6-27-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Friday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers


Red Sox at Yankees

Probable Pitchers:
BOS: Workman (1-0, 2.88 ERA)
NYY: Nuno (1-4, 5.88 ERA)

Previous series recap: The Red Sox continue their road trip but switch coasts after posting a 2-5 record at Oakland and Seattle. Boston did win the series finale at Safeco Field on Wednesday, but the Sox are 0-3 in their last three games off a road victory. The Yankees avoided a sweep at Toronto by beating the Blue Jays on Wednesday, 5-3 as short underdogs, as New York snapped a four-game skid.

What to watch for: New York has lost each of Nuno’s last six starts at home, while winning just two of his previous nine outings overall. Since May, the Sox are 1-8 in their past nine road series openers, with the only victory coming at Atlanta in which Boston rallied from a five-run deficit. This season, the Yankees own a 5-2 record against the Red Sox, including a 3-1 mark in the Bronx.

Athletics at Marlins

Probable Pitchers:
OAK: Chavez (6-4, 2.71 ERA)
MIA: DeSclafani (1-2, 7.59 ERA)

Previous series recap: The Athletics split a pair of interleague games with the Mets, capped off by an 8-5 victory at Citi Field on Wednesday as short favorites. The Marlins lost on a walk-off homer in extra-innings last night at Philadelphia to split a four-game set with the Phillies, as Miami is 0-6 in its last six games off a win.

What to watch for: Miami has been dynamic in interleague play this season with an 8-1 record, including a 4-1 mark against AL West foes. After winning eight of his first nine starts, the A’s have split the last six outings made by Chavez, but are 2-0 in his last two trips to the hill. Oakland is making its first trip to South Florida since 2003, as the two teams split six matchups in 2008 and 2011 at O.Co Coliseum.

Angels at Royals

Probable Pitchers:
LAA: Shoemaker (5-1, 3.42 ERA)
KC: Vargas (7-3, 3.16 ERA)

Previous series recap: The Royals haven’t been able to find the magic since a 10-game winning streak earlier this month, dropping six of their past six games. Kansas City was swept by Seattle at home, then lost two of three to the Dodgers, with the lone victory coming over former teammate and Cy Young winner Zack Greinke. The Angels, meanwhile, are on a roll after winning all six games on their recent homestand by sweeping the Rangers and Twins.

What to watch for: The Halos grabbed two of three matchups from the Royals in Anaheim last month, capped off by a late rally to stun Kansas City in the series finale, 4-3. Los Angeles has won each of Shoemaker’s last four starts, while allowing three runs in five innings the last time he faced the Royals in a 7-4 defeat. The Royals have dropped four of Vargas’ previous six home starts, while Kansas City is 2-6 in its last eight home series openers.

Indians at Mariners

Probable Pitchers:
CLE: Bauer (2-3, 4.40 ERA)
SEA: Young (6-4, 3.23 ERA)

Previous series recap: Seattle failed to pull off the sweep of Boston with a one-run loss on Wednesday, snapping a five-game winning streak for the M’s. The Indians ended a four-game losing streak in Wednesday’s 6-1 blowout of the Diamondbacks, splitting the two-game set in Arizona. Cleveland improved to 5-2 in the last seven games in the role as a road favorite, as the Tribe cashed as -130 ‘chalk.’

What to watch for: The Mariners lost five of seven matchups with the Indians last season, but won two of three meetings at Safeco Field. Since a five-game home losing streak earlier this month, the M’s have won five of their past six games at Safeco, while hitting the ‘over’ in the last three contests. In Bauer’s three road starts this season, the Indians have lost all three times, while Cleveland is 0-5 in its past five away series openers.

Reds at Giants

Probable Pitchers:
CIN: Cueto (7-5, 1.86 ERA)
SF: Bumgarner (9-4, 2.63 ERA)

Series recap: The Reds held off the Giants last night, 3-1 to cash as short favorites to pick up their fifth win in the previous six contests. San Francisco’s offense has plated just seven runs in the last four games, while scoring two runs or less three times on this current homestand.

What to watch for: Cueto continues to put up Cy Young numbers for the Reds, but Cincinnati has compiled a 9-7 record in his 16 starts. The Reds have won each of Cueto’s previous three outings, while Cincinnati is 10-3 in its past 13 road contests. The Giants have stumbled to a 4-12 record the last 16 games overall, while Bumgarner has failed to win each of his past two home starts against the Rockies and Nationals.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees

In a series never-lacking-for-hype the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox get it on in the Bronx this weekend. With Boston 1-3 last four in New York's back-yard, 2-5 on this current road swing, 4-12 away during the month of June platting a lowly 2.9 runs/game and 2-11 in road-series openers it's a challenge making a case for the Red Sox in the opener. However, this evening, Red Sox deal with Yankees pitcher Vidal Nuno. The left-hander hasn't won since May 7 and enters Friday on a two-game losing skid tagged for 5 long-ball, 13 runs over 9 1/3 innings of work. Nuno being 0-3 at home with a whopping 7.09 ERA along with a 1-6 TSR over 7 starts we'll roll the dice with Boston in this one.

[golden contender]

GC: MLB Play

T.G.I.F MLB Card has 3 Plays from Perfect system that add up to an amazing 43-0 since 2004. The lead play is the 6* 18-0 Total Of The Month. The other selections include a 12-0 Totals system and the 13-0 Late night power system Play. All plays are 18 games over .500 for the month of June. Free MLB Matinee system play below.


On Friday the free Matinee MLB System play is on the Baltimore Orioles in game 1 of the Double header. Game 932 at 1:05 eastern. Baltimore has won all 3 at home vs Tampa Bay and 7 of the 8 games against Tampa this season. The Rays are hitting under .230 on the road this year and have lost 13 of 17 on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5. Baltimore has won 6 of 9 with a day off and home favorites off a 1 run home favored win that scored 5 or more runs have won 11 of 12 times, vs an opponent like Tampa that is off a home favored win by 2 or more runs and also scored 5 or more runs. A. Colome makes his first start of the season today against a Tough Baltimore lineup. K. Gausman for the Orioles has a 2.74 era and they have won 3 of his 4 starts. One was a solid 6 inning scoreless start vs this same Tampa team. Look for the Baltimore to take the opener today. On Friday we have a Huge MLB Card. All selections for June are 18 games over .500. There are 3 MLB Plays up with Undefeated league wide system that combine to go 43-0 since 2004. The lead is the 18-0 MLB 6* Total of the Month. There is another total that has won all 12 times the last 11 years and a 13-0 Late night power system side. All have a solid analysis and several Powerful angles. You wont see data like this any where else. Jump on now and start the weekend big. For the free play take Baltimore in game 1. GC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTSWAGERS

MLB

Minnesota @ TEXAS

Minnesota/TEXAS over 9½ -106

(Risking 2.12 units - To Win: 2.00)

The Twins just got swept by the Angels but prior to that they had won four in a row. Overall, the Twinkies have scored four runs or more in seven straight games and that figures to continue here against Nick Tepesch. Tepsech posted decent skills in nearly 100 IP of work for Texas in 2013 but found himself in Triple-A after a rough spring. He returned to the rotation in May after Martin Perez went down and the follow-up has been less than inspiring. Tepsech's 4.30 ERA is not only a mirage, so was his 2013's strikeout rate growth, apparently. He doesn't have an over-powering arsenal, and it's reflected in a mediocre 7% swing and miss rate. He's been more wild this season as well, further compounding the damage of his strikeouts drop. He doesn't have a true "out" pitch either. Tepesch was able to utilize his height (6'4") to induce grounders in the past but that hasn't been the case this year, especially over his last six starts in ehich his groundball rate was a mere 35%. More fly-balls is something we love to see when playing overs at Globe Life Park. Although he's just 25, Tepesch's upside seems limited. A 50%/33% quality start/disaster start isn't great and those disasters are becoming more frequent. Tepesch has a 5.40 ERA at home this year, he has an xERA of 5.55 over his last five starts, his BB/K ratio is poor and his time at this level is running out.

Then there’s Kevin (Line Drive) Correia. That’s not his official nickname but let’s call him that because almost every ball hit off him is hit hard. Correia has 42 K’s in 84 innings and his low strikeout rate comes with a fully supported 5% swing and miss rate. Correia has surrendered one run or less in five of his last six starts but it was all lucks, as his 5.06 xERA over that span will attest to. Furthermore, all of those starts with the exception of one against Milwaukee came against the struggling offenses of Chicago (AL), Boston, the Yanks and Blue Jays. Incidentally, in that start against the Crew, Correia was ripped apart for 10 hits and five runs in five frames and in his other starts, his strand rate was 88%. Even with a run of good fortune that will not last, Correia’s ERA is still over 5, his WHIP is 1.46 and his oppBAA is .302. Imagine what will happen when his luck runs out and this park usually exposes the good fortune of bad pitchers. This is a beatable total because these are two of the worst starters in baseball hooking up at an extreme hitter’s park.


Boston @ N.Y. YANKEES

Boston -101 over N.Y. YANKEES

(Risking 2.02 units - To Win: 2.00)

Ask 30 GM's in the majors which starter they would rather invest in, Brandon Workman or Vidal Nuno, and all 30 would choose Workman without hesitation. We'll do the same. Nuno is pitching for the worst Yankees team in the last 15 years and the only reason the Yanks are above .500 is because the AL East is so weak this year. Nuno has started 12 games and has three pure quality starts and one victory. His 50 K's in 67 frames is not supported by his swing and miss rate of 7%. Nuno's swing and miss rate over his last three starts is 4½%. Nuno comes in with a 5.88 overall ERA and a 0-3 record at Yankee Stadium with an ERA of 7.09 and xERA of 6.49. Spotting even a small on the Yanks with Nuno going cannot be recommended.

Brandon Workman is so much better than Nuno right now. Workman is coming off a solid performance against the Indians at Fenway in which he went six full and gave up five hits and two earned runs. The start previously against the Orioles, he threw a one-hit gem in 6.2 innings. Over his past two starts, Workman has allowed just six hits and two earned runs in 12.2 innings while striking out 11 and walking three. In his five starts since being promoted, Workman has not allowed more than three earned runs in any start while posting a BB/K split of 12/28 in 34 innings. It's not his first rodeo either. Workman quietly was fantastic in the second half with Boston in 2013 with 10.2 K's/9 and a 45% groundball rate. Workman's stock is on the rise and now is the time to invest before that occurs. Workman and the Red Sox may be the best value on today's board.


L.A. Angels @ KANSAS CITY

L.A. Angels +100 over KANSAS CITY

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)

If this is the sucker play of the day shame on us. The Angels are red-hot with six straight wins and seven wins in their past eight games. Over that eight-game span the Halos have scored five runs or more in six games, which includes a 5-2 win over Yu Darvish and the Rangers. Additionally, the Angels have defeated the Royals six of the past seven meetings. Matt Shoemaker had four starts in May and made the most of his opportunities with 9K's per nine and a 50% groundball rate, Shoemaker's 3.16 xERA that month gave full support to his actual 3.38 ERA. Shoemaker was even better in June with a BB/K split of 4/31 over four starts covering 27 innings. With an elite 12% swing and miss rate to go along with his strong groundball profile and 2.80 xERA in June, Shoemaker is getting better with each passing month. Pitching for the hottest team in baseball doesn't hurt either.

Meanwhile, after an eye-opening 10-game winning streak the Royals have regressed badly with six losses in their past seven games. Over that span they have scored one run or less four times. Jason Vargas comes in with a solid 3.16 ERA over 16 starts but unlike Shoemaker, Vargas' ERA does not come with full skills support. In fact, Vargas has an xERA of 4.07 and an even worse xERA of 4.24 over his last five starts. Vargas has been greatly aided by an unsustainable 81% strand rate and a puny 2% HR/FB rate. Once that normalizes, his ERA will suffer. Vargas has good control but he only has 73 K's in 108 innings. He's good for 200 fair-to-middling, blandly consumed innings but he's not an ace and he's definitely not as good as his surface stats suggest. Hot versus cold gets the call.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HM Sports

Game 1 TB over 8.5 (early fireworks!) (afternoon game)

Colorado/Milw U9 -115

SF/Cincy O6 -105
Four of last five Bumgarner home starts went over.


Game 2 Balt RL -1.5 +168

NYY -107

NYY/Boston U9 -117
Five of last seven Nuno starts stayed under total.

ATL/Philly O7.5 +107
Teheran is 0-2, 4.64 in his last three starts.
Kendrick is 2-2, 4.78 in his last five starts.
Under is 10-2-1 in last thirteen Teheran starts BUT line is too low today .. add to that in the 1st inning these starters have allowed runs -- Teheran 5 runs-16 starts (3 of last 5); Kendrick 8 runs-15 starts (7 of last 10) .. 2-3 runs in 1st inning wouldnt be a shock

Houston/Detroit O8.5 -108
not the same verlander
Verlander is 0-3, 7.71 in his last four starts.
Peacock is 2-0, 2.93 in his last five starts.
Last eight Verlander starts went over the total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Aquino

Advantage MLB - Baltimore (gm#1), Boston, Oakland, LA Dodgers


Today's Selections

MLB

Athletics/Marlins Over 8
Tigers/Astros Over 8.5


WNBA

Connecticut +4
Sun/Mystics Under 149
Mercury/Fever Under 156
Lynx/Storm Under 148.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ray Dunavant

Tampa Bay Rays +132 Game 1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Williams

Arizona Diamondbacks/San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres -120

The Diamondbacks just haven't been good when Brandon McCarthy is on the hill, going 5-23 in his past 28 outings. They're also just 3-8 in their past 11 trips to San Diego. While the Padres haven't exactly been lighting the world afire lately either, they are 5-2 in their past seven against a right-handed starter and the D-Backs are 4-10 in their past 14 road games and 2-6 in their past eight as a dog.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ecks and Bacon

Ben lee won one and lost two on Thursday in World Cup Soccer winning with $100 Germany-$150 /USA and losing with $100 on the Draw +$200 USA/Germany and $25 USA +$860/Germany.

"Mr Chalk" won (4 in a row) on Thursday in MLB in the National League with the Fightin Phillies -$155/Marlins.

For Friday in MLB in the National League "Mr Chalk" likes the Pirates -$140/Mets.

Ben lee is 5-2 +$175 for week thirty five 158-186-5 -$3281

"Mr Chalk" is 39-33 -$581 for the 2014 MLB season.

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert Ferringo

MLB

3* Under 7.5 Washington Nationals/Chicago Cubs

2* Detroit Tigers -145

1* Washington Nationals -115
1* Pittsburgh Pirates -140
1* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5+105
1* Los Angeles Angels +100
1* Seattle Mariners -105

1* Over 7.5 Atlanta Braves/Philadelphia Phillies

1* Under 8.5 Los Angeles Angels/Kansas City Royals

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy

WNBA

3* #652. Take Washington Mystics -4 over Connecticut Sun(Friday @ 7pm est)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Cash System

extra bonus system for today:

Arizona Diamondbacks / San Diego Padres UNDER 6½ (Bet Level 2) (Total Runs Scored) (MLB Baseball) - Game Starts at 10:10 PM EST

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog Sports

Complimentary MLB Pick for June 27th, 2014

Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Time: Friday 06/27 10:10 PM Eastern
Pick: St. Louis +132 (moneyline) at 5Dimes

The St. Louis Cardinals have gotten better pitching than any other team over the past 21 games. The Cardinals' staff has allowed 3 runs or less in 17 of their last 21 games, and those numbers are conducive to finding the win column rather frequently. They have also turned in five shutouts in the 21 games. The Dodgers have gotten great pitching of their own as they have allowed just 2.1 runs per game over their last 10. Carlos Martinez has had success as a starter, and last year out of the pen in the playoffs he limited LA to 1 hit in 4.1 innings of work. The Cards have been a top team off a loss where they are 35-16 in their last 51. Ryu has been strong on the hill for LA, but when he pitches on regular four days rest the Dodgers are just 3-7 in his last 10 starts. Go with the hot arms of the Cardinals.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GamingToday's Consensus Picks

MLB

912 Los Angeles Dodgers -150: The boys in blue closing in on the slumping Giants. They beat the Cards 1-0 last night and the dodger pitching will shut them down again tonight as the Dodgers look to win their fourth straight game.


932 Baltimore Orioles -160 (GAME 1 OF A DOUBLE HEADER): The O’s have won all three home games against the Rays and have gone 7-1 against them this year.


920 Baltimore Orioles -120: Game two of the double header as we go for the sweep.


925 Los Angeles Angels EVEN: The “tribe” continue to try and close the gap on the division leading A’s as they look for their 7th straight win.


930 Miami Marlins +135: Nice dog play here as Miami has gone 13-1 in their last 14 interleague games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Daily wager with Weekend Warrior
by Mark Mayer

MLB

916 Toronto Blue Jays -165

The Blue Jays beat Chicago easily last night 7-0 in Toronto and hit the White Sox with knuckleballer RA Dickey.