6-30-14

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Arthur Ralph Sports

Free Play Mon

Balt.-155

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Monday

Nationals -1.5 +107

Cubs +130

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Hondo

Hondo sunk right to the bottom Sunday with Hudson and the Giants, whose loss to the Reds caused the deficit to expand to 1,430 pateks.

Monday night: Mr. Aitch expects Duffy to outduel Pino in the “noire” in Minneapolis — 10 units on the Royals. Also, 10 on the Rangers to clip Ubaldo and the Birds.

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty likes the Rays on Monday.

The deficit is 232 sirignanos.

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BeatYourBookie

MONDAY

MLB BASEBALL


10* Play Oakland +120 over Detroit (MLB TOP PLAY)

Oakland is 21-6 when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs
Oakland is 50-29 when pitching in the 1^st half of the season
Oakland is 26-15 in road games this season


10* Play Cleveland +100 over Los Angeles Dodgers (MLB TOP PLAY)

Corey Kluber is 6-0 when pitching in an inter-league game the last three seasons
Corey Kluber is 8-2 after giving up two or less earned runs in his last two outings
Corey Kluber has an ERA of 1.86 over the last three starts

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5* Play New York Mets +150 over Atlanta (MLB BONUS PLAY)
5* Play Texas +150 over Baltimore (MLB BONUS PLAY)

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XpertPicks

MONDAY BASEBALL

• Play New York Mets +150 over Atlanta----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)

7:00 PM EST

Alex Wood has lost 8 of the last 11 games when the total posted is 7 runs or less and he has lost 9 of the last 14 games vs. division opponents. Alex Wood has lost 6 of the last 9 games when pitching in the 1^st half of the season and he has lost two of the last three starts with an ERA of 4.76.

• Play Texas +150 over Baltimore----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
  7:00 PM EST

Ubaldo Jimenez has lost 19 of the last 30 games when pitching on a Monday and he has lost 12 of the last 16 games when pitching in the 1^st half of the season. Ubaldo Jimenez has lost 9 of the last 12 games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs and he is 0-6 in home games this season with an ERA of 6.28.

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FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball

1000* Play Washington -200 over Colorado (MLB TOP PLAY)

Colorado has lost 79 of the last 123 road games and they have lost 52 of the last 81 games when playing in the month of June.Colorado has lost 55 of the last 93 games vs. NL East Division Opponents and they have lost 87 of the last 137 games after having won five or six of the last seven games.

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50* Play Kansas City -120 over Minnesota (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play New York Yankees -110 over Tampa Bay (MLB BONUS PLAY)

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SPORTSWAGERS

MLB

Tampa Bay @ N.Y. YANKEES

Tampa Bay +102 over N.Y. YANKEES

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.04)

The Rays just went into Baltimore and took three of four this past weekend. They have won four of five and they scored five runs or more in all four of those victories. Tampa has scored five or more in five of its past six and they are certainly playable in New York with Chris Archer going, another thoroughbred from the Rays stable. Archer is just 4-5 but that’s only because of a lack of run support. He comes in with a solid 3.29 ERA, a 48% groundball rate, 86 K’s in 93 innings and a strong 11% swing and miss rate. Archer made good on his pedigree in the 2H of last year and is primed to repeat this year. He already owns one of the top heaters in the game and if he's able maintain some of those control gains, it's reasonable to project a second half of ample Ks and an ERA close to his 2.67 ERA in the second half of last season.

The Yanks remain overvalued and true fade material. They have lost six of eight while scoring one run or less in three of those six losses. David Phelps has a 5.64 ERA over his last five starts and over that stretch his groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate was 37%/26%/37%. Phelps has worked both as a reliever (9 appearances) and out of the rotation (10 games started) and he’s not well suited for either. He has four pure quality starts in 10 tries. His upside is really limited by lack of a dominant pitch, as his fastball barely hits 90 mph. Phelps’ low swing and miss rate of 5% screams out that he’s not going to be striking out too many and therefore it’s very difficult to get out of the jams he invariably gets in. With eroding control, that's a recipe for failure. David Phelps should never be favored over Chris Archer.


L.A. Angels @ CHICAGO

L.A. Angels -1½ +120 over CHICAGO

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)

Hector Noesi has appeared in 81 games since he appeared on the scene in 2011 with 32 of those coming as a starter. His ERA year by year including this year: 4.47, 5.82, 6.59, 5.07 and 4.94. That translates into a career ERA of 5.41 and 36 of Noesi’s appearances occurred when he was a Mariner pitching half his games in an extreme pitcher’s park. Noesi’s career groundball/line-drive/fly-ball is 38%/22%/40% and that is exactly the same as he’s posted this year in 11 starts. In his 32 career starts, he has seven pure quality one’s. Noesi also took abuse at Tacoma (5.83 ERA) last year, which indicates that his promotions were not merit-based. We've seen worse base skills but he needs some extra fastball juice or a more of a groundball lean to take the next step. That’s never happened and we're not optimistic that it will happen. At U.S. Cellular, Noesi is 1-3 with a 5.54 ERA, an xERA of 5.60, a 1.46 WHIP and an oppBA of .308 in 39 innings. He’ll now face one of the hottest hitting teams in the majors.

Garrett Richards has made some significant gains in 2014 and the reason for them can be partially found in his pitch mix. He is throwing two-seam fastballs 30% of the time in 2014 compared to just 7% of the time in 2013. It's a pitch that has limited batters to a .656 OPS and has induced groundballs at an elite 68% rate. Richards has 99 K’s in 101 innings to go along with a 2.76 ERA. Over his last five starts covering 35 innings, Richards’ has whiffed 37 while posting an ERA of 2.31. There are four reasons why this breakout has occurred. 1) Surging groundball rate raises floor and gives him unique skill; 2) 95-mph fastball, solid swing and miss lay foundation for more strikeouts; 3) consistent skills every outing 4) high quality start/disaster start split confirms he's very close to becoming an ace. The Halos should destroy the South Side in this game and nothing more needs to be said.


Pass on Monday's FIFA World Cup games.

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EZWINNERS


4 STAR SELECTION

Game: Los Angeles Angels @ Chicago White Sox

(968) Chicago White Sox +1.5 (-$130)

(Risking $520 to win $400) (Action)



3 STAR SELECTION

Game: New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves

(953) New York Mets +$155

(Risking $300 to win $465) (Action)



3 STAR SELECTION

Game: Texas Rangers @ Baltimore Orioles

(957) Texas Rangers +$135

(Risking $300 to win $405) (Action)

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Chase Diamond

New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves

10* Atlanta Braves -165

This game has the 37-45 Mets at the 44-38 Braves. Braves are off a huge 4 game sweep of the Phillies and now take on another bad team in the Mets. Braves are 7-3 last 10 and should have no problem with the Mets tonight. We have the better pitcher in Alex Wood who is 6-6 with a 3.07 ERA and the better team tonight and the home field advantage. Take the Braves lay the juice for a 10* winner.

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Baseball Betting Report

Another week of baseball is in the books, which means it's time for our weekly betting update.

Hot

The Braves were struggling, but have now bounced back reeling off a smart 6-1 (+$483) week, pushing them out front in the NL East by a half game. Getting great work from the pitching staff the past seven games (2.29 RPG) a three game set at home against lowly Mets who have lost 3 of it's last 4 on the road platting just 2.7 runs/game, there is a shot at a series sweep.

Cincinnati Reds sweeping a four game set at AT&T park have won 6-of-7 on this current road swing stuffing +$609 into betting accounts. Reds complete their road swing with three in San Diego

In the junior circuit, Oakland continued it's winning ways with a 4-1 (+$270) week to earn top spot in the Majors at 51-30 (.630) percentage points ahead of Milwaukee at 51-33 (.607). A's start the week in Detroit which has reeled off an 8-2 stretch crossing 5.4 per/game behind the bats of Kinsler (3 HR, 11 RBI), Martinez (3 HR, 7 RBI) and Cabrera (7 RBI).

Cold

Minnesota outscored 32-19 in losing 5-of-6 (-$391) at LAA and Texas return to Target Field for three against division foe Kansas City Royals who managed a six game split this past week (-$91)

Giants continue to flounder going 1-6 (-$632) this past week outscored 33-12. Overall the Giant funk has reached 4-15 (-$1468) with the club crossing 3.05 per/game, the hurlers giving up 5.00 per/contest. A trip to St. Louis could be the answer at reversing the skid as Cardinals are off a 1-3 (-$415) weekend at L.A. outscored 17-4.

Colorado which went 2-5 (-$254) the past seven days are in the running with Giants for the worst team in baseball as Rockies are now on a 2-11 (-$858) skid thanks in large part to a pitching staff that has given up a whopping 6.85 runs/game (8-3-2 O/U) over the thirteen game span.

O/U

Braves giving up just 2.29 runs/game this past week posted a 1-6 O/U mark with Houston the next best 'Under' play at 1-5 O/U. Colorado pitching staff crushed for 5.3 RPG this past week were 5-1 to the 'Over'.

Noteworthy seasonal situation trends:

Best 'Over' Situation

LAA 5-0 at home off 1 run loss
Colorado 25-14-4 on the road
Milwaukee 12-1 opening a road series
Dodgers 25-14-3 at home


Best 'Under' Situation

Atlanta 9-1 off a 1 run loss (6-0 home)
Dodgers 7-0 away off 1 run loss
Pittsburgh 5-0-1 away off 1 run loss
San Diego 12-1-2 vs lefties
Dodgers 25-16-1 away

Best/Worst Opening a Series
Pittsburgh 10-3 at home
Colorado 4-10 on the road
Arizona 5-10 home
Boston 2-12 away

Best/Worst after One Run Loss
Milwaukee 8-1
White Sox 1-11

Worst after One Run Win
Colorado (1-10), Atros (2-8)

Best/Worst after being blanked
A' (3-0), Cinci (6-1)
Texas (1-3), Arizona (1-6)

Best/Worst vs Left-Handed starter
LAA (11-5) at home
Cleveland 3-13 on the road

Best/Worst Interleague
A's (7-1), San Fran (6-0 home)
Philadelphia (0-4 home), Twins (1-4 home)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Diamond Trends - Monday
By Vince Akins


SU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Twins are 10-0 since June 12, 2011 at home after a win in which their starter pitched at least 8 innings and they allowed at least three hits for a net profit of $1071.


PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- When Jordan Zimmermann starts the Nationals are 11-0 since July 18, 2012 as a 150+ favorite after his team won the last time he started as a 120+ favorite for a net profit of $1100.

MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Dodgers are 1-10-1 OU since July 08, 2011 as a favorite after a 5+ run win and it is the first game of a series.

CHOICE TREND:

-- The Rockies are 0-11 since August 14, 2009 as a 140+ dog after a win in which they had 12+ hits and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1100 when playing against.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

-- The Orioles are 19-2 since July 14, 2012 at home after a 5+ run loss for a net profit of $1745.

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Sports Handicapper King

World Cup Soccer

France -1

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Sports Handicapper King

MLB

Cleveland Indians

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ROBERT FERRINGO (World Cup Soccer)

2* FRA/NGA – OVER 2.5

2* GER -1.5 (-105)