6-28-14

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MLB

Saturday, June 28


What trend was hot on the diamond Friday night?

Underdogs against the runline were impressive once again in Major League Baseball action Friday night.

Dogs put up a 12-4 record last night, hitting at a remarkable 75 percent.

Road dogs were even more impressive going 8-2, while home dogs went 4-2.

Underdogs are still hitting over 60 percent of the time for the season.


Dodgers' SS Hanley Ramirez, questionable Saturday

Ramirez is dealing with shoulder irritation and has missed the last four games. He underwent an MRI that revealed no serious damage and he is questionable to play in Saturday's game against the Cardinals.


Blue Jays' RF Jose Bautista, questionable Saturday

Bautista has a Grade 1 hamstring strain and has missed the last five games. He questionable to play Saturday against the White Sox.


Mets' 3B David Wright, out Saturday

Wright didn't play Friday due to a shoulder injury. He will fly back to New York for an MRI and is expected to sit out the weekend against the Pirates.


Red Sox pitcher keeping Yankees at bay

The Boston Red Sox will be sending Jon Lester to the mound against the New York Yankees Saturday and under bettors should rejoice. In Lester's last five starts in New York has seen the under pay-out four times.

Lester has applied a bend, but don't break mentality giving up an average of seven hits per game at Yankee Stadium while only allowing two runs per game.


Indians pitcher terrible against good teams

The Cleveland Indians will send Josh Tomlin to the mound against the Seattle Mariners Saturday. Totals bettors take note, as in Tomlin's last five starts against a team with a winning record has seen the total get topped.

Tomlin has given up an average of six hits per game and three runs in these games, but has been chased before the sixth inning four times. The Cleveland Indians bullpen then gets abused with the games averaging 12.4 runs.


Padres pitcher could find gem against Diamondbacks

San Diego Padres' Eric Stults does not have much to be happy about this season with his 5.49 ERA and 2-10 record. However, he will be looking for a solid outing against the Arizona Diamondbacks who he has helped stay under the total in seven of his last eight starts against.

Stults allows a mere five hits and slightly over two runs per game on average against the D-Backs. Stults and the opposing pitcher has kept teams to an average of six runs per game.


Angels sending winless pitcher to the mound

Hector Santiago has not shown a lot to be confident in his starts this season. In Sintiago's nine starts this season for the Los Angeles Angels, the team has gone 1-8. In Santiago's last four starts he has given up 15 runs, an average of 3.75 runs per game.

Santiago will take to the mound versus the Kansas City Royals Saturday.


Indians RHP Masterson scratched from start

Cleveland Indians right-hander Justin Masterson will miss his scheduled start Sunday at the Seattle Mariners due to right knee soreness, according to the Cleveland Plain Dealer.

Masterson, who has struggled this season after a breakout year in 2013, said he has been dealing with knee pain since his second start of the year.

Masterson has a 5.03 ERA and has issued 50 walks in 93 innings.

The Indians will need to recall a pitcher from Triple-A Columbus to start in place of Masterson on Sunday. Left-hander T.J. House is a candidate to fill that role.

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Paul Leiner

100* Royals -130
50* White Sox -115

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Scott Spreitzer
BAL (-125), 3* Daytime Grand Slam triple-dime bet
CIN (+107) Road Warrior double-dime bet

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Matt Fargo's MLB TRIPLE DOG PLAY

9* (963) St. Louis Cardinals
9* (968) San Diego Padres
9* (981) Cleveland Indians

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UFC Odds and Picks
By: Hugh Citron
Sportingnews

LAS VEGAS -- This Saturday night from San Antonio, Tex., the UFC gives us a key fight in the featherweight division between Cub Swanson and Jeremy Stephens (coverage starts at 7 p.m. ET, main event at 10 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1). Swanson is about a -260 favorite to get his sixth straight win, with Stephens catching around +210 odds as the underdog.

Swanson (20-5) with a win here could line himself up with a title shot later this year against Jose Aldo. Surely Swanson would love a chance to avenge a 2009 loss to Aldo in WEC, where he was KOed early in the first round.

Cub's last performance, in July 2013, might have been one of his best, as he was able to get a third-round stoppage over always-tough Dennis Siver in a fight that garnered fight of the night honors. A KO win over highly-regarded Ross Pearson is also among his five-bout winning streak.

For Stephens (23-9), this is another shot to get back into the picture in the loaded 145-pound division. Stephens is on a three-fight winning streak of his own after suffering three losses in a row before that.

But don’t put too much into those losses – they came against very tough lightweights, including champion Anthony Pettis and Donald Cerrone. While the drop to 145 pounds has seemed to make all the difference for Stephens, his wins haven’t exactly been against the best in the division.

The Linemakers' lean: At this weight, rounds are usually very close and hard to score, which makes laying a big price a risky proposition, but the lean here is toward Swanson. He's just the better of the two fighters at this moment.

Look for a fight that might not go the distance, as both fighters – win or lose – will want to impress in this main event as a guys who bring the action. If that’s the way the fight goes, look for Swanson to take Stephens out somewhere around the third round.

Laying the favorite looks like the way to go Saturday night.

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Brazil vs. Chile Betting Preview and Pick
By: Phil Kitromilides

The first match of the World Cup's knockout stages is without doubt the game of the round as hosts Brazil face a Chile side who have been one of the most enjoyable to watch in the tournament so far.

La Roja disposed of reigning champions Spain before succumbing to a slightly harsh 2-0 defeat to Netherlands and, if we have learned one thing from seeing Jorge Sampaoli's side play, it is that they will without doubt give it a go.

Yet they are clear underdogs, with the LVH SuperBook offering them at +525 odds to win in 90 minutes.

Brazil, meanwhile, who began to look the part in their final group game against Cameroon, are available at -185, and the draw priced at +310.

More World Cup betting info: Goal.com has you covered

With Chile possessing an exciting, attacking brand of football and Brazil capable of turning on the style, it seems only likely that we should expect goals.

OVER 2.5 goals is offered at -130 at the LVH, but more tempting is the price of -120 for both teams to score, which seems a little generous.

Most people would expect Brazil to find the back of the net in 90 minutes (despite failing to do so against Mexico) so logic therefore dictates that we are taking the price of -120 for Chile to score and, when put like that, it becomes even more appealing.

La Roja were the second highest scorers in South American qualifying and put two past a shell-shocked Spain in Group B.

They are a side who create plenty of chances and, if they can take just one of them, this should prove to be a profitable selection.

Bet of the day: Both teams to score at -120.

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ADVANCED SPORTS INVESTMETS

SOCCER
PERRY’S SELECTIONS
(June Results -2.20)
FIFA WORLD CUP
1x- Brazil -185 Chile (12pm)
1x- URUGUAY/COLOMBIA – OVER 2 -133 (4PM)

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RIVER CITY SHARPS

The Mariners took the series opener 3-2 on Friday night and the Indians will try and even up this series tonight sending Josh Tomlin (4-5, 4.39) to the mound. He will be opposed by Seattle’s Roenis Elias (7-5, 3.74) who has been really good for the Mariners over his last couple of starts, going 2-0 with a 1.32 ERA in those outings. While Tomlin is in the midst of a personal three-game losing streak, he has traditionally pitched well against the Mariners and particularly at Safeco. Tomlin has posted a 3-1 record in his career starts vs. Seattle and at Safeco, he is 3-0 with a 3.05 ERA. With all of that under consideration, there are some pretty strong trend lines leading us to the home team here tonight. The Indians are 3-13 in their last 16 road games vs. a left-handed starter and 1-7 in Tomlin’s last eight starts as an underdog. The Mariners are really playing good baseball right now, 6-1 over their last seven games and 9-3 in their last 12 games. Another thing to look at in this matchup is the fact that Kyle Seager is red hot right now for the Mariners and he has enjoyed pretty good success against Tomlin, where he is 4-6 in those matchups. We will ride the hot pitcher at home at a reasonable price against the team that can’t get out of their own way on the road. The Sharps say…

3 UNITS – SEATTLE MARINERS (-119)

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HALL OF FAME PICKS / William Holloway

Brewers(-168)
The Rockies have lost 10 of 11 and being on the road to the Brewers (one of the best teams in baseball), where they are 0-5 this season doesn’t help their chances of winning.

Tigers(-135)
The Tigers should bounce back after a loss last night(which I stayed away from after releasing them for 3 of the 8 straight wins we have). They are sending one of the top pitchers to the mound in Scherzer while Keuchel(Astros) is 0-2 with a 5.54 ERA in his last two starts.

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SHAKER’S SHORTS

#971 LA Angels – Team Total OVER 3.5 -130: We got some high Vig on the 3.5 but it has to be set at this number based on the Game of total of 8.5 and the Royals being a mid-range favorite to win here. I would actually rather have the 4 at a betting Price but it is what it is. Ventura is off two High Pitch counts and he also possesses one of the worst GB Ratios in the Big’s. That’s not so good for him facing the Angels who can and do hit Dingers and a weather pattern favorable for Hitters to do just that. Easy decision here for me.

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Sports Cash System

extra bonus system for today:

New York Yankees -150 over the Boston Red Sox (Bet Level 1) (Money Line Bet) (MLB Baseball) - Game Starts at 7:15 PM EST

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Chris James Sports

Nationals -143 Gm1
Angels +123
Tigers -135
Rockies +147
Braves -115
Giants -114

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SPORTS WAGERS

St. Louis +136 over LOS ANGELES

Lance Lynn is too good to pass up on when being offered a tag like the one here. Lynn has thrown three shutouts over his last six starts and one of those came at that bandbox in Colorado where he allowed three hits in eight innings. Lynn just keeps getting better and with another tweak or two he could become a top-3 starter in the entire league. Last September, he was MLB’s most effective starter. Back in spring training of this year, Lynn was the most dominant pitcher in any camp. His 15.1 K’s per nine this past spring was 20% higher than any other SP with at least 15 IP. Lynn’s Achilles Heel in the past has been struggles against LH hitters. He’s taken a giant leap against them this season while same-sided bats have very little chance against him. Lynn has a 60% groundball rate on three of pitches but his 28% groundball rate on his four-seamer makes his overall GB rate of 45% look average. A tweak there, a tweak against lefties and Lance Lynn will absolutely dominate. He’s close, as he’s improved in both areas, he has a 2.90 ERA overall and he’ll face a Dodgers lineup that will likely only have two left-handed bats in the lineup.

Zach Greinke has an almost identical 2.89 ERA as Lynn. In terms of skills, there really isn’t much that separates these two starters. Greinke has more K’s and a higher strikeout rate but he has a higher WHIP than Lynn. Still, Greinke has few weaknesses and remains one of the best in the game. However, Lynn is also one of the best and he’s not the one spotting a significant tag. Once again we turn to value, as Lance Lynn is very capable of throwing a gem and defeating any team at any time. Overlay.


KANSAS CITY/L.A. Angels Over 8½

The Angels’ bats reamined hot last night with another six runs in the opener of this series. L.A. has now scored six runs or more in L.A. has now scored six runs or more in four straight and five runs or more in seven of their past nine games. Extending that streak against Yordano Ventura is a distinct possibility. Ventura is showing serious signs of fatigue. In April he struck out 31 batters in 30 frames and in May he whiffed 28 batters in 27.1 innings. However, his K rate in June is way down with just 14 K’s in 27 frames. Ventura is coming off back-to-back games in which his pitch count was over 100. This will be the second time this season that he’ll start after successive pitch counts of 100 or more and the last time it happened back on May 15 and May 20, Ventura was whacked by the Astros in his subsequent start. Ventura’s xERA over his past six starts is 3.89 and he’ll now face one of the hottest hitting teams in the majors.

The Royals scored eight last night and this strong hitting lineup takes a big step down in class here. Hector Santiago returned to the Angels rotation on June 10 after a brief stint with Triple-A Salt Lake where posted a disastrous 6.43 ERA over three starts (14 IP). Santiago has yet to win a game as an Angel (0-7) and has struggled with his control with four walks every nine innings he pitches. Santiago has one of the worst groundball/line-drive/fly-ball splits in the league at 30%/27%/43% and he has just two quality starts in nine tries this season. Hector Santiago is rotation filler for now. His chronically shaky control and high fly-ball and line-drive rates give him a high blow-up risk while his fastball speed has declined for three straight years. Santiago’s surface stats (which aren’t that great to begin with) disguise some of his brutal skills but a monkey dressed in silk is still a monkey. Expect some crooked innings from both these offenses.


Cincinnati +106 over SAN FRANCISCO

Matt Cain’s xERA never bought into his sub-3.00 ERAs in 2011 and 2012 and it has finally caught up to him. Over his last 42 starts which cover 30 starts last year and 12 this year, Cain’s ERA is 4.41. Cain has surrendered eight jacks over his last seven starts. At AT&T he is 1-3 with an ERA of 4.50. He’s coming off a home start against the weak hitting Padres that saw him surrender six runs in seven innings. His skills with runners on and have been horrible (4.5 K’s/9, 4.1 BB/9, 38% groundball rate) and only a tiny 19% with runners on has prevented further damage. Cain and the struggling Giants are too big a risk to trust as the chalk.

Alfredo Simon has walked five batters and struck out 22 over his last 34 innings. An elite 16% swing and miss rate over his last three starts strongly suggest an uptick in strikeouts is forthcoming. Simon’s skills are all trending the right way. His groundball rate is up from 35% to 50% over his last five starts and his WHIP has dropped to 1.09. In 15 starts this season, Simon’s 13 pure quality starts represents the best quality start % of any pitcher in the NL with 10 or more starts. The Reds are hot with three wins in a row and six wins in their last seven games and this is a great opportunity for them to keep it going.

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MYSYSTEMPICKS

Brazil -1 -118 (2u)

Mariners -117 (2*)
White Sox -115 (2*)
Rockies +148 (1.5*)

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Dave Essler | MLB RunLine

dime bet – 961 COL 1.5 (-130) vs 962 MIL