6-26-14

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World Cup Game of the Day: Germany vs. USA

Germany vs. USA (-150, +900, Draw +210)

After coming within seconds of punching their ticket to the knockout round of the World Cup, the crestfallen American team must quickly regroup as they face a daunting showdown with Germany at Recife's Arena Pernambuco on Thursday afternoon. The U.S. surrendered a late goal to settle for a 2-2 draw with Portugal, and needs a win or a draw to assure itself an automatic berth in the next round. Germany is coming off a stunning 2-2 draw with Ghana.

Not only do the Americans need to come up big against a German side that has dominated the all-time head-to-head matchup, it will need to do so without one of its top offensive players. Jozy Altidore will miss the game with a strained left hamstring, and his creativity and speed will be sorely missed with the tough German defense waiting. U.S. head coach Jurgen Klinsmann is no stranger to Thursday's foe, having made 108 international caps with Germany.

TV: 12 p.m. ET, ESPN

WORLD RANKINGS: Germany: No. 2; USA: No. 13.

INJURY REPORT: Germany: D Jerome Boateng suffered a hip injury in the first half of Saturday's draw with Ghana but is expected to play; F Thomas Muller suffered a head injury late against Ghana but will play; MF Sami Khedira has a strained left knee and is questionable. USA: F Jozy Altidore has been ruled out with a strained left hamstring; D Matt Besler tweaked his hamstring in the Americans' previous game but will play Thursday.

WHAT THE SHARPS SAY: "Dare the Germans and USA play out a draw to see them both qualify? They can't be caught by Ghana or Portugal with a point. Die Mannschaft of course have dismissed any chance of settling for a draw, despite Joachim Loew and Jurgen Klinsman being close friends. How will it play out?" Covers Expert Footy Tipster.

WHAT THE BOOKS SAY: "A HUGE game for the USA, with a win or tie to get them into the round of 16. Germany looking to lock up top spot in the group. With the USA listed at +650, we are seeing the majority of the action come in on them at that number, while Germany has seen some god action as of late. We would like to see this match end in a draw as both teams will move on and the Germans would win the group. With the USA moving through to the next round the interest is only going to grow, which will be great for our volume as the tournament draws to an end." Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.

ABOUT GERMANY: Jogi Low's decision to go with 22-year-old World Cup novice Shkodran Mustafi in place of the hobbled Boateng played a major role in Germany having to settle for a demoralizing single point against Ghana.Mustafi failed to provide adequate resistance on Andre Ayew's game-tying header in the 54th minute, and the Ghanaians used the subsequent momentum shift to take a brief lead before Germany equalized. The Germans continued their trend of underperforming in the second game of the group stage, winning just one of their last six since 1994.

ABOUT USA: Klinsmann knows what his team needs to do to advance to the next round - a draw would suffice - but he's only thinking in terms of winning. "We want to beat Germany and be first in our group," he told reporters after the Portugal draw. ""We know a tie gets us through, too, but our goal is to beat Germany and be first in our group in order to play the second of (Group H)." The U.S. showed dramatic improvement from one match to the next, controlling the ball just 38 percent of the time against Ghana but increasing that to 48 percent versus Portugal.

TRENDS:

* Germany has won six of the nine meetings between the teams.
* The Americans prevailed 4-3 in their previous meeting in a friendly last June in Washington, D.C.
* German F Miroslav Klose needs one goal to become the leading scorer in World Cup history.
* The Americans completed 85 percent of their passes against Portugal, a vast improvement from their 72 percent success rate vs. Ghana.

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CFL season betting preview: How to bet the East Division
By SEAN MURPHY

The 2014 CFL season will kick off on Thursday night in Winnipeg as the Blue Bombers host the Argos. There will be nine teams competing for the ultimate prize this year, as Ottawa has re-joined the fold.

Here’s a look at how the East Division teams stack up entering the new campaign.

East Division

Montreal Alouettes (2013: 8-10 SU, 11-7 ATS)

Odds to win division: +250
Odds to win Grey Cup: +706

Why to bet the Alouettes: Montreal might possess the best receiving corps in the CFL, led by Jamel Richardson, S.J. Green and emerging young talent Duron Carter. Former Heisman Trophy winner, QB Troy Smith has big shoes to fill, but does have the pedigree to succeed, and he’ll get plenty of help. The East Division might be a little watered down with the addition of expansion Ottawa, perhaps opening the door for an Als bounce-back year.

Why not to bet the Alouettes: The Anthony Calvillo era has come to an end, and that obviously leaves more questions than answers. That’s not to mention the fact that the Als lost a pair of offensive line standouts to retirement in the offseason, and did little to improve their team by way of free agency or the draft.

Grey Cup outlook: Poor. Inconsistency will plague the Als on both sides of the football, leading to a likely third place finish in the East Division.

Toronto Argonauts (2013: 11-7 SU, 9-8-1 ATS)

Odds to win division: +150
Odds to win Grey Cup: +639

Why to bet the Argos: The face of the league is also the face of the Argos in QB Ricky Ray. While health has been an issue in recent years, if Ray can stay on the field, the Argos will be among the best offensive teams in the league once again.

Why not to bet the Argos: Toronto will be forced to go with a running back by committee approach after Chad Kackert’s sudden retirement. Losing cornerback Patrick Watkins and versatile QB Zach Collaros won’t help matters either. It remains to be seen whether the Argos have enough depth to contend in the East.

Grey Cup outlook: Average at best. Scott Milanovich has proven to be a first class head coach, but he’ll need to do some of his best work to get the Argos back to the Grey Cup this year.

Hamilton Tiger-Cats (2013: 10-8 SU, 9-9 ATS)

Odds to win division: +200
Odds to win Grey Cup: +700

Why to bet the Ti-Cats: Credit Ti-Cats management for shaking things up after reaching last year’s Grey Cup. Henry Burris wasn’t getting any younger, and the move to a younger, more versatile QB in Zach Collaros should give the offense another shot in the arm. In fact, most of Hamilton’s offseason focus was placed on improving the offense.

Why not to bet the Ti-Cats: How long will it take Collaros to get up to speed with the offense? There are also a number of questions on the defensive side of the football, where the Ti-Cats did little to improve prospects in the offseason.

Grey Cup outlook: Good. The Ti-Cats will be hungry to get back after getting embarrassed by the Riders last November.

Ottawa Redblacks (2013: N/A)

Odds to win division: +500
Odds to win Grey Cup: +1800

Why to bet the Redblacks: There’s reason for optimism in Ottawa, even if it is the Redblacks inaugural campaign. While they are starting from scratch, the cupboard is by no means bare. Henry Burris will start the season under centre, while RB Chevon Walker and WR Paris Jackson give them much needed explosiveness all over the field. Ottawa’s defensive roster is filled with veterans.

Why not to bet the Redblacks: It’s obviously going to take some time for the roster to mesh. We did see some promising signs in the preseason, but it’s important not to get too carried away with those exhibition results. Ottawa may contend with its Eastern counterparts, but the West will be another story.

Grey Cup outlook: Not a chance. The Redblacks will simply be looking to build toward the future this year. As long as the product they put on the field is entertaining, it’s a win for the city of Ottawa.

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CFL season betting preview: How to bet the West Division
By SEAN MURPHY

The 2014 CFL season will kick off on Thursday night in Winnipeg as the Blue Bombers host the Argos. There will be nine teams competing for the ultimate prize this year, as Ottawa has re-joined the fold. The B.C. Lions are currently favored to hoist the Grey Cup, with Saskatchewan and Calgary not far behind.

Here’s a look at how the West Division teams stack up entering the new campaign.

West Division

Calgary Stampeders (2013: 14-4 SU, 11-6-1 ATS)

Odds to win division: +200
Odds to win Grey Cup: +404

Why to bet the Stampeders: Calgary has two of the league’s best (some would say backup) quarterbacks in Drew Tate and Bo Levi Mitchell. Who will get the starting nod remains to be seen, but it’s a nice problem to have in the CFL, where durability tends to be an issue. With former Most Outstanding Player winner Jon Cornish in the backfield, neither Tate or Mitchell will have to shoulder the entire load.

Why not to bet the Stampeders: Has the window closed on the Stampeders? It seemed as if they peaked two years ago, when they reached the Grey Cup in Toronto. While they were terrific in the regular season a year ago, the playoffs were a different story.

Grey Cup outlook: Good. However, they’re going to need the offense to hum under the guidance of Tate or Mitchell.

Saskatchewan Roughriders (2013: 11-7 SU, 8-9-1 ATS)

Odds to win division: +200
Odds to win Grey Cup: +397

Why to bet the Roughriders: Darian Durant is back under centre, giving the Riders some continuity on offense. They’ve got plenty of depth all over the field, which is a good thing given some of the offseason departures. Don’t sleep on the Riders defense either, one of the most underrated units in the league.

Why not to bet the Roughriders: Kory Sheets and Weston Dressler will both be trying out south of the border this Summer, leaving a pair of substantial voids in the Riders offense. While both could return, that wouldn’t be likely to happen until Labour Day.

Grey Cup outlook: Not as good as the odds indicate. Could a letdown be in order after the Riders won the Grey Cup in their own backyard last year?

B.C. Lions (2013: 11-7 SU, 9-9 ATS)

Odds to win division: +180
Odds to win Grey Cup: +323

Why to bet the Lions: The Grey Cup host has ultimately hoisted the trophy in each of the last two years, and it’s the Lions turn this Fall. The sky is the limit for a team that’s loaded with stars on both sides of the football. The addition of QB Kevin Glenn gives the Lions a nice veteran presence behind Travis Lulay.

Why not to bet the Lions: The Lions offensive line is young and inexperienced. It won’t matter who is taking the snaps if the line can’t protect. We’ve seen this story play out before, with the Lions receiving plenty of hype prior to the start of the season, only to disappoint. We’ll see if that holds true this year.

Grey Cup outlook: Excellent. On paper, the Lions are the favorite for good reason. The added motivation of hosting the Grey Cup should serve them well.

Edmonton Eskimos (2013: 4-14 SU, 8-10 ATS)

Odds to win division: +500
Odds to win Grey Cup: +1000

Why to bet the Eskimos: Last season was a rebuilding year, plain and simple. Expectations aren’t all that high this year either, but the potential is there for the Esks to make a move. Mike Reilly has cemented his role as the team’s starting QB. The addition of former Argos defensive coordinator Chris Jones, not to mention CB Patrick Watkins bolsters an already promising defensive corps.

Why not to bet the Eskimos: Make no mistake, the Esks are still in rebuild mode. In a tough West Division, they’re unlikely to contend, but would look at six or seven wins as a major positive moving forward. If Reilly can’t stay healthy, the offense could be in serious trouble.

Grey Cup outlook: Poor. The Eskimos will be a fun team to watch, and should make positive strides, but shouldn’t be involved in too many Grey Cup conversations.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers (2013: 3-15 SU, 5-12-1 ATS)

Odds to win division: +1000
Odds to win Grey Cup: +1200

Why to bet the Blue Bombers: New head coach Mike O’Shea should provide a breath of fresh air to a struggling Blue Bombers franchise. After ranking last in both scoring offense and defense a year ago, there’s nowhere to go but up for the Bombers. QB Drew Willy takes over the offense and the move should pay dividends in short order.

Why not to bet the Blue Bombers: Outside of O’Shea and Willy, there are few reasons for optimism – this year at least. The Bombers are in a similar position to that of the Eskimos last year. They know the direction they’re headed in, but not quite sure how to get there. We’ll see plenty of growing pains again in 2014.

Grey Cup outlook: Poor. Unless O’Shea is able to pull off a miracle in his first year in Winnipeg, the Bombers will likely be looking at a five or six win season.

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Game of the Day: Argonauts at Blue Bombers

Toronto Argonauts at Winnipeg Blue Bombers (+5, 53.5)

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers host the Toronto Argonauts on Thursday to kick off the 2014 CFL season. It’s a matchup between the best and worst teams in the East Division last season, with Toronto using its depth on offense to earn a first-round playoff bye. The Blue Bombers, meanwhile, allowed a league-worst 585 points and managed one victory at brand-new Investors Group Field.

Winnipeg overhauled its roster in the offseason starting at quarterback, where former Saskatchewan Roughriders backup pivot Drew Willy will have a chance to establish himself as a starter. If the preseason is any indication, Argonauts veteran Ricky Ray looks healthy and ready to resume running the offense with capable backups Trevor Harris and Mitchell Gale behind him on the depth chart. The big question for Winnipeg will be whether its injury-depleted defense can handle Toronto’s pace and give Willy a shot at his first victory as a Blue Bomber.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, TSN

LINE HISTORY: Toronto opened as a 5-point home favorite (-106) and jumped to -5 (-108). The total opened 53.5 points (Over -106) and has moved to Over -109.

INJURY REPORT: Winnipeg: Paris Cotton RB (Doubt/knee), Graig Newman DB (Out/Ankle)

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Toronto will be forced to go with a running back by committee approach after Chad Kackert’s sudden retirement. Losing cornerback Patrick Watkins and versatile QB Zach Collaros won’t help matters either. It remains to be seen whether the Argos have enough depth to contend in the East." - Covers Expert Sean Murphy.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Opening night of the CFL pits the Toronto Argonauts vs the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. We have instilled the Argos as 4.5-point favorites on the road with a 53.5 point total. The early action is coming in on the home dog Blue Bombers, but as we get closer to game time we will start seeing money come in on the Argos. The Argos are +700 to win the Grey Cup this year while the Blue Bombers are +1200." Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag.

ABOUT THE ARGONAUTS (2013: 11-7, 9-8-1 ATS): Former Montreal Alouettes linebacker Shea Emry is the new face of Toronto’s defense, bringing his impressive resume to a group that faced a lot of turnover in the offseason. Changes will be notable on offense as well after veteran wide receiver Romby Bryant was released in the final round of cuts and running back Chad Kackert announced his retirement. Recently released slotback Jamel Richardson is rumored to be joining the Argonauts, giving Ray another option alongside Chad Owens.

ABOUT THE BLUE BOMBERS (2013: 3-15, 5-12-1 ATS): Linebacker Korey Banks, cornerback Donovan Alexander and defensive back Alex Suber are all injured to start the season, leaving plenty of holes in pass protection. Former starting quarterback Max Hall was among the final round of cuts for Winnipeg, an indication the team seems confident in Willy as the No. 1 option. Willy will have former training partner Nick Moore and a host of new receiving options to work with as the Blue Bombers try to rebuild an offense that never really came to life in 2013.

TRENDS:

* Argonauts are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings in Winnipeg.
* Argonauts are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Under is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings in Winnipeg.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 55 percent of bets are on Toronto -5. 53.5 percent of bets are on Over 53.5.

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What you need to know weather-wise for USA-Germany
Stephen Campbell

It's going to be a muggy afternoon in Recife, Brazil for the United States' final Group G match with Germany. A temperature of 81 degrees is expected at gametime, but the humidity will make it feel like it's closer to 100, creating sweltering conditions for the players.

Forecasts are currently calling for a 40 percent chance of precipitation, but if the skies do open up the rainfall will be minimal and it is not expected to have an impact on the match.

Pinnacle currently has the Germans as -184 faves.

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USA must overcome Manaus hangover versus Germany
Andrew Avery

There have been four games played thus far in the Amazonian city of Manaus, where the humidity and heat have been a major burden on teams. Especially on the teams' next games.

Of the four teams to play a match following their fixture in the city - Italy, England, Cameroon and Croatia - all four have lost.

The United States and Portugal played to a 2-2 draw in their Group G fixture and Jurgen Klinsmann's men must take the field and get a result versus Germany if they wish to advance to the knockout phase.

The Over/Under count is 3-1 for those four sides playing their next game, with only Italy-Costa Rica (0-1) staying under the total.

The Stars and Stripes are currently +1137 underdogs at Pinnacle Sports with Germany -186 and the Draw +246.

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No Limit Sports

World Cup Soccer

Draw (USA vs Germany) +175

Portugal/Ghana Under 3 (+126)

South Korea/Belgium Under 2.5 (+107)

Algeria +.5 (+123)

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INDIAN COWBOY (World Cup Soccer)

5-Unit Play. Take Under 2.5 Goals – USA vs. Germany (-105) (Thursday @ Noon est)

4-Unit Play. Take Portugal/Ghana – Over 2.5 (-170) (Thursday @ Noon est) Note: This is an Alternative Total.

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STEVE GOLF PICKS (six pack)

“Quicken Loans National”

Jordan Spieth 13/1 – Spieth is the best golfer in the world right now in my opinion and will be on this list for the foreseeable future. He has posted Top 20 finishes in six of his last seven starts and returns to a course that he looked great on last season. Through the first two rounds Spieth was tied for the lead, but unfortunately shot a 3rd round 74 and would go onto finish in 6th place. Jordan made just three bogeys in his 1st, 2nd and 4th rounds combined here last season.

Jordan has a ridiculous 14 Top 25 finishes in just 18 starts this season. He puts himself in position to win almost every week and it is his putting that has a large part to do with it. Jordan is 29th on Tour for Stokes Gained through Putting, and 7th on Tour for putting between 15 and 20 feet. A key this week will be players ability to scramble as Congressional is difficult around the greens, and Jordan is excellent at getting the ball up and down (sits 8th on Tour in Scrambling 63%).

Brendon Todd 30/1 – Todd is really playing some great golf right now. Following his win at the HP Byron Nelson Championship he has finishes of Crowne Plaza (T5), Memorial (T8) and US Open (T17). He would have actually contended for the US Open on Sunday if he hadn’t shot a 79 during his third round, as he was -5 in his other three rounds. The University of Georgia Alum is riding this excellent momentum right into a tournament he has a good history at.

Todd placed T13 here last season and that was after an opening round 74. During Todd’s second and third rounds here last season he made an impressive 9 birdies and just two bogeys. Todd loved shooting at these greens as he hit an impressive 78% of them in Regulation last season at Congressional. He will want to work on his bunker play though as he was just 33% last year at getting the ball up and down out of them. Look for Todd to ride his momentum right into a great Maryland finish.

Webb Simpson 29/1 – It just feels like Webb Simpson is going to win very soon. He placed T3 just three weeks ago at the St. Jude Classic and will be playing a course this week that he loves. Simpson stated during the 2011 US Open here that he loves the layout of Congressional and likes how it challenges the players. He placed T14 that year at the US Open, so he really did enjoy the course.

Simpson has only played in this event once before and he finished T35. Though that doesn’t seem impressive it should be noted that he did have rounds of 67 and 68 that week (it was his Par 4 performance that hurt him as he played them +5 for the week). Simpson is 9th on Tour in Strokes Gained Through Putting and an impressive 31st in Scrambling. Simpson is 2nd on Tour for putting between 10-15 feet and is 3rd on Tour for putting between 20-25 feet. This North Carolina native is going to be on the first page of the leaderboard all week at Congressional.

Hunter Mahan 45/1 – we go with another great putter in Hunter Mahan as our next selection. No one is talking about Hunter this week because he has missed the Cut in his past two starts. They are over looking his terrific record here though (2007 – T8, 2008 – T12, 2009 – 2nd, 2012 – T8, 2013 -MC). I would say that four finishes inside the Top 15 out of five chances should get him some recognition.

Mahan has worked very hard this season on his scrambling but he still relies very heavily on his putting. A key for Hunter will be to hit plenty of Greens in Regulation this week, something he has done in the past at Congressional. On the season Hunter hits more than 65% of his Greens in Regulation. The one thing I love that Hunter does well is his ability to drive the ball long and straight off the tee. Hunter ranks 10th on Tour in Total Driving, and his ability to hit fairways this week should help vault him up the leaderboard.

Kevin Chappell 75/1 – Chappell is a name the we see every few months near the Top of leaderboards. I feel that it will be a more common name on the first page of leaderboards in the next few years. Chappell was playing well until he struggled the past two tournaments, but Congressional should help get him back on track. Many will remember Kevin finishing in a tie for 3rd at the 2011 US Open (at Congressional). In his two editions of this tournament he has finished 2012 – T58 and 2013 – T28.

On the season Kevin ranks 20th on Tour in Total Driving and that allows him to rank 25th on Tour for Greens in Regulation (68%). Putting will be the key to Chappell’s success this week as he ranks 159th on Tour for Strokes Gained through Putting. Look for him to draw on those emotions from 2011 at the US Open and get that flat stick working.

Nick Watney 60/1 – Watney is my pick this week and that is even surprising for me to say. Nick posted his first Top 20 of the season last week at the Travelers Championship when he finished T11 (17 Tournaments). I have been waiting for him to start playing well because he is one of the more talented players on Tour. Watney has won 5 times during his career on the PGA Tour ( 2007 – Zurich Classic, 2009 – Buick Invitational, 2011- WGC Caddillac, 2011 – AT&T National, 2012 – Barclays).

Watney won this event the year it was held at Aronimink because of the United States Open being played at Congressional. He did enjoy a good tournament at Congressional in 2012 though when he finished 10th. You know Watney wants to get back to being one of the best players on Tour and he must think about the Ryder Cup coming up this season. To make that team Watney will probably need a win, and this week seems like a great place for that to happen.

HEAD TO HEAD

We have been dominating the HEAD to HEADS recently to help minimize the damage from the outright selections. We go with another big head to head.

4 Units – Jordan Spieth (-1.5) -135 over Tiger Woods – will will take Spieth on the spread against Woods as the ML is as high as -160. He will have no trouble beating Tiger by 2 strokes this week as we all know Woods will be rusty. Spieth will be in the Top 10 yet again this week and will win us some nice Units on this match up.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Thursday's Group G Play


United States vs. Germany (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Line
Germany -144, United States +650, Tie +125
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over -109, Under -120)

After letting a chance to win Group G slip away with a goal allowed in the 95th minute, the United States and Germany are still in the driver's seat to advance to the next round when the two clubs meet on Thursday.

The Americans nearly had their second straight 2-1 victory to open the tournament, but a horrendous giveaway in midfield by Michael Bradley allowed Portugal to score the equalizer on the last kick of the game. Germany also had a chance to clinch the group, but had to settle for a 2-2 draw with heavy underdog Ghana. Both teams will advance on Thursday with a tie, and Germany (+4 goal differential) will likely get through to the Round of 16 even with a loss to the Americans.

The United States could also lose and get through with a Ghana/Portugal tie or a Portugal win by less than three goals. But if the U.S. loses and Ghana wins by at least two goals, the Americans would be sent home. The United States will still be missing starting striker Jozy Altidore, who is likely finished for the 2014 World Cup because of a left hamstring injury. The head coach of the Americans knows this German side very well, as Jurgen Klinsmann has both played and coached Germany in past World Cups.

The Americans have been led by forward Clint Dempsey, who scored a goal in the first 30 seconds of the tournament opener, broke his nose later that game, and also scored at the 81st minute against Portugal with what looked to be the game-winner at the time. John Brooks Jr. and Jermaine Jones have the club's other two goals in the World Cup.

USA has been outshot badly in this tournament by a combined total of 41-23, but are an even 17-17 in terms of shots on goal with nine corner kicks compared to 11 for their opponents. The Americans have also lost the time of possession in both matches, holding the ball for only 40% of the time versus Ghana and 48% of the time versus Portugal.

But the United States has been whistled for only 23 fouls and two offsides in the World Cup and their only booked player was Jones picking up a yellow card versus Portugal. It will be interesting to see how star midfielder Michael Bradley bounces back from a match in which he failed to score a point-blank opportunity with the goalie out of net (his shot was blocked by a Portugal defender) and turned the ball over in the final minute to allow Portugal to force a tie. But the U.S. has to be confident in the play of goalie Tim Howard, who has made some brilliant saves this tournament, especially versus Portugal.

Germany has scored six times in the World Cup with Thomas Muller netting half of those goals against Portugal. Muller, who also has an assist during the tournament, has eight goals in eight career World Cup matches.

Mats Hummels, Mario Gotze and Miroslav Klose have the other tallies for the Germans, with Klose's tally marking his 15th career World Cup goal, which ties Ronaldo for the all-time record. Germany possessed the ball for 54% of the time versus Portugal and 59% of the time versus Ghana, and hold an 11-9 edge in corner kicks on their opponents.

But Germany has been outshot by a hefty 34-24 margin in total shots for the tournament (19-15 in shots on goal). With the Germans needing only a tie to win this group, expect them to employ a more defensive game plan on Thursday.


Portugal vs. Ghana (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Line
Portugal +135, Ghana +177, Tie +260
Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (Over +155, Under -188)

Group G play of the 2014 World Cup wraps up on Thursday afternoon with Portugal and Ghana both needing a win and some help to push through to the Round of 16.

Portugal is quite a longshot to advance due to their minus-4 goal differential, but if they can beat Ghana 3-0 and have Germany beat the United States by a 2-0 margin, they will advance to the knockout stage. Ghana would only need to win 2-0 over Portugal plus a 1-0 Germany victory over the U.S. to reach the Round of 16.

Both of these clubs are coming off somewhat surprising draws, as Portugal needed a goal in the 95th minute versus the United States to keep its chances intact of advancing, while Ghana played heavily-favored Germany to a 2-2 draw in its last match. Ghana's Michael Essien is unlikely to start again due to his lingering toe injury, but Portugal should see an improvement on their back line with the return of Pepe who missed the last game after his silly head-butt to Germany's Thomas Muller.

Portugal, referred to as Seleccao, saw star Cristiano Ronaldo play a horrible match versus the US due largely to a lingering knee injury, but he still found a way to serve a perfect cross to the head of Silvestre Varela in the final minute of stoppage time to help his team earn a draw and keep small hopes alive for moving on in this tournament. Nani opened the scoring in that epic draw with an easy goal five minutes in off a horrible clear by the American defender.

Although Portugal carries a minus-4 goal differential due to getting waxed 4-0 by Germany in the World Cup Opener, the team has outshot both of its opponents, holding a 20-15 total shots advantage over the U.S. after outshooting Germany 14-13. But of Seleccao's 34 shots in the World Cup, only 18 have been on net. Portugal has also been pretty even in ball possession, holding a slim 52% to 48% advantage over the Americans after allowing the Germans to have a 54% possession.

Ghana, known as The Black Stars, really put the pressure on the Germans in their last match with 20 total shots, including 10 on goal. Germany attempted only 11 shots with six on goal. That gives Ghana 41 total shots (18 on goal) for the tournament while limiting their opponents to a paltry 19 total shots (13 on goal). Ghana's 4-3-3 formation and excellent goaltending by Fatau Dauda could cause trouble for Portugal's erratic attack.

The Black Stars did lose possession time to Germany by a substantial 59% to 41% margin, which was just the opposite of their first game when they held the ball 60% of the time versus the Americans. But Ghana has played extremely rough in this tournament with 27 fouls and three yellow cards. Two of those cards went to midfielder Sulley Muntari's whose booking in the 94th minute of the battle of Germany will earn him a one-game suspension. Midfielder Mohammed Rabiu also has to be careful not to pick up another yellow card like he did in that first match.

Ghana's lone goal of their first match came at the 82nd minute from Andre Ayew, assisted by Asamoah Gyan on a sweet back-heel pass. This duo was at it again versus Germany with one goal each -- Ayew tallying at the 54th minute, and Gyan scoring nine minutes later.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

USA, Germany look to advance on Thursday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox


2014 WORLD CUP SOCCER

UNITED STATES vs. GERMANY

Kickoff: Thursday, 12:00 p.m. EDT
Arena Pernambuco – Recife, Brazil

Line:
Germany -144, United States +650, Tie +125
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over -109, Under -120)

After letting a chance to win Group G slip away with a goal allowed in the 95th minute, the United States and Germany are still in the driver's seat to advance to the next round when the two clubs meet on Thursday.

The Americans nearly had their second straight 2-1 victory to open the tournament, but a horrendous giveaway in midfield by Michael Bradley allowed Portugal to score the equalizer on the last kick of the game. Germany also had a chance to clinch the group, but had to settle for a 2-2 draw with heavy underdog Ghana. Both teams will advance on Thursday with a tie, and Germany (+4 goal differential) will likely get through to the Round of 16 even with a loss to the Americans. The United States could also lose and get through with a Ghana/Portugal tie or a Portugal win by less than three goals. But if the U.S. loses and Ghana wins by at least two goals, the Americans would be sent home. The United States will still be missing starting striker Jozy Altidore, who is likely finished for the 2014 World Cup because of a left hamstring injury. The head coach of the Americans knows this German side very well, as Jurgen Klinsmann has both played and coached Germany in past World Cups.

The Americans have been led by forward Clint Dempsey, who scored a goal in the first 30 seconds of the tournament opener, broke his nose later that game, and also scored at the 81st minute against Portugal with what looked to be the game-winner at the time. John Brooks Jr. and Jermaine Jones have the club's other two goals in the World Cup. USA has been outshot badly in this tournament by a combined total of 41-23, but are an even 17-17 in terms of shots on goal with nine corner kicks compared to 11 for their opponents. The Americans have also lost the time of possession in both matches, holding the ball for only 40% of the time versus Ghana and 48% of the time versus Portugal. But the United States has been whistled for only 23 fouls and two offsides in the World Cup and their only booked player was Jones picking up a yellow card versus Portugal. It will be interesting to see how star midfielder Michael Bradley bounces back from a match in which he failed to score a point-blank opportunity with the goalie out of net (his shot was blocked by a Portugal defender) and turned the ball over in the final minute to allow Portugal to force a tie. But the U.S. has to be confident in the play of goalie Tim Howard, who has made some brilliant saves this tournament, especially versus Portugal.

Germany has scored six times in the World Cup with Thomas Muller netting half of those goals against Portugal. Muller, who also has an assist during the tournament, has eight goals in eight career World Cup matches. Mats Hummels, Mario Gotze and Miroslav Klose have the other tallies for the Germans, with Klose's tally marking his 15th career World Cup goal, which ties Ronaldo for the all-time record. Germany possessed the ball for 54% of the time versus Portugal and 59% of the time versus Ghana, and hold an 11-9 edge in corner kicks on their opponents. But Germany has been outshot by a hefty 34-24 margin in total shots for the tournament (19-15 in shots on goal). With the Germans needing only a tie to win this group, expect them to employ a more defensive game plan on Thursday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Portugal, Ghana both playing to win Thursday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox


2014 WORLD CUP SOCCER

PORTUGAL vs. GHANA

Kickoff: Thursday, 12:00 p.m. EDT
Nacional – Brasilia, Brazil

Line:
Portugal +135, Ghana +177, Tie +260
Over/Under: 3.5 Goals (Over +155, Under -188)

Group G play of the 2014 World Cup wraps up on Thursday afternoon with Portugal and Ghana both needing a win and some help to push through to the Round of 16.

Portugal is quite a longshot to advance due to their minus-4 goal differential, but if they can beat Ghana 3-0 and have Germany beat the United States by a 2-0 margin, they will advance to the knockout stage. Ghana would only need to win 2-0 over Portugal plus a 1-0 Germany victory over the U.S. to reach the Round of 16. Both of these clubs are coming off somewhat surprising draws, as Portugal needed a goal in the 95th minute versus the United States to keep its chances intact of advancing, while Ghana played heavily-favored Germany to a 2-2 draw in its last match. Ghana's Michael Essien is unlikely to start again due to his lingering toe injury, but Portugal should see an improvement on their back line with the return of Pepe who missed the last game after his silly head-butt to Germany's Thomas Muller.

Portugal, referred to as Seleccao, saw star Cristiano Ronaldo play a horrible match versus the US due largely to a lingering knee injury, but he still found a way to serve a perfect cross to the head of Silvestre Varela in the final minute of stoppage time to help his team earn a draw and keep small hopes alive for moving on in this tournament. Nani opened the scoring in that epic draw with an easy goal five minutes in off a horrible clear by the American defender. Although Portugal carries a minus-4 goal differential due to getting waxed 4-0 by Germany in the World Cup Opener, the team has outshot both of its opponents, holding a 20-15 total shots advantage over the U.S. after outshooting Germany 14-13. But of Seleccao's 34 shots in the World Cup, only 18 have been on net. Portugal has also been pretty even in ball possession, holding a slim 52% to 48% advantage over the Americans after allowing the Germans to have a 54% possession.

Ghana, known as The Black Stars, really put the pressure on the Germans in their last match with 20 total shots, including 10 on goal. Germany attempted only 11 shots with six on goal. That gives Ghana 41 total shots (18 on goal) for the tournament while limiting their opponents to a paltry 19 total shots (13 on goal). Ghana's 4-3-3 formation and excellent goaltending by Fatau Dauda could cause trouble for Portugal's erratic attack. The Black Stars did lose possession time to Germany by a substantial 59% to 41% margin, which was just the opposite of their first game when they held the ball 60% of the time versus the Americans. But Ghana has played extremely rough in this tournament with 27 fouls and three yellow cards. Two of those cards went to midfielder Sulley Muntari's whose booking in the 94th minute of the battle of Germany will earn him a one-game suspension. Midfielder Mohammed Rabiu also has to be careful not to pick up another yellow card like he did in that first match. Ghana's lone goal of their first match came at the 82nd minute from Andre Ayew, assisted by Asamoah Gyan on a sweet back-heel pass. This duo was at it again versus Germany with one goal each -- Ayew tallying at the 54th minute, and Gyan scoring nine minutes later.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Algeria, Russia seek first-ever Round of 16 berth Thursday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox


2014 WORLD CUP SOCCER

ALGERIA vs. RUSSIA

Kickoff: Thursday, 4:00 p.m. EDT
Arena Da Baixada – Curitiba, Brazil

Line:
Russia +120, Algeria +220 Tie +237
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over +130, Under -158)

Algeria and Russia both wrap up Group H play on Thursday in a match where the winner has a great chance to advance to the knockout round.

After losing a late lead in a 2-1 defeat to Belgium in its World Cup opener, Algeria stormed back for a 4-2 victory over South Korea to pick up a crucial three points. Russia was able to earn only a 1-1 draw with South Korea to begin the tournament, and a subsequent 1-0 loss to Belgium has Russia needing a victory to have any chance to advance to the Round of 16 for the first time ever. Algeria knows that a win plus a Belgium loss to South Korea will put them in first place in Group H, but a tie on Thursday should also send them through for the first time ever, unless the unlikely scenario occurs where South Korea beats a favored Belgium squad by at least three goals. The only injury concern for either team is whether or not Russia defenseman Aleksandr Kozlov can play after suffering an injury versus Belgium.

Algeria failed to score a goal in the entire 2010 World Cup, but coach Vahid Halilhodzic's club already has five tallies in its first two matches in this tournament. The team's penalty-kick goal by midfielder Sofiane Feghouli was its only shot on goal versus Belgium in a match where they attempted just three total shots, but was much more aggressive against South Korea with 15 shots on goal, eight shots on net, and four shots in net by four different players (forward Islam Slimani, defenseman Rafik Halliche and midfielders Abdelmoumene Djabou and Yacine Brahimi). And after being dominated in possession by Belgium (65% to 35%), Algeria held the ball 46% of the time versus South Korea. Although Algeria has been very physical in this tournament with 34 fouls, they have picked up only two yellow cards with midfielder Nabil Bentaleb in the opener and defender Madjid Bougherra in the most recent match.

With Russia needing a victory for a chance at advancement, expect Fabio Capello's squad to be much more aggressive in this match. But it's all about finishing for this team that has attempted a solid 29 total shots, with 16 of those on goal, so far in the tournament. But only Alexander Kerzhakov was able to find the back of the net for Russia in the World Cup when he was inside the goalie box after a failed clearing attempt by South Korea hit Russia's Andrey Eshchenko in the chest and landed right on Kerzhakov's foot for an easy goal. Russia's defense has played pretty well too with only two goals allowed. One of those tallies came at the 88-minute mark by Belgium, while the other occurred in the opening match when Russia goalie Igor Akinfeev let a seemingly harmless South Korea shot go right through his hands. Russia has lost time of possession in both of its matches, but only by small margins (52% to 48% and 53% to 47%). Russia has also been disciplined enough to not get whistled for any offsides, and have committed only 24 fouls so far, incluidng a pair of yellow cards to midfielders Oleg Shatov and Denis Glushakov.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Belgium tries to clinch Group H Thursday vs. South Korea
By: Brian Graham - StatFox


2014 WORLD CUP SOCCER

SOUTH KOREA vs. BELGIUM

Kickoff: Thursday, 4:00 p.m. EDT
Arena Corinthians – Sao Paulo, Brazil

Line:
Belgium -140, South Korea +350, Tie +295
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over -105, Under -125)

Group H play concludes on Thursday with heavily-favored Belgium needing only a draw with desperate South Korea to win the group.

South Korea was pummeled 4-2 versus Algeria in their most recent game, but still have a mathematical chance at advancement due to a 1-1 tie earned in the tournament opener. But the Taeguk Warriors need to beat the Red Devils by at least three goals and hope that Russia beats Algeria in a game played simultaneously with this one. Belgium, which won both of its matches so far (2-1 versus Algeria and 1-0 over Russia), needs only a draw to assure themselves of being the group champion, and a they could still take Group H with a loss combined with an Algeria defeat or draw.

South Korea held the possession advantage against both Russia (52% to 48%) and Algeria (54% to 46%), but has been outshot 31-19 in the World Cup, including 18-12 in shots on goal. They didn't attempt a single shot during the first half of their loss to Algeria. The Taeguk Warriors have been very disciplined this tournament with only one offsides call and just 20 fouls committed, compared to 31 fouls for their opponents. However, South Korea has amassed five yellow cards already with defenseman Lee Yong and midfielder Han Kookyoung picking up cards versus Algeria to join forward Son Heung-min and midfielders Ki Sung-yueng and Koo Ja-Cheol all getting booked in the World Cup opener. Hueng-min and Ja-Cheol were the goal scorers versus Algeria and will try to spend most of their time in the Belgium half of the field for a Taeguk Warriors team desperate to tally at least three goals on Thursday.

Belgium has a pedestrian three goals in two World Cup matches -- all from substitute players (midfielders Marouane Fellaini, Dries Mertens and forward Divock Origi), but they have created several great chances with 27 total shots, and 17 of those winding up on net. The Red Devils have also held a possession advantage in each game, with 65% possession versus Algeria and 53% against Russia. But they have also been extremely dangerous with their challenges with 34 fouls and three yellow cards issued to midfielder Axel Witsel and defensemen Toby Alderweireld and Jan Vertonghen. But Belgium's defense remains top-notch, with the only goal allowed this tournament coming off a penalty kick as the result of Vertonghen's silly decision to grab his opponent by the arm in the box. Center back Vincent Kompany was able to play through a groin injury in the last match, and is virtually 100 percent healthy for Thursday. As the leader of his team's great counter-attack, Kompany will play a big role in determining the fate of Group H.