7-5-14

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 358413

    7-5-14

    Like us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter

    Or Cpaw Iws for Facebook &
    Twitter@cpawsports


  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 358413

    #2
    NEWSLETTER Soccer Prediction From Robert Ferringo

    Take ‘Under’ 2.5 – Belgium vs. Argentina (Noon, Saturday, July 5)

    This total really jumped out at me when I saw the numbers released for the quarterfinals. Particularly because the juice on the ‘under,’ which was sitting at -145, was so steep. I think that the public is going to jump on the ‘over’ in this match. Belgium could’ve scored four or five goals against the United States on Tuesday. But they ran into an all-time great performance from goalie Tim Howard and were held to just two in 120 minutes. Bettors saw that and would expect the Belgians to have an easier time against a soft Argentinian defense (and no Howard). Also, Argentina has one of the strongest attacks in the field and one of the best players on earth in Messi. But after one of the highest scoring World Cups ever, I think that things are starting to even out and we’re seeing more and more games stay ‘under’ the total. And even though the public will assuredly bet this one ‘over,’ the books are defending against ‘under’ betting. The Belgian defense is immensely talented and underappreciated. Howard got all the focus in the U.S. game. But no one noticed that the Belgians smothered the U.S. attack. They’ve only allowed two goals in four matches and have been outstanding. Argentina gave up two goals to Nigeria in a meaningless third match in group play. But beyond that they have only been beaten one other time in three fixtures. This might be a spot to just hold your nose and bet against some of the most talented offensive players in the sport. Bank on the stellar defenses to continue. This is the fourth and final quarterfinal, and knowing that only three other teams remain alive could have a mental impact on these teams, who will be playing to avoid mistakes. Take the ‘UNDER’.
    Like us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter

    Or Cpaw Iws for Facebook &
    Twitter@cpawsports


    Comment

    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 358413

      #3
      World Cup 2014 quarterfinal betting: Argentina vs. Belgium
      By Pinnacle SPORTS

      Pinnacle Sports has everything you need to wager on World Cup 2014. Find odds and info on all the exciting soccer action in Brazil.

      The 2014 World Cup is now at the knockout stage, read this quarterfinals betting preview before placing your bets.

      Four European, three South American and one Central American nation make up the last eight of the 2014 FIFA World Cup. All eight nations are undefeated, all eight nations finished top of their respective groups, and all eight nations will expect to progress through to the semifinals.




      Argentina earned their place in the Quarter-finals by defeating Switzerland 1-0 on Tuesday evening. The Argentinians may have been unconvincing, but maintained momentum with their fourth successive victory in the tournament thanks to Ángel di María’s extra-time winner. They had 64% possession and 17 shots on goal but failed to break down a Swiss defense until 118 minutes of play had passed.

      Belgium also needed extra time to beat an inspired USA team 2-1, as the Stars and Stripes keeper made the most saves in World Cup history. This is the first time Belgium have reached the Quarter-finals for 28 years and they have certainly been made to earn their place in the final eight, with narrow victories in all four of their matches.

      Argentina are the favorites on the 1X2 at Pinnacle Sports, with odds currently offered at 2.120 – an implied probability of 47.17%. Belgium are the underdogs at 3.920, a 25.51% probability of victory.

      Interestingly, Argentina have covered 0% of the spread so far in this tournament, whilst Belgium have covered on 50% of occasions. Bettors can get odds of 2.120 for Argentina on a -0.5 handicap, and odds of 1.833 on Belgium +0.5. Both sides drew 0-0 after 90 minutes of play in their Round of 16 ties, and odds of 1.877 are available for under 2 and 2.5 goals.

      With just eight nations remaining, the World Cup Winner market is heating up too. Argentina are the second favorites with Pinnacle Sports at 5.030 to lift the trophy on July 13th, while Belgium are available at 11.230.
      Like us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter

      Or Cpaw Iws for Facebook &
      Twitter@cpawsports


      Comment

      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 358413

        #4
        World Cup Game of the Day: Argentina vs. Belgium
        By COVERS

        Argentina vs. Belgium (+120, +275, Draw +230)

        Belgium's plan for beating Argentina and advancing to the semifinals of the World Cup should be a simple one: contain Lionel Messi. The Belgians will have their hands full with one of the best players on the planet as they take on Argentina on Saturday afternoon at Estadio Nacional in Brasilia. Messi scored four goals in group play and set up Angel di Maria's extra-time winner in Argentina's round-of-16 triumph.

        The Belgians also needed extra time to advance to the quarterfinals, firing everything they had at American goaltender Tim Howard before finally putting two past him in a narrow win over the U.S. While Messi will provide a major challenge for the Belgium defense, the Eurpoean side will benefit offensively from the suspension of Argentina starting back Marcus Rojo. Belgium has beaten Argentina just once in four meetings.

        TV: 12 p.m. ET, ABC

        WORLD RANKINGS: Argentina: No. 5; Belgium: No. 11.

        INJURY REPORT: Argentina: D Marcos Rojo is suspended for the match after picking up a second yellow against Switzerland; F Sergio Aguero resumed training after suffering a thigh injury in the group stage against Nigeria, but isn't expected to start. Belgium: D Thomas Vermaelen suffered a knee injury late against the United States but will likely play; MF Mousa Dembele is doubtful with an injured thigh.

        WHAT THE SHARPS SAY: "Argentina have looked very lackluster ahead of the quarter final tie with Belgium, despite the fact that they've arguable had the easiest road to the Quarter Finals, Belgium must not be underestimated here, The Red Devils Expect a close game." - Covers Experts Footy Tipster

        WHAT THE BOOKS SAY: "I would have to say that Belgium is one of the surprise teams in this quarter final as we opened them at 500-1 way back when we first opened our World Cup odds to win. They face the always tough Argentinians in the first game of the day. Most of our players expect this match to end in a tie after 90mins of regulation with 42% of the action, while 31% of the action is on Belgium to win in regulation. The action on the 2.5 goal total has been mostly on the under with 84% of the action." - Michael Stewart of Carbonsports.ag

        ABOUT ARGENTINA: Teams traditionally don't favor running their entire offense through one player - but then, most teams don't employ someone as creative and electrifying as Messi. "We know he is our main player, our captain, the best player in the world," said teammate Pablo Zabaleta. "Every time we recover the ball we try to pass to him as he is the best player we have ... he will score goals." Jose Basanta is expected to assume Rojo's spot in the starting lineup.

        ABOUT BELGIUM: Vermaelen may be back in the fold, but it doesn't necessarily mean he'll be in the starting lineup. Belgian coach Marc Wilmots was impressed by the play of tandem Jan Vertonghen and Daniel Van Buyten against the American side in the second stage opener, and may opt to pair them one more time against Argentina. Vertonghen, in particular, was impressive in the round-of-16 triumph, challenging American attacks repeatedly while playing the entire match.

        TRENDS:

        * Argentina has won just six of its last 19 World cup games against European foes.
        * All six Belgium goals in the tournament have been scored from the 70th minute on.
        * Argentina leads the tournament with a 64.3-percent possession rate.
        * Belgium and Argentina lead the World Cup in shots at 83 and 80, respectively.
        Like us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter

        Or Cpaw Iws for Facebook &
        Twitter@cpawsports


        Comment

        • Can'tPickAWinner
          Super Moderator
          • Nov 2012
          • 358413

          #5
          UFC 175 betting: Weidman must be wary of Machida's KO magic
          By MMAODDSBREAKER

          The main event of UFC 175 is a five-round title fight between UFC middleweight champion Chris “All-American” Weidman and Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida.

          The current betting line for the fight lists Weidman as a -185 favorite while Machida is a +160 underdog. MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas originally opened up Weidman at -150 and Machida at +110, meaning the action is on the favorite, Weidman, to retain his title.

          Weidman (11-0) is the current UFC middleweight champion. At 30 years of age, he’s really carved out a nice career for himself, going 7-0 in the UFC with two wins over Anderson Silva to cement his place as the top 185-pounder on the planet.

          With a mix of high-level wrestling, slick submissions and power in his strikes, Weidman is a dangerous matchup for anyone in the division and, after beating Silva twice, is no doubt the top guy in his weight class.

          He was originally set to fight Vitor Belfort, but after Belfort couldn’t use TRT he was pulled from the bout and replaced by Machida, who presents a very intriguing matchup for the champ. Although Weidman will have a wrestling advantage like he always does, Machida is great at defending takedowns and it’s likely he won’t clown around as much as Silva did in their fights when the fight stays standing.

          Machida (21-4) is the former UFC light heavyweight champion. The 36 year old is 2-0 since dropping down to 185 pounds with huge wins over Gegard Mousasi and Mark Munoz that earned him his shot at the title. Overall, he is 13-4 in the UFC and when it’s all said and done, he will likely be placed in the UFC Hall of Fame.

          Known for his deadly striking, Machida has knockout power in his hands and feet and his elusive karate style makes him a hard guy for anyone to deal with. He also has very good wrestling - underrated actually - and he uses his defensive wrestling to keep fights standing and out-strike his opponents on the feet en route to victories.

          If there’s any flaw in Machida’s game, it’s that his style tends to leave him open to controversies on the judges’ scorecards and if the fight with Weidman goes the full five, that could happen once again. But it’s more likely someone gets finished, and since Weidman is undefeated so far, it makes sense Machida is the underdog, although of course he can never be counted out.
          Like us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter

          Or Cpaw Iws for Facebook &
          Twitter@cpawsports


          Comment

          • Can'tPickAWinner
            Super Moderator
            • Nov 2012
            • 358413

            #6
            MLB Weekday Series - Five Key Takeaways
            By DAVID MALINSKY

            It is once again time to round the bases from Point Blank range, focusing on those key issues from the MLB mid-week series that can lead to major profits in the games ahead.

            Royals – James Shields, and the toll of innings

            The next time Shields takes the mound the pitching forms will show an 8-4/3.93. That will not cause many second takes; if anything it would appear to be “business as usual” for a consistent veteran that has worked to a 108-87/3.80 over 269 MLB starts. But it might be time to start taking a closer look – the bells of pitching age may be beginning to toll.

            Shields turned in a solid 13-9/3.15 in his first season with the Royals LY, a strong enough bottom line for there to not be major concerns over his K-per-9 falling from 8.8 in 2012 to 7.7, and his BB-per-9 being the highest since his rookie season. He brought a reputation as a guy that could eat innings at a quality rate, and that is what he did. But over time, has he eaten too many innings?

            2013 marked his seventh straight campaign of 200 IP or more, and when post-season games are added, only Justin Verlander worked more over that span. But Shields does not have Verlander’s stuff, which means that he has had to work harder to get through those frames, and while there were some signs of decline creeping in LY, they are becoming even more apparent now. But not necessarily apparent to the betting markets – he has been favored in 15 of his 18 starts, nine times by -135 or more.

            First, ignore the W/L tally – in the six games in which he did not get a decision he was knocked around to a 6.28 tune, but bailed out by the Kansas City offense. That was most fortunate – the Royals have backed him with 5.1 RPG, despite averaging only 3.9 in all other games. His K-per-9 has taken another significant drop, down to 7.1, but while his BB rate has been terrific, he is giving up a lot of hard contact. Over the past six starts it has been particularly ominous – 50 hits vs. only 23 K. In those six games his PPI reached 18.0 on four occasions, something that only happened eight times in all of 2013.

            Shields is not going to fall off the table – he is too savvy for that, and being in a pennant race will have some of those competitive juices flowing again. But the issue of decline is genuine, especially now that he is not pitching all of his home games in air conditioning. He is not the pitcher that the markets are pricing him to be, and there will be opportunities for the savvy handicapper to take advantage.

            Blue Jays – Mark Buehrle, and those recent bombs

            Buehrle could actually snicker at the Shields workload – he has topped 200 IP in 13 consecutive seasons, and seemingly shows no sign of aging, with his 10-5/2.50 for the first half of 2014 having him on pace to have his best season ever. Don’t bet on it.

            The crafty left-hander has set a terrific ERA pace, and understand the extreme via a little context – that is a full run below any season he has had since 2005. Yet there is nothing all that different about his “stuff” – K-per-9 is at 5.2, which is his career mark; 2.3 BB-per-9 would actually be the highest since 2003, though not far off of his career tally; and a 42.9 percent ground-ball rate is not far off of his 45.4, though actually trending the wrong way. So how do the same basic pitches lead to such better results? There is one key category that got him off to the great start, and it turned in recent starts that is worth a closer look.

            Buehrle has allowed at least 20 HR in 12 of his 13 seasons as a full-time starter, and dealt 17 in the only time he came up below that plateau. But somehow he got through his first 12 starts this season allowing only two, despite the fact that his fly-ball rate had gone up. Now things are beginning to even up, with six HR over the last five starts. But it is who hit them that may really tell the tale for what we can expect going forward.

            How about this group – Derek Jeter (one HR in his other 298 at-bats); Brian Roberts (hitting .245, with three HR in his other 244); Brian McCann (hitting .224, with eight HR in his other 271); Moises Sierra (hitting .206, with one HR in his other 106); and Randal Grichuk (back in the minors after hitting .136 in 44 at-bats, with that lone dinger). That is not a very powerful cast, and Buehrle may be a short-odds favorite to be the answer to the trivia question of “Which Pitcher Gave up Jeter’s Final HR?”. It also means that it is might just a matter of time until the better hitters also find the seats, especially in the AL East ballparks.

            Buehrle’s HR/FB rate of 6.4 percent would be the second best of his career, and on only one other occasion was it below 8.0. There could be a lot of correction in that category ahead, and he just does not have the stuff to work around it – his LD% of 23.1 matches his career-high from back in 2003. He has been giving up as much contact, at as hard of a rate, as in the past, it has just converted into HR’s at a lower rate. Hence an FIP of 3.67, and xFIP of 4.16, which are much better indicators for where his 2014 is heading than that current ERA. But like Shields, his past reputation will carry a lot of weight even through a decline – he has been favored in 12 of 16 starts, and with the Blue Jays in first place in the AL East those prices will stay high.

            Dodgers – Understanding Dan Haren, circa 2014

            It is a case of being a little late to the party on this one, after Haren’s sparkling outing vs. the Indians on Monday night. But it really took time to come to terms with his transformation, preferring caution and patience as the season progressed to a knee-jerk reaction. The numbers are still not easy to believe, and when you see them under the microscope you will understand why.

            Haren appeared to be on the downside of his career entering 2014, off of back-to-back registers of 12-13/4.33 and 10-14/4.67. The Dodger uniform was his fifth since 2007, which is rarely a good sign. He was 33 when the 2013 season ended, but looked older than that in “pitchers years”, having thrown at least 217 IP from 2005-2011, which can certainly age someone that relies on power. And in both 2012 and 2013, he set new career highs for HR/FB ratio.

            With that in mind, Haren’s numbers in some key categories through the mid-point of 2014 would ordinarily scare you to wit’s end. His 6.0 K-per-9 is by far a career low, well off of his 7.6 average, and trending worse – in 10 of his L11 starts it has been five or fewer. His HR-per-9 has increased again, to 14.4 percent, and of the 132 pitchers with at least 60 IP, that puts him at #118. His swinging strike percentage is an almost shocking 6.5 (#118!), off of a career 9.4. If he was already in decline, and those numbers are factored in, this season would be a mini-disaster, right? Based on the peripherals alone, you might even project him to have already been on the waiver wire.

            But that would be Wrong. Haren is sitting on an 8-4/3.57, and he has done it via something that was visible early, but not trustworthy – he is getting ground-balls. His 47.4 percent rate is by far a career high, and it jumps off the page compared to the 39.6 and 36.0 of the previous two seasons. It was a transition that was difficult to believe through his early starts, since it was so far off of his norm, but then he put it into perspective himself, and one had to take heed - "I'm trying to do what I did in the second half of last year, to focus on location and not focus on how hard I'm throwing. Really I'm just trying to focus on keeping the ball down."

            So should anyone feel bad for missing that “second half of last year” change? In truth, it was not an easy read. He was indeed a better pitcher overall after coming off of the DL, but a 34.9 percent ground-ball rate in the first half of 2013 only elevated to 37.9 the rest of the way. There just was not enough there for even the smallest of bells to chime. But his own words, and the recent results, show that he had made a conscious change, and while all of those MLB innings can take something out of an arm, they also represent the opportunity to gain a lot of savvy. Haren seems to have done just that. The brilliant outing vs. Cleveland on Monday is not likely to be repeated, but for now the lower K counts and velocity can be mitigated – at over 100 IP in 2014, there have been enough ground-balls to be accepted as the new norm. Of course, what happens after Haren leaves games is another matter entirely…

            Dodgers – But after those starters leave…

            Isn’t it nice to have the #5 guy in your rotation working at an 8-4/3.57 clip? Over the first half of the 2014 season there has been an individual take in this space on every one of the Dodger starters, now that Haren makes concrete sense, every one of them dealing with a positive issue. As a group they check in at 43-23/3.00, the allowance a quarter of a run less than any other team, and nearly a full run better than the rest of the league. It is why they draw so much money in the Futures markets – a Kershaw-Greinke-Ryu trio in October can be dynamite, and Josh Beckett is as good as any current #4. Haren would likely be reduced to long relief, something that the team rarely has a need for.

            But you will already notice that there is something that they do need, given that those special numbers from the starters only has them 10 games over .500. It is in the latter stages where things have not worked out, and when you are as close as they are to being an October factor, it could mean some activity as the trading deadline approaches. The Los Angeles bullpen is 6-16/3.73. Only the Mets have more losses, and as a group the Dodgers are #27 in BB-per-9.

            Closer Kenley Jansen has been fine. While he is 0-3 in decisions, he has converted 26 of 29 saves, taking his career mark to 88 of 105. That 3.79 ERA may jump off the page, after his 1.88 of 2013, but you can comfortably ignore that – his xFIP is at 1.84, a career best. He has far more K (57) than Hits + BB (45), and that is with the hit count inflated by a BABIP of .388, more than 100 points above his career average in the category. His ERA will gradually drop. It is the group that needs to patch between the starters and Jansen that is struggling.

            Brian Wilson came into the season as a wild card, and in going 1-3/5.52 he has found the strike zone elusive, to a danger zone of 6.8 BB-per-9. Like Wilson, Chris Perez was a former closer with another team, and a wild card. He has not fared much better, an 0-3/4.85, at a 4.3 BB-per-9 that would be his highest since 2009. Jamey Wright and Brandon League have been decent, but neither sports the K ratios needed for high- leverage situations in the 8th inning of a close game, and while J. P. Howell is effective in his particular role, the Left/Right gap will always be there.

            It is rare that teams go after set-up men at trade time. But midway through the season Don Mattingly still does not have an “automatic” option for the 8th inning of a close game, and there should not be all that much confidence that someone from the current cast is going to step up and lock it down.

            Diamondbacks – Aaron Hill “better walk (before they make him run)”

            Any time a Keith Richards reference can be thrown in you should seize the opportunity. But as the trading deadline approaches and Hill’s name gets mentioned often, with several contenders needing help at 2B, there is an issue that the decision makers have to deal with – what happened to his batting eye at the plate? And for those of us having to generate a rating each day, it is an issue regardless of which uniform he is wearing over the second half of the season. The Diamondbacks have certainly been a disappointment through the first half, and Hill has been a prime reason why.

            Hill seemed to have found a second-life in the desert, turning in that terrific .302/.360/.522 of 2012, with 26 HR, and while injuries shortened his 2013 campaign, it was still a solid .291/.356/.462. This season has been much different, entering the 4th of July at .248/.285/.368, actually posting a negative value in WAR. You do not have to look much further than plate discipline to see why.

            In the 4th inning of a 2-1 loss to the Padres last Sunday, Hill drew a BB from Odrisamer Despaigne, who was making only his second MLB start. They did not stop the game to give him Hill the baseball, but it was almost to that point – it was his first free pass after 120 PA’s, dating all the way back to May 25 against Jose Valverde, who was appearing in what was likely his next-to-last MLB game at the time. And since taking that trot down the first base line, Hill has followed up with 15 more trips to the plate without a free pass. That is an ominous stretch for a competent MLB hitter.

            Here are the bottom lines – a 4.5 BB% that is by far a career low, and 32.8 percent below his career rate. And a 17.5 K% that is not only a career high, but a full 23.5 percent above his career norm. Those numbers are alarming when there are now 337 PA’s into a season, and especially when they are getting worse, instead of better - since the end of May Hill has contributed a .236/.243/.300 line. Over a span in which he has drawn one BB, he has struck out 19 times.

            There have been many instances in this column where the focus was on a performer that seemed to be underachieving in the box scores, but was actually playing well and merely suffering from some of Baseball’s idiosyncracies. Hill is not one of them – he has lost his patience and is pressing badly at the plate, and until that changes the downward spiral will not end. Opposing pitchers are adjusting accordingly, and so should shrewd handicappers.
            Like us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter

            Or Cpaw Iws for Facebook &
            Twitter@cpawsports


            Comment

            • Can'tPickAWinner
              Super Moderator
              • Nov 2012
              • 358413

              #7
              Saturday's World Cup Tips
              By Toby Maxtone-Smith
              VegasInsider

              Belgium vs. Argentina

              The second pair of quarterfinals take place on Saturday, and two more excellent matches are anticipates. Argentina are the favourites to qualify for the final from this half of the draw, but can someone else cause a surprise?

              First up Argentina face Belgium in Brasilia. Both teams put in unconvincing performances in their last 16 matches, before coming through after extra time. That half an hour of football will have had an effect on both teams, and the temperature in Brasilia, while nothing on what we have seen in the far north of the country, will be high. It could lead to a rather slow, patient game with few goals.

              Argentina were dreadful for much of their game against Switzerland. There was no cohesion to the team, and the Swiss could well have nicked it. Angel Di Maria scored the 118th minute winner, but the Real Madrid man, having ended the season so well, has been completely off the pace at this World Cup, which has been a major source of Argentina’s problems. The squad does not have quite the depth in quality of some others, and so only one enforced change will be made: left-back Marcos Rojo is suspended, so left-footed centre-back José Maria Basanta looks set to fill in.

              Belgium have somehow won all four games at this World Cup (admittedly against four fairly average opponents), but there has been little from their performances to suggest that they are capable of winning the World Cup. Having crashed from 500/1 in 2010 to going off at 13/1 to win the World Cup, there is a sense that Belgium have become overhyped. Nonetheless, they are still here and deserve credit.

              Argentina are the 23/20 favourites with Sportsbook.ag, and this looks a price to be piled into. The vast numbers of Argentines pouring into Brazil will almost make the match a home game for Alejandro Sabella’s side. The importance of having the crowd behind you was emphasised hugely in Brazil’s win over Colombia. Like Brazil, Argentina seem to thrive under pressure and have a way of getting the job done when they’re not playing well. A draw is 11/5 with Belgium 27/10 to win inside 90 minutes. The ‘To Qualify’ market has Argentina at 5/9 and Belgium 157/100.

              Bookies are expecting a low-scoring game: over 2.5 goals is 29/20 with the under option a 61/100 shot. In the first goalscorer market Lionel Messi leads the way at 14/5 and, for once, this may not be a bad price on him breaking the deadlock.

              Top Bet: Argentina to win at 23/20

              Costa Rica vs. Netherlands

              The last quarterfinal, and the fifth last game of the whole World Cup, sees Netherlands play Costa Rica at the Fonte Nova in Salvador. Costa Rica are the surprise packages of the World Cup, but it is a 5/22 shot that their great journey will come to an end tonight against Holland, the only team left to have won all their games so far. Los Ticos played for over an hour against Greece with 10 men before winning on penalties.

              The Dutch were five minutes from going out of the World Cup, before an extraordinary turnaround of goals in the 88th and 90th minutes put them through and sent Mexico home. The draw has opened out nicely for Louis van Gaal’s side - it’s not often you get to play a side as weak on paper as Costa Rica in a World Cup quarter-final.

              Nigel De Jong is out of the World Cup with a groin strain, and so the impressive and versatile Daley Blind will step into defensive midfield, with Bruno Martins Indi playing on the left. Either that or Leroy Fer will come in as a straight swap. For Costa Rica, Oscar Duarte is suspended, and he will have to be wary of tiredness creeping into members of his squad after going the full distance against Greece.

              I feel Costa Rica may have been unfairly written off here. While Arjen Robben is truly exceptional, this Dutch team looks pretty ordinary otherwise. Costa Rica managed to top the ‘group of death’, and the gritty win over Greece showed their mental strength. They have possibly the goalkeeper of the tournament in Keylor Navas, a defence that has conceded just twice in four matches, and a quick, dangerous forward in Joel Campbell. They are 6/1 to win in normal time and 7/2 to qualify. Holland are 1/2 to win, and a draw in 90 minutes is priced up at 63/20.

              Holland have improved steadily throughout games, and Costa Rica will tire. As this happens, Robben’s influence will grow and, in the end, I expect the Oranje to get through. It may be worth getting on the half-time draw at 11/10. Both these sides played out exceptionally dull first halves in their last 16 ties, and Costa Rica have the ability to frustrate their opponents.

              Top Bet: Draw at half-time at 11/10
              Like us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter

              Or Cpaw Iws for Facebook &
              Twitter@cpawsports


              Comment

              • Can'tPickAWinner
                Super Moderator
                • Nov 2012
                • 358413

                #8
                Today's MLB Picks

                Tampa Bay at Detroit

                The Rays look to follow up yesterday's 6-3 win in the series opener and come into today's contest with a 5-1 record in Chris Archer's last 6 starts as a road underdog. Tampa Bay is the pick (+145) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+145). Here are all of today's MLB picks.
                SATURDAY, JULY 5
                Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST
                Game 901-902: Miami at St. Louis (2:15 p.m. EST)
                Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Heaney) 13.383; St. Louis (Miller) 15.658
                Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 9
                Vegas Line: St. Louis (-150); 8
                Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-150); Over
                Game 903-904: Philadelphia at Pittsburgh (4:05 p.m. EST)
                Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Buchanan) 15.546; Pittsburgh (Volquez) 14.446
                Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 8
                Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-165); 8 1/2
                Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+145); Under
                Game 905-906: Chicago Cubs at Washington (4:05 a.m. EST)
                Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Villanueva) 15.016; Washington (Gonzalez) 17.994
                Dunkel Line: Washington by 3; 8
                Vegas Line: Washington (-150); 7
                Dunkel Pick: Washington (-150); Over
                Game 907-908: Milwaukee at Cincinnati (4:10 p.m. EST)
                Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Garza) 14.832; Cincinnati (Bailey) 13.426
                Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 7
                Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-135); 8
                Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+115); Under
                Game 909-910: LA Dodgers at Colorado (4:10 p.m. EST)
                Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Haren) 13.528; Colorado (De La Rosa) 15.275
                Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 10
                Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-115); 11
                Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-105); Under
                Game 911-912 Arizona at Atlanta (4:10 p.m. EST)
                Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Bolsinger) 14.126; Atlanta (Harang) 15.805
                Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 9
                Vegas Line: Atlanta (-165); 8
                Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-165); Over
                Game 913-914: San Francisco at San Diego (7:15 p.m. EST)
                Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Hudson) 16.719: San Diego (Despaigne) 15.724
                Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 7
                Vegas Line: San Francisco (-125); 6 1/2
                Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-125); Over
                Game 915-916: NY Yankees at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST)
                Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Phelps) 14.200; Minnesota (Pino) 15.194
                Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 8
                Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-120); 8 1/2
                Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+100); Under
                Game 917-918: Seattle at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST)
                Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 16.528; White Sox (Quintana) 14.316
                Dunkel Line: Seattle by 2; 8
                Vegas Line: Seattle (-160); 7
                Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-160); Over
                Game 919-920: Tampa Bay at Detroit (4:08 p.m. EST)
                Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Archer) 16.715; Detroit (Sanchez) 15.933
                Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 7
                Vegas Line: Detroit (-165); 8
                Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+145); Under
                Game 921-922: Kansas City at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
                Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Guthrie) 16.086; Cleveland (House) 15.009
                Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 7
                Vegas Line: Cleveland (-110); 8
                Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-110); Under
                Game 923-924: Baltimore at Boston (7:15 p.m. EST)
                Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Jimenez) 14.299; Boston (Lackey) 17.265
                Dunkel Line: Boston by 3; 10
                Vegas Line: Boston (-145); 9
                Dunkel Pick: Boston (-145); Over
                Game 925-926: Toronto at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
                Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Buehrle) 17.155; Oakland (Kazmir) 16.075
                Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 6
                Vegas Line: Oakland (-140); 7 1/2
                Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+120); Under
                Game 927-928: Houston at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
                Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Feldman) 14.425; LA Angels (Santiago) 16.094
                Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 9
                Vegas Line: LA Angels (-165); 8 1/2
                Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-165); Over
                Game 929-930: Texas at NY Mets (7:15 p.m. EST)
                Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Lewis) 14.185; NY Mets (Colon) 15.583
                Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1 1/2; 9
                Vegas Line: NY Mets (-150); 7 1/2
                Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-150); Over
                Game 931-932: Baltimore at Boston (1:05 p.m. EST)
                Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Gonzalez) 15.152; Boston (Lester) 14.221
                Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 7
                Vegas Line: Boston (-165); 8 1/2
                Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+145); Under
                Like us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter

                Or Cpaw Iws for Facebook &
                Twitter@cpawsports


                Comment

                • Can'tPickAWinner
                  Super Moderator
                  • Nov 2012
                  • 358413

                  #9
                  WNBA Basketball Picks

                  San Antonio at Indiana

                  The Stars head to Indiana today and come into the contest with a 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 road games. San Antonio is the pick (.+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Stars favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+3 1/2). Here are all of today's WNBA picks.

                  SATURDAY, JULY 5
                  Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST
                  Game 651-652: San Antonio at Indiana (5:00 p.m. EST)
                  Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 111.190; Indiana 110.244
                  Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 1; 146
                  Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 3 1/2; 150
                  Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+3 1/2); Under
                  Game 653-654: Washington at Atlanta (7:00 p.m. EST)
                  Dunkel Ratings: Washington 108.346; Atlanta 115.346
                  Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 7; 156
                  Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 9; 151 1/2
                  Dunkel Pick: Washington (+9); Over
                  Game 655-656: Connecticut at Tulsa (8:00 p.m. EST)
                  Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 109.527; Tulsa 115.612
                  Dunkel Line & Total: Tulsa by 6; 167
                  Vegas Line & Total: Tulsa by 4; 162 1/2
                  Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (-4); Over
                  Game 657-658: Chicago at Seattle (10:00 p.m. EST)
                  Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 107.404; Seattle 111.890
                  Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 4 1/2; 142
                  Vegas Line & Total: Seattle by 2; 146
                  Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-2); Under
                  Like us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter

                  Or Cpaw Iws for Facebook &
                  Twitter@cpawsports


                  Comment

                  • Can'tPickAWinner
                    Super Moderator
                    • Nov 2012
                    • 358413

                    #10
                    Today's CFL Picks

                    Saskatchewan at Toronto

                    The Argonauts play host to Saskatchewan today and come into the contest with a 9-1-1 ATS record in their last 11 Saturday games. Toronto is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Argonauts favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+2 1/2). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

                    SATURDAY, JULY 5
                    Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST (7/3)
                    Game 327-328: Saskatchewan at Toronto (3:00 p.m. EST)
                    Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 113.983; Toronto 118.901
                    Dunkel Line: Toronto by 5; 58
                    Vegas Line: Saskatchewan by 2 1/2; 54
                    Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+2 1/2); Over
                    Like us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter

                    Or Cpaw Iws for Facebook &
                    Twitter@cpawsports


                    Comment

                    • Can'tPickAWinner
                      Super Moderator
                      • Nov 2012
                      • 358413

                      #11
                      Argentina, Belgium collide in Saturday quarterfinals
                      By: Brian Graham - StatFox


                      2014 WORLD CUP SOCCER

                      ARGENTINA vs. BELGIUM

                      Kickoff: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. EDT
                      Estadio Nacional de Brasilia – Brasilia, Brazil

                      Line:
                      Argentina +120, Belgium +250, Tie after Regulation +225
                      Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over +130, Under -149)

                      Two teams coming off grueling extra-time victories in the Round of 16 will collide in Saturday's quarterfinals when Argentina meets Belgium.

                      Argentina has won all four of its matches in this tournament, with all four victories coming by a one-goal margin. After edging Bosnia-Herzegovina 2-1 and escaping past Iran 1-0, the Maracana outlasted Nigeria 3-2 to clinch Group F. In Tuesday's Round of 16 contest, Argentina failed to score until the 118th minute in a 1-0 win over Switzerland.Belgium's World Cup fate has been the same as its opponent, winning all four of its matches, and all four of those victories coming by one goal. They edged Algeria 2-1 and posted back-to-back, 1-0 shutout wins over Russia and South Korea before holding off USA 2-1 in the knockout round. All six tournament goals for the Red Devils have come at least 70 minutes into each match with the half-dozen tallies coming at minutes 70, 78, 80, 88, 93 and 105. But these wins came with a price, as several of their key players were hurting on the road to their first quarterfinal berth since 1986. Defender Thomas Vermaelen didn't play on Tuesday because of an injured hamstring, while right back Anthony Vanden Borre (cracked fibula) and defender Laurent Ciman (strained abductor) were unable to suit up either. Argentina opened the single-elimination tournament minus forward Sergio Aguero, who is doubtful to play in the quarterfinals because of a thigh injury.

                      Forward Lionel Messi has arguably been the best player in the World Cup, and has carried Argentina with four of his team's seven goals, and he also set up teammate Angel di Maria's one-timer with a perfect pass at the 118th minute to escape past Switzerland in the Round of 16. The other two tallies for the Maracana came on a fortunate own goal by Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Marcos Rojo's game-winner versus Nigeria. Although Argentina has not dominated in this tournament as many experts expected they would versus a perceived weak schedule, they did possess the ball for 55% against Bosnia-Herzegovina, a whopping 70% versus Iran, 57% versus Nigeria and 61% of the time against the Swiss. The Maracana also fired 29 shots in their last match with 22 going on goal (76%), giving them 47 total shots with 35 on net (75%) in the past two matches combined. For the tournament, Argentina has 77 shots, with 49 on goal (64%). After generating only two corner-kick chances in their World Cup opener, they have produced 35 corner kicks over the past three contests, including 13 versus Switzerland. The Maracana have played a very clean tournament as well, with just one offsides call, and 24 total fouls and one yellow card (Rojo) in group play. However, in the Round of 16, they were whistled for a whopping 19 fouls versus the Swiss, including three yellow cards (Rojo, di Maria and defender Ezequiel Garay). Rojo is not allowed to play on Saturday because of his two bookings. Argentina needs to stay disciplined because Belgium is likely to employ a defense-heavy game plan on Saturday.

                      Belgium has a pedestrian six goals in four World Cup matches, with four of those coming from substitute players (midfielders Marouane Fellaini, Dries Mertens and forwards Divock Origi and Romelu Lukaku), which shows the team's incredible depth. Starting defender Jan Vertonghen recorded the lone tally versus South Korea at the 78th minute to give his team its third straight win in the tournament, and it was midfielder Kevin De Bruyne scoring first against the Americans at the 93rd minute in the Round of 16 before assisting on Lukaku's tally 12 minutes later. Lukaku, whose underwhelming performance in group play led to his benching on Tuesday, was also instrumental in creating De Bruyne's tally, as his size (221 pounds), strength and quickness overmatched the U.S. defenders. Belgium completely dominated the Americans in that victory, outshooting them 38-14 (27-9 in shots on goal) and producing a corner-kick advantage of 19 to 4. For the tournament, the Red Devils have 81 total shots, including 55 on goal (68%). Belgium held a possession advantage in each of their first two games, with 65% possession versus Algeria and 53% against Russia, but possessed the ball for only 49% and 47% of the time in their most recent two matches. But they have also been extremely dangerous with their challenges with 72 fouls and five yellow cards issued to midfielders Moussa Dembele and Axel Witsel, and defensemen Vincent Kompany, Toby Alderweireld and Vertonghen. But Belgium's defense remains top-notch, with the only two goals allowed this tournament coming off a penalty kick as the result of Vertonghen's silly decision to grab his opponent by the arm in the box, and a 107th-minute tally by the Americans in a match they led by two goals at the time. Red Devils goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois has shown that he is clearly one of the better netminders in the world, making five saves in the win over USA. Belgium's top-notch defense could give Argentina a lot of trouble, just like Switzerland did.
                      Like us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter

                      Or Cpaw Iws for Facebook &
                      Twitter@cpawsports


                      Comment

                      • Can'tPickAWinner
                        Super Moderator
                        • Nov 2012
                        • 358413

                        #12
                        UFC 175 Preview


                        Event: UFC 175
                        Date: July 5, 2014
                        Venue: Mandalay Bay Events Center
                        City: Las Vegas, Nevada

                        Middleweight Title Bout: Chris Weidman (11-0) vs. Lyoto Machida (21-4)

                        Line: Weidman -185, Machida +150

                        Undefeated Chris Weidman looks to retain his middleweight championship as he goes up against Lyoto Machida at UFC 175 in Las Vegas on Saturday.

                        Weidman has never lost in the octagon, with his past two victories coming against one of the UFC’s best fighters of all time, Anderson Silva. However, there are some who still question how great Weidman truly is. Both of those fights ended early in the second round, with the last one ending with Silva breaking his leg while kicking Weidman. However, every time Weidman has entered the octagon, he has taken care of business. Besides the two wins against Silva, he also has victories against Mark Munoz and Demian Maia. However, he will be facing another very difficult matchup as he goes toe-to-toe with Lyoto Machida.

                        "The Dragon" Machida has gotten things back on track, winning his past two fights after a loss to Phil Davis. In his last victory against Gegard Mousasi on Feb. 15, he lost the significant striking advantage 36-28 and had to hang on to get the unanimous decision victory. The 36-year-old Machida has a ton of experience and has been in many big fights in his career, and this may be the last opportunity for him to get a chance at a belt.

                        Of his 11 career victories, Weidman has won by knockout in five of those matches. He also has three wins by both submission and decision, with five of his victories coming in the first round. The 30-year-old New York native has a ton of talent, and has the ability to win any kind of match. Weidman will have a big advantage when it comes to striking, landing 3.15 significant strikes per minute in his career, compared to just 2.64 for Machida. While he is not as accurate landing those strikes (55% for Machida, 42% for Weidman), he is extremely powerful with his punches.

                        Weidman also has a huge advantage when it comes to grappling, posting a takedown average of 4.0, compared to just 1.5 for Machida. Weidman was a two-time All-American wrestler at Hofstra University and defeated both Phil Davis and Ryan Bader in his college wrestling career. Saturday is the opportunity for the 6-foot-2 Weidman (one inch taller than Machida) to quiet his critics, however, it will not be easy against Machida.

                        "The Dragon" Machida has 21 victories in his career, with 11 of those wins coming by way of decision. His conditioning is terrific for the sport, where he has the cardio to go the entire fight with nearly anybody in the sport. However, the Brazilian has shown the ability to win any match, tallying eight knockout victories in his career, with another two coming by way of submission. The biggest advantage Machida has is the experience in the sport. Many times in UFC championship matches, the experience between the fighters heavily favors the champion. However, this is not the case in this match, as Machida has been in more big fights than Weidman in his career. At 36 years old, this may be Machida’s final opportunity to get the title. If he is able to take this fight into the championship rounds, then he has a real chance to seize the middleweight belt.


                        Women's Bantamweight Title Bout: Ronda Rousey (9-0) vs. Alexis Davis (16-5)

                        Line: Rousey -1400, Davis +750

                        Ronda Rousey looks to continue her MMA dominance as she defends her bantamweight title belt against Alexis Davis at UFC 175 on Saturday in Las Vegas.

                        For the first time in her career, Rousey is coming off a victory by way of something besides an armbar. In her last match against Sara McMann on Feb. 22, she won in the first round by way of knees to the body. Of her nine career fights -- all Rousey victories -- only a match against Miesha Tate at UFC 168 made it past the first round. Rousey has proven in her career to be too strong for her opponents, eventually taking them to the ground to get the armabr locked in. The one thing that concerns some people about Rousey is how much does she care about the sport. She has already said that she will be taking a long break after this match, so there could be some concerns on her focus for this match.

                        Her opponent, Alexis Davis is coming off a very difficult victory against Jessica Eye at UFC 170. She was able to get her fifth straight win, but by way of split decision. For Davis, she has an opportunity to become the first fighter to defeat Rousey, but it is going to take a big-time effort from Davis. She is a terrific athlete, who is as well of a conditioned athlete as there is in women’s UFC. However, she can’t afford to let the magnitude of this fight to get the best of her.

                        Of her nine career victories, eight of "Rowdy" Rousey’s wins have come by submission. All eight of those wins have come by way of armbar, with her only other victory being the knockout victory against Sara McMann in her last match. As the case is in any match Rousey is in, she will have a huge advantage in the grappling department. Rousey averages an astonishing 7.73 takedown average, compared to just 0.86 for Davis. Rousey is so strong that she simply overpowers her opponents and gets them to the ground. Any time she gets her opponent to the ground, she has a great chance of locking in the armbar. While the 27-year-old California native has not won a lot of matches by knockout, she has the powerful fists to win a fight in that fashion. If Rousey is focused and locked in on this fight, it will be difficult for Davis to get the win. However, in the UFC there is always a chance, and Davis must use her striking ability.

                        Davis has 16 wins in her career, with seven of those wins coming by both submission and decision, with her other two victories coming by knockout. She has prevailed in eight of her past nine bouts with the lone defeat coming by majority decision to Sarah Kaufman in what many regard as one of the best fights in the history of women's MMA. However, the Canadian-born Davis will have an advantage over her opponent in significant strikes per minute, averaging 4.97 compared to 3.13 for Rousey, and holds the slight striking defense edge (53% to 52%). She has a takedown defense rate of 57%, but she absolutely has to keep this fight on her feet. If the 5-foot-6 Davis is able to stand with the 5-foot-7 Rousey, then she has a chance to get the win. However, if she gets taken down to the mat, then her chances of winning may fall with her.

                        Ohter UFC 175 Bouts


                        Middleweight Matchup
                        Luke Zachrich +150
                        Guilherme Vasconcelos -185

                        Middleweight Matchup
                        Bubba Bush -185
                        Kevin Casey +150

                        Bantamweight Matchup
                        George Roop -230
                        Rob Font +185

                        Middleweight Matchup
                        Chris Camozzi -320
                        Bruno Santos +240

                        Welterweight Matchup
                        Ildemar Alcantara -150
                        Kenny Robertson +120

                        Bantamweight Matchup
                        Urijah Faber -1200
                        Alex Caceres +700

                        Bantamweight Matchup
                        Marcus Brimage -115
                        Russell Doane -115

                        Middleweight Matchup
                        Uriah Hall -400
                        Thiago Santos +300

                        Heavyweight Matchup
                        Stefan Struve -155
                        Matt Mitrione +125
                        Like us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter

                        Or Cpaw Iws for Facebook &
                        Twitter@cpawsports


                        Comment

                        • Can'tPickAWinner
                          Super Moderator
                          • Nov 2012
                          • 358413

                          #13
                          Mighty Quinn

                          Mighty missed with the Nationals on Friday and likes the Nationals on Saturday.

                          The deficit is 321 sirignanos.
                          Like us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter

                          Or Cpaw Iws for Facebook &
                          Twitter@cpawsports


                          Comment

                          • Can'tPickAWinner
                            Super Moderator
                            • Nov 2012
                            • 358413

                            #14
                            StatFox Super Situations

                            CONNECTICUT at TULSA
                            Play On - Favorites (TULSA) after having lost 2 of their last 3 games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% after 15 or more games 112-60 since 1997. ( 65.1% | 46.0 units )

                            CONNECTICUT at TULSA
                            Play Against - Underdogs vs the money line (CONNECTICUT) off a home loss by 10 points or more against opponent off a road win 99-23 since 1997. ( 81.1% | 0.0 units ) 1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )

                            SAN ANTONIO at INDIANA
                            Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is greater than 65.5 in a game involving two average shooting teams (40.5-43.5%) after 15+ games, after 2 straight games making 80% of their free throws or better 46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units ) 2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 2.0 units )
                            Like us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter

                            Or Cpaw Iws for Facebook &
                            Twitter@cpawsports


                            Comment

                            • Can'tPickAWinner
                              Super Moderator
                              • Nov 2012
                              • 358413

                              #15
                              CAPPERS ACCESS

                              Nationals-150
                              Twins+110
                              Like us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter

                              Or Cpaw Iws for Facebook &
                              Twitter@cpawsports


                              Comment

                              Working...