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Game: Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals
Time: Monday 06/30 7:05 PM Eastern
Pick: Washington -1.5 (+100)
The Colorado Rockies have always had a decided advantage when playing at home. This year certainly has been no exception. The Rockies own a 16-27 record on the road, while they have played better than .500 ball at home this season. The difference is the hitting. The Rockies produce an amazing 6.3 runs per game at home, but have fallen flat on the road where they dip to 3.8 runs per game. They will have their hands full tonight with Jordan Zimmermann who has regained his form from a year ago. Zimmermann has allowed just 5 total runs in his last five starts, while pitching to an ERA of 1.18. He has allowed just 23 hits and 5 walks in 38 innings of work. Washington has been coming up big at home where in their last 12 wins at home, 10 of them have come by 2 runs or more. Play Washington on the runline.
Another week of baseball is in the books, which means it's time for our weekly betting update.
Hot
The Braves were struggling, but have now bounced back reeling off a smart 6-1 (+$483) week, pushing them out front in the NL East by a half game. Getting great work from the pitching staff the past seven games (2.29 RPG) a three game set at home against lowly Mets who have lost 3 of it's last 4 on the road platting just 2.7 runs/game, there is a shot at a series sweep.
Cincinnati Reds sweeping a four game set at AT&T park have won 6-of-7 on this current road swing stuffing +$609 into betting accounts. Reds complete their road swing with three in San Diego
In the junior circuit, Oakland continued it's winning ways with a 4-1 (+$270) week to earn top spot in the Majors at 51-30 (.630) percentage points ahead of Milwaukee at 51-33 (.607). A's start the week in Detroit which has reeled off an 8-2 stretch crossing 5.4 per/game behind the bats of Kinsler (3 HR, 11 RBI), Martinez (3 HR, 7 RBI) and Cabrera (7 RBI).
Cold
Minnesota outscored 32-19 in losing 5-of-6 (-$391) at LAA and Texas return to Target Field for three against division foe Kansas City Royals who managed a six game split this past week (-$91)
Giants continue to flounder going 1-6 (-$632) this past week outscored 33-12. Overall the Giant funk has reached 4-15 (-$1468) with the club crossing 3.05 per/game, the hurlers giving up 5.00 per/contest. A trip to St. Louis could be the answer at reversing the skid as Cardinals are off a 1-3 (-$415) weekend at L.A. outscored 17-4.
Colorado which went 2-5 (-$254) the past seven days are in the running with Giants for the worst team in baseball as Rockies are now on a 2-11 (-$858) skid thanks in large part to a pitching staff that has given up a whopping 6.85 runs/game (8-3-2 O/U) over the thirteen game span.
O/U
Braves giving up just 2.29 runs/game this past week posted a 1-6 O/U mark with Houston the next best 'Under' play at 1-5 O/U. Colorado pitching staff crushed for 5.3 RPG this past week were 5-1 to the 'Over'.
Noteworthy seasonal situation trends:
Best 'Over' Situation
LAA 5-0 at home off 1 run loss
Colorado 25-14-4 on the road
Milwaukee 12-1 opening a road series
Dodgers 25-14-3 at home
Best 'Under' Situation
Atlanta 9-1 off a 1 run loss (6-0 home)
Dodgers 7-0 away off 1 run loss
Pittsburgh 5-0-1 away off 1 run loss
San Diego 12-1-2 vs lefties
Dodgers 25-16-1 away
Best/Worst Opening a Series
Pittsburgh 10-3 at home
Colorado 4-10 on the road
Arizona 5-10 home
Boston 2-12 away
Best/Worst after One Run Loss
Milwaukee 8-1
White Sox 1-11
Worst after One Run Win
Colorado (1-10), Atros (2-8)
Best/Worst after being blanked
A' (3-0), Cinci (6-1)
Texas (1-3), Arizona (1-6)
Best/Worst vs Left-Handed starter
LAA (11-5) at home
Cleveland 3-13 on the road
Best/Worst Interleague
A's (7-1), San Fran (6-0 home)
Philadelphia (0-4 home), Twins (1-4 home)
-- The Twins are 10-0 since June 12, 2011 at home after a win in which their starter pitched at least 8 innings and they allowed at least three hits for a net profit of $1071.
PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:
-- When Jordan Zimmermann starts the Nationals are 11-0 since July 18, 2012 as a 150+ favorite after his team won the last time he started as a 120+ favorite for a net profit of $1100.
MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Dodgers are 1-10-1 OU since July 08, 2011 as a favorite after a 5+ run win and it is the first game of a series.
CHOICE TREND:
-- The Rockies are 0-11 since August 14, 2009 as a 140+ dog after a win in which they had 12+ hits and it is the first game of a series for a net profit of $1100 when playing against.
ACTIVE TRENDS:
-- The Orioles are 19-2 since July 14, 2012 at home after a 5+ run loss for a net profit of $1745.
20* MLB Orioles -160 and 10* MLB OVER 9.5
20* MLB Nationals -1.5 and 10* MLB OVER 7.5
20* MLB Padres +115 and 10* MLB UNDER 6.5
20* MLB Dodgers -110 and 10* MLB UNDER 7
20* MLB Mariners -110 and 10* MLB OVER 7.5
Monday card has a 5* MLB Blowout system that is Undefeated and a 91% Road warrior system side. There is also a Play on one of the World Cup matches. June has been solid at 17 games over .500 in all sports. Free MLB Play below.
On Monday the free MLB Play is on the LA. Angels. Game 967 at 8:10 eastern. LA is averaging nearly 6 runs per game the past week and is a solid 27-9 in games where the posted total is 8 to 8.5. The Whitesox are home with no rest off an 11 game road trip which is a tough spot for any team as they travel back home off a road win in Toronto. In fact home dogs in this range off a road dog win that scored 4 or less runs have lost 21 of 28 times since 2004. G. Richards is on the mound for the Angels and he has been superb on the road with a 7-2 record and 1.84 era. In his last 3 starts in era is 1.40. He Will take on Chicago righty Noesi who has lost 9 of 12 at home with a 4.73 era and a 6.75 era vs the LA. Angels. Monday card looks to start the week and end the month big at 17 games over .500 in all sport this month, there is a 100% 5* Blowout system that wins by an average 3 runs per game, a 91% road warrior system and a World Cup selection up. Contact By inbox to Jump on and cash out tonight. For the free MLB Play take the LA. Angels. GC
LAS VEGAS -- We've been waiting all season for the Los Angeles Dodgers to show just how good they are and right on cue, remarkably, in almost the same timeframe of the their incredible run last season, they haven't disappointed. Last season they made up a 9.5-game deficit in the NL West in 30 days. This season, they have made up 9.5 games in the standings in just 21 days.
The Dodgers have won 12 of their last 16 games while the Giants just got swept in a four-game series at home against the Reds, bringing their slide to 15 losses in their last 19 games. The big catalyst of the entire run has been Clayton Kershaw, who not only threw a no-hitter in the month of June, but he's gone 6-0 with a 0.82 ERA in the month, striking out 61 in 44 innings of work. He's had 28 consecutive scoreless innings, the eighth longest streak in a Dodger history that is filled with amazing pitching feats.
So when looking at today's line where the Dodgers are underdogs to the visiting Indians, you can't help but be excited to run to the betting window. Tonight's starter, Dan Haren (7-4, 3.83 ERA), doesn't get the juices flowing like Kershaw, but taking +104 with a team that has everything flowing in a positive direction should.
Haren has served up eight of his 16 homers this season in the month of June, but the Dodgers have still win three of his last four starts. Haren bends, but he doesn't break and he's gotten at least five runs of support in his last four starts.
The Indians will start the series tonight with Corey Kluber (7-5, 3.09), who went seven scoreless innings in his last start Wednesday at Arizona. He's won all six of his career starts against NL teams with a 2.29 ERA, and the Indians have won eight of his last 10 starts overall. He's got some pretty good credentials coming in which is why he's favored tonight.
But this is one of those spots where you throw out all the pitching trends and stats and ride the hyped locker room. The Dodgers have that winning attitude. They're feeling it and it's contagious for everyone in the Dodgers uniform. They know they're going to win every game and come out like champions with loads of confidence every night.
Sometimes confidence supersedes reality to the point where in tonight's situation, Kluber should be the favorite, but the line isn't in proper consideration for the Dodgers' current roll. This is the type of situation you just keep riding until the well runs dry, and if we use last season as an example, that dry point may not occur until September.
Los Angeles Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw capped an unbelievable June in style, tossing seven shutout innings in Sunday's 6-0 win over the St. Louis Cardinals. Kershaw finished June 6-0 with a 0.82 ERA, a stretch that featured 61 strikeouts against just four walks and a 28-inning shutout streak.
That's One Big Dog
Monday's action features only one major underdog play - the Colorado Rockies (+204, 7.5), who face Jordan Zimmermann and the host Washington Nationals. It's the Rockies' first game of the year as a 'dog of more than +200; they went 2-2 in such games last season.
The Price is Wrong
David Price will look to reverse a bizarre trend Tuesday as he leads the Tampa Bay Rays into New York for a date with the Yankees. Price has been a sinkhole for betters so far, earning $-466 - the lowest total for any pitcher whose team actually has a winning record in his starts (9-8).
Pitching Notes
Boston Red Sox right-hander Jake Peavy may be one of the worst value plays in baseball ($-845), but at least he has consistently paid off Under bettors. Peavy enters Monday's game against the visiting Cubs (+125, 8.5) 1-6 O/U in his last seven starts, and 4-11 O/U for the year.
Kansas City Royals ace James Shields has trended the other way as he prepares to face the host Minnesota Twins on Tuesday. Shields is a sensational 7-1 O/U in his last eight starts and 12-4 O/U on the year, tied with Justin Verlander and Stephen Strasburg for the most Overs in the majors.
Hitting Notes
Houston Astros sparkplug Jose Altuve is heating up, posting four straight multi-hit, multi-steal games to raise his average for the season to .347. The Astros are 3-1 SU and 1-3 O/U over that stretch; they open a series against visiting Seattle (-102, 7.5) Monday evening.
Miami catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia may have some trouble at the plate Tuesday night as his Marlins square off against A.J. Burnett and the Philadelphia Phillies. Saltamacchia has been dreadful versus Burnett in his career ,going just 2-for-17 with 10 strikeouts.
Totals Streak
Oakland Athletics (6-1 O/U): The Athletics came within a hair's breadth of making it seven straight overs Sunday, missing by a single run en route to a 4-3 victory over host Miami. Oakland ends its first half of the season with a league-best 51 wins and a 41-37-3 O/U mark.
Prop of the Day
Bettors should consider going big in Washington, where the Nationals are +400 at -4.5. Zimmermann has allowed just five earned runs over his previous five starts, while Rockies rookie starter Yohan Flande was torched for four runs over five innings in his major-league debut five days ago.
Injury Notes
New York Mets starter Dillon Gee threw 2 2/3 solid innings during a rehab start in Lower-A over the weekend as he works his way back from a strained lat muscle. The Mets are 4-4 SU and 4-4 O/U in Gee's eight starts this season; he's 3-1 with a 2.73 ERA through 52 2/3 innings.
Toronto Blue Jays slugger Jose Bautista grounded out as a pinch-hitter Sunday in his first game action in a week. The Blue Jays went 3-3 S/U, 3-3 O/U and lost 66 units in Bautista's absence; he's expected to return to the lineup Tuesday against visiting Milwaukee.
Weather Watch
Wind at U.S. Cellular Field will be blowing in from right field at 16 mph for Monday's game between the Chicago White Sox (+137, 8.5) and the visiting Los Angeles Angels. Teams averaged just 6.5 runs and 1.67 homers in six games under similar conditions in 2013, well below stadium averages.
Nationals Park will see wind blowing out to left field at 9 mph for Tuesday's matchup between the Nationals and Colorado. The home team went 6-2 SU but just 2-6 O/U in eight games under similar wind conditions last season.
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