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SPORTS WAGERS
Seattle -1 -103 over CHICAGO
Hector Noesi has appeared in 82 games since 2011 with 33 of those coming as a starter. His ERA year by year including this year: 4.47, 5.82, 6.59, 5.07 and 5.33 That translates into a career ERA of 5.47 and 36 of Noesi’s appearances occurred when he was a Mariner pitching half his games in an extreme pitcher’s park. Noesi’s groundball/line-drive/fly-ball is 38%/22%/40% and that is exactly the same as he’s posted over his career. In his 33 career starts, he has seven quality one’s. Noesi also took abuse at Tacoma (5.83 ERA) last year, which indicates that his promotions were not merit-based. We've seen worse base skills but he needs some extra fastball juice or a more of a groundball lean to take the next step. That’s never happened and we're not optimistic that it will happen. At U.S. Cellular, Noesi has walked 20 batters in 44 innings, he’s 1-4 with a 5.94 ERA, an xERA of 5.60, a 1.46 WHIP, and an oppBA of .295.
The Mariners are nine games over .500. They have one of the best road records in the majors at 27-17 and their only loss over their last six games occurred against Cy Young front-runner, Chris Sale. Taijuan Walker is back with the big club after making three late-season starts for Seattle in ’13. The 21-year-old was expected to start ’14 in the Mariners rotation, but spent some time on the DL and in the minors rehabbing a shoulder injury. The prospect resume is impressive for Walker—he came into the ’14 season with the following ratings: top Seattle prospect in the M's Organization Report, #4 on the minor-league prospect list and the top overall starting pitcher in the 2014 Minor League Baseball Analyst. Walker is extremely athletic and has become even more dangerous as he’s improved his command each season. He works off a plus-plus fastball that he dials up to 98 mph with excellent life. His second plus pitch is an upper 80s mph slider. He uses both the fastball and slider to register lots of strikeouts. Rounding out the arsenal is a solid-average change-up that has the potential to become even better, and an average curve. Walker has demonstrated all the traits an ace starter should possess—plus pitches, good pitch mix, attacking hitters, durability, and good mound presence. Over 411 minor league innings, Walker has a 3.48 ERA, 9.8 K’s/9 and has held opposing batters to a .222 BA. Still awfully young and the usual perils apply (inconsistency, monitored workloads) but this is a potential gem that's close to being ready, which makes us instant investors against a free-swinging White Sox team that has struck out the third most times in the majors.
Milwaukee/CINCINNATI Over 7½+100
In the first two games of this series the Reds and Brewers have combined to score seven runs. That sets this one up for a beatable total and we’re all over it. Matt Latos has a 2.45 ERA this season but it’s a small sample size since he’s only started four games. Latos spent the first 2½ months of the season on the DL and only has 26 innings to show for this year. Latos’ 2.45 ERA is not supported by his skills. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rates of 39%/23%/38% are a disaster waiting to happen at this park and today could very well be the day we see that disaster. Latos has a lucky HR/f rate of 3% so it’s only a matter of time before those fly-balls start leaving the yard. Latos’ strikeouts are down too, as he only has 15 in 26 innings and even if he’s sharper than we expect, he’s still very likely to give up two or more. These Brewers are very capable of going deep.
Then there’s Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo was hot for a while but he’s showing signs of tailing off, just like he did last year when the innings started to pile up. In July of last year, Gallardo posted a 7.28 ERA with an oppBA of .311 over four starts. He has hammered at home in his last start against Colorado and a similar fate could be waiting for him here. Reds batters have pounded Gallardo in the past with a batting line of .296/.363/.474. This is an extreme hitter’s park and it’s not often we get a number like this when two very average pitchers hook up. We’ll look to take advantage.
Baltimore +105 over BOSTON
The Red Sox have dropped four of five, they’re nine games under .500 and they’re just a half game out of last place in the AL East. These two split a DH yesterday, which makes for a long and grueling day at this time of the year. We expect the Red Sox to be quite a bit more lethargic than the Orioles and that’s because Baltimore is a winning ball club that is in first place. You see, losing takes a far bigger toll, which is what Boston is dealing with and Jake Peavy is dealing with also. Peavy has one win in 17 starts this year. Boston has just one win in Peavy’s last 12 starts. One problem is that he's walking a lot more batters than usual, leading to the worst command in his 13-year career. In 105 innings, Peavy has walked 40 batters and he’s also throwing too many pitches out of the strike zone that hitters are not swinging at. Peavy’s velocity is down and if we look at his strike zone percentage, we can see that it is also way down. His PITCHf/x zone percentage has him nearly 4% below average this season, and he is in the bottom 15 among qualified starters in zone percentage overall. That’s not necessarily a death sentence — Masahiro Tanaka is even lower than Peavy on the list, and he is doing just fine. The difference, of course, is that Tanaka is getting hitters to swing at 49.9 percent of the pitches he throws, whereas Peavy is at just 44.1%. Another difference is that when hitters swing at Tanaka’s pitches, they make contact just 68.5% of the time, while Peavy’s contact rate is 81.3%. Neither Peavy’s swing percentage nor contact percentage put him among the league stragglers but taken in context with his zone percentage, it’s not exactly encouraging. Jake Peavy is a frustrated pitcher, who knows he can’t challenge hitters like he used to.
Kevin Gausman has made just five starts this season and just 25 appearances (10 starts) over his career. With a career ERA of 5.00 and an ERA of 5.66 last season, Gausman’s stock hasn’t soared yet so now is the time to buy low. Gausman entered 2014 as the #18 prospect in the minors and he certainly has the stuff and makeup to front a rotation. He’s an athletic pitcher (6’3, 190 lbs.) with a plus fastball, change-up, and command. He mixes his pitches nicely and can command all four, pounding strikes to all quadrants of the plate. His fastball, which can reach 99 MPH, shows excellent movement and he gets nice fading action on his change-up. The Orioles decided Gausman's slider would become his primary breaking pitch and it shows good depth and bite. Gausman was sent to the low minors recently and spent a week there to just get some work in while the team was deciding what to do with its surplus of starters. Prior to giving up five runs in five innings and getting beat by Tampa Bay in his last start on June 27, Gausman had allowed just two earned runs over his previous three starts covering 19 innings. Gausman has a huge ceiling and with the potential to be a strong strikeout/groundball pitcher, this is very likely going to be one of the last months to get him cheap. The fact that he and the Orioles are a pup against the reeling Red Sox just adds to the appeal of this wager.
Seattle -1 -103 over CHICAGO
Hector Noesi has appeared in 82 games since 2011 with 33 of those coming as a starter. His ERA year by year including this year: 4.47, 5.82, 6.59, 5.07 and 5.33 That translates into a career ERA of 5.47 and 36 of Noesi’s appearances occurred when he was a Mariner pitching half his games in an extreme pitcher’s park. Noesi’s groundball/line-drive/fly-ball is 38%/22%/40% and that is exactly the same as he’s posted over his career. In his 33 career starts, he has seven quality one’s. Noesi also took abuse at Tacoma (5.83 ERA) last year, which indicates that his promotions were not merit-based. We've seen worse base skills but he needs some extra fastball juice or a more of a groundball lean to take the next step. That’s never happened and we're not optimistic that it will happen. At U.S. Cellular, Noesi has walked 20 batters in 44 innings, he’s 1-4 with a 5.94 ERA, an xERA of 5.60, a 1.46 WHIP, and an oppBA of .295.
The Mariners are nine games over .500. They have one of the best road records in the majors at 27-17 and their only loss over their last six games occurred against Cy Young front-runner, Chris Sale. Taijuan Walker is back with the big club after making three late-season starts for Seattle in ’13. The 21-year-old was expected to start ’14 in the Mariners rotation, but spent some time on the DL and in the minors rehabbing a shoulder injury. The prospect resume is impressive for Walker—he came into the ’14 season with the following ratings: top Seattle prospect in the M's Organization Report, #4 on the minor-league prospect list and the top overall starting pitcher in the 2014 Minor League Baseball Analyst. Walker is extremely athletic and has become even more dangerous as he’s improved his command each season. He works off a plus-plus fastball that he dials up to 98 mph with excellent life. His second plus pitch is an upper 80s mph slider. He uses both the fastball and slider to register lots of strikeouts. Rounding out the arsenal is a solid-average change-up that has the potential to become even better, and an average curve. Walker has demonstrated all the traits an ace starter should possess—plus pitches, good pitch mix, attacking hitters, durability, and good mound presence. Over 411 minor league innings, Walker has a 3.48 ERA, 9.8 K’s/9 and has held opposing batters to a .222 BA. Still awfully young and the usual perils apply (inconsistency, monitored workloads) but this is a potential gem that's close to being ready, which makes us instant investors against a free-swinging White Sox team that has struck out the third most times in the majors.
Milwaukee/CINCINNATI Over 7½+100
In the first two games of this series the Reds and Brewers have combined to score seven runs. That sets this one up for a beatable total and we’re all over it. Matt Latos has a 2.45 ERA this season but it’s a small sample size since he’s only started four games. Latos spent the first 2½ months of the season on the DL and only has 26 innings to show for this year. Latos’ 2.45 ERA is not supported by his skills. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rates of 39%/23%/38% are a disaster waiting to happen at this park and today could very well be the day we see that disaster. Latos has a lucky HR/f rate of 3% so it’s only a matter of time before those fly-balls start leaving the yard. Latos’ strikeouts are down too, as he only has 15 in 26 innings and even if he’s sharper than we expect, he’s still very likely to give up two or more. These Brewers are very capable of going deep.
Then there’s Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo was hot for a while but he’s showing signs of tailing off, just like he did last year when the innings started to pile up. In July of last year, Gallardo posted a 7.28 ERA with an oppBA of .311 over four starts. He has hammered at home in his last start against Colorado and a similar fate could be waiting for him here. Reds batters have pounded Gallardo in the past with a batting line of .296/.363/.474. This is an extreme hitter’s park and it’s not often we get a number like this when two very average pitchers hook up. We’ll look to take advantage.
Baltimore +105 over BOSTON
The Red Sox have dropped four of five, they’re nine games under .500 and they’re just a half game out of last place in the AL East. These two split a DH yesterday, which makes for a long and grueling day at this time of the year. We expect the Red Sox to be quite a bit more lethargic than the Orioles and that’s because Baltimore is a winning ball club that is in first place. You see, losing takes a far bigger toll, which is what Boston is dealing with and Jake Peavy is dealing with also. Peavy has one win in 17 starts this year. Boston has just one win in Peavy’s last 12 starts. One problem is that he's walking a lot more batters than usual, leading to the worst command in his 13-year career. In 105 innings, Peavy has walked 40 batters and he’s also throwing too many pitches out of the strike zone that hitters are not swinging at. Peavy’s velocity is down and if we look at his strike zone percentage, we can see that it is also way down. His PITCHf/x zone percentage has him nearly 4% below average this season, and he is in the bottom 15 among qualified starters in zone percentage overall. That’s not necessarily a death sentence — Masahiro Tanaka is even lower than Peavy on the list, and he is doing just fine. The difference, of course, is that Tanaka is getting hitters to swing at 49.9 percent of the pitches he throws, whereas Peavy is at just 44.1%. Another difference is that when hitters swing at Tanaka’s pitches, they make contact just 68.5% of the time, while Peavy’s contact rate is 81.3%. Neither Peavy’s swing percentage nor contact percentage put him among the league stragglers but taken in context with his zone percentage, it’s not exactly encouraging. Jake Peavy is a frustrated pitcher, who knows he can’t challenge hitters like he used to.
Kevin Gausman has made just five starts this season and just 25 appearances (10 starts) over his career. With a career ERA of 5.00 and an ERA of 5.66 last season, Gausman’s stock hasn’t soared yet so now is the time to buy low. Gausman entered 2014 as the #18 prospect in the minors and he certainly has the stuff and makeup to front a rotation. He’s an athletic pitcher (6’3, 190 lbs.) with a plus fastball, change-up, and command. He mixes his pitches nicely and can command all four, pounding strikes to all quadrants of the plate. His fastball, which can reach 99 MPH, shows excellent movement and he gets nice fading action on his change-up. The Orioles decided Gausman's slider would become his primary breaking pitch and it shows good depth and bite. Gausman was sent to the low minors recently and spent a week there to just get some work in while the team was deciding what to do with its surplus of starters. Prior to giving up five runs in five innings and getting beat by Tampa Bay in his last start on June 27, Gausman had allowed just two earned runs over his previous three starts covering 19 innings. Gausman has a huge ceiling and with the potential to be a strong strikeout/groundball pitcher, this is very likely going to be one of the last months to get him cheap. The fact that he and the Orioles are a pup against the reeling Red Sox just adds to the appeal of this wager.
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