7-1-14

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Wunderdog Sports Free Play

Game: Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros
Time: Tuesday 07/01 8:10 PM Eastern
Pick: Seattle -125 (moneyline)

The Seattle Mariners are 11-4 over their last 15 games, and have one of the best 1-2 punches in the game at the top of their rotation with Hernandez and Iwakuma. That duo, and others, has the Seattle pitching allowing a grand total of just 55 runs in their last 22 games or just 2.5 per contest. Houston took a giant step forward with a 15-6 run, but they have since given a lot of it back at 4-10 in their last 14, allowing 4 runs or more in 10 of the 14 games. The Mariners own a 10-2 mark on the road when playing to a total from 7 to 8.5 in their last 12, and overall they own a 39-19 mark as a favorite from -110 to -150. Iwakuma has led them to a perfect 5-0 mark in his last five road starts, and Houston is a woeful 20-61 in their last 81 games vs. a team with a winning record. My play is on Seattle.

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Jeff Clement

8* Pittsburgh -135
7* Boston -170
10* Cincinnati -115

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Bryan Leonard

Cincy

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Kevin's Pick(s):
A split on my picks last night, with the Royals winning 6-1 but the Mariners game going over the total. I got back from Las Vegas late last night and am back into my normal routine, although today is Canada Day (Happy Canada Day to fellow Canadians out there) and I won't have any write ups this afternoon. I'll be back to my write ups for the rest of the week, including Friday on July 4th when we get to enjoy a full day of baseball.
Overall the trip to Vegas was another fun one. Me and my girlfriend took a helicopter ride to see the Grand Canyon for the first time which was cool, watched a Michael Jackson Cirque Du Soleil show, and broke about even at the tables which is always a win in itself. Below is a picture of us at the Mandalay Bay sportsbook. That was my first time at that casino and I really liked it - the sportsbook is big and would be a good place to watch the games.


Two picks for tonight below...
2 UNIT = Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins - ROYALS TO WIN (-122)
Listed Pitchers: Shields vs Nolasco
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.64 units)
2 UNIT = Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees - RAYS TO WIN (-119)
Listed Pitchers: Price vs Kuroda
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.68 units)
Kyle's Pick(s)
2 UNIT = Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals - NATIONALS -1.5 (-115)
Listed Pitchers: Fiedrich vs. Strasburg
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.74 units)
The Nats pounded the Rockies, 7-3, to give us a relatively easy win last night. I may be biting off more than I can chew, but I really like the same bet again tonight.
Another night another well below average pitcher for the Rockies at the mound. Nothing is going to be done about their pitching for the remainder of the season, so they will continue to be a great team to fade and OVER bets. Here tonight we have Christian Fiedrich, yes the same pitcher that threw the wild pitch and emptied the bases. The same pitcher that forgot there was another base runner on that walked home while he watched. If Fiedrich had some respectable numbers I would give him a pass, but in only two starts this season in the majors he has gotten belted. This is his second stint at this level, his last in 2012 where he exited the season with a 6.17 ERA after 16 starts. This season has been a disaster: 8.10 ERA, 2.00 WHIP, and .420 OBP. Note that in his one start on the road against the Brewers he got taken for a 11.25 ERA, 2.50 WHIP, and .476. Almost half of the batters he faced made it to base safely, putting on 2.5 per inning, not good at all. He'll have it tough tonight against Stephen Strasburg. He's come off a string of poor performances, but I like him to bounce back tonight. Strasburg carries a 3.70 ERA, but it lowers to 2.51 at home where he has a 5-1 record. I'd like his WHIP to be lower than 1.20, but like last night, I expect the Nationals' offense to bury Rockie pitching. All Strasburg needs to do is hold the fort down and pitch a good to decent game. This is another lefty for the Rockies. The Nats are quite capable of hitting them, entering Tuesday night with a .277 batting average against them. The Rockies are now 2-8 in their last ten games and are 16-28 on the road. I see a similar final to last nights score, so take a look

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FantasySportsGametime

MLB Baseball

1000* Play Atlanta -150 over New York Mets (MLB TOP PLAY)

Atlanta has won 77 of the last 112 games when playing as a favorite of -150 or higher and they have won 33 of the last 52 games when playing in the month of July.Atlanta has won 39 of the last 64 games when playing on a Tuesday and they have won 90 of the last 149 games when batting .240 or worse over the last ten games.

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50* Play Arizona +130 over Pittsburgh (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play New York Yankees +110 over Tampa Bay (MLB BONUS PLAY)

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XpertPicks

TUESDAY BASEBALL

• Play New York Yankees +105 over Tampa Bay----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)

7:00 PM EST

New York has won 16 of the last 20 games after having lost six or seven of the last eight games and they have won 83 of the last 145 games vs. left-handed starting pitchers. Hiroki Kuroda has won 8 of the last 10 games when pitching in the month of July and he has won 27 of the last 43 home games.

• Play Cleveland +160 over Los Angeles Dodgers----Top Play (Risk 8% of your Bankroll)
  10:00 PM EST

Josh Beckett has lost 27 of the last 38 night games and he has lost 18 of the last 28 home games. Josh Beckett has lost 24 of the last 39 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and he has lost 20 of the last 31 games when playing as a favorite of -110 or higher.

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BeatYourBookie

TUESDAY

MLB BASEBALL


10* Play Oakland +120 over Detroit (MLB TOP PLAY)

Oakland is 34-15 when playing in the month of July
Oakland is 83-46 after having won six or seven of the last eight games
Oakland is 60-41 vs. AL Central Division Opponents the last three seasons


10* Play New York Yankees +105 over Tampa Bay (MLB TOP PLAY)

Tampa Bay is 0-9 after having won four or five of the last six games
Tampa Bay is 14-25 when playing on a Tuesday
Tampa Bay is 31-43 when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs

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5* Play Cleveland +160 over Los Angeles Dodgers (MLB BONUS PLAY)
5* Play Arizona +130 over Pittsburgh (MLB BONUS PLAY)

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SPORTSWAGERS

MLB

L.A. Angels @ CHICAGO (Gm 1)

L.A. Angels -1½ +104 over CHICAGO

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)

5:05 PM EST. Game 1 of the DH and listed pitchers must go for action. Hector Noesi has appeared in 81 games since he appeared on the scene in 2011 with 32 of those coming as a starter. His ERA year by year including this year: 4.47, 5.82, 6.59, 5.07 and 4.94. That translates into a career ERA of 5.41 and 36 of Noesi’s appearances occurred when he was a Mariner pitching half his games in an extreme pitcher’s park. Noesi’s career groundball/line-drive/fly-ball is 38%/22%/40% and that is exactly the same as he’s posted this year in 11 starts. In his 32 career starts, he has seven pure quality one’s. Noesi also took abuse at Tacoma (5.83 ERA) last year, which indicates that his promotions were not merit-based. We've seen worse base skills but he needs some extra fastball juice or a more of a groundball lean to take the next step. That’s never happened and we're not optimistic that it will happen. At U.S. Cellular, Noesi is 1-3 with a 5.54 ERA, an xERA of 5.60, a 1.46 WHIP and an oppBA of .308 in 39 innings. He’ll now face one of the hottest hitting teams in the majors.

Garrett Richards has made some significant gains in 2014 and the reason for them can be partially found in his pitch mix. He is throwing two-seam fastballs 30% of the time in 2014 compared to just 7% of the time in 2013. It's a pitch that has limited batters to a .656 OPS and has induced groundballs at an elite 68% rate. Richards has 99 K’s in 101 innings to go along with a 2.76 ERA. Over his last five starts covering 35 innings, Richards’ has whiffed 37 while posting an ERA of 2.31. There are four reasons why this breakout has occurred. 1) Surging groundball rate raises floor and gives him unique skill; 2) 95-mph fastball, solid swing and miss lay foundation for more strikeouts; 3) consistent skills every outing 4) high quality start/disaster start split confirms he's very close to becoming an ace. The Halos should destroy the South Side in this game and nothing more needs to be said.


Tampa Bay @ N.Y. YANKEES

Tampa Bay -115 over N.Y. YANKEES

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 1.74)

David Price might be the AL’s best pitcher. At the very least, he’s in the discussion, which makes him very playable against a Yankees team that can’t hit and that has two wins in their past nine games. At 6-7 with a 3.63 ERA, it's easy to assume Price, like his cellar-dwelling team, is having a down year. But seeing his sick 144/14 K/BB split, it's clear something doesn't add up. In actuality, Price has never been better. It's just poor luck that's bogging him down. A 34% hit% and 72% strand% have corroborated to mask a sub-3.00 xERA. His skills are off the charts. Rarely will you see a command this strong from anyone but a fire-balling reliever, but Price is one exception. We've seen this before from Price. An unfortunate hit%/strand% led to an inflated 5.23 ERA during the first half of '13 despite outstanding skills. Even then his skills weren't as remarkable as they are now. A 77/0 dominant start/disaster start split only solidifies how dominant he's been and speaks to the power that luck factors can have on a pitcher's bottom line. Price has thrown a pure quality start in 14 of his 17 starts this season, including in each of his last seven starts. He has been incredible over his last five starts, where he has a 2.35 xERA, 12.3 K’s/9, 0.9 BB/9 and a 0.72 WHIP.

After four straight sparkling seasons with ERA’s in the low threes, Hiroki Kuroda has seen his ERA spike nearly a run in 2014. Kuroda’s command is as solid as ever, and his skills are still the second best on the team. Kuroda’s xERA shows his true level has dropped very little with his only skill to slide is his strikeout rate, which is highlighted by a slow swing and miss rate drop. Kuroda's slow loss of his strikeout pitch is certainly a sign of decline. But his ERA spike is mostly due to a big drop in strand rate from a somewhat fortunate multi-year run to a bit below the norm. At 39, Kuroda's skills erosion is inevitable, of course. For now, though, he's continued to stave off Father Time quite well. Kuroda was not as good as his ERA in the past four season’s suggested and he’s not as bad as this year’s 4.23 ERA suggests. He’s somewhere in the middle but he’s no David Price and the Rays are the hotter of the two teams as well.


Philadelphia @ MIAMI

Philadelphia +126 over MIAMI

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.52)

Two cold teams meet here, as both the Phillies and Marlins have dropped four in a row and seven of their past nine. The difference is that the Fish are spotting a price and they are 1-7 over their last eight games as the chalk. We also know 100% for sure that Henderson Alvarez cannot maintain his 1.44 home ERA. Alvarez has had more good fortune than any starter in the game with 10 or more starts. His strand % overall is 82% but at home it’s a ridiculous 90%. In 101 innings, Alvarez has just 64 K’s and while his command is very good, he still puts too many balls in play to be able to maintain that extremely high strand rate and low HR/F rate of 6%. Alvarez has a below league average swing and miss rate at home of 7%. Alvarez is not a bad pitcher by any stretch, as his strong groundball rate and very good command make him difficult to rally against but he’s NOT this good and so regression in his ERA at home is inevitable.

A.J. Burnett is coming on. He’s allowed a combined nine runs against over his past four starts and two of those runs were unearned. Burnett had some health issues (hernia) early in the year and it appeared to have altered his delivery somewhat. Burnett’s knuckle-curve generated a high near-20% swing and miss rate in each of the last three seasons but this year has been a different story, as his swing and miss % on that pitch has dipped to 13%. However, over his past two starts, his knuckle curve is back up to 20% and that suggests that Burnett is feeling better. Burnett is keeping the ball on the ground and has not been taken yard in two straight starts, nor has he been taken deep in three of his last four on the road. The play here, however, is more about fading Alvarez, a pitcher whose home ERA is in for a serious correction in the very near future.


St. Louis @ SAN FRANCISCO

St. Louis +100 over SAN FRANCISCO

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)

The Cardinals have lost three of four and in those three losses they scored one run COMBINED. The Redbirds will now send out a rookie pitcher with an ERA of 9.00 after one start against one of the more familiar starters in MLB, Tim Lincecum, who just threw a no-hitter in his last start. Additionally, the game is in San Fran, yet the Giants are just slightly favored. When you put it all together, the oddsmakers have made the Giants too appealing with this tiny tag on them and that to us is a huge warning sign, prompting us to step in on the Cardinals.

The “wager against a pitcher coming off a no-hitter” angle is in play here. We played that angle against Josh Beckett earlier in the year and it cashed. We passed against Clayton Kershaw because he’s just a freak (Kershaw won that game) and now we get another opportunity here. Lincecum has become an extremely volatile pitcher. One of the main reasons for it can be found in his none on/runners on split. He has a 4.0 BB/9 and 1.7 HR/9 with runners on base and his strikeouts dip from a 10.8 K’s/9 with the bases empty to a 6.6 K’s/9 with runners on base. Apply the huge letdown factor to Lincecum and the stage is set for a rough outing.

Pay no attention to Marco Gonzales’ major-league debut because it occurred at Coors Field. That first start is now out of the way and one has to assume that aside from nerves, Gonzales had to be feeling a little anxious about making his MLB debut at that venue. Gonzales throws a 77-79 mph change-up that is widely regarded as the best in the Cardinals system. The change-up is complemented by a low-90s mph fastball that is made more effective by his fluid, clean delivery and ability to repeat his mechanics on all pitches. Though a bit small for a starter, (6’ 1” – 195 LBS) Gonzales is a very polished pitcher with plus command who locates all of his pitches well. He registers a good number of strikeouts (mainly from his change-up) while showing solid control. Though it may just be a cup of coffee this go-round, Gonzales has the make-up and stuff to be an effective third starter for many years to come. Over 99 minor-league innings, he owns a 2.08 ERA with a 9.1 K’s per nine a .223 oppBAA and a 2.33 ERA. Over his last five minor-league starts, Gonzales struck out 34 batters in 27 innings and he has a much better chance for success at this park than he had in Denver.

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Sports Picks Portfolio

MLB

Baltimore Orioles -135

Over 7.5 -103 Tampa Bay Rays/New York Yankees

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Dr. Ed Meyer | MLB Money Line

dime bet – 905 NYM (+147) vs 906 ATL

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Sports Betting Champ-MLB System Bet 7/1 - Odd situation here

White sox {A} bet

Yesterday's game between the White Sox and the Angels was postponed due to rain. As a result, the teams will now play a doubleheader today in 2 back-to-back games. Now, this is a situation that we don't normally run into. The fact that teams play 2 back-to-back games can have radical effect on the result of the games.

I cannot say with 100% certainty at this point whether it is safe to bet on a double header, because there is simply not enough historical data for me to analyze with definite certainty on how a double header will affect the efficiency of the system over time. This, coupled with the fact that the system bet is unofficial to begin with due to the RPI filter makes it even more questionable.

If anything, treat the Chicago vs Angels series just for tracking purposes. If you do put any action on the game, make note that they are playing 2 back to back games, therefore the next wager would immediately follow up if the first game fails.

We'll have the next system bets just a couple days away on the 3rd, including an official bet that looks quite solid!
Tony

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Bookie Zapper

7:05 EST === Oakland Athletics (+104) ==== Risk 2 Units (vs Tigers)
10:15 EST === St Louis Cardinals (+102) ==== Risk 2 Units (vs SF Giants)

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MLB Betting Cheat Sheet

Kershaw's Magnificent Month

Los Angeles Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw capped an unbelievable June in style, tossing seven shutout innings in Sunday's 6-0 win over the St. Louis Cardinals. Kershaw finished June 6-0 with a 0.82 ERA, a stretch that featured 61 strikeouts against just four walks and a 28-inning shutout streak.

That's One Big Dog

Monday's action features only one major underdog play - the Colorado Rockies (+204, 7.5), who face Jordan Zimmermann and the host Washington Nationals. It's the Rockies' first game of the year as a 'dog of more than +200; they went 2-2 in such games last season.

The Price is Wrong

David Price will look to reverse a bizarre trend Tuesday as he leads the Tampa Bay Rays into New York for a date with the Yankees. Price has been a sinkhole for betters so far, earning $-466 - the lowest total for any pitcher whose team actually has a winning record in his starts (9-8).

Pitching Notes

Boston Red Sox right-hander Jake Peavy may be one of the worst value plays in baseball ($-845), but at least he has consistently paid off Under bettors. Peavy enters Monday's game against the visiting Cubs (+125, 8.5) 1-6 O/U in his last seven starts, and 4-11 O/U for the year.

Kansas City Royals ace James Shields has trended the other way as he prepares to face the host Minnesota Twins on Tuesday. Shields is a sensational 7-1 O/U in his last eight starts and 12-4 O/U on the year, tied with Justin Verlander and Stephen Strasburg for the most Overs in the majors.

Hitting Notes

Houston Astros sparkplug Jose Altuve is heating up, posting four straight multi-hit, multi-steal games to raise his average for the season to .347. The Astros are 3-1 SU and 1-3 O/U over that stretch; they open a series against visiting Seattle (-102, 7.5) Monday evening.

Miami catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia may have some trouble at the plate Tuesday night as his Marlins square off against A.J. Burnett and the Philadelphia Phillies. Saltamacchia has been dreadful versus Burnett in his career ,going just 2-for-17 with 10 strikeouts.

Totals Streak

Oakland Athletics (6-1 O/U): The Athletics came within a hair's breadth of making it seven straight overs Sunday, missing by a single run en route to a 4-3 victory over host Miami. Oakland ends its first half of the season with a league-best 51 wins and a 41-37-3 O/U mark.

Prop of the Day

Bettors should consider going big in Washington, where the Nationals are +400 at -4.5. Zimmermann has allowed just five earned runs over his previous five starts, while Rockies rookie starter Yohan Flande was torched for four runs over five innings in his major-league debut five days ago.

Injury Notes

New York Mets starter Dillon Gee threw 2 2/3 solid innings during a rehab start in Lower-A over the weekend as he works his way back from a strained lat muscle. The Mets are 4-4 SU and 4-4 O/U in Gee's eight starts this season; he's 3-1 with a 2.73 ERA through 52 2/3 innings.

Toronto Blue Jays slugger Jose Bautista grounded out as a pinch-hitter Sunday in his first game action in a week. The Blue Jays went 3-3 S/U, 3-3 O/U and lost 66 units in Bautista's absence; he's expected to return to the lineup Tuesday against visiting Milwaukee.

Weather Watch

Wind at U.S. Cellular Field will be blowing in from right field at 16 mph for Monday's game between the Chicago White Sox (+137, 8.5) and the visiting Los Angeles Angels. Teams averaged just 6.5 runs and 1.67 homers in six games under similar conditions in 2013, well below stadium averages.

Nationals Park will see wind blowing out to left field at 9 mph for Tuesday's matchup between the Nationals and Colorado. The home team went 6-2 SU but just 2-6 O/U in eight games under similar wind conditions last season.

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VEGAS RUNNER

RLcrew WNBA Move

601) OVER 152 – SA/CONN

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Behind The Bets

Pirates -132