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MLB
Kansas City @ CLEVELAND
Kansas City +100 over CLEVELAND
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)
The Royals are quietly heating up again with four wins in their past six games and now just might be the time to get back on their wagon. K.C. has scored 30 runs over their past seven games and now get their chance against Josh Tomlin. Tomlin refuses to give up walks, which usually keeps him in games but he’s still a much better option as a pooch than he is as a favorite. Tomlin’s 3.78 ERA looks rock solid but nearly every metric suggests Tomlin is going to fall apart at some point. He has a fly-ball bias profile, which has led to his biggest problem of balls leaving the yard. In 64 innings, Tomlin has allowed 10 jacks with seven of those occurring at home in just 30.2 innings. Progressive Field does not play well to fly-ball pitchers. Tomlin’s fastball averages only 88 miles per hour — so when batters make contact, the ball goes a long way. Tomlin’s oppBA at home is 40 points higher than it is on the road. That has led to a 4.99 ERA at home and that makes Tomlin too big a risk.
Yordano Ventura has top-of-rotation potential and if he really is figuring it out as quickly as his skills suggests, he could get there quickly. Ventura burst onto the scene in 2013, consistently hitting triple-digits with his fastball and striking out over a batter per inning in Double-A and Triple-A. The focus often revolves around his tremendous fastball — and rightly so — but this isn’t a one-trick pony we’re dealing with. In fact, Ventura is only throwing his fastball 55% of the time this year. That’s a marked decrease from a year ago and it’s been accompanied by an increase in usage of his changeup and curve. He only threw his changeup in 6.6% of his pitches in 2013. That percentage has increased to 14% in 2014 and his curve has also increased to 16%. That’s not only significant because it offers off-speed pitches to keep guys from zeroing in on his fastball, but also because it’s helped him neutralize lefties better than he did a year ago in his brief big-league promotion. Ventura has an elite 52% groundball rate and his oppBA on the road is just .233. Ventura and the Royals offer up all the value in this one.
Toronto @ OAKLAND
Toronto +117 over OAKLAND
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.34)
4:00 PM EST. Tommy Milone is 6-3 with a 3.79 ERA and he’s 3-0 at home with a 3.15 ERA. That has this very average pitcher overpriced. As none of his pitches top 90 mph, Milone relies on location and pitch mix. Lots can go wrong with all those fly-balls and line-drives and it’s not like he can get out of jams on his own either. Milone has just 55 K’s in 90 frames. He’s also been taken yard six times over his last five starts. Milone has been the beneficiary of tremendous run support, which has allowed him to pitch with big leads and go right after hitters. Truth is, Milone does not have much upside and his replacement-level performance has been masked by plenty of good fortune. Use Milone’s 4.49 xERA as a better indication of just how average is really is.
Marcus Stroman is anything but average. Selected by the Jays 22nd overall in the 2012 draft, Stroman throws five pitches, the best of which is a completely ridiculous wipeout slider, a true out-pitch with plus-plus potential. He also throws a four-seamer that sits 93-96 mph, a cutter with tremendous late bite at 93 mph, along with a change-up and curveball that are both more than show-me pitches. Stroman has a 50% groundball rate, 36 K’s in 36 innings as a starter and a skills supported 2.67 ERA over his last five starts. What’s even more impressive is that in his six starts overall, five of them have come at hitter friendly Rogers Center in Toronto and the other one came at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. Stroman now gets the opportunity to start his first game at a pitcher friendly venue and we’d be surprised if he didn’t thrive.
MLB
Kansas City @ CLEVELAND
Kansas City +100 over CLEVELAND
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)
The Royals are quietly heating up again with four wins in their past six games and now just might be the time to get back on their wagon. K.C. has scored 30 runs over their past seven games and now get their chance against Josh Tomlin. Tomlin refuses to give up walks, which usually keeps him in games but he’s still a much better option as a pooch than he is as a favorite. Tomlin’s 3.78 ERA looks rock solid but nearly every metric suggests Tomlin is going to fall apart at some point. He has a fly-ball bias profile, which has led to his biggest problem of balls leaving the yard. In 64 innings, Tomlin has allowed 10 jacks with seven of those occurring at home in just 30.2 innings. Progressive Field does not play well to fly-ball pitchers. Tomlin’s fastball averages only 88 miles per hour — so when batters make contact, the ball goes a long way. Tomlin’s oppBA at home is 40 points higher than it is on the road. That has led to a 4.99 ERA at home and that makes Tomlin too big a risk.
Yordano Ventura has top-of-rotation potential and if he really is figuring it out as quickly as his skills suggests, he could get there quickly. Ventura burst onto the scene in 2013, consistently hitting triple-digits with his fastball and striking out over a batter per inning in Double-A and Triple-A. The focus often revolves around his tremendous fastball — and rightly so — but this isn’t a one-trick pony we’re dealing with. In fact, Ventura is only throwing his fastball 55% of the time this year. That’s a marked decrease from a year ago and it’s been accompanied by an increase in usage of his changeup and curve. He only threw his changeup in 6.6% of his pitches in 2013. That percentage has increased to 14% in 2014 and his curve has also increased to 16%. That’s not only significant because it offers off-speed pitches to keep guys from zeroing in on his fastball, but also because it’s helped him neutralize lefties better than he did a year ago in his brief big-league promotion. Ventura has an elite 52% groundball rate and his oppBA on the road is just .233. Ventura and the Royals offer up all the value in this one.
Toronto @ OAKLAND
Toronto +117 over OAKLAND
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.34)
4:00 PM EST. Tommy Milone is 6-3 with a 3.79 ERA and he’s 3-0 at home with a 3.15 ERA. That has this very average pitcher overpriced. As none of his pitches top 90 mph, Milone relies on location and pitch mix. Lots can go wrong with all those fly-balls and line-drives and it’s not like he can get out of jams on his own either. Milone has just 55 K’s in 90 frames. He’s also been taken yard six times over his last five starts. Milone has been the beneficiary of tremendous run support, which has allowed him to pitch with big leads and go right after hitters. Truth is, Milone does not have much upside and his replacement-level performance has been masked by plenty of good fortune. Use Milone’s 4.49 xERA as a better indication of just how average is really is.
Marcus Stroman is anything but average. Selected by the Jays 22nd overall in the 2012 draft, Stroman throws five pitches, the best of which is a completely ridiculous wipeout slider, a true out-pitch with plus-plus potential. He also throws a four-seamer that sits 93-96 mph, a cutter with tremendous late bite at 93 mph, along with a change-up and curveball that are both more than show-me pitches. Stroman has a 50% groundball rate, 36 K’s in 36 innings as a starter and a skills supported 2.67 ERA over his last five starts. What’s even more impressive is that in his six starts overall, five of them have come at hitter friendly Rogers Center in Toronto and the other one came at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. Stroman now gets the opportunity to start his first game at a pitcher friendly venue and we’d be surprised if he didn’t thrive.
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