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World Cup Game of the Day: Netherlands vs. Argentina
Netherlands vs. Argentina (+240, +140, Draw +220)
The Netherlands and Argentina have played for significant World Cup stakes before - and the Dutch can only hope things are different this time around as the two sides square off Wednesday afternoon for a spot in the 2014 final. Holland has reached the final three times but has never won - and one of those losses came to Argentina back in 1978. The winner will face xxx, which defeated xxx x-x in the other semifinal.
The focus of the match on either side will be Argentina striker Lionel Messi, whose heroics are a big part of his country's return to the World Cup final four. He has four goals in five games, and set up Angel di Maria's game-winner against Switzerland. Di Maria is expected to miss the game with a thigh injury, which should take a great deal of pressure off the Dutch as they look to make it back-to-back World Cup final appearances.
TV: 4 p.m. ET, ESPN
WORLD RANKINGS: Netherlands: No. 15; Argentina: No. 5.
INJURY REPORT: Netherlands: MF Nigel de Jong was expected to miss the match with a thigh injury but has participated in training and could be in the lineup. Argentina: MF Angel di Maria will miss the game with a thigh injury; F Sergio Aguero has been declared fit to play despite a groin injury.
WHAT THE SHARPS SAY: "The Dutch will represent the most potent attack the Argies have had to face so far in the tournament. La Albiceleste narrowly got through against the Swiss and Belgians in two very mediocre performances. Both sides look evenly matched on paper and it may take the world's best player, Lionel Messi, to make the difference in São Paulo on Wednesday night." Covers Expert Footy Tipster
WHAT THE BOOKS SAY: "The 2010 runners up, the Netherlands look to get back to the final in back-to-back World Cups, which has only happened four times in World Cup History. If the Netherlands make it back to the finals it will be the second time as a Nation to make it to two-straight Finals. Meanwhile, Argentina has quietly made it to the semis and are looking to recapture the World Cup title, their first finals appearance since 1990. As for the game, the Netherlands are seeing 40 percent of the action to win in regulation while a tie in regulation is seeing 30 percent of the action. The 2.5 goal total has 65 percent of the action on the under." Michael Stewart, CarbonSports.ag
ABOUT THE NETHERLANDS: The Dutch are expected to take no chances against a dangerous Argentine side, with Manager Louis Van Gaal expected to employ a 5-3-2 system that has been wildly successful so far. Yet, as well as the Netherlands have played, there are still those who are nervous about Robin Van Persie's uneven effort so far in Brazil. The veteran striker struggled mightily in group play and was suspended for the final group stage game versus Chile.
ABOUT ARGENTINA: It has been 24 years since the Argentines have appeared in the World Cup title game, though history is on their side; they're a perfect 3-0 in semifinal matches. The absence of di Maria will no doubt be felt, but it should be mitigated by the resurgence of struggling Gonzalo Higuain, who finally scored in the quarterfinal triumph over Belgium. Enzo Perez replaced di Maria in the midfield following the injury, and is the likely starter against the Dutch.
TRENDS:
* The teams have met eight times in history, with the Dutch winning four of those while losing just once.
* Messi is even with legend Diego Maradona in caps for Argentina with 91.
* The teams last met at the 2006 World Cup, where they played to a 0-0 draw.
* The Dutch scored 10 goals in three group matches but have just two in two knockout games. -
World Cup semifinal betting: Argentina vs Netherlands
By ANDREW AVERY
The 2014 World Cup is now at the knockout stage, read this semifinals betting preview before placing your bets.
Before this World Cup, the Dutch fans were saying this was their weakest World Cup squad in years, right up until demolishing Spain in their opening game. Then, brimming with confidence, they almost lost against Australia en route to winning the Group of Death from which so many had previously predicted elimination.
After narrowly defeating Mexico in the round of 16, the attack focused Oranje went to extra time against Costa Rica, before winning on penalties, thanks to the Tim Krul gamble by manager Louis Van Gaal – Van Gaal brought on goalkeeper Krul with 30 seconds to go just for penalties.
While Argentina’s ascent was more predictable, bettors couldn’t be faulted for not seeing this path. A nation that was supposed to have a problematic defense and an easy time within their group looked shaky in their opener against Bosnia & Herzegovina and then Iran. In the knockout stages they beat Switzerland and Belgium. While this was all going on, the pre-tournament assessments of Lionel Messi as a one-man team looked dead on, at least from an offensive standpoint.
A critical question bettors must answer revolves around how these nations will deal with opposition superstars. At present, 4 players (Messi, Robin van Persie, Gonzalo Higuain and Arjen Robben) are priced at 3.62 or better to score, in part because of the questions remaining about each nation’s defense.
Netherlands have only managed two clean sheets, one of which saw them fail to score themselves; Argentina’s clean sheets have come against an Iranian team with one goal in the entire tournament, Switzerland and a Belgian nation that failed to score before the 70th minute of any of their previous five matches.
Van Gaal’s defense looked good against Costa Rica, but that team relied heavily on counter attack opportunities Van Gaal didn’t give them. Can Netherlands contain Messi in the same way? Can Argentina contain Robben and van Persie? At present, our line on Over 2 goals is at 1.95 and Under at 1.97. Bettors clearly feel that the importance of the match and the formatting of the knockout stage will keep the score low, and therefore the superstars at bay.
The Argentines are favored by our 1X2 markets, their price at 2.42 (41.3% winners equity), but have just one win and one push vs. closing spreads in 5 matches. Netherlands, 3-2 vs. the spread in this World Cup, are at 3.35 (29.9%), while the draw prices similarly at 3.24.Comment
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van Persie status up in the air against Argentina
Andrew Caley
Netherlands striker Robin van Persie is doubtful for the World Cup semi final against Argentina Wednesday due to a stomach problem.
The Netherlands is currently a +231 underdog in three-way betting versus Argentina (+146), according to Pinnacle Sports.Comment
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SPORTSWAGERS
FIFA World Cup
Netherlands +134 over Argentina
BEST LINE: Pinnacle +134 (Asian Handicap)
(Risking 1 units - To Win: 1.34)
This is an (Asian) Handicap wager. In other words, if the game is tied after regulation time, it’s a push.
Lionel Messi is the best footballer in the world and there is no disputing that. However, the Dutch are on a mission and seemingly cannot be stopped. Despite all the adversities and peril that has befallen the Dutch, they seemingly have the Luck of the Irish. The Netherlands escaped Mexico, scoring two goals in the final ten minutes of their fixture, capped off by a penalty kick that was certainly controversial. Nevertheless, Wesley Sneijder has been a catalyst for the Lions, as he has struck more wood than a carpenter. The Dutch overcame the mighty Ticos of Costa Rica in a penalty shootout, despite harsh luck and an apparent kismet from the Soccer Gods for Costa Rica. The Dutch have been contemplating and pontificating over their 2010 defeat against Spain and seemingly it has been the motivating force behind this Robin Van Persie led squad. The Dutch have another great playmaker in Arjen Robben, who has also been an offensive creator for this club throughout the tournament.
There is no clear cut favorite for this fixture. Argentina is a significant favorite in this because of the geographical orientation of the FIFA tournament and the play of one, Lionel Messi. However, Argentina has lived dangerously throughout the tournament and seems like a human team subtracting number 10 from the equation. Argentina has not had any convincing results throughout the tournament and it’s for that reason we give the Dutch a great chance to win this one.Comment
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Three streaking MLB bets to watch before the All-Star Break
By JASON LOGAN
The baseball season doesn’t offer players many breathers during the 162-game gauntlet from April to October. That’s why the MLB All-Star Break is always a big deal – even if guys aren’t featured in the annual showcase of baseball’s top talents.
Some teams are closing in on their division leaders and look at the final stretch before the break as a perfect time to put their heads down and go all out before some time off. Others clubs, the ones sliding back in the standings, are counting the days until time away from the diamond, clubhouse and probing media and may not be 100 percent focused on the schedule ahead.
Here are three teams to watch in the final week of MLB betting action before the All-Star Break.
Seattle Mariners (49-40, +956 units)
The Mariners are playing great ball with seven wins in their last 10 outings, heading into Tuesday’s home game against Minnesota. The pitching has been superb with Seattle giving up two or fewer runs in six of its last eight games, including two shutouts. The bullpen is the best in the majors - 2.45 ERA - with 28 saves and nine blown saves.
The M’s are third in the American League West – 7.5 games behind Oakland – and have a great opportunity to close that gap during an upcoming three-game showdown with the A’s at Safeco Field before the break.
Washington Nationals (48-40, -80 units)
The Nationals were a little slow going in the spring, especially in May, but have been picking up steam in the National League East. Washington is just half a game behind Atlanta heading into Tuesday’s interleague contest with Baltimore, having won seven of their previous 10 games.
The Nats stumbled Monday, giving up eight runs to the Orioles, but have been very stingy with the runs in recent outings. Before that loss, Washington allowed more than three runs just once in the eight games previous. The Nationals can push themselves ahead of the Braves during a road set in Philadelphia before the break – already winning four of six games versus the Phillies this season.
San Diego Padres (40-49, -1062 units)
Could one of the worst bets in baseball suddenly be on the rise? The Padres have been plagued by poor hitting all season – ranked 30th in the bigs – but their bats have come to life in recent outings. San Diego scored eight runs on July 1 and put six on the board in Colorado Monday, giving backers their sixth win in the past 10 games – a haul of +348 units.
Of course, Coors Field could have something to do with that Monday result. But so could getting out of power-sucking Petco Park, which is among the most pitcher-friendly parks in America. The Padres could enjoy life on the road before the break. They head into the All-Star hiatus off a four-game road series against the Dodgers, who have four players looking past San Diego and to the ASG in Minnesota.Comment
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Road team dominating with this ump behind home plate
Stephen Campbell
The road team has been benefiting in a big way when umpire Clint Fagan has been in charge as of late, winning 17 out of the last 21 games he's umped. Fagan will be calling balls and strikes for Wednesday's meeting between the San Diego Padres and the Colorado Rockies - making the Padres an attractive play.
BetOnline.com currently has the game as a pick 'em with a total of 11.Comment
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Mets, Gee trending Under vs. Braves
Stephen Campbell
New York Mets pitcher Dillon Gee has been a fantastic Under bet against the Atlanta Braves lately. In Gee's last five starts against Atlanta, the Under is a perfect 5-0. He'll be on the mound for the Mets when they host the Braves at Citi Field Wednesday.
BetOnline.com presently lists Atlanta as -126 favorites on the moneyline with a total of seven.Comment
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Umpire for Royals-Rays is an Over machine
Stephen Campbell
Bettors backing the Over in games Lazaro Diaz has umped have been collecting some nice profits recently. In Diaz's last 11 games calling balls and strikes, the Over is 8-1-2. He'll be behind home plate for Wednesday's contest between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Kansas City Royals.
BetOnline.com currently has the Rays as -133 faves with an Over/Under of seven for the matchup.Comment
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Third-worst money pitcher gets fresh start in NY
Stephen Campbell
Newly acquired New York Yankees pitcher Brandon McCarthy and his backers alike are welcoming a change of scenery after his trade from Arizona to the Bronx Sunday. Through Tuesday, McCarthy ranks as the third-worst money pitcher in the majors with an atrocious $-1115, but he'll have a chance to turn things around in the American League.
McCarthy gets the ball against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field Wednesday. BetOnline.com presently lists the Tribe as slight -112 faves with a total of 8.5.Comment
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tiger early big bet - boston/chicago under 8 -120Comment
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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
WEDNESDAY, JULY 9th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Wednesday, 7/9/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #15
The baseball season doesn’t offer players many breathers during the 162-game gauntlet from April to October. That’s why the Major League Baseball All-Star Break is always a big deal – even if guys aren’t featured in the annual showcase of baseball’s top talents.
Some teams are closing in on their division leaders and look at the final stretch before the break as a perfect time to put their heads down and go all out before some time off. Others clubs, the ones sliding back in the standings, are counting the days until time away from the diamond, clubhouse and the probing media may not be 100 percent focused on the schedule ahead.
According to StatSystemsSports.net Systems Analyst James Vogel here are three teams to watch in the final week of Major League Baseball betting action before the All-Star Break.
•Seattle Mariners (49-40, +956 units)
The Mariners are playing great ball with seven wins in their last 10 outings, heading into Tuesday’s home game against Minnesota. The pitching has been superb with Seattle giving up two or fewer runs in six of its last eight games, including two shutouts. The bullpen is the best in the majors - 2.45 ERA - with 28 saves and nine blown saves. The Mariner are third in the American League West – 7.5 games behind Oakland – and have a great opportunity to close that gap during an upcoming three-game showdown with the A’s at Safeco Field before the break.
•Washington Nationals (48-40, -80 units)
The Nationals were a little slow going in the spring, especially in May, but have been picking up steam in the National League East. Washington is just half a game behind Atlanta heading into Tuesday’s interleague contest with Baltimore, having won seven of their previous 10 games. The Nats stumbled Monday, giving up eight runs to the Orioles, but have been very stingy with the runs in recent outings. Before that loss, Washington allowed more than three runs just once in the eight games previous. The Nationals can push themselves ahead of the Braves during a road set in Philadelphia before the break – already winning four of six games versus the Phillies this season.
•San Diego Padres (40-49, -1062 units)
Could one of the worst bets in baseball suddenly be on the rise? The Padres have been plagued by poor hitting all season – ranked 30th in the bigs – but their bats have come to life in recent outings. San Diego scored eight runs on July 1 and put six on the board in Colorado Monday, giving backers their sixth win in the past 10 games – a haul of +348 units. Of course, Coors Field could have something to do with that Monday result. But so could getting out of power-sucking Petco Park, which is among the most pitcher-friendly parks in America. The Padres could enjoy life on the road before the break. They head into the All-Star hiatus off a four-game road series against the Dodgers, who have four players looking past San Diego and to the ASG in Minnesota.
Tuesday's MLB Roundup
•Reds' Votto Back On DL With Leg Injury: The Reds placed first baseman Joey Votto back on the 15-day disabled list Tuesday with a nagging thigh injury that is expected to limit him for the rest of the season. Catcher Brayan Pena was activated off the paternity list before a doubleheader against the Chicago Cubs. Pena will be one of the primary fill-ins at first base while Votto is gone. It's unclear when he might be back. Votto earlier missed 23 games while on the DL with a strained muscle above his left knee. It's not expected to heal completely until the offseason.
Votto was limited when he returned from the disabled list, batting only .250 in 23 games. He hasn't homered since May 10. The knee began bothering him again last week. Tests on Monday found that he has aggravated the injury. The Reds will consider trading for an experienced first baseman as a backup. Nobody else on the roster has much experience at first. Outfielder Jay Bruce made his first appearance there since high school on Monday night. Third baseman Todd Frazier also has played at first base. For now, Price plans to use those three at the position.
•Indians Place Masterson On DL With Knee Injury: The Cleveland Indians have placed pitcher Justin Masterson on the 15-day disabled list with inflammation in his right knee Tuesday. Masterson, the team's opening day starter, is 4-6 with a 5.51 ERA. The right-hander allowed five runs and six hits in two-plus innings Monday against the New York Yankees, and was pulled without retiring a batter in the third. He walked three, hit a batter and rarely topped 90 mph in his 54 pitches, throwing only 24 strikes. Masterson has given up 19 runs, 27 hits and 17 walks in 18 innings over his last five starts. He has pitched more than four innings once in that stretch.
•Twins' Nolasco To DL With Elbow Strain: The Minnesota Twins feared after that right-hander Ricky Nolasco's elbow tightness during Sunday's game against the New York Yankees might be a problem and on Tuesday announced he was going on the 15-day disabled list. The move is retroactive to July 7. Nolasco was sent back to Minneapolis for tests after meeting with manager Ron Gardenhire on Monday in Seattle. To replace Nolasco on the roster, the Twins recalled catcher-outfielder Chris Herrmann from Triple-A Rochester. Herrmann was batting .291 in 22 games for Rochester.
In 18 starts this season, Nolasco is 5-7 with a 5.90 ERA, 28 walks and 72 strikeouts in 103 2/3 innings. The St. Paul Pioneer-Press reported that Nolasco had been battling elbow soreness since spring training but that he had pitched through the discomfort without saying much to the team. The 31-year-old starter signed a four-year contract worth a franchise-record $49 million in the offseason. He was coming off a 2013 season that included a 13-11 record and a 3.70 ERA with the Miami Marlins and Los Angeles Dodgers.
"Velocity was down," Twins assistant general manager Rob Antony told The Minneapolis Star Tribune on Monday. "He hasn't been as effective with his pitches. He hasn't had the same command that he's had. Basically, everything he's done this year is nothing like the reports we had, or he's not pitching the same way he did last year."
•First-Place Brewers Keep On Sliding: The Milwaukee Brewers have been in sole possession of first place in the National League Central since April 9, and their four-game lead is the largest in any division. They're just not playing like a first-place team right now. Chase Utley hit a two-run homer, and Cole Hamels allowed one earned run in 6 2-3 innings for his first victory in a month as the Philadelphia Phillies edged Milwaukee 3-2 on Monday night, the sixth loss in seven games for the slumping Brewers. Hamels (3-5) allowed two runs and seven hits, struck out seven and walked two for his first victory since June 6 - a span of six starts.
Ken Giles finished the seventh and worked the eighth. Jonathan Papelbon pitched a perfect ninth inning for his 20th save in 22 chances. Philadelphia rebounded after falling a season-high 14 games below .500 on Sunday when Pittsburgh completed a series sweep. Dating to last season, the Phillies had lost 14 consecutive games and 27 of 28 when scoring three runs or fewer. Utley, the starting National League All-Star second baseman, staked the Phillies to a 2-0 lead in the first with his seventh homer, driving an 0-1 pitch from Marco Estrada (7-6) over the right-field wall. The Phillies extended the lead to 3-0 in the third when Utley singled with two outs. He then scored from first on Ryan Howard's single to right-center.
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Betting Notes - Wednesday
National League
•Padres-Rockies - 3:10 PM
--Stults is 1-1, 2.19 in his last two starts.
--Jurrjens gave up eight runs in 4.2 IP in his first '14 start.
--Padres won six of their last nine games.
--Colorado lost 18 of its last 22 games.
--Nine of last ten Stults starts stayed under the total.
•Marlins-Diamondbacks - 3:40 PM
--Eovaldi is 1-3, 5.70 in his last five starts.
--Collmenter is 3-1, 2.73 in his last four home starts.
--Miami is 13-8 in its last twenty-one road games.
--Diamondbacks lost six of their last nine games.
--Nine of last twelve Arizona games stayed under total.
•Braves-Mets - 7:10 PM
--Santana is 2-0, 2.57 in his last couple starts.
--Gee was 2-0, 1.35 in his last three starts before going on DL.
--Braves lost last three games, after winning nine in row.
--Mets won four of their last five games.
--Three of last four Santana starts stayed under.
•Cubs-Reds - 7:10 PM
--Beeler allowed one run in six IP in his first MLB start.
--Cincinnati won last seven Simon starts (3-0, 2.00 last five).
--Cubs are 0-5 since Samardzija trade, scoring eleven runs.
--Cincinnati won seven of its last eight home games.
--Seven of last ten Cincinnati games stayed under total.
•Phillies-Brewers - 8:10 PM
--Hernandez is 0-3, 5.50 in his last three starts.
--Lohse is 2-1, 3.77 in his last five starts.
--Philly lost ten of its last fourteen games, but won last two.
--Milwaukee lost seven of its last eight games.
--Six of last eight Hernandez starts went over total.
•Pirates-Cardinals - 8:15 PM
--Cumpton is 3-0, 3.09 in his last five starts.
--Lynn is 2-1, 0.87 in his last three home starts.
--Pirates lost their last three road games, last two on walkoffs.
--St Louis won five of its last seven home games.
--Under is 8-2-1 in Cardinals' last eleven home games.
American League
•Blue Jays-Angels - 3:35 PM
--Stroman is 1-0, 1.25 in his last three starts.
--Wilson is 1-1, 7.27 in his last five starts.
--Blue Jays lost ten of their last twelve road games.
--Angels won 13 of their last 17 games; they're 11-1 in last 12 at home.
--Twelve of last thirteen Toronto games stayed under.
•Yankees-Indians - 7:05 PM
--McCarthy was 2-0, 2.13 in his last couple starts for Arizona.
--Tomlin is 0-3, 11.40 in his last three home starts.
--New York won five of their last seven road games.
--Indians won five of their last seven games.
--Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Cleveland home games.
•White Sox-Red Sox - 7:10 PM
--Sale is 3-0, 2.89 in his last four starts.
--De La Rosa is 1-0, 0.64 in his last two starts.
--White Sox won five of their last six games.
--Red Sox lost 13 of their last 18 games.
--15 of last 20 games at Fenway Park stayed under.
•Royals-Rays - 7:10 PM
--Ventura is 4-2, 2.52 in his last six starts.
--Cobb is 2-2, 5.73 in his last four starts.
--Royals lost three of their last four games.
--Tampa Bay won 11 of its last 14 games.
--Under is 4-1-1 in last six Stroman starts.
•Astros-Rangers - 8:05 PM
--Keuchel is 0-2, 7.00 in his last three starts.
--Darvish is 1-0, 2.77 in his last two starts.
--Houston lost 15 of its last 21 games, but won last two.
--Rangers lost nine of their last ten games.
--Last five Texas games went over the total.
•Twins-Mariners - 10:10 PM
--Gibson is 1-2, 11.25 in his last three starts.
--Elias is 0-2, 8.18 in his last couple starts.
--Minnesota lost six of its last eight games.
--Mariners won eight of their last eleven games.
--Five of last seven Gibson starts stayed under.
Interleague
•Dodgers-Tigers - 1:05 PM
--Greinke is 3-1, 3.04 in his last four starts.
--Scherzer is 2-0, 1.71 in his last three starts.
--Dodgers won seven of their last ten road games.
--Tigers lost three of their last four games.
--Six of last nine Scherzer starts went over total.
•Nationals-Orioles - 7:05 PM
--Norris is 4-0, 2.55 in his last four starts.
--Fister is 7-2, 2.88 in his last ten starts.
--Orioles won seven of their last eight games.
--Washington won seven of its last nine games.
--Nine of last twelve Washington games went over.
•Athletics-Giants - 10:15 PM
--Hammel was 2-1, 2.79 in his last three starts for the Cubs.
--Cain is 0-4, 5.87 in his last five starts, 0-1, 1.35 in his last two.
--Oakland won its last six games, allowing five runs.
--Giants lost nine of their last twelve games.
--Last six Oakland games stayed under the total.
•Umpires Trends
-- Chi-Cin-- Underdogs won 12 of last 15 Wegner games; over is 7-4 in his last eleven games.
-- Atl-NY-- Over is 10-3-1 in last fourteen Barber games.
-- Phil-Mil-- Favorites won eight of last nine Kellogg games.
-- Pitt-StL-- Underdogs won nine of last 13 Foster games.
-- SD-Col-- 11 of last 15 Fagan games stayed under total.
-- Mia-Az-- Over is 6-3-1 in last ten Tumpane games.
-- NY-Clev-- Over is 6-2-1 in Woodring games this season.
-- Chi-Bos-- Under is 12-4-1 in Eddings games this season.
-- KC-TB-- Eight of last eleven Diaz games went over total.
-- Hst-Tex-- Underdogs won eight of last ten Miller games.
-- Tor-LA-- Over is 5-2-1 in last eight Wolf games.
-- Min-Sea-- Four of last five Morales games went over.
-- LA-Det-- Over is 10-5 in last 15 TBarrett games; visitor won last six.
-- Wsh-Blt-- Eight of last eleven Iassogna games stayed under.
-- A's-SF-- Four of last five Ripperger games went over; dogs won last four.
•Incredible Stat of the Day
Right-hander Max Scherzer of the Detroit Tigers is 21-3 his last twenty-four home team starts. Last season's American League Cy Young winner has gone 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA in three starts since giving up a career worst-tying 10 runs in an 11-4 loss to Kansas City on June 17. He's struck out 28 in 21 innings in that stretch and allowed one run and two hits through eight innings of an 8-1 win over Tampa Bay on Thursday. Scherzer retired 23 of the final 24 hitters he faced.
Diamond Trends - Wednesday
•ARIZONA is 8-26 (-19.8 Units) against the money line versus an National League starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 to 4.20 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ARIZONA 3.4, OPPONENT 5.2.
•LA ANGELS are 14-0 UNDER (+14.1 Units) in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA ANGELS 2.7, OPPONENT 2.5.
•SAN DIEGO is 1-13 (-15.6 Units) against the run line versus teams outscored by opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 2.9, OPPONENT 5.0.
•ALFREDO SIMON is 13-0 (+14.2 Units) against the money line versus an National League team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season.
The average score was SIMON 4.2, OPPONENT 1.8.
•KYLE LOHSE is 19-5 UNDER (+13.7 Units) versus an National League team with a batting average of .255 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LOHSE 3.8, OPPONENT 2.5.
•MAX SCHERZER is 13-3 (+11.7 Units) against the run line in home games after giving up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was SCHERZER 6.0, OPPONENT 2.6.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (LA DODGERS) - with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70% against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season - American League.
(53-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.8%, +38.9 units. Rating = 5*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -128.2
The average score in these games was: Team 5.3, Opponent 3.3 (Average run differential = +2)
The situation's record this season is: (4-1, +2.7 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (30-7, +20.8 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (150-88, +33.2 units).
•Play Against - Road teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (CHI WHITE SOX) - poor American League hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA <=3.33), with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts.
(43-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.9%, +37.4 units. Rating = 5*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (40-19 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.2, money line price: +124
The average score in these games was: Team 5.1, Opponent 3.6 (Average run differential = +1.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 27 (45.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-1, +3.6 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (31-11, +27.8 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (51-30, +30 units).
•Play Over - All teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (HOUSTON) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better on the season (American League) against a team with a poor on base percentage (<=.320), with a cold starting pitcher- WHIP >= 2.000 over his last 3 starts.
(37-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.2%, +28.9 units. Rating = 5*)
The average total posted in these games was: 7.8, Money Line=-101.9
The average score in these games was: Team 5.2, Opponent 4.6 (Total runs scored = 9.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 29 (69% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0, +3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-5, +12.9 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (54-34, +17.1 units).Comment
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ROBERT FERRINGO (World Cup Soccer)
Netherlands to Win World Cup +360
Germany to Win World Cup +260
Argentina to Win World Cup +245Comment
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EZWINNERS
1* (903) Marlins +$110
1* (917) White Sox -$120
1* (923) Twins +$130Comment
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Netherlands vs. Argentina
By Sportsbook
Netherlands vs. Argentina
Kickoff: Wednesday, 4:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Arena Corinthians
Location: Sao Paulo, Brazil
Sportsbook.ag Line:
Argentina +140, Netherlands +207, Tie after Regulation +225
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over +170, Under -192)
Argentina hopes to celebrate its nation's Independence Day on Wednesday when it meets the Netherlands in the semifinals of the 2014 World Cup.
Neither team has had an easy path to the semifinals, as the Dutch trailed Mexico by a 1-0 score 87 minutes into their Round of 16 match before scoring twice in a seven-minute span to win 2-1. The game-winner came on a disputed penalty kick. Then in the quarterfinals, the Netherlands needed a penalty-kick shootout to decide a scoreless match with heavy underdog Costa Rica. Backup goalkeeper Tim Krul, a last-minute substitution for the shorter Jasper Cillessen, saved two shots to lead the Netherlands to victory.
The Maracana has won all five of its matches in this tournament, with all five victories coming by a one-goal margin. In the Round of 16 contest, Argentina failed to score until the 118th minute in a 1-0 win over Switzerland, but got on the board in the 8th minute in the quarterfinals and barely held on for a 1-0 win over Belgium. That sent the Maracana into the semifinal round for the first time since 1990 to meet a Dutch club that will be playing in its third semifinal in the past five World Cups, a run that includes a runner-up showing in 2010 when it fell 1-0 to Spain.
While Argentina is likely to see the return of forward Sergio Aguero, who missed the quarterfinal match because of a thigh injury, the team will be without starting midfielder Angel di Maria, who suffered a thigh injury of his own in the win over Belgium. The Netherlands will once again be missing defensive-minded midfielder Nigel de Jong, who suffered a groin injury versus Mexico. His likely replacement, Leroy Fer, is also hurting with an injured hamstring is considered questionable for Wednesday.
This is a rematch of the 1978 final when Argentina beat the Netherlands 3-1 in extra time. However, the Dutch returned the favor by beating the Maracana in the 1988 World Cup quarterfinals.
The Netherlands had scored multiple goals in each of their first four World Cup matches, outscoring their opponents by a wide 12-4 margin, but were unable to score against Costa Rica despite 20 total shots, with 15 of those going on goal. The Dutch allowed only six total shots (three on goal) to the Ticos, and held sizable advantages in possession (64% to 36%) and corner kicks (11-1). But the Netherlands played sloppy in the quarterfinal win, committing 15 fouls and picking up two potential costly yellow cards (defender Bruno Martins and forward Klaas-Jan Huntelaar), while being whistled for 13 offsides. Plenty of Dutch players have tallied in the goal-scoring column in this tournament so far, a list that includes the club's top player, forward Arjen Robben (three goals), forward Robin van Persie (three goals) and forward Memphis Depay (two goals).
Superstar Lionel Messi has arguably been the best player in the World Cup, and has carried Argentina with four of his team's seven goals, and he also set up teammate Angel di Maria's one-timer with a perfect pass at the 118th minute to escape past Switzerland in the Round of 16. Messi has made 180 passes in the tournament despite constant double and triple teaming from opponents. The other three World Cup tallies for the Maracana came on a fortunate own goal by Bosnia-Herzegovina, Marcos Rojo's game-winner versus Nigeria and Gonzalo Higuain's volley in the 8th minute for the lone goal of the quarterfinal victory.
Although Argentina has not dominated in this tournament as many experts expected they would versus a perceived weak schedule, they have won possession in all five matches with 55% against Bosnia-Herzegovina, a whopping 70% versus Iran, 57% against Nigeria, 61% versus the Swiss and a slight 51% advantage against Belgium. The Maracana have also fired 39 shots in the knockout stage with 29 going on goal (74%), giving them 57 total shots with 42 on net (74%) in the past three matches combined. After generating only two corner-kick chances in their World Cup opener, they have produced 38 corner kicks over the past four contests, totaling 16 in the two knockout-stage wins.
The Maracana played a very clean tournament in group play with only 24 total fouls and one yellow card (Rojo). However, in the knockout stage, they have been whistled for 30 fouls, including four yellow cards (Rojo, di Maria, midfielder Lucas Biglia and defender Ezequiel Garay). Rojo was not allowed to play in the quarterfinals because of his two yellow cards, but he will be back to help his team on Wednesday.
Netherlands vs. Argentina Propositions
First Goal Scorer
Lionel Messi 15/4
Robin van Persie 19/4
Sergio Aguero 5/1
Gonzalo Higuain 5/1
Klaas-Jan Huntelaar 11/2
Arjen Robben 6/1
Rodrigo Palacio 13/2
Ezequiel Lavezzi 15/2
Memphis Depay 8/1
Jeremain Lens 8/1
Wesley Sneijder 8/1
Georginio Wijnaldum 17/2
Maxi Rodriguez 17/2
Dirk Kuyt 19/2
Ricardo Alvarez 12/1
Augusto Fernandez 14/1
Leroy Fer 16/1
Enzo Perez 18/1
Jonathan de Guzman 18/1
Jordy Clasie 20/1
Lucas Biglia 22/1
Fernando Gago 25/1
Paul Verhaegh 28/1
Federico Fernandez 28/1
Pablo Zabaleta 33/1
Martin Demichelis 33/1
Marcos Rojo 33/1
Jose Basanta 33/1
Joel Veltman 33/1
Javier Mascherano 33/1
Stefan de Vrij 33/1
Ezequiel Garay 33/1
Daryl Janmaat 33/1
Daley Blind 33/1
Ron Vlaar 33/1
Bruno Martins Indi 33/1
Terence Kongolo 40/1
Hugo Campagnaro 40/1
To Score Anytime
Lionel Messi 1/1
Robin van Persie 6/5
Gonzalo Higuain 17/10
Sergio Aguero 17/10
Klaas-Jan Huntelaar 7/4
Arjen Robben 7/4
Rodrigo Palacio 2/1
Ezequiel Lavezzi 12/5
Wesley Sneijder 13/5
Memphis Depay 11/4
Dirk Kuyt 3/1
Jeremain Lens 3/1
Maxi Rodriguez 7/2
Ricardo Alvarez 19/5
Georginio Wijnaldum 9/2
Augusto Fernandez 5/1
Jonathan de Guzman 6/1
Enzo Perez 6/1
Leroy Fer 6/1
Fernando Gago 7/1
Lucas Biglia 7/1
Jordy Clasie 15/2
Marcos Rojo 9/1
Javier Mascherano 9/1
Pablo Zabaleta 9/1
Federico Fernandez 9/1
Ezequiel Garay 9/1
Daley Blind 19/2
Ron Vlaar 19/2
Bruno Martins Indi 19/2
Stefan de Vrij 19/2
Daryl Janmaat 11/1
Jose Basanta 11/1
Hugo Campagnaro 11/1
Martin Demichelis 11/1
Joel Veltman 11/1
Paul Verhaegh 11/1
Terence Kongolo 16/1Comment
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