7-2-14

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Capping the calendar: July's best and worst MLB pitchers
By MARC LAWRENCE

Fireworks and the MLB All-Star game signal the month of July. It also signifies the start of the 2nd half of the MLB campaign. The key to each and every team’s fortune lies on the pitching staff. Can they sustain or will they fold like a cheap lawn chair from K-Mart? Stay tuned.


What we do know is certain pitchers love hurling this time of the season while others tend to get lit up like a roman candle on the 4th of July.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of July. On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in July team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each July over the last three years. Note: * designates pitcher was on this list last year.

I’ll be back next month with August’s Good Month Pitchers. Until then, it’s time to take me out to the ballgame…

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:

*Hudson, Tim • 12-5

When San Francisco signed Hudson, our guess is they were hoping for a serviceable No. 5 starter with veteran experience which could give them a better than 50-50 chance to win. It has turned much better for the Giants, winning 10 of Hudson’s 15 starts and he has held right-handed batters to just a .245 average. Especially watch for Hudson at home, where he’s only lost twice since last season.

Jackson, Edwin • 10-4

Have to admit, a stunner to see this much traveled ball-chucker having a good month any time. Wish I could say I had an answer for his July success for a guy who is 83-97 in the big leagues, but I don’t. In looking for a positive, Jackson pitches better at Wrigley Field than on the road (3.86 ERA vs. 6.70) and he’s won four of six decisions at the friendly confines this season.

*Kershaw, Clayton • 12-5

The best pitcher in baseball is coming off a fantastic June, in which he was 6-0 and surrendered four total runs in his starts and picked up a no-hitter. The early nit-picky talk about his curveball has quieted and he’s back to his old-dominate self. He has 107 strikeouts in 79.1 innings and a WHIP of 0.92. Opposing teams are hitting .209 against Kershaw and left-handed batters, why bother, with a .180 average.

*Porcello, Rick • 12-1

With a star-studded pitching staff, Porcello only ranks fourth in the rotation as far as ability, but this season he’s been then their moneyman in winning 11 of 15 outings. He’s also been one of the top bets among pitchers at +7.15 units. The big difference with the right-hander this season is his sinker has more dip and he’s making fewer bad pitches, leading to more wins and is on pace for a career-low WHIP of 1.19. If the Detroit offense continues hitting, keep backing Porcello in July.

Tillman, Chris • 7-3

The Orioles ace has picked up +5.6 units in spite of 4.00 ERA, with Baltimore 11-6. How has Tillman done this? While probably unaware of the betting odds, he knows when he matched against a very good starting pitcher from the opposing team and pitches better, which is why the O’s are 9-2 this season with Tillman as an underdog. He’s a fly-ball pitcher, who’s had some trouble on the road (5.53 ERA), if he can improve command, he should be a winner this month.

*Weaver, Jered • 13-5

Just love the analytics crowd who love to use a six-inch paintbrush to encompass a wide swath to their thought processes. “Weaver will continue in serious decline” was among the scathing preseason reviews of the angular right-hander. His fastball peaks out at 91 on good days and is more consistently 88-89 MPH and is does not compute to them he would concede 18 percent fewer hits to innings pitched with that kind of velocity. All Weaver does is win and dominate righty hitters (.163 BA).


BAD MONTH PITCHERS:

Bedard, Eric • 1-10

Bedard was not good enough to pitch a second season with Houston and is primarily in the majors only because Tampa Bay needed a warm body in the spring after their starting staff was decimated by injuries. The 35-year old has not been horrible this season, but he’s not a fit on a team that expects to be a playoff contender, which Tampa Bay is not this season. More bad news ahead.

*Norris, Bud • 4-10

For his entire career, Norris has been a solid pitcher at home and unbelievably bad on the road. He must have been thrown in a lot of away games in July to earn this record and will start the month on the DL with a right groan strain. When he returns, definite Play Against potential in away games.

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Twins pitcher spells doom versus Royals
By JUSTIN HARTLING


When the Minnesota Twins send Kevin Correia to the mound Wednesday, they send him with some nerves. In Correia's starts against the Kansas City Royals the past two seasons, the Twins are 1-6.

Correia has allowed at least six hits in all seven of those games, averaging 7.6 hits per game.


Padres pitcher winless all June, takes mound

Tyson Ross will take to the mound for the San Diego Padres and hope that July is different than June. The Padres went 0-5 with Ross on the mound last month.

Ross gave up 27 hits and 16 runs while carrying a 32/2 K/BB ratio in June.


Phillies pitcher dominating Marlins

Cole Hamels has been a force against the Miami Marlins and bettors have been cashing in. In Hamels last 10 starts against the Marlins, the under has gone 8-1-1 for bettors.

In those 10 starts Hamels has not once allowed more than three runs and has held the Fins to one or less four times.


Teheran has the NL East on notice

Julio Teheran has been the top Atlanta Braves pitcher within the National League East. The Braves are carrying a 13-3 record in Teheran's last 16 starts within the division.

Teheran has held opponents to one run or less in nine of those 16 contests (56 percent), while only once allowing more than three.

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Who's Hot - NL Edition
By Mike Rose

We're in the midst of the dog days of summer, and this is the time of year when we are really going to be separating the pretenders from the contenders. Join us today as we look at the teams in the National League who are really tearing it up as we head into the month of July.

Milwaukee Brewers (51-33, +$1,571) – We're really not all that sure why and how the Brewers have been competing in the rough and tumble NL Central, but they are still hanging in there and clearly will have staying power for the rest of the year. Francisco Rodriguez has completely revived his career this year and is one of the best closers in the game, while Jonathan Lucroy, Scooter Gennett, and Carlos Gomez are all having career types of years. Ryan Braun is slugging over .500 as well, while Khris Davis isn't all that far away. Better yet? There has only been a total of one missed start this year due to injury out of the rotation. Wily Peralta and Kyle Lohse are pitching beyond their abilities right now as we see it though, so the Brew Crew could be ready to take a step in the wrong direction if these starters don't keep it up.

San Francisco Giants (46-36, +$669) – And this is why the Giants can't be trusted on a regular basis. The team was just swept for four games at home against Cincinnati, and the offense scored a grand total of just six runs in those four games, including getting virtually no hit by Homer Bailey and the Reds. The only game that the team has won since June 22nd was the no-no by Tim Lincecum. It was only a matter of time until these bats cooled down, but this has been borderline ridiculous. The schedule ahead isn't friendly for the bats either, as there are three games at home against the Cards before a trip to Petco Park. Things really need to improve in a hurry, because these pitchers can't be tasked with throwing no-hitters in order to get wins all the time.

Cincinnati Reds (43-39, +$380) – It's a long dip down to the Reds, and it's proof of just how wide open the National League is this year. Cincinnati is only on this list because of its four-game sweep against the Giants at AT&T Park, and that took it from a losing team to a winning one both SU and for betting purposes. The Reds have had six straight quality starts out of their starters, but will that really continue? Here's the caution: Only five teams have winning money records in the NL, and the only one we feel good about staying that way for the whole season is Milwaukee. Anything can, and frequently will change in the NL for the rest of the season. Cincinnati is just the team du jour right now.

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Rays on Tuesday and likes the Brewers on Wednesday.

The deficit is 132 sirignanos.

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Hondo

The Pirates patched together a win for Hondo Tuesday night, rallying for three in the ninth to stun the D’backs and trim the accounts payable to 1,380 gulletts.

Wednesday: Mr. Aitch expects the Reds to show Ross who’s boss in San Diego — 10 units on Cueto. Also, 10 on Vogelsong to do a number on the Cards.

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Wednesday

Orioles -149

cards -145

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ANTHONY MICHAEL (Play of the Day)

#980 Boston Red Sox with Workman moneyline -150 (7:10 edt) ESPN

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Carlos Salazars Wednesday Night MLB Bookie Crusher

OVER 9 Baltimore/Texas -115

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MLB

National League
Reds-Padres
Cueto is 3-0, 2.22 in his last four starts.
Ross is 0-4, 4.36 in his last five starts.

Cincinnati won 13 of its last 19 road games, but lost last two.
Padres won their last three games.

12 of last 15 games at Petco Park stayed under.

Rockies-Nationals
Matzek is 0-2, 4.96 in his last three starts.
Fister is 5-2, 2.38 in his last seven starts.

Colorado lost 13 of its last 15 games.
Nationals won 11 of their last 14 home games.

Over is 14-3-1 in last eighteen Colorado road games.

Arizona-Pirates
Anderson is 0-3, 5.06 in his last three starts.
Morton is 0-2, 6.23 in his last two starts.

Arizona lost six of its last nine road games.
Pirates won eight of their last ten games.

Last five Diamondback games stayed under total.

Mets-Braves
deGrom is 1-0, 1.32 in his last couple starts.
Teheran is 1-1, 2.45 in his last three starts.

Mets lost six of their last seven games.
Atlanta won eight of its last nine games.

Seven of last ten Atlanta games stayed under total.

Phillies-Marlins
Burnett is 2-2, 2.59 in his last four starts.
Miami lost last three Koehler starts (0-1, 3.79).

Philly lost six of its last seven games.
Miami lost nine of its last thirteen games.

Four of last five Miami home games went over total.

Cardinals-Giants
Wainwright is 2-1, 1.16 in his last four starts.
Vogelsong is 1-2, 5.73 in his last four starts.

St Louis lost four of its last five games.
Giants lost 12 of their last 15 home games.

Under is 11-4-1 in last sixteen St Louis road games.

American League
A's-Tigers
Oakland won last three Chavez starts (1-0, 2.50).
Verlander is 0-3, 7.11 in his last five starts.

Oakland won 11 of its last 16 games, but lost last two.
Tigers won seven of their last nine games.

Six of last eight Oakland games went over the total.

Rays-Bronx
Odorizzi is 1-2, 1.44 in his last four starts.
Nuno is 1-2, 7.80 in his last three starts.

Tampa Bay won six of its last seven games.
Bronx lost eight of its last ten games.

Six of last eight Nuno starts stayed under total.

Royals-Twins
Vargas is 3-0, 1.37 in his last four road starts.
Correia is 2-2, 2.63 in his last four starts.

Royals won nine of their last eleven road games.
Minnesota lost six of their last eight games.

Over is 3-1-1 in last five Vargas starts; last four Correia starts stayed under.

Mariners-Astros
Young is 2-0, 1.00 in his last three starts.
Peacock is 2-0, 2.88 in his last six starts.

Seattle won nine of its last eleven games.
Houston lost 11 of its last 15 games.

Six of last eight Peacock starts stayed under.

Rangers-Orioles
Mikolas is making his first MLB start; he has a 3.97 RA in 34 IP in relief, in 27 big league games-- he is 3-1, 4.68 in six AAA starts this season.
Tillman is 2-2, 1.61 in his last four starts.

Rangers lost 11 of their last 13 games.
Baltimore is 9-5 in its last 14 games.

Under is 4-1-1 in last six Tillman starts.

Angels-White Sox
Skaggs was 0-3, 7.00 in his last three starts before going on DL.
Danks is 4-1, 3.66 in his last five starts.

Angels won nine of their last eleven games.
White Sox lost six of their last eight home games.

Nine of last ten White Sox home games went over.

Interleague games
Brewers-Blue Jays
Peralta is 5-0, 4.50 in his last five starts; Brewers scored 36 runs.
Happ is 3-3, 5.55 in his last six starts.

Milwaukee won four of its last six games.
Toronto lost nine of its last fourteen games.

Five of last six Toronto games stayed under.

Indians-Dodgers
Bauer is 1-2, 4.81 in his last four starts.
Ryu is 6-2, 3.22 in his last eight starts.

Cleveland lost seven of its last ten games.
Dodgers won 13 of their last 18 games.

Under is 4-0-1 in last five Ryu starts.

Cubs-Red Sox
Wood is 3-1, 3.20 in his last four starts.
Workman is 1-1, 2.75 in his last three starts.

Cubs won six of their last eight road games.
Red Sox lost eight of their last twelve games.

13 of last 14 games at Fenway Park stayed under.


Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Cueto 1-17; Ross 5-17
-- Matzek 0-4; Fister 3-10
-- Anderson 1-9; Morton 3-16
-- deGrom 1-9; Teheran 5-17
-- Hamels 2-13; Koehler 2-16
-- Wainwright 3-16; Vogelsong 3-16

-- Chavez 4-16; Verlander 5-17
-- Odorizzi 0-16; Nuno 6-13
-- Vargas 2-17; Correia 4-16
-- Young 2-15; Peacock 4-11
-- Mikolas 0-0; Tillman 7-17
-- Skaggs 6-11; Danks 5-16


-- Peralta 2-16; Happ 1-11
-- Bauer 3-9; Ryu 1-15
-- Wood 3-16; Workman 4-6

Umpires
-- Cin-SD-- Six of seven Everitt games went over the total.
-- Col-Wsh-- Home side won five of last six Drake games.
-- Az-Pitt-- Underdogs won 12 of last 14 Hudson games.
-- NY-Atl-- Seven of last ten Iassogna games stayed under.
-- Phil-Mia-- Over is 8-3-1 in last dozen Cooper games.
-- StL-SF-- Over is 10-3-1 in LBarrett games this season.

-- A's-Det-- 10 of 14 Layne games went over the total.
-- Tex-Blt-- Eight of ten Basner games went over the total.
-- TB-NY-- Underdogs won 12 of 15 Schrieber games this year.
-- KC-Min-- Favorites won six of last seven Kellogg games.
-- Sea-Hst-- Six of last eight Kellogg games stayed under.
-- LA-Chi-- 10 of last 12 BWelke games stayed under.

-- Mil-Tor-- Five of last seven Gibson games went over.
-- Chi-Bos-- Seven of last eleven Meals games went over.
-- Cle-LA-- Seven of last nine Vanover games went over.

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StatFox Super Situations

MLB | LA ANGELS at CHI WHITE SOX
Play Against - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (CHI WHITE SOX) with an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 on the season, playing on Wednesday
115-54 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.0% | 46.4 units )
6-5 this year. ( 54.5% | -0.3 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | MILWAUKEE at TORONTO
MILWAUKEE is 16-7 (+12.7 Units) against the money line in Road games as a road underdog of +100 or higher this season.
The average score was: MILWAUKEE (4.7) , OPPONENT (4.3)

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MLB

'Rubber Match'

The closing matchup of a three game series between Minnesota and Kansas City is today’s baseball betting focus. Minnesota got the best of their division rival last night spanking Royals 10-2 setting up Wednesday's rubber match. Twins will look to righty Kevin Correia carrying a 4-9 record, 5.08 ERA to the mound. The Royals counter with southpaw Jason Vargas bringing a 7-3 record, 3.53 ERA to the hill along with a perfect 3-0 mark with a 1.75 ERA in road games. A tough spot for Minnesota and their right-hander. Twinkies are 2-5 with Correia following a win the previous night. Correia takes the ball 2-5 with a 6.55 ERA over 8 starts (3-5 TSR) at Target Field, 2-4 with a 4.25 ERA (3-6 TSR) in day games. Correia is also 0-4 life-time vs Royals with his teams 1-7 over eight attempts. The one team start victory for Correia came in April when Twins got the better of Royals and Vargas. There's no doubt Royals and Vargas will be highly-motivated here. Consider Royals knowing they've won 8 of 10 on the road and take to the field 5-2 in rubber matches, 10-2 vs the division, 4-0 as a favorite of -$1.10 to -$1.50 w/Vargas.

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Arthur Ralph Sports

on a 11-1 Free Play run

WED Red Sox -150

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Today's MLB Picks

Arizona at Pittsburgh

The Diamondbacks (35-50) try to bounce back from last night's 3-2 loss as they continue their series against a Pirates team that is 2-5 in Charlie Morton's last 7 starts against teams with a losing record. Arizona is the pick (+135) according to Dunkel, which has the Diamondbacks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+135). Here are all of today's MLB picks.

WEDNESDAY, JULY 2 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 951-952: Cincinnati at San Diego (3:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cueto) 13.989; San Diego (Ross) 16.334 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 2 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-145); 6 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+125); Over

Game 953-954: Colorado at Washington (6:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Matzek) 14.487; Washington (Fister) 17.751 Dunkel Line: Washington by 3 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Washington (-225); 8 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-225); Under

Game 955-956: Arizona at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Anderson) 15.848; Pittsburgh (Morton) 14.648 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-155); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+135); Over

Game 957-958: NY Mets at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (deGrom) 14.830; Atlanta (Teheran) 16.174 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-205); 7 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-205); Under

Game 959-960: Philadelphia at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.082; Miami (Koehler) 13.174 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2; 6 Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-130); 7 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-130); Under

Game 961-962: St. Louis at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.299; San Francisco (Vogelsong) 16.796 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-145); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+125); Over

Game 963-964: Oakland at Detroit (1:08 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Chavez) 16.182; Detroit (Verlander) 17.689 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Detroit (-135); 9 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-135); Under

Game 965-966: Tampa Bay at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) 14.876; NY Yankees (Nuno) 16.334 Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-120); 9 Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+100); Over

Game 967-968: Kansas City at Minnesota (1:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Vargas) 14.017; Minnesota (Correia) 15.390 Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Kansas City (-130); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+110); Over

Game 969-970: Seattle at Houston (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Young) 14.848; Houston (Peacock) 13.547 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Seattle (-115); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-115); Under

Game 971-972: Texas at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Mikolas) 14.026; Baltimore (Tillman) 15.548 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Baltimore (-150); 9 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-150); Under

Game 973-974: LA Angels at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Skaggs) 14.946; White Sox (Danks) 16.448 Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: LA Angels (-140); 9 Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+120); Over

Game 975-976: Milwaukee at Toronto (12:37 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Peralta) 14.893; Toronto (Happ) 16.396 Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Toronto (-115); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-115); Under

Game 977-978: Cleveland at LA Dodgers (3:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Bauer) 18.136; LA Dodgers (Ryu) 16.891 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-160); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+140); Over

Game 979-980: Chicago Cubs at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wood) 14.616; Boston (Workman) 15.464 Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Boston (-155); 9 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-155); Under

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WNBA Basketball Picks

Chicago at Phoenix

The Mercury play host to a Chicago team that is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games against Western Conference opponents. Phoenix is the pick (-8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Mercury favored by 15. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-8 1/2). Here are all of today's WNBA picks.

WEDNESDAY, JULY 2 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 651-652: Indiana at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 109.967; Washington 111.747 Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 2; 148 Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 4; 143 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+4); Over

Game 653-654: Chicago at Phoenix (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 107.095; Phoenix 122.027 Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 15; 157 Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 8 1/2; 162 Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-8 1/2); Under