Tweet
SPORTS WAGERS
Montreal +7½ over CALGARY
Many football bettors in college, NFL and CFL like to wait two or three weeks to get a read on teams before making a wager. The problem with that is you lose value wagering against overpriced teams and you lose value passing up on underpriced teams. The market catches up in a real hurry and that’s why the first week or two in any sport provides great opportunity, as we saw with the CFL opener on Thursday. Calgary was an offensive power last year and its defense was rock solid as well. The Stamps finished the year with a 14-4 record in the always tough West Division. The Stamps had the best record in the CFL but they lost their final game of the year to the Lions, 26-7, and they were subsequently whacked in their only playoff game by Saskatchewan 35-13. Calgary lost its final two games of 2013 by a combined score of 61-20 and they didn’t make any major changes this year. The Stamps looked flat in the preseason with a three-point win over Winnipeg followed by a 37-13 loss to B.C. in the season tune-up one week ago. After that last preseason game the Stamps had to choose a starting QB and they have chosen to start Bo-Levi Mitchell over Drew Tate. Both QB’s have been inconsistent and while they’ve both had their moments, both are also unproven. Every team in this league has weapons and the Stamps are no exception but we just don’t see where they are superior to the Alouettes. Calgary’s 14-4 record from last year has them overpriced to begin this year.
We much prefer a team with a strategy firmly in place to one that waits until after the final pre-season game to name its starting QB. Montreal named Troy Smith their starting QB the first day of training camp and they haven’t looked back since. Smith is a former Heisman winner that went on to play for three different NFL teams over five seasons. Smith was solid in his limited CFL action after taking over late last year and he figures to be much better this year. Smith is also mobile and that adds another dimension to his game. In February, the Als hired Tom Higgins as their new coach. Higgins had served as the CFL's Director of Officiating since 2008 but has plenty of previous coaching experience, posting a 72-53-1 record with Edmonton and Calgary from 2001-2007. He made the playoffs in all seven of those seasons and his Eskimos hoisted the Grey Cup in 2003. Higgins knows this game well and he knows how to prepare as well as anyone. If he didn’t like what he saw, he would have not signed up for this gig. Montreal is loaded with perhaps the best receiving corps in the league. Each receiver is more dangerous than the next so opposing defenses will not be able to hone in on any one receiver. The Als defense, which was young and inexperienced a year ago started coming on towards the end of last year. The hope is that such a large turnover from last season will allow for more chemistry and cohesion in 2014. Montreal had an off year in 2013 with an 8-10 record but they came on late and made the playoffs. The Als don’t “rebuild”, instead they make good personnel decisions every year and they compete at a high level. This is a model franchise that is talented and prepared and that should not be receiving this many points in the first game of the season.
NOTE: We’re passing on the B.C./Edmonton game. Given the choice, we would rather spot the points and play the favorite.
Montreal +7½ over CALGARY
Many football bettors in college, NFL and CFL like to wait two or three weeks to get a read on teams before making a wager. The problem with that is you lose value wagering against overpriced teams and you lose value passing up on underpriced teams. The market catches up in a real hurry and that’s why the first week or two in any sport provides great opportunity, as we saw with the CFL opener on Thursday. Calgary was an offensive power last year and its defense was rock solid as well. The Stamps finished the year with a 14-4 record in the always tough West Division. The Stamps had the best record in the CFL but they lost their final game of the year to the Lions, 26-7, and they were subsequently whacked in their only playoff game by Saskatchewan 35-13. Calgary lost its final two games of 2013 by a combined score of 61-20 and they didn’t make any major changes this year. The Stamps looked flat in the preseason with a three-point win over Winnipeg followed by a 37-13 loss to B.C. in the season tune-up one week ago. After that last preseason game the Stamps had to choose a starting QB and they have chosen to start Bo-Levi Mitchell over Drew Tate. Both QB’s have been inconsistent and while they’ve both had their moments, both are also unproven. Every team in this league has weapons and the Stamps are no exception but we just don’t see where they are superior to the Alouettes. Calgary’s 14-4 record from last year has them overpriced to begin this year.
We much prefer a team with a strategy firmly in place to one that waits until after the final pre-season game to name its starting QB. Montreal named Troy Smith their starting QB the first day of training camp and they haven’t looked back since. Smith is a former Heisman winner that went on to play for three different NFL teams over five seasons. Smith was solid in his limited CFL action after taking over late last year and he figures to be much better this year. Smith is also mobile and that adds another dimension to his game. In February, the Als hired Tom Higgins as their new coach. Higgins had served as the CFL's Director of Officiating since 2008 but has plenty of previous coaching experience, posting a 72-53-1 record with Edmonton and Calgary from 2001-2007. He made the playoffs in all seven of those seasons and his Eskimos hoisted the Grey Cup in 2003. Higgins knows this game well and he knows how to prepare as well as anyone. If he didn’t like what he saw, he would have not signed up for this gig. Montreal is loaded with perhaps the best receiving corps in the league. Each receiver is more dangerous than the next so opposing defenses will not be able to hone in on any one receiver. The Als defense, which was young and inexperienced a year ago started coming on towards the end of last year. The hope is that such a large turnover from last season will allow for more chemistry and cohesion in 2014. Montreal had an off year in 2013 with an 8-10 record but they came on late and made the playoffs. The Als don’t “rebuild”, instead they make good personnel decisions every year and they compete at a high level. This is a model franchise that is talented and prepared and that should not be receiving this many points in the first game of the season.
NOTE: We’re passing on the B.C./Edmonton game. Given the choice, we would rather spot the points and play the favorite.
Comment