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Hands down, Colombia has been the most exciting team of this World Cup. I’ve released one of my biggest plays of the competition w/ them in the last game vs. Uruguay, and they didn’t disappoint us by winning “easily” the game 2-0. Here are some notes I’ve made about them
“The bad news for them is that unlike Italy and England, Colombia attacking fluidity is astonishing! Their playmaker James Rodriguez has been one of the best players of this tournament and their attacking midfield unit (Rodriguez, Cuadrado and Ibarbo) are playing quite well w/ great tempo and some beautiful passing plays between them. The difference of “dynamic” between this unit and the Uruguayans midfield unit is just huge! As brave as the Uruguayan defensive line has been in the last 2 games, we are talking about another different level w/ the Colombian attack…”
Well, Colombian’s playmaker James Rodriguez did it again… This team has great width and pace on the wings, and w/ James at great level, it is really tough to stop them because they are generating build-up plays from everywhere! Obviously, I expect Brazil’s NT coach Scolari to be focused in limiting James, but the bad news for him, is that Brazil’s best defensive midfielder Luiz Gustavo is suspended and will miss this contest. Gustavo is a KEY PIECE for Brazil w/ his great defensive positioning, and they really don’t have a good replacement for him in their roster… I expect Paulinho or Ramires to play his position but w/ way less defensive efficiency = great potential edge for Colombia!
As good as Colombia has been, I feel that their defense hasn’t been properly tested in this World Cup. Yes, they held Uruguay scoreless in the last game, but Luis Suarez didn’t play and without him, Uruguay’s attack is really poor:
“Once again (and even w/ Suarez), Uruguay had some huge problems to generate build-up plays against the Italian defense. Their lack of creativity on the midfield was well noticed and they really needed Suarez to make some “magic moves” for them because collectively, they just can’t do it. Note that their goal vs. Italy came from a set piece play.”
In the group stage, they have allowed one goal vs. Ivory Coast & Japan and even tough Greece didn’t score against them, they created plenty of good chances to score. Colombian’s duo of center-backs are slow-footed (especially the 38-years old veteran Mario Yepes) and their full-backs are super offensive-minded. This could be dangerous against Brazil’s top forwards and midfielders who will have some space to attack, and I expect Brazil to do some damage as well…
I understand that the Round of L16 produced 6 “UNDER’s”, 1 “OVER’ & 1 “PUSH” and therefore, the books adjusted their totals line for this stage w/ this conservative mindset, but these two teams have some good attacking edges. My fair line for this contest is 2.5/3 Goals and so, I’m taking OVER & Both Teams to Score in this contest!
Split the wager 50/50 like it was One “Double Dime Play”:
Pick: 2 units (Double Dime Play) on Over 2.25 Goals @ -105
Pick: 2 units (Double Dime Play) on Both Teams to Score @ +100
NOW we win.... Mark the fourth of July down, and watch closely in the coming days. We could write a paragraph trying to explain things, but we will let the results speak for themselves. Simply put... a five year analysis of the CFL has identified some strong positions. Pitching is not the key to winning MLB. Keep an eye on the runline as well. The WNBA is settling down. Wins will pile up.
ROB VINCILETTI 5* TOTAL OF THE WEEK. Have a great 4th of July!
MLB Premium Picks
Top Pick
League Date Time (ET) Matchup Pick
MLB Jul 04 ,2014 7:15p [959] Miami Marlins
[960] St. Louis Cardinals Total 7½ ov-113
at pinnacle
On Friday the MLB Totals Play is on the over in the Miami at St. Louis game. Rotation numbers 959/960 at 7:15 eastern. This one has an undefeated and super rare totals system that applies tonight and plays on home teams with a total that is 8 or less off a road dog win by 2 or more runs if the total was 8 or less and they scored 5 or more runs on 10 or more hits, provided their opponent is off a 1 run home loss where they had 5+ hits. These games have been high scoring and average 12 runs per game since 2004. Miami has flown over in 10 of 12 on Friday and the Cardinals average 5 runs per game at night. St. Louis had gone over all 4 times at home off a road win. They have L. Lynn going today and he has a hideous 6.75 era vs Miami. N. Eovaldi goes for the Fish and he has pitched over in 7 of his 8 night time starts. Look for this one to go over the total tonight.
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