7-2-14

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Las Vegas Pipeline

15* Reds

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The White Sox vs Angels double header proved the sheer uncertainty that surrounds when it comes to double headers! I hope you took my advice Jack and only treated these games just for tracking purposes rather than making any actual wagers on them.
The Angels and White Sox will play their final game of the series now, and what I suggest is to put just a side bet on this game, as I do believe that there is good value on this bet.
We'll have the next system bet coming up just a day after on July 3rd, and including an official system bet that looks quite solid. See you then!

All the best,
-Tony the Sports Betting "Champ"

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Jeff Overton has withdrawn from the tournament, so he will be replaced by Chris Stroud @ 55/1 I would like to welcome everyone to the 2014 Greenbrier Classic this week.
The Greenbrier Classic is played in White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia at The Old White TPC. Last year was the 5th year the tournament has been named The Greenbrier Classic, as it replaced the Buick Open on the PGA Tour circuit. Unfortunately for tournament organizers, players have fed off the easy layout of the Par 70, 7020 yard course. We actually had Jeff Overton four years years ago, and Stuart Appleby went out and shot a 59 on Sunday to win by 1 stroke over Jeff.
When organizers saw how easy the course was playing for the Tour pro's, they took a year to lengthen and toughen up the track. Many greens have been altered or replaced and the rough figures to be much more of a challenge this week than in previous years. The course will be playing at 7229 yards this year and will continue to be played as a Par 70.
With a premium once again being put on Total Driving and accuracy from the fairways, lets take a look at one of the most interesting finishing holes in golf (and one that will have an impact on the golf tournament this week.)
The Par 3 162 Yard 18th Hole -
Rarely do you ever see a course finish with a Par 3, but that is exactly the case this week at The Old White TPC. This short Par 3 is where Stuart Appleby made history four years ago by rolling in his putt for a final round 59.Though the 18th is guarded by bunkers, it utilizes its severe two tiered green to guard against the players taking advantage of the short hole. If you are on the wrong tier you can completely count out birdie, and would be more than happy not ending your round with a three putt. Look for the 18th to once again be a climatic setting come Sunday, with the stadium-like gallery loving every minute of it.
The Players
This week we have a below average list of headline names competing as many are preparing elsewhere for the upcoming Open Championship. Bubba Watson and Webb Simpson headline this years stars who will be competing in the Greenbrier Classic. Jimmy Walker, Brendon Todd, Keegan Bradley, Bill Haas, and Steve Stricker are just a few of the other notable names that will be competing this week.
This week we are keying on players who can take advantage of an easier course, yet also play it properly. Though The Old White TPC will be tougher this year, it still presents players with the ability to score well. If you drive the ball in the fairways and are accurate with you irons, you will have the ability to go low this week. Player's who played well last week at an extremely difficult Congressional, are most likely going to find this week very forgiving.
One other thing to watch for is the player's who need to improve their Fed Ex Cup standing in order to qualify for the first event of the playoff season, The Barclays. With only the Top 125 players making the field at The Barclays, look for positioning to be in the back of many players minds.
This season players also have the opportunity to qualify for the Open Championship from the Greenbrier Classic, with spots being awarded to the Top 4 players at the end of the week.
Without further ado, lets get down to my outright winner picks.
Steve's Six Pack

Chris Stroud 55/1 - This pick replaces Jeff Overton's withdraw
Brendon De Jonge 33/1 - De Jonge is another player who has yet to win on Tour but has had many close calls. He showed his ability to play with some of the worlds best last season at the Presidents Cup, and I thought that would propel him to a huge 2014. De Jonge has just 4 Top 25's in 23 events this year though, but he did finish T8 last week.
Last season at this event Brendon finished T17, and would have been in a great position to win if it wasn't for a 3rd round 73. De Jonge has a history of good finishes at this course though as he also has finished 3rd in 2010 and T4 in 2011. Confidence should be at an all time high this week for De Jonge and I feel we are getting great odds on him. A key for Brendon this week will be hitting Greens in Regulation, as he only ranks 119th on Tour in this category. He is a terrific driver of the ball (25th in Total Driving), and loves putting on these greens. I am looking forward to watching the big man from Zimbabwe make plenty of birdies.
Brendon Todd 24/1 - Todd has been on fire as of late. He has finished inside the Top 20 in five straight Tournaments, including a win at the Byron Nelson and a pair of T5's at the Crowne Plaza and the QuickenLoans. It has been everything about his game that has been on recently and I really think he will be on the Ryder Cup team this year. Todd proved he can compete with the best in the game at the US Open (T17), and looks driven to win again.
He will get a great opportunity to this week as Brendon has a putter that is on fire right now. He sunk plenty of 7-10 foot putts last week to save par or make birdies. The course this week will seem like a breeze to Todd who has played played great golf at some tough courses recently. I know he let us down last week, but Todd will make up for it this week.
Morgan Hoffman 110/1 - Hoffman is an interesting selection this week. Hoffman played in this tournament for the first time last year and he finished T23. He hit 75% of his Greens in Regulation that week and played the Par 3's and 4's in a combined 4 under. Hoffman will look to take advantage of the Par 5's more this season, as just 2 under on them will not cut it.
Hoffman has yet to finish in the Top 10 in his second full season on the PGA Tour but this week it will happen. He has success at tournaments when you have to make a lot of birdies and should build off a few positives I noticed last week. Hoffman played great the first two days shooting 70 and 68, but something happened on the weekend and he shot a pair of 78's. Following the tournament he expressed that his game feels right on the edge of breaking through and he was looking forward to this week. I also liked how he showed great composure even when this were not going his way. I have a gut feeling that Hoffman will use last week's tough weekend and be that much more focused on playing great this week.
2 Units on Jimmy Walker 11/1 - I do not even need to explain this pick. Jimmy Walker is going to play on the Ryder Cup team this year, has a chance at being named player of the year, and is by far the favourite this week is West Virginia. He was runner up here last year and has a pair of T4's in 2010 and 2011. Walker finished T9 in his last start (the US Open) and is going to be in contention on Sunday this week. Lay 2 Units on him and enjoy watching one of the best players in the world right now play a course he loves.
HEAD TO HEAD

We will go with two Head to Heads this week each for 3 Units
3 Units on - Jimmy Walker (-120) over Bubba Watson
3 Units on - Brendon Todd (-125) over Keegan Bradley
Let's get that elusive winner and get on a great run here.

Steve

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LT LOCK

Tampa Bay -110 (1:00 game)

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Sportswagers

Milwaukee @ TORONTO
Milwaukee +104 over TORONTO
BEST LINE: Pinnacle +104

The Blue Jays defeated the Brewers by a score of 4-1 in yesterday’s opener but so what. Toronto scored just two runs of Marco Estrada in six innings and Estrada is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that owns the worst skills profile in the game the second and third time through the order. The rumors prior to his start yesterday was that Estrada’s days in the Milwaukee rotation are numbered with strong prospect Jimmy Nelson lurking in Triple-A and Mike Fiers in their bullpen. Prior to yesterday, the Jays scored seven runs combined in three straight home losses to the White Sox. Yesterday was just the Jays fifth win in their past 14 games after losing a lot of winnable games to the South Side, Yanks, Cincinnati, Minnesota and Baltimore. Now J.A. Happ is favored over Milwaukee and Wily Peralta? That should not be. Happ is a fly-ball pitcher in a park that is unkind to those types. He has a 3.65 ERA at home but don’t buy it, as he’s been taken deep seven times in 37 home innings and his xERA at home matches his road ERA at 5.35. Happ comes into this start with a WHIP of 1.46 and an oppBA of .276. That’s not the profile of a winning pitcher.
Wily Peralta has an elite groundball rate of 54%. The Brewers have won each of his last five starts and that includes a 7.2-inning gem he threw at Coors Field. Peralta has been lights out against lefties, his 95 MPH four-seamer is wickedly good and the Brewers are 11-5 overall when he starts. We get a tag here on the much better offense, the much better starter and the team with the best road record in the NL and second best in all of MLB.

Tampa Bay @ N.Y. YANKEES
N.Y. YANKEES +105 over Tampa Bay
BEST LINE: Pinnacle +105

1:05 PM EST. Vidal Nuno does not have pretty numbers. He’s 1-3 at Yankee Stadium with an ERA of 6.20 and overall, Nuno is just 2-4 with a 5.42 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. However, his xERA over his last five starts is a very respectable 3.95. Nuno has been hurt by a low 67% strand rate and he’s also allowed two earned runs or fewer in five of his last 10 starts. What makes Nuno so interesting is his fabulous minor league numbers, which boast a better than 5 K/BB ratio, a 1.10 WHIP and an 8.6 K/9 over 428 innings. Last year, he was positively sparkling over five Triple-A starts and pitched well in three big league starts. Inflated but misleading numbers has Nuno’s stock low and that makes us buyers.
Jake Odorizzi 1.53 ERA over his last three starts has this former top prospect way overvalued. Odorizzi has 97 K's in 83 innings and that makes him very appealing against the Yankees but his strikeouts make no sense because he does not throw hard and his secondary pitches are average. Odorizzi’s fastball, at least by velocity, is unimpressive, as it averages just 90.5 mph. He complements that with both a slider and curve ball, as well as a splitter/changeup, depending on which source you check. A quick look at his swinging strike rate reveals some surprising information — all of his secondary pitches induce swings and misses at a worse than league average rate for that pitch type. So with just average ability to generate swings and misses, where the heck are all those strikeouts coming from? The final strike rate type percentage is that of fouls. Finally, a somewhat clearer picture emerges. His 33.6% mark is significantly above the league average that sits around 27% and ranks second among all starters in baseball. Foul strikes have the lowest impact on a pitcher’s strikeout rate for obvious reasons. Although a foul could add a strike to the count to eventually lead to a strikeout, foul balls themselves rarely result in a strikeout. So Odorizzi’s high strikeout rate is driven primarily by a massive rate of foul strikes. That’s simply not the type of skill one wants to rely on continuing. Odorizzi is also a fly ball pitcher and his control is just mediocre, so his value is entirely dependent on those strikeouts continuing to pile up and everything suggests that they won’t. Jake Odorizzi has been nothing but pure luck and should be put on your radar as pure fade material. This isn't Chris Archer or David Price that the Yanks will face here.

Seattle @ HOUSTON
Seattle/HOUSTON over 8½ -105
BEST LINE: Pinnacle over 8½ -105

2:10 PM EST. These two have combined for 29 runs in the first two games of this series with the Mariners scoring 23 of them. That was against Jared Cosart and Collin McHugh and those two rank higher than today’s starter, Brad Peacock. Peacock has walked 10 batters and struck out 11 over his past four starts covering just 22 frames. He has posted an ERA of 2.91 over that span but it was due to a ridiculous 81% strand rate and a 100% strand rate in his last start. Peacock has an ugly groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 34%/22%/43% over his last seven starts and that does not bode well at all at this park against the hot-hitting Mariners.
Chris Young is worse. Those of you new to the game may be wondering about that tall starting pitcher who’s gone 7-4 for the Mariners with an ERA of 3.15 and an ERA over his last three starts of 1.00. That’s not some rookie hot-shot; that’s 35-year old Chris Young. Young totaled only 44 IP in 2010/11 due to shoulder issues and missed most of 2013 due to thoracic outlet syndrome. That lovely ERA is unsustainable, as he’s living off of hit% and strand % luck. Young’s 5.32 xERA shows what to expect and it is the biggest discrepancy between actual ERA and xERA of any pitcher in the league with at least 10 starts. Despite his 6’10” height, Young isn’t a power pitcher. His fastball is generally in the 84 mph range and he’s never piled up big strikeout numbers. With a swinging strike rate so low this year (5%) he’s hardly registering any Ks and now has 47 in 91 innings. His BB/K split of 35/47 is a ratio no pitcher wants to own. Young’s groundball/fly-ball rate is also one of the ugliest in the league at 25%/57%. While that doesn’t kill him when he’s pitching in Safeco, any upward turn of hr/f will be disastrous. Young is one of the worst pitchers in baseball and that includes relievers. If there is a sure bet the rest of the way for an ERA correction, it is Young. Two misleading ERA’s have a very beatable total posted here and we’re on it.

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PowerPlayWins

Play Of The Day

Seattle Mariners -105 (Young)

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Wednesday afternoon’s must read weather update
Andrew Caley

There are plenty of afternoon games on tap Wednesday and plenty of weather that could affect your bets to go along with them.

In New York, the Yankees host the Tampa Bay Rays, where it will be partly cloudy with a 42 percent chance of rain. There will also be a 10 mph wind blowing from first to third base.

The Oakland A’s and the Detroit Tigers meet at Comerica Park, where there will be a strong 13 mph wind blowing in from left field. There is also a 28 percent chance of rain.

At Target Field the Minnesota Twins host the Kansas City Royals, where a strong 10 mph wind will be blowing out to right field

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Wednesday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider

Diamondbacks at Pirates

Probable Pitchers:
ARZ: Anderson (5-3, 3.63 ERA)
PIT: Morton (4-9, 3.41 ERA)

Series recap: The D-backs held a 2-0 lead heading into the ninth inning, but the Pirates rallied for three runs to shock Arizona, 3-2 to cash as -140 favorites. The Pirates are rolling by winning their eighth game in 10 tries, while the D-backs have dropped five of their past seven contests.

What to watch for: Morton is making just his second home start since late May, as he is coming off road defeats to the Rays and Cubs in his past two outings. Anderson tries to get on track after losing each of his last three starts following a 5-0 start to the season. Both these teams are riding major ‘under’ runs of late, as Pittsburgh is 5-1 and Arizona is 5-0 to the ‘under’ during the past week of action.

Cubs at Red Sox

Probable Pitchers:
CHC: Wood (7-6, 4.52 ERA)
BOS: Workman (1-1, 3.27 ERA)

Series recap: The Cubs have come out on top in consecutive low-scoring victories, winning 2-1 last night as a +155 underdog. Following Jake Arrieta’s near no-hitter on Monday, Edwin Jackson limited the Sox to one run in six innings of work on Tuesday to give the Cubs back-to-back road wins for just the second time this season.

What to watch for: Chicago owns a 3-11 record off a road victory this season, but the Cubs have won each of their last two away series finales at Miami and Philadelphia. The Red Sox have been swept three times at home in 2014, while Boston has hit the ‘under’ in seven straight games at Fenway Park.

Phillies at Marlins

Probable Pitchers:
PHI: Hamels (2-4, 2.84 ERA)
MIA: Koehler (5-6, 3.70 ERA)

Series recap: The Marlins and Phillies went back-and-forth last night as Miami won in extra innings, 5-4 to cash as -140 favorites. The victory snapped a four-game skid for the Marlins, as Miami improved to 5-6 this season against the Phillies.

What to watch for: Philadelphia is riding a five-game losing streak, but the Phillies are 4-1 in Hamels’ previous five starts. Koehler has failed to win in his last three trips to the mound, including a 5-3 defeat at Philadelphia in extra innings last Thursday. Miami is winless in Koehler’s past four starts at Marlins Park, while going 0-3 in his past three outings against NL East foes.

Mets at Braves

Probable Pitchers:
NYM: deGrom (1-4, 3.62 ERA)
ATL: Teheran (7-5, 2.34 ERA)

Series recap: The Braves go for the sweep tonight after winning each of the first two games as heavy favorites. Last night, Atlanta held on for a 5-4 triumph as -180 favorites, as each contest in this series has gone ‘over’ the total.

What to watch for: The Mets have dropped six of their past seven games, while compiling a 5-14 mark in the past 19 road contests. The Braves are back on the winning track after getting swept at home by the Phillies earlier this month, posting a 10-3 record the last 13 games, including this current six-game winning streak. Atlanta has won five of eight meetings this season from New York, while the Braves are 6-2 in Teheran’s eight starts at Turner Field.

Angels at White Sox

Probable Pitchers:
LAA: Skaggs (4-4, 4.34 ERA)
CHW: Danks (7-6, 4.26 ERA)

Series recap: The Angels pulled off a double-header sweep on Tuesday, beating the White Sox 8-4 and 7-5, both as a heavy favorite. In the series opener, the Angels overcame an early 3-0 deficit to pound the Sox, while the Halos led the whole way in the nightcap to improve to 5-0 this season against Chicago.

What to watch for: The Halos are on fire right now, winning nine of their past 11 contests to pull within 3½ games of the A’s for first place in the AL West. Los Angeles hasn’t pulled off a road sweep in a three-game series this season, while going 0-5 in its past five away series finales. The Sox have dropped six of their past eight home games, while cashing the ‘over’ in seven straight contests at U.S. Cellular Field.

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Jeff Clement

7 Units Cardinals / Giants Under 6.5

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JIMMY BOYD

4* SF Giants +128

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Ecks and Bacon

Ben lee had the splits on Tuesday in World Cup Soccer winning with $50 play on the Draw +$240 and losing with $25 on USA +$300/Belgium.

"Mr Chalk" won on Tuesday in MLB in the American League with the Tigers -$132/A's.

For Wednesday in MLB in the American League "Mr Chalk" likes the Orioles -$160/Rangers.

Ben lee is 2-1 +$145 for week Thirty Six 164-190-5 -$2984 thru Thirty Five weeks.

"Mr Chalk" is 44-34 -$396 for the 2014 MLB season.

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted

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Doc's Sports Picks For Major League Baseball 7/2


3-unit Play Take #956 Pittsburgh Pirates (-150) over Arizona Diamondbacks (7:05pm EST)


3-unit Play Take #970 Houston Astros (+105) over Seattle Mariners (2:10pm EST)


4-unit Play Take #971 Texas Rangers (+150) over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm EST)


3-unit Play Take #978 Los Angeles Dodgers (-150) over Cleveland Indians (3:10pm EST)


3-unit Play Take #980 Boston Red Sox (-155) over Chicago Cubs (7:10pm EST)

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Primetime Sports Picks

4 Unit --> Cincinnati (Cueto) -130 over San Diego (Ross)
3 Unit --> Philadelphia (Hamels) -130 over Miami (Koehler)
3 Unit --> Chicago White Sox (Danks) +115 over L.A. Angels (Skaggs)

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Steve Stevens

Tigers -110

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Big Bet Tiger

Total UNDER 9 VERLANDER/CHAVEZ Tigers/Athletics