6-26-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Aquino

Advantage MLB - Houston, Washington


Today's Selections

MLB: Twins/Angels Over 8.5

Tigers/Rangers Over 9.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Major League Baseball's TOP 13 'Under' Pitchers for 2014
By Victor King

We're almost three full months into a profitable 2014 Major League Baseball season for King Creole. And it's time for the TOTALS TEAM to take a look at this season's TOP starting pitchers... and their OU tendencies. On Monday, we covered the Top 15 'OVER' pitchers. Today, we'll take a look at the hurlers who have delivered consistent and profitable 'UNDER' results so far in the 2014 season. To make it on our list, these pitchers must have at least 10 starts under their belts. And these pitchers are ALL currently active in their respective 5-man starting rotations.

#1 / CHRIS YOUNG / Seattle Mariners / 3-10-1 O/U

The 35-year old veteran pitcher from Dallas, Texas has been pitching in the National League the past seven seasons. His return to the American League has resulted in a great 2014 season... and he stands as the clear-cut UNDER 'King' of Major League Baseball with a 3-10-1 O/U record and an ERA of only 3.23. He has not gone OVER the Total in a game since the middle of May! Since then, he's gone a perfect 0-7 O/U in his last 7 starts. He's been virtually untouchable in his 'Pitchers Park' home games... going a perfect 0-6-1 O/U this season with an ERA of 2.23. He's an automatic UNDER pitcher in these games. But sharp Totals Players would be prudent to lay off him when he's on the road (3-4 O/U / 4.50 ERA). We're gonna definitely see a handful of pitchers on this list that have the misfortune of being on teams with bad offenses.

#2 / JAKE PEAVY / Boston Red Sox / 4-12 O/U

With 12+ Major League seasons under his belt, Peavy's 2014 numbers of a 1-6 record and 4.93 is nothing to write home about. Especially alarming is the fact that he's already given up 16 home runs this year in 98 innings pitched. So what's the reasons for his UNDER-whelming 2014 season? First off, his offensively-challenged Boston Red Sox team is 29-46-3 O/U this year. The #2 UNDER team in all of Baseball right behind the San Diego Padres. Boston has averaged only 3.1 offensive runs per game in Peavy's 16 starts. At home this year, Peavy has gone a nearly-perfect 1-7 O/U. He's in the same situation as Chris Young. We'll look for him to continue his UNDER success at home... but we'll lay off him when he takes to the road (especially with an ERA of 6.00 when playing the role of visitor).

#3 / ANDREW CASHNER / San Diego Padres / 3-9 O/U

With an offense that's as dysfunctional as ANY in Major League Baseball, we knew it wouldn't take long for a San Diego Padres hurler to make it to the top of the UNDER list. When you factor in a dominant stat line in 2014, then it's full speed ahead for Andrew Cashner UNDERS. San Diego is (obviously) the #1 team in MLB when it comes to low-scoring games (25-49-4 O/U). Their average of only 3.1 offensive RPG is a full half run lower than ANY other team in all of Baseball (next lowest scoring team is Atlanta, as 3.6 RPG). So we already know that expecting consistent run support would be fruitless. After a great 2013 season in which he had an ERA of 3.09, Cashner has come into his own this season. His current ERA of 2.36 is 4th best of all full-time starters in the National League (behind Cueto, Wainwright, and Beckett).

#4 / TYSON ROSS / San Diego Padres / 4-11-1 O/U

No surprise here. Another San Diego starting pitcher. You can take most of what you see in the previous paragraph... and apply it here as well. Last year was Ross' first in the National League, and he finished with a sparking ERA of 3.17. During this 2014 season, Ross has picked up right where he left off. The 27-year old from Berkeley, California has a YTD ERA of 3.22 and has gone UNDER in 75% of his starts. He's done even better at home (no surprise there as well), with a 1-6-1 O/U record... and an ERA of 2.36. He's gone a perfect 0-8-1 O/U when tabbed as a favorite this season, and has gone UNDER in each of his last five starts.

#5 / ALFREDO SIMON / Cincinnati Reds / 4-11 O/U

Simon was signed as an amateur free agent back in 1999. His first four seasons were all in the AL with the Baltimore Orioles. And he was pretty bad back then (ERA of 5.17). But since heading to the National League, he's been a dominant pitcher for the Cincinnati Reds. His ERA in 2012 was 2.66 and in 2013 it was 2.87. But that was as a reliever. This season, he made the jump to the Reds' starting rotation and hasn't looked back. In 15 starts, he's tied with Adam Wainwright for the MOST wins in the NL (10)... and has an ERA of 2.92 to boot. He started this season with Unders in EACH of his first six starts (0-6 O/U). Since then, he's come back down to earth slightly (4-5 O/U). He's had solid UNDER success at home (2-4 O/U)... and on the road (2-7 O/U). His best work has been in his eight daytime starts (1-7 O/U).

#6 / JULIO TEHERAN / Atlanta Braves / 4-11-1 O/U

The 23-year old from Cartagena, Columbia is only in his 2nd full-time season as a starting pitcher for the Atlanta Braves. Last year, he made 30 starts... had a slick K/BB ratio of 3.8 to 1 (170 strikeouts / only 45 walks)... and an ERA of 3.20. Teheran has improved on those numbers so far this season, with a K/BB ratio of 4.1 to 1... and an ERA of only 2.41. As a result, he's gone UNDER in 73% of his starts. It also hasn't hurt his low-scoring numbers that he's saddled with the 2nd worst offense in all of Major League Baseball (Braves average only 3.6 offensive RPG). No run support here! Since April, his Atlanta teammates have backed him with only 2.8 runs per game. He's been an extremely consistent UNDER pitcher regardless of the situation. 2-6 O/U at home... 2-5-1 O/U on the road. With a K/BB ratio of 48 to 7 in his last seven starts... this is one pitcher in which we will never go OVER the Total with this season.

#7 / J.A. HAPP / Toronto Blue Jays / 3-7 O/U

This southpaw hurler had a solid 4-year start to his career with the Philadelphia Phillies from 2007 to 2010. But he regressed after being traded to the Houston Astros in the multiplayer deal for Roy Oswalt. He was then was acquired from Toronto in the massive 10-player trade with the Houston back in 2012. Since arriving in the American League, he's had an ERA of 4.60. It hasn't been much better this season. Injuries to the Blue Jays starting rotation thrust Happ into the picture back in early May. Since then, he's gone 6-4 with an ERA of 4.92. And he;s gone UNDER in 70% of his starts. He's coming in off his worst outing of the year, as he allowed 8 runs in 4 innings in a 11-1 loss to the Cincinnati Reds. A few more shaky outings like that, and it might be back to the minor leagues for Happ. We'll keep looking to go UNDER when he's at home, where he has gone 0-5 O/U so far this season

#8 / HISASHI IWAKUMA / Seattle Mariners / 3-7 O/U

Iwakuma has had a similar start to the 2014 season as Happ. Injuries to the Seattle rotation opened up a starting slot for Iwakuma in early May. But unlike Happ, the 33-year old from Japan has looked dominant at times for the Mariners. In fact, his 3-year career has been outstanding. He had an ERA of 3.16 in 2012 and an ERA of 2.66 last year. So far in 2014, he's gone UNDER in 70% of his starts with an ERA of 3.04. When it comes to strikeout-to-walk ratios, it doesn't get much better than Iwakuma. Through 10 starts, he has 52 K's and only 7 walks. That's 7.4 'punchouts' for every 'free pass'! And sharp UNDER Totals Players know that the less walks a pitcher has, the less likely that they'll get burned by a multi-run inning. Despite going 2-4 at home this season, FIVE of those six Iwakuma starts DID go Under the Total. That's where we will continue to ride him.

#9 / IAN KENNEDY / San Diego Padres / 5-11 O/U

By now, you know the story. It would probably be smart (and profitable) to play EVERY SINGLE San Diego Padres game Under the Total for the remainder of the season. Heck, if you played $200 on every Padre game UNDER thus far, you'd be up +$4300.00! So everything we mentioned earlier in regards to Cashner and Ross also applies to Ian Kennedy.... EXCEPT one. While Cashner and Ross did all their heavy lifting in regards to Under results at HOME this season, the opposite is true for the 29-year old from Huntington Beach, California. Kennedy has gone 5-4 O/U in his home starts (with an ERA of 4.19). But he's gone a perfect 0-7 O/U in his seven ROAD starts this season, with an ERA of 3.53. He's also gone 1-7 O/U in his daytime starts... as opposed to 4-4 O/U at night.

#10 / BUD NORRIS / Baltimore Orioles / 5-9 O/U

After five seasons in the National League, Bud Norris was traded from Houston to the Baltimore Orioles in 2013 (for outfielder LJ Hoes). His first season in the American League resulted in a 4.80 ERA in nine starts. Norris has improved those numbers dramatically in 2014, with an ERA (3.62) that more than a full run less than last year. In his road starts, he hasn't been very special (4.82 ERA). But he has embraced his new surroundings, going 5-1 at HOME this year with a brilliant ERA of only 2.12. And FIVE of those six home starts have gone Under the Total. The other aspects that have helped him to go UNDER 64% of the time are the OU tendencies of his current team. The Orioles are currently the BEST home 'Under' team in all of Major League Baseball... with a record of 11-23-1 O/U (only 7.1 runs per game).

#11 / GARRETT RICHARDS / Los Angeles Angels / 5-9-1 O/U

Hometown boy makes good. Richards was selected by the LA Angels in the first round of the 2009 amateur draft. His first two seasons in Anaheim were nothing to write home about (5.79 and 4.69 ERA in 2011 and 2012 respectively). He showed some progress last season in 17 starts with an improved ERA of 4.16. And he's made a BIG improvement so far in 2014. Richards has gone 11-4 in his 15 team starts with an ERA of only 2.79. He's been a better pitcher on the road (1.84 ERA / 3-6 O/U) than a home (4.05 ERA / 2-3-1 O/U). That's not surprising given the fact that the Angels are the #3 OVER team at home this year (21-14-3 O/U). Richards has been especially sharp as of late. He's allowed one or less earned runs in EACH of his last four starts (ERA of 0.67!). So right NOW is the best time to keep 'Going LOW'.

#12 / ERIC STULTS / San Diego Padres / 5-9-2 O/U

Enough said! I think we ALL finally 'get it' when it comes to San Diego Padre starting pitchers. Go LOW... or lay off. Even a guy with a year-to-date ERA of 5.49 is a good Under candidate when he's pitching for this dysfunctional offensive team.

#13 / YORDANO VENTURA / Kansas City Royals / 5-9 O/U

As good as advertised. That would be ROOKIE starting pitcher Yordano Ventura of the Royals. He dominated in spring training, and as a result... I drafted him in my American League-only fantasy baseball league. And I'm as pleased in his first year's results as the Royals are. He's gone UNDER the Total in 65% of his starts with a great ERA of 3.20. The 23-year old from the Dominican Republic was signed by Kansas City as an amateur free agent in 2008. He's had 10 Quality Starts (6+ innings and 3 or less earned runs) out of 14 so far in 2014. He's allowed 3 or less earned runs 11 times already. Quite frankly, he's the real deal. The only trepidation I have for second-half UNDER success will be how he performs in the 2nd go-round against the teams that he has already faced this season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc's Sports

MLB

The following selection is our 6-unit Game of the Month

6-unit Play Take #967 Detroit Tigers (-120) over Texas Rangers (8:05pm EST)

4-unit Play Take #954 Pittsburgh Pirates (-150) over New York Mets (7:05pm EST)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy

WNBA

Nice 7* Winner yesterday, as we are now 18-12 (60%) on the Season overall and +2900. Let's continue rolling as we continue to have a great Wnba Season (winning 3 straight days and going 8-3-1 over our last 12 Selections)

3-Unit Play. #602. Take Over 162 Atlanta vs. San Antonio (Thursday @ 8:05pm est)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HM Sports

2 late 8th inning bullpen losses for us yesterday

3-6 on the day

remember baseballs a grind - its a long 6 month season

I extended the free card 1 more day for everyone

here is what im on today

Cubs +117
Toronto U10 -117
Miami O8 -107
Mets U8 -108
Angels O8.5 +102
Milw U9.5 -102

SF U7.5 -123 ... this game has 2 starters with L5 games started ERA's over 5.50 each ...yet they open line at 7.5? i would have opened this at 8.5 tells me they are asking for over players.. i wont bite

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy

MLB

3* Toronto Blue Jays RL

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ian Cameron

Toronto at Winnipeg

Free Play: Under 55.5

I am a little puzzled by the move toward the Over this morning with this total getting pounded from 53.5 to as high as 55.5 in many locations. The Winnipeg Blue Bombers have a brand new starting QB in Drew Willy and although he has talent and plenty of potential, we are still talking about someone who was a backup in Saskatchewan for the last couple years and will be making his first start. Toronto has some holes to fill defensively and they also have a new DC in Tim Burke. The Argos lost key veteran CB Pat Watkins while also saying goodbye to DL Khalif Mitchell and two solid LB’s Robert McCune and Marcus Ball. However given Winnipeg’s offensive makeup to start the campaign it shouldn’t be as big of a challenge for the revamped Argos defense.

On the flip side, Toronto's strength is its offense with veteran QB Ricky Ray who in 2013 completed a ridiculous 77% of his passes. The line move suggests bettors feel Toronto’s offense will roll in this matchup but Winnipeg has upgraded their talent on defense and there really is nowhere to go but up. Winnipeg’s new head coach Mike O'Shea came from the Toronto Argos organization as the special teams’ coordinator so he should have a very good idea of what to expect. I don't agree with the total move and even the heavy move on the side with Toronto being bet up from -5 to as high as -7. I am comfortable stepping in with a recommendation on the Under in tonight’s CFL season opener.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Picks Portfolio

MLB

Minnesota Twins +147

Under 8.5 -111 Minnesota Twins/Los Angeles Angels

Washington Nationals -130

Under 9.5 -110 Detroit Tigers/Texas Rangers

Over 6.5 -105 St. Louis Cardinals/Los Angeles Dodgers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS INSURANCE ADJUSTERS

Free Play: Toronto RL -1.5 +120 vs Chicago AL

Thursday 6/26 Service Plays

We almost had the clean sweep again!!!! The RL got us with Baltimore only winning by 1!! 4-1 for the day and add in the free play winner with Atlanta and that makes it a 5-1 day!!! Just what we asked for!! Let's continue this run and build the bank roll!! We also have a 5* play on deck for Saturday!!

MLB

LA Angels RL -1.5 +125

Detroit -120

Washington RL -1.5 +130

Milwaukee RL -1.5 +105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gavazzi MLB

3% Washington -120
4% Milwaukee -1.5 Runs/+110
4% LA Angels -165
5% Detroit Tigers -1.5 Runs/+140

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Under Umpire Streakers

1 Unit #967 DET/TX UN 9.5 -115

Fagan 2 Overs/8 Unders L10gms 80.0%

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Diamond Dog Sports

MLB

Sides

#960 Dodgers 105 (1.5*)
Wainwright/Becket


Totals

#961/962 OVER Giants 7.5 (3*)
Leake/Vogelsong

#965/966 UNDER Blue Jays 10 (2.5*)
Carroll/Happ

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Matt Fargo

Fargo's MLB Thursday Triple Dog Play (THREE MASSIVE Winners)

9* Miami Marlins

9* New York Mets

9* Texas Rangers

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BookieMonsters

POD

Detroit Tigers -113


Money Generator Plays

Houston Astros +100

Cincinnati Reds +105

Los Angeles Dodgers -105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Clement

8* Washington -131

7* Colorado/Milwaukee OVER 9 +105