games.

Five of last six Wheeler starts stayed under the total.

Braves-Astros
Wood is 0-4, 3.81 in his last four starts, last of which was May 4.
McHugh is 0-2, 5.28 in his last three starts.

Atlanta lost five of its last eight games.
Astros lost seven of their last eight games.

Three of McHugh's last four home starts went over.

Dodgers-Royals
Haren is 2-0, 4.15 in his last three starts.
Shields is 2-0, 4.26 in his last three starts; Royals are 8-1 in his last nine.

Dodgers won eight of their last eleven games.
Kansas City lost five of its last six games, scoring 10 runs.

Nine of last eleven Shields starts went over the total.

Indians-Arizona
Kluber is 0-1, 2.92 in his last two starts.
Anderson is 0-1, 4.09 in his last two starts.

Cleveland lost five of its last six games.
Arizona lost nine of its last thirteen games.

Seven of last nine Kluber starts went over the total.


Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Strasburg 5-16; Estrada 5-15
-- Gonzales 0-0; Flande 0-0
-- Kennedy 5-16; Lincecum 6-15
-- Latos 0-2; Jackson 6-15
-- Alvarez 4-15 (0 of last 6); Burnett 5-16

-- Noesi 5-15; Jimenez 5-15
-- Kuroda 5-15 (0 of last 5); Hutchison 3-15
-- Sanchez 4-12; Saunders 1-6
-- Pino 0-1; Richards 3-15
-- Buchholz 4-10; Iwakuma 1-10


-- Morton 2-15; Price 7-16 (5 of last 8)
-- Mills 0-1; Wheeler 5-15
-- Wood 4-7; McHugh 1-11
-- Haren 7-15 (7 of last 10); Shields 4-16 (3 of last 5)
-- Kluber 4-16; Anderson 0-8

Umpires
-- Wsh-Mil-- Favorites won ten of last eleven Segal games.
-- StL-Col-- Eight of last twelve TBarrett games went over.
-- SD-SF-- Road team won last eight Hamari games; last four went over.
-- Cin-Chi-- Five of last seven Bucknor games stayed under.
-- Mia-Phil-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Wolf games.

-- Chi-Balt-- Over is 6-0-1 in last seven Emmel games.
-- NY-Tor-- Eight of last eleven Barry games stayed under.
-- Det-Tex-- Over is 9-4 in last thirteen Tichenor games.
-- Minn-LA-- Last three Wolcott games stayed under.
-- Bos-Sea-- Home team won seven of last eight Reyburn games.

-- Pitt-TB-- Eight of last ten Barksdale games went over.
-- A's-NY-- Five of last seven West games went over.
-- Atl-Hst-- Underdogs won 10 of last 13 Davidson games.
-- LA-KC-- Road team won six of last seven Knight games.
-- Cle-Az-- Since 2011, under is 49-41 in Fairchild games; this is just his second game behind plate this season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies

The matchup between Philadelphia and Miami at Citizens Bank Park Wednesday night looks to be a pitcher's duel. For Philadelphia, the starter is A.J. Burnett off a 9 inning 1 run gem in a victory over Cardinals moving the right-handers record to 5-6 on the year with a 3.89 ERA and a 2-1 record the past three with a solid 2.22 ERA. On the other side, Henderson Alvarez carries a 4-3 record, 2.39 ERA to the hill and is undefeated in seven, a stretch that has seen the hurler give up 2 or less runs in six of the seven with Marlins 7-0 over the span. Marlin's along with it's steady member of the starting rotation seem like the best choice. But, digging deeper to get a better take on the pitching matchup has us leaning Philadelphia. The Phillies have thrived after Burnett tosses a quality starts surrendering =< 2 runs posting a 3-1 record. Phillies are 7-3 under the light's with Burnett and 2-0 vs Miami since his arrival. The clincher, Marlins' struggle in Philadelphia (4-11) and take to the field 1-5 as a road underdog following a Quality Start by Alvarez allowing =<2 runs, 1-3 on the road in game-three w/Alvarez, 2-7 as a road underdog w/Alvarez following a team loss the previous night.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball

1000* Play Los Angeles Angels -180 over Minnesota (MLB TOP PLAY)

Los Angeles has won 24 of the last 32 games when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs and they have won 53 of the last 92 games vs. AL Central Division Opponents.Los Angeles has won 79 of the last 141 games after having won four or five of the last six games and they have won 70 of the last 117 games when playing as a favorite of -150 or higher.

================================================== ===



50* Play Miami +110 over Philadelphia (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play New York Yankees +110 over Toronto (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tigers seek 6th straight win Wednesday
By: Freddy Wander - StatFox


DETROIT TIGERS (41-32) at TEXAS RANGERS (35-41)

First pitch: Wednesday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Detroit -135, Texas +125, Total: 9

The Tigers look to extend their five-game winning streak on Wednesday night when they visit the struggling Rangers, losers of six in a row.

Detroit was not looking good earlier this month when it relinquished its AL Central lead, but has now rattled off five straight wins to reclaim a three-game lead in the division. The Tigers' 8-2 victory on Tuesday night marked their fourth straight game where they scored at least five runs, as Detroit tallied 16 hits in the win with two leaving the park. 2B Ian Kinsler hit one of the homers against his former team, and has been hot over his past 10 games, going 17-for-43 (.395) with four doubles, three home runs, 10 RBI and eight runs. Texas has struggled with big injuries to many of its key players this year and enters this game as losers in the past six contests. The Rangers have also struggled offensively in their past five games, scoring just 11 runs (2.2 per game). 3B Adrian Beltre has not been struggling though, and went 4-for-4 in Tuesday’s loss to make him 11-for-27 (.407) with two doubles and 5 RBI over his past seven games. Looking to extend the Tigers winning streak in this one will be RHP Anibal Sanchez (4-2, 2.33 ERA) and he will be going up against 33-year-old veteran LHP Joe Saunders (0-3, 4.11 ERA). With Tuesday’s win, Detroit pushed its road record to an incredible 22-13 and is the favorite to earn its 23rd victory against a Texas team that is just 16-20 at home this year. While this season has not gone well for the Rangers, they have gone 14-8 in this particular series over the past three years (3-2 this year) and are 7-4 at home over that time. Bettors should take notice that Texas is just 5-15 (.250) at home when the money line is +125 to -125 this season, but also consider that Anibal Sanchez’s teams are a woeful 9-21 (.300) after he gave up one or less earned runs in his previous outing over the past two seasons. On the injury side of things, OF Torii Hunter (hamstring) is day-to-day for Detroit while Texas is still without the services of plenty of offensive players (Prince Fielder, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Jurickson Profar, Mitch Moreland) and key pitchers (Matt Harrison, Derek Holland, Alexi Ogando, Martin Perez, Tanner Scheppers) for this contest.

Anibal Sanchez has continued to be an extremely effective pitcher this year despite seeing his strikeout rate drop from 10.0 K/9 last season to just 7.6 per nine innings over 12 starts in 2014. He has been amazing at keeping the ball in the park, allowing just one home run (0.13 HR/9) in his 69.2 innings. Part of his success has been luck though, as batters are hitting just .232 BABIP. Sanchez's great consistency has led to him having six straight quality starts coming into this contest while posting a solid 32:6 K/BB ratio in that time (41.2 IP). Sanchez’s last game was against the Royals when he earned his fourth win of the year after going seven innings and giving up just one run on five hits and one walk while failing to record a strikeout. He has not done well in four career starts against the Rangers though, going 1-3 with a 6.98 ERA and 1.86 WHIP, but has been solid in his past two outings against them, throwing 12.2 frames while allowing 11 hits and four runs with 11 strikeouts and only two walks. Stud 3B Adrian Beltre has gone 6-for-8 with a double and 3 RBI in his career versus Sanchez, while SS Elvis Andrus is just 3-for-13 (1 triple, 2 RBI, 3 K’s) over his time against the veteran righty. Detroit’s bullpen has continued to be its weakest link, going 9-9 with a 4.75 ERA while saving 20-of-28 (71%) games. Closer Joe Nathan (6.18 ERA, 15 saves) is only 15-for-20 in his save opportunities and has already walked 13 batters in 27.2 frames (4.2 BB/9) this year

Joe Saunders found his way into the Rangers’ rotation due to plenty of injuries to their top guys, and so far he has done just about as well as expected. He has yet to earn his first win of the year, but has allowed two or fewer earned runs in four of his six outings. Saunders has never been a swing-and-miss type pitcher, whiffing just 5.2 batters per nine innings over his career, and it has not been too different this season with 5.3 K/9. On the other hand, his control has suffered, as he is walking 3.8 batters per nine innings. He earned his third loss of the year in his last outing, going just 4.2 frames against the Angels while surrendering seven runs (4 ER) on 10 hits and three walks with three strikeouts. Saunders has had plenty of experience against Detroit, and he is 1-3 (4-6 team record) with a 5.21 ERA and 1.43 WHIP against them, while he hasn’t started a game that his team has won when facing them since 2009. Some of the Tigers batters have been great in this matchup with 2B Ian Kinsler (12-for-36, 3 doubles, 4 HR, 8 RBI, 4 walks), OF Rajai Davis (12-for-39, 4 doubles, 1 RBI) and 1B Miguel Cabrera (6-for-17, 2 doubles, 3 RBI, 5 walks) all having success. Meanwhile, OF Austin Jackson (1-for-7, 3 K’s) has not done well against the 33-year-old starter. The Rangers’ relievers have really struggled this season, going 14-13 with a 4.51 ERA, while converting only 16-of-25 (64%) save chances. Joakim Soria (1.75 ERA, 15 saves) has been tremendous in his return to the closer role this year though, and has blown just one save while posting an impressive 35:3 K/BB ratio over 25.2 innings on the mound.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Access

Nationals -135

Braves -130

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTSWAGERS

MLB

Oakland @ N.Y. METS

N.Y. METS +102 over Oakland

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.04)

Indeed the A's are a top tier team with a 47-30 record but they've lost two straight and they've cooled off considerably after a torrid start. In fact the A's are just 17-13 over their past 30 games and seven of those wins occurred against the reeling Yanks and Red Sox. Oakland dropped the opener of this series last night by a score of 10-1 and that was Scott Kazmir against Bartolo Colon. Things do not get easier here with Brad Mills against Zack Wheeler. Mills has made one start this season against the weak hitting Red Sox and gave up three runs in four innings. He also walked four batters and posted a groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 45%/45%/9%. The soft-tossing Mills relies on command and varying speeds on his curve-ball and change-up while spotting an 86 MPH fastball when least expected. Notwithstanding Friday's performance, a career 7.53 ERA (and 10 HR in 57.1 IP) points to his inferior stuff and what happens when his command is off. Mills is clearly not recommended until he shows more consistency and in no way can this stiff ever be favored over Wheeler.

Zack Wheeler has a mediocre 3.93 ERA and 1.32 WHIP after 14 starts and he's the reason we put more emphasis on skills as opposed to surface stats. Wheeler's 94-mph four-seam fastball velocity is the sixth-highest among qualified NL SP. An unlucky 33% hit rate is the reason for his elevated WHIP but a correction to the good is coming in both his ERA and WHIP. Wheeler has 87 K's in 87 innings. His elite swing and miss rate of 12% over his last six starts fully supports his strikeouts. Wheeler also has an elite 58% groundball rate over that same span to go along with an xERA of 2.39. Wheeler is the straight goods and his surface stats are likely the most misleading of any starter in baseball. We now get one of the best “buy-low” opportunities of the year and we're not going to pass it up. Invest.


Los Angeles @ KANSAS CITY

Los Angeles +120 over KANSAS CITY

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)

James Shields is a pitcher in peril. He's getting himself into several jams every game and in fact has allowed 34 hits over his last 24 innings. Shields' strikeout rate is way down and his oppBA this season of .274 is almost 20 points higher than his career oppBA. Shields' has been a workhorse for years but those 1800 career innings at the age of 32 are taking a toll. Constant skills erosion, notably strikeout and groundball rates have deteriorated to red-flag levels. Regression analysis says to expect a partial skills rebound but even a return all the way to '11-'12 levels--which may have well been his peak--nets worse stats in a luck-neutral season. James Shields' 8-3 record is the direct result of outstanding run support but that can't last. His xERA of 4.40 over his last eight starts tells the real story of an overpriced and overrated pitcher.

For his entire 12-year, Dan Haren has consistently posted eye-catching strikeout-to-walk ratios. Last year was no exception, but the 4.67 ERA that went along with it was disappointing. He appears back on track this season in terms of ERA. Is it just better luck or is there some other reason for the improvement? Haren has succeeded thus far with a slightly different skill set than previous years. A high strand % of 77% and lower hr/f is what separates Haren's from last season but it is NOT all luck. Haren is once again displaying excellent control but his K rate and swing and miss rate are at the lowest level in a decade. He's inducing more ground balls than he did a year ago and now carries the highest groundball % of his career to this point in the season. The drop in swings and misses and rise in groundball % raises a key question: Is he intentionally pitching to contact and trying to induce more ground balls or will the loss of velocity and strikeouts come back to bite him? Time will tell. One thing we should count on is an increase in strand % and at least a slight rise in hr/f that will cause Haren's ERA to slightly rise. However, Haren's xERA of 3.67 and his 10 pure quality starts in 15 tries suggests that would probably be an acceptable outcome. In summarizing, Haren throws strikes, he rarely walks a batter, he's inducing more groundballs than ever and he's a far better option taking back a tag than Shields' is spotting one.


Atlanta @ HOUSTON

Atlanta -1 +100 over HOUSTON

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)

Alex Wood returns to the rotation after 11 straight appearances out of the pen. Wood is not a reliever and is much better suited as a starter and we should see immediate results from this talented second-rounder. Wood brings a 5-6 record with a 3.43 ERA into this game but his xERA of 2.77 as a starter is a better barometer from which to judge him. In five April starts, Wood lost three games by scores of 1-0, 1-0 and 2-1. In 60 innings overall he has an elite BB/K split of 15/63. As a starter, he had a 59% groundball rate and an elite 13% swing and miss rate, Wood can downright dominate and his swing and miss stuff should bode well here against an Astros team that has struck out more than any team in MLB.

Collin McHugh is a rags-to-riches story.Formerly Colorado's waiver fodder and NYM farm-hand, Houston picked up McHugh -- owner of a career 8.94 ERA at the MLB level -- in December, and inserted him into the rotation in April following a Scott Feldman injury. So, color us surprised that he's pitched like an ace since then. McHugh has been quite the reclamation project: He boasted 8 k's per nine and 2.7 walks per nine in three Triple-A seasons but has amped it up to elite territory, supported by a robust 12% swing and miss rate. It's perhaps a byproduct of a revamped repertoire featuring more sliders and curveballs. He was torched in his previous MLB stints with his line-drive rate approaching 30% on both occasions. Hitters aren't seeing such juicy offerings this time around (23% LD%), which has also helped to keep his hit % in check. McHugh's hr/f% has corrected to a more palatable level, but he still serves up too many fly-balls, which could turn out to be an issue at Minute Maid Park (+5% LHB HR). It will be interesting to see how McHugh holds up his second time around the league, as his performance thus far is mostly unprecedented. And his success has coincided with another one of Houston's break-out arms, Dallas Keuchel, to form one of the more improbable 1-2 punches in the league. It's worth noting that in 27 IP in June McHugh's swing and miss rate fell to a more reasonable 9% with more walks than he was issuing previously. We knew he'd come back down to Earth eventually, but how hard he crashes will determine whether he's more than just a flash in the pan. Now that he's no longer flying under the radar, MLB hitters will and probably have studied him more extensively. McHugh may not be fooling hitters much longer and now is the time to sell high.



FIFA World Cup

Pass on Wednesday's FIFA World Cup games. We'll have one game posted for tomorrow and plenty more in the round of 16.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

100* Washington Nationals -135

50* Atlanta Braves -120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZWINNERS


1 STAR SELECTION

Game: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Tampa Bay Rays

(921) Pittsburgh Pirates +$137

(Risking $100 to win $137) (Action)


1 STAR SELECTION

Game: Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles

(911) Chicago White Sox +$134

(Risking $100 to win $134) (Action)



1 STAR SELECTION

Game: Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels

(917) Minnesota Twins +$166

(Risking $100 to win $166) (Action)