7-9-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wednesday's Semifinal
By Toby Maxtone-Smith
VegasInsider

Argentina vs. Netherlands

Well I was right about one thing yesterday: it was certainly a memorable match. But everything else I got spectacularly wrong. There was always a chance Brazil might get thrashed, but nobody could have predicted what happened in Belo Horizonte. Germany’s 7-1 win will be one of those ‘Where were you when’ games. They will now play either Argentina or Netherlands in the World Cup final in Rio de Janeiro.

Well I was right about one thing yesterday: it was certainly a memorable match. But everything else I got spectacularly wrong. There was always a chance Brazil might get thrashed, but nobody could have predicted what happened in Belo Horizonte. Germany’s 7-1 win will be one of those ‘Where were you when’ games. They will now play either Argentina or Netherlands in the World Cup final in Rio de Janeiro.

This match is a repeat of the 1978 World Cup final (Argentina 3-1 Holland). The reward for Argentina is a repeat of the 1990 final (Germany 1-0 Argentina), and the reward for the Dutch is a repeat of the 1974 final (West Germany 2-1 Holland). After Germany’s unbelievable show of strength, the winner will go into the final as outsiders.

Argentina have managed to win every game at the World Cup so far (although they needed extra time to see off Switzerland), but they have been far from convincing. Rather like Brazil with Neymar, there is a suspicion that everything would fall apart were it not for Lionel Messi. The defence and goalkeeper are uncertain, there is not a huge amount of creativity in midfield, and Gonzalo Higuain and Sergio Aguero have both disappointed.

Alejandro Sabella has a big selection dilemma: Angel Di Maria is injured. There are few players in world football like Di Maria, let alone in the Argentine squad, so Sabella cannot make a like-for-like change. He will either bring in Rodrigo Palacio, and play four very attacking players, or Lucas Biglia will slot in alongside Fernando Gago, or he will return to the 5 at the back he tried (unsuccessfully) in the first half against Bosnia.

The Netherlands have not really impressed since their win over Spain on the first match day, but Argentina are the most similar side to Spain they have yet faced. Like Spain, they will play a possession game no matter what and, like Spain, they can leave their defence exposed. Nigel De Jong looks set to come back into the team. Despite concerns over his injury, they will need him to combat Messi. The midfield duo they played in the quarters against Costa Rica of Georginho Wijnaldum and Wesley Sneijder simply would not be able to do this.

Both teams have one outstanding player. Both sides look to this player for most of their attacking inspiration, and the priority of both sides’ defences will be to combat this key player. For Argentina it is Lionel Messi; for Holland it is Arjen Robben. Nigel De Jong will likely man-mark Messi, while none of the Argentine defenders are good enough to take on Robben one-on-one. They will look to crowd him out, but given his recent performances, this will be a tough ask.

I’m siding with the outsiders Holland here to qualify for the final at 11/10 with Sportsbook.ag. Argentina are nowhere near as naive as Brazil, nor are Holland as ruthless as Germany, but there is a coolness under pressure to the European teams that the South Americans don’t have. It is hard to see how Argentina will cope with Robben, who simply never has a quiet game, and there has been little in Argentina’s performances so far to suggest that the Dutch defence, that has exceeded expectations so far, will be greatly troubled, other than by Messi.

I’d be happier punting on the ‘To Qualify’ market rather than the match winner market where the Dutch are 19/10. I don’t see this being a high-scoring game, and there is a strong likelihood of extra time. This is reflected in a draw being quite short at 9/4. Argentina are the 3/2 favourites.

In the goalscorer markets, Bayern Munich man Robben looks the pick of the bunch. He plays as a more orthodox striker for his country than at club level, and at 9/2 to break the deadlock he looks the value wager. However if you can have an in-play bet on him to score next from about an hour onwards, this would look the best way to go. Robben’s influence grows during matches as defences tire. He was the inspiration behind their late comeback against Mexico in the fiery heat of Fortaleza, and he tore Spain apart in the second half of their 5-1 win on the second day of the World Cup. He will most likely be 9/2 in-play as well.

Top Bet: Netherlands to qualify at 11/10

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Netherlands vs. Argentina Betting Preview and Pick
By: Hugh Wilson

Netherlands and Argentina face off in the second World Cup semifinal in Brazil on Wednesday (4 p.m. ET, ESPN), with Oranje looking to go one better than four years ago, when they lost in the final to Spain, and the Albiceleste looking to lift the trophy for the first time since 1986.

Alejandro Sabella’s men have reached the final four for the first time since 1990, where they went onto beat Italy before losing in the final to West Germany.

Despite their status as favorites on Wednesday, Argentina will not be counting their chickens as they face a tough match against Netherlands, and there appears to be little to choose between the sides.

Sabella’s men beat Belgium in a tight contest in the quarterfinals, with Gonzalo Higuain’s goal the difference with the South Americans winning 1-0. The LVH SuperBook prices Argentina at +140 odds to be victorious against Oranje in normal time (90 minutes plus injury time).

Netherlands kicked off their World Cup in Brazil in style with a 5-1 win over defending champions Spain. Since that result, however, Louis van Gaal’s men have not played to their true potential, struggling past Australia in the group stage then beating Mexico with two late goals in the last 16 before needing penalties to get past Costa Rica in the quarterfinals.

The Dutch have not lost to Argentina in their last four encounters, winning two and drawing two. The LVH prices them at +220 on the three-way result to make their second successive World Cup final. The Vegas bet shop offers the draw at the same +220 odds.

The SuperBook has Argentina priced at -140 to advance to the final, and the Netherlands listed at odds of +120.

Apart from netting three goals against Nigeria, Argentina have not looked deadly in front of goal, with only Lionel Messi making an impact on the scoresheet regularly.

Netherlands, however, are the highest scorers in the competition, scoring 12 goals so far. Despite this, they missed numerous chances against Costa Rica in 120 minutes and failed to score. Expect a tight match in Sao Paulo, but the posted total of 2 goals at the LVH (OVER -115, UNDER -105) is too low to go UNDER.

Instead it is worth looking at the highest-scoring-half market, available outside of Las Vegas. Netherlands have come alive in the second half of their World Cup matches so far in Brazil, with 80 per cent of their goals being scored in the second period. Just under half of the goals that they have netted have come between the 75-90 minute mark.

With Argentina scoring over 60 percent of their goals in the second half of their World Cup matches, the price of the second 45 minutes to have the most goals at +120 is the play.

Bet of the day: Second half to be the highest scoring half at +120 (6/5)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Netherlands vs. Brazil: 2014 FIFA World Cup Semifinals Preview
ATSConsultants

Lionel Messi may have to dribble through the entire Dutch team to get to the World Cup final. Messi nearly accomplished that feat in the quarterfinal match against Belgium. The Netherlands provides a huge hurdle to the Argentines led by Arjen Robben and Robin van Persie. We'll preview the Netherlands vs. Argentina on Wednesday at 4pmET from Rio De Janeiro.

Argentina and the Netherlands have a long history in the World Cup, which including the 1978 finals when Rob Rensenbrink's shot hit the post right before full time with the scores tied at 1-1. Argentina went on to win 3-1 in extra time.

In 1998, the Dutch were led by Dennis Bergkamp's goal that knocked Argentina out of the quarterfinals in France.

The Netherlands have two of the top players in the world in Arjen Robben and Robin van Persie. Neither scored a goal in their shootout win over Coast Rica to reach the semifinals.

Both have three goals though van Persie has reportedly been hampered a stomach ailment and may not start. Memphis Depay has two of the team's 12 goals.

The Netherlands will be without powerful midfielder Nigel de Jong, who has a torn groin muscle. Leroy Fer, a possible replacement, is recovering from a hamstring injury.

The key move in that match against Costa Rica was made by coach Louis van Gaal, who substituted goalkeeper Jasper Cillessen for the taller Tim Krul and that hampered Costa Rica from scoring in the shootout.

Argentina relies on Messi and he'll have to be even more on his own against the Netherlands. Argentina will be without Real Madrid winger Angel Di Maria, who suffered a right thigh injury in the first half of their 1-0 victory over Belgium. Striker Sergio Aguero has a similar issue but was declared fit.

Di Maria scored the extra-time winner against Switzerland in the knockout round and set up Gonzalo Higuain's winning goal in the first half against Belgium on Saturday.

The underrated factor of Argentina is their defense. Martin Demichelis, who plays for Manchester City alongside the great Belgium defender Vincent Kompany, did a great job on the Belgium attack in the penalty area. He eliminated everything in the air.

World Cup Semifinals Odds: Argentina: +140; Netherlands: +220; Draw: +210. Total: 2.0.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Argentina, Netherlands clash on Wednesday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox


2014 WORLD CUP SOCCER

NETHERLANDS vs. ARGENTINA

Kickoff: Wednesday, 4:00 p.m. EDT
Arena Corinthians – Sao Paulo, Brazil

Line:
Argentina +140, Netherlands +207, Tie after Regulation +225
Over/Under: 2.5 Goals (Over +170, Under -192)

Argentina hopes to celebrate its nation's Independence Day on Wednesday when it meets the Netherlands in the semifinals of the 2014 World Cup.

Neither team has had an easy path to the semifinals, as the Dutch trailed Mexico by a 1-0 score 87 minutes into their Round of 16 match before scoring twice in a seven-minute span to win 2-1. The game-winner came on a disputed penalty kick. Then in the quarterfinals, the Netherlands needed a penalty-kick shootout to decide a scoreless match with heavy underdog Costa Rica. Backup goalkeeper Tim Krul, a last-minute substitution for the shorter Jasper Cillessen, saved two shots to lead the Netherlands to victory. The Maracana has won all five of its matches in this tournament, with all five victories coming by a one-goal margin. In the Round of 16 contest, Argentina failed to score until the 118th minute in a 1-0 win over Switzerland, but got on the board in the 8th minute in the quarterfinals and barely held on for a 1-0 win over Belgium. That sent the Maracana into the semifinal round for the first time since 1990 to meet a Dutch club that will be playing in its third semifinal in the past five World Cups, a run that includes a runner-up showing in 2010 when it fell 1-0 to Spain. While Argentina is likely to see the return of forward Sergio Aguero, who missed the quarterfinal match because of a thigh injury, the team will be without starting midfielder Angel di Maria, who suffered a thigh injury of his own in the win over Belgium. The Netherlands will once again be missing defensive-minded midfielder Nigel de Jong, who suffered a groin injury versus Mexico. His likely replacement, Leroy Fer, is also hurting with an injured hamstring is considered questionable for Wednesday. This is a rematch of the 1978 final when Argentina beat the Netherlands 3-1 in extra time. However, the Dutch returned the favor by beating the Maracana in the 1988 World Cup quarterfinals.

The Netherlands had scored multiple goals in each of their first four World Cup matches, outscoring their opponents by a wide 12-4 margin, but were unable to score against Costa Rica despite 20 total shots, with 15 of those going on goal. The Dutch allowed only six total shots (three on goal) to the Ticos, and held sizable advantages in possession (64% to 36%) and corner kicks (11-1). But the Netherlands played sloppy in the quarterfinal win, committing 15 fouls and picking up two potential costly yellow cards (defender Bruno Martins and forward Klaas-Jan Huntelaar), while being whistled for 13 offsides. Plenty of Dutch players have tallied in the goal-scoring column in this tournament so far, a list that includes the club's top player, forward Arjen Robben (three goals), forward Robin van Persie (three goals) and forward Memphis Depay (two goals).

Superstar Lionel Messi has arguably been the best player in the World Cup, and has carried Argentina with four of his team's seven goals, and he also set up teammate Angel di Maria's one-timer with a perfect pass at the 118th minute to escape past Switzerland in the Round of 16. Messi has made 180 passes in the tournament despite constant double and triple teaming from opponents. The other three World Cup tallies for the Maracana came on a fortunate own goal by Bosnia-Herzegovina, Marcos Rojo's game-winner versus Nigeria and Gonzalo Higuain's volley in the 8th minute for the lone goal of the quarterfinal victory. Although Argentina has not dominated in this tournament as many experts expected they would versus a perceived weak schedule, they have won possession in all five matches with 55% against Bosnia-Herzegovina, a whopping 70% versus Iran, 57% against Nigeria, 61% versus the Swiss and a slight 51% advantage against Belgium. The Maracana have also fired 39 shots in the knockout stage with 29 going on goal (74%), giving them 57 total shots with 42 on net (74%) in the past three matches combined. After generating only two corner-kick chances in their World Cup opener, they have produced 38 corner kicks over the past four contests, totaling 16 in the two knockout-stage wins. The Maracana played a very clean tournament in group play with only 24 total fouls and one yellow card (Rojo). However, in the knockout stage, they have been whistled for 30 fouls, including four yellow cards (Rojo, di Maria, midfielder Lucas Biglia and defender Ezequiel Garay). Rojo was not allowed to play in the quarterfinals because of his two yellow cards, but he will be back to help his team on Wednesday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wednesday's Tip Sheet
By Kevin Rogers

Yankees at Indians – 7:05 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
NYY: McCarthy (3-10, 5.01 ERA w/ARZ)
CLE: Tomlin (5-6, 4.11 ERA)

Series recap: These two teams have split the first two games as the Indians knocked off the Yankees as +135 home underdogs on Tuesday, 5-3. New York won by that exact score on Monday as a ‘dog, as the Yankees are 8-2 in the last 10 meetings with Cleveland since 2012.

What to watch for: McCarthy makes his Yankees’ debut after getting traded from the Diamondbacks, as the righty is coming off consecutive road victories at Pittsburgh and San Diego. In spite of last night’s loss, the Yankees are 5-2 in their last seven road contests, while posting the ‘over’ in seven of the past 10 away games. The Indians own a 5-1 record in their last six Game 3’s of a home series, while winning five of their past six home contests against AL East opponents.

Nationals at Orioles – 7:05 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
WSH: Fister (7-2, 2.93 ERA)
BAL: Norris (7-5, 3.62 ERA)

Series recap: Following Monday’s 8-2 victory in extra-innings by the Orioles at Nationals Park, bad weather postponed Tuesday’s contest until August. The Orioles have won six of the last seven meetings with their Beltway rival, as Baltimore cashed tickets of +175 with six runs in the 11th inning on Monday.

What to watch for: Norris makes his first start since June 21, as Baltimore has won each of the last four starts made by the righty prior to a stint on the disabled list. The Nationals have stumbled to a 4-7 record the last 11 road games since winning three straight at San Francisco in early June. Washington has compiled an 8-2 record in Fister’s past 10 starts, but both defeats came on the highway.

Royals at Rays – 7:10 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
KC: Ventura (6-7, 3.07 ERA)
TB: Cobb (4-6, 4.28 ERA)

Series recap: Kansas City cruised past Tampa Bay on Monday, 6-0, but the Rays rebounded with a 4-3 home triumph on Tuesday. Tampa Bay is riding an 11-3 stretch the past 14 games, as the Rays look to improve on a 3-8 record in the last 11 matchups with the Royals.

What to watch for: The Royals have won three of Ventura’s four starts as an underdog this season, but the lone defeat came at home to Tampa Bay back in April in a 1-0 setback. Cobb has struggled at Tropicana Field, as the Rays have posted a 1-5 record in his six home starts, while the righty is facing the Royals for the first time since suffering a head injury on a line-drive last June that sidelined him for two months.

Pirates at Cardinals – 8:15 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
PIT: Cumpton (3-2, 4.61 ERA)
STL: Lynn (9-6, 3.17 ERA)

Series recap: The Cardinals finished off a pair of victories over their division rivals with walk-off homers on consecutive nights. St. Louis topped Pittsburgh on Monday, 2-0 with a two-run homer, while receiving a solo shot from Kolten Wong in last night’s 5-4 triumph as -110 favorites. Pittsburgh suffered back-to-back road losses for the first time since late May against the Mets, while falling to 12-5 in the last 17 games overall.

What to watch for: St. Louis has cashed the ‘under’ in seven of Lynn’s previous nine starts, including five of the last six outings at Busch Stadium. The Pirates have dropped four of five visits to St. Louis this season, but Pittsburgh owns a 4-1 record in Cumpton’s five starts since the beginning of June.

Athletics at Giants – 10:10 PM EST

Probable Pitchers:
OAK: Hammel (8-5, 2.98 ERA w/CHC)
SF: Cain (1-7, 4.27 ERA)

Series recap: The A’s have cruised past the Giants in each of the first two contests of this four-game set. Oakland limited San Francisco to just one run in the two victories, while winning last night, 5-1 as -155 home favorites. The Bay Bridge Series has been owned by the A’s of late, as Oakland is 6-1 in the last seven meetings with San Francisco.

What to watch for: Hammel makes his Oakland debut after getting acquired from the Cubs this past weekend, as the righty was 5-2 in seven home starts with Chicago. It’s been a tough season for Cain, as San Francisco is 0-5 in his past five outings in spite of allowing just two earned runs in his last two trips to the mound. The home-cooking has dried up for the Giants, who have put together a dreadful 3-14 record in the past 17 games at AT&T Park, while scoring two runs or less in seven of the last 10 home contests.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

'Rubber Match'

The closing matchup of a three game series is today’s baseball betting focus as Colorado takes on San Diego at Coors Field. Colorado on a 4-18 skid thanks in large part to a pitching staff that has given up a whopping 6.31 runs/game have Jair Jurrjens taking the ball. That hardly bodes well for Rockies, in his first start for Colorado Jurrjens was hit for eight runs in 4 2/3 innings. On the other mound, San Diego will count on Eric Stults carrying a 3-11 record, 4.96 ERA to the mound. Despite having the most losses in the Majors and a dreadful 0-7 record with a 5.44 ERA in road stadiums (2-7 TSR) they're is hope for Friars. The left-hander has shown positive signs the past three outings recording a 1.86 ERA which includes tossing seven shutout innings in a victory last outing. Stults owning a career 8-1 TSR vs Colorado including 4-1 with Padres, Rockies on a 2-7 skid vs the NL West, 1-7 slide vs a left-handed starter the nod is towards Padres.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Free Play 16-2 run WED Seattle w/ Elias -150

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gamblers Data

Free Plays Wednesday

Blue Jays +140

Kansas City +120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's MLB Picks

Houston at Texas

The Astros look to follow up last night's 8-3 in over the Rangers as they face a Texas team that is 2-12 in its last 14 games after allowing 5 runs or more in the previous game. Houston is the pick (+170) according to Dunkel, which has the Astros favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Houston (+170). Here are all of today's MLB picks.

WEDNESDAY, JULY 9 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: San Diego at Colorado (3:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Stults) 12.138; Colorado (Jurrjens) 14.589 Dunkel Line: Colorado by 2 1/2; 12 Vegas Line: Colorado (-110); 11 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-110); Over

Game 903-904: Miami at Arizona (3:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Eovaldi) 14.677; Arizona (Collmenter) 13.182 Dunkel Line: Miami by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Arizona (-130); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Miami (+110); Under

Game 905-906: Atlanta at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Santana) 14.715; NY Mets (Gee) 15.882 Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 6 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-130); 7 Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+110); Under

Game 907-908: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Beeler) 15.527; Cincinnati (Simon) 17.190 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-180); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-180); Over

Game 909-910: Philadelphia at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hernandez) 15.167; Milwaukee (Lohse) 14.077 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-200); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+170); Under

Game 911-912: Pittsburgh at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Cumpton) 13.677; St. Louis (Lynn) 16.140 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-140); 8 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-140); Over

Game 913-914: Toronto at LA Angels (3:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Stroman) 16.303; LA Angels (Wilson) 15.484 Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 7 Vegas Line: LA Angels (-160); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+140); Under

Game 915-916: NY Yankees at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (McCarthy) 15.855; Cleveland (Tomlin) 17.485 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: Cleveland (-115); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-115); Over

Game 917-918: Chicago White Sox at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Sale) 16.942; Boston (De La Rosa) 15.473 Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-135); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-135); Over

Game 919-920: Kansas City at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Ventura) 14.855; Tampa Bay (Cobb) 13.885 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 6 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-140); 7 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+120); Under

Game 921-922: Houston at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Keuchel) 16.388; Texas (Darvish) 15.366 Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Texas (-200); 8 Dunkel Pick: Houston (+170); Under

Game 923-924: Minnesota at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Gibson) 15.778; Seattle (Elias) 17.178 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Seattle (-150); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-150); Over

Game 925-926: LA Dodgers at Detroit (1:08 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Greinke) 15.549; Detroit (Scherzer) 14.448 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 6 Vegas Line: Detroit (-135); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+115); Under

Game 927-928: Washington at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Roark) 13.286; Baltimore (Chen) 14.650 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: Baltimore (-115); 9 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-115); Over

Game 929-930: Oakland at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Hammel) 15.138; San Francisco (Cain) 13.772 Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Oakland (-120); 7 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-120); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA Basketball Picks

Seattle at Phoenix

The Storm head to Phoenix tonight to face a Mercury team that is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 home games. Phoenix is the pick (-10) according to Dunkel, which has the Mercury favored by 16. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-10). Here are all of today's WNBA picks.

WEDNESDAY, JULY 9 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 601-602: Washington at Chicago (12:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington 107.260; Chicago 114.231 Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 7; 157 Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 2; 153 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-2); Over

Game 603-604: Seattle at Phoenix (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 103.974; Phoenix 119.766 Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 16; 148 Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 10; 151 Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-10); Under

Game 605-606: New York at San Antonio (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New York 112.220; San Antonio 113.245 Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 1; 155 Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 4 1/2; 151 1/2 Dunkel Pick: New York (+4 1/2); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Five to Follow MLB Betting: Wednesday, July 9, 2014 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews

It’s getaway day for a few MLB teams on Wednesday, meaning bettors get four matinee games to wager on, always a nice thing. Perhaps a baseball/Argentina-Netherlands parlay? Two of the four afternoon games are potential playoff matchups: Dodgers at Tigers ( +900 on Sportsbook.ag to be the World Series matchup) and Blue Jays at Angels, although both of those clubs may have to go the wild-card route and face off in that one-game playoff. Here’s a look at those two games and three others Wednesday.

Dodgers-Tigers (-130, 7.5)

It’s a matchup of former Cy Young winners as Los Angeles’ Zack Greinke (Royals, 2009) faces Detroit’s Max Scherzer (Tigers, 2013). It’s not out of the question that both win another Cy Young this year. Greinke (11-4, 2.66) leads the Dodgers in wins, starts, innings and strikeouts, although I don’t think you will find anyone who thinks he’s better than teammate Clayton Kershaw. Greinke has allowed just one earned run in his past two starts, both Dodgers wins. He is 5-3 with a 2.59 ERA on the road. Victor Martinez is a career .304 hitter off him with a homer and eight RBIs. Miguel Cabrera is 10-for-35 with a homer but 11 strikeouts. Torii Hunter is 9-for-33 with three home runs. Scherzer (10-3, 3.47) has allowed a total of four earned runs over his past three starts, all wins for Detroit. He pitched at Dodger Stadium on April 8 and allowed two runs over seven innings in a no-decision. Here’s guessing Matt Kemp gets the day off. He’s 0-for-18 career off Scherzer.

Key trends: L.A. is 1-4 in Greinke’s past five road starts. The Tigers are 1-4 in Scherzer’s past five against teams with a winning record.

Early lean: Why is this total not at 6.5? Two great pitchers plus an early start after a night game. Go big on “under” at -105.



Blue Jays at Angels (-162, 8)

Found this interesting stat that really has nothing to do with Wednesday’s game but that I still wanted to share: The Angels on Monday became the only expansion team in the modern era to have an all-time record currently of at least .500. The Halos started play in 1961 and they are 4,272-4,272 entering Tuesday. They weren’t the first expansion club to get to .500 as Arizona got to 652-644, but the Snakes have since slipped well back under. The Angels have the second-best record in baseball this year since May 7, and I’m still not sold the A’s will hold them off in the AL West because L.A. will make a move too. Struggling lefty C.J. Wilson (8-6, 4.23) gets the call for the Angels. He has been roughed up for 16 runs over 13 innings in his past three starts, although L.A. has won two of them. He lost in Toronto on May 12, allowing five runs in six innings. Rookie Marcus Stroman starts for Toronto. Stroman (4-2, 3.44) had the best outing of his young career July 4, shutting out Oakland for seven innings. He pitched 1.2 innings of relief May 11 against the Angels and allowed six hits and four runs.

Key trends: The Jays are 0-7 in their past seven against lefty starters. The Angels are 1-6 in Wilson’s past seven against teams with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in Toronto’s past four against lefties. The over is 5-0 in Wilson’s past five against Toronto.

Early lean: The Jays are just bad right now. However, Stroman is pretty good. I’d go Jays at -155 on the runline.



Yankees at Indians (-112, 8.5)

I can’t imagine the Yankees are done dealing because acquiring Brandon McCarthy from Arizona hardly solves New York’s rotation problems, although he should be an upgrade over Vidal Nuno, who was shipped to the Snakes. McCarthy (3-10, 5.01) makes his Yankee debut in this one, and it’s generally accepted pitching in the AL is tougher than the NL so I wouldn’t expect much from him looking at those numbers. He did pitch well his final two Arizona starts, however, winning both. Nick Swisher is 4-for-11 with two homers and five RBIs career off McCarthy. The Tribe lost outfielder Michael Bourn to the DL on Monday. Josh Tomlin (5-6, 4.11) starts for Cleveland. He has sandwiched a complete-game one-hitter with three starts allowing five earned runs in each. Derek Jeter is just a .182 career hitter off Tomlin.

Key trends: The Indians are 1-5 in Tomlin’s past six home starts against teams with a winning record. The over is 5-0 in Tomlin’s past five at home.

Early lean: I don’t trust either pitcher, so go over at -105.



A’s at Giants (-103, 7)

It’s the Oakland debut of Jason Hammel, the “other” piece in that Jeff Samardzija trade, but Hammel had been just as good as Shark this season. Hammel (8-5, 2.98) has been consistent of late, allowing exactly two earned runs over his past three starts. At least he gets to break in against a National League team. He hasn’t faced the Giants this year. Michael Morse is 3-for-8 with a homer off him. Matt Cain (1-7 4.27) starts for the Giants. He might have turned a corner, allowing just a combined two runs over his past two starts, although the Giants have still lost the past five times he has taken the mound. No Oakland player has faced him too much. Brandon Moss is 2-for-12 with a homer and four strikeouts.

Key trends: The Giants are 1-6 in Cain’s past seven at home against teams with a winning record. The under is 3-0-1 in his past four against Oakland. The Giants are 2-7 in Cain’s past nine against the A’s.

Early lean: I’m guessing the Giants won’t be a home dog by first pitch. Take them now while they are.



White Sox at Red Sox (+110, 8)

In my mind, the biggest all-star snub by far in either league is that White Sox lefty Chris Sale didn’t get a spot. He’s 8-1 with a 2.16 ERA that would be second in the AL if he had enough innings to qualify (Sale missed around a month on the DL). He will be qualified after pitching Wednesday. Sale is one the five AL guys on the Final Vote chosen by fans. That closes Thursday afternoon. Sale threw a complete game last time out, allowing a run to Seattle while striking out 12. Sale faced the Red Sox April 17 and held them to one hit, a solo homer by Xander Bogaerts, over seven innings while striking out 10. The Red Sox will call up Rubby De La Rosa for this start as Saturday’s doubleheader messed up their rotation a bit. De La Rosa had a 2.51 ERA in five starts for the Red Sox earlier this year. He has never faced a White Sox hitter.

Key trends: The White Sox are 2-5 in Sale’s past seven against teams with a losing record. Boston is 1-8 in its past nine against lefties. The under is 4-0 in Sale’s past four against teams with a losing record.

Early lean: Love the under here at -115.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Who’s Hot – AL Edition
By Mike Rose

The All-Star Game is just around the corner, and there are some teams which are clearly All-Star teams for MLB betting fans in our eyes.

Check out the clubs who have been increasing your bankrolls all year long in the American League.

Oakland Athletics (55-33, +$1,353) – The A’s probably had one of the best teams in baseball before they made the blockbuster move of the trading season, but now that they have RHP Jason Hammel and RHP Jeff Samardzija, they certainly have an elite team which can win the AL West and make a serious play at the World Series. Samardzija was a winner in his first start with his new team to get the club up to 28-15 at home and 22-games above .500 for the season, and he is going to really look for a big time turnaround with his won/loss record after pitching so well and getting so little help with the Chicago Cubs.

Remember too, that this is the only team in baseball averaging five runs per game to boot. For a team which plays in a ballpark that is considered one of the most pitching-friendly in the game, posting 92 home runs, seventh best in the league, is no mistake. These A’s are for real.

Baltimore Orioles (48-40, +$1,033) – We still have a hard time imagining that the Orioles have the best team in the AL East right now. They just took four straight from the Texas Rangers and two out of three at Fenway Park from the Boston Red Sox, and that has propelled them to one of the best money marks in the game.

However, it’s interesting to note that all of Baltimore’s damage has come away from Camden Yards this year. The O’s have the best road mark for bettors in the American League with a 25-19 record. It’s playing on the road that has consistently gotten the Orioles in trouble in the rough and tumble AL East over the course of the last few seasons, but with more than half of this season gone, that doesn’t seem to be an issue any longer.

The question? Does Baltimore really have the goods to go after one of the big time pitchers who could be on the trading block in the next few weeks? That could make all the difference in the world to a team with a real lack of quality at the front of the rotation.

Los Angeles Angels (51-36, +$949) – The A’s had to be looking in their rearview mirrors when they pulled the trigger on the Samardzija deal, as they know that the Halos are just 3.5-games back as we near the All-Star Break.

Whereas Baltimore has been doing it on the road, the Halos have been doing it at home. They are 30-14 at the Big A this year, and what’s amazing is the fact that three of those games have been lost because of blown saves. The Angels are quietly remaking their shoddy bullpen, and the move to bring in RHP Jason Grilli might end up being one of the most unheralded, yet important trades of the season. We know that LA can hit the ball. We just don’t know if it can close out games when it is ahead. If not for this pen, the Angels would have the best team in baseball.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baseball Crusher
Chicago White Sox -121 over Boston Red Sox
(System Record: 58-0, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 58-41

Soccer Crusher
Netherlands PK +130 over Argentina
This match is happening in FIFA
(System Record: 605-21, lost last game)
Overall Record: 605-498-86

Here are the rest of his baseball plays for today...


Baseball
Oakland Athletics -110 over SF Giants
New York Mets +114 over Atlanta Braves
Baltimore Orioles -110 overWashington Nats

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB betting cheat sheet

Tanaka Tumbles to Earth

New York Yankees hurler Masahiro Tanaka suffered his third loss in the past four games Tuesday, allowing five runs over 6 2/3 frames in a 5-3 defeat in Cleveland (+143, 7.5 O). Tanaka's value has taken a hit as a result; he was once ranked in the top-10 but now finds himself 27th ($465).

Great Scott

Lefty Scott Kazmir takes the hill Thursday as the Oakland Athletics wrap up a four-game interleague series in San Francisco. Kazmir has been lights-out at home (6-1, 1.57 ERA, 1-7 O/U) but less so away from Oakland, going 4-2 with a 3.57 ERA and a 6-3 O/U mark in nine road starts.

Pitching Notes

* Washington starter Tanner Roark would like to reverse his ugly road trend Wednesday as he leads the Nationals (+108, 9) into Baltimore. Roark is 3-2 with a 4.44 ERA and a 6-1-1 O/U record away from Nationals Park, compared to a 4-4 record, a 2.02 ERA and a 2-6-1 record at home.

* Boston Red Sox lefty Jon Lester has caught fire of late, surrendering just five earned runs over his last five starts - a span of 37 2/3 innings. Lester and the Red Sox, who are 5-0 SU and 1-4 O/U in those outings, take on the visiting Chicago White Sox on Thursday afternoon.

Hitting Notes

* Miami Marlins outfielder Marcell Ozuna continued his surprising season Tuesday, belting his 15th home run in the ninth inning of a 2-1 win over Arizona. Miami improved to 8-7 SU and 9-4-2 O/U when Ozuna goes deep entering Wednesday's game against the Diamondbacks (-125, 8.5).

* Lester may be streaking, but he'll need to be wary of veteran Paul Konerko on Thursday afternoon. The White Sox DH/first baseman is 10-for-28 lifetime versus the Red Sox ace, with three home runs and seven RBIs.

Totals Streak

Oakland Athletics (7-2-1 O/U): The only thing keeping this from being an 8-1-1 stretch for the best team in baseball is a pair of eighth-inning runs scored in Tuesday's 6-1 triumph that nudged the total just past 6.5. The Athletics are 43-43-4 O/U on the season.

Injury Notes

* Atlanta hopes to have injured catcher Evan Gattis (back) participating in bullpen sessions over the weekend. The Braves are 8-3 S/U, 5-6 O/U and a surprising +368 units in 11 games since Gattis went down with the injury.

Weather Watch

* Wind will be blowing out to left field at 9 mph Wednesday evening at Fenway Park, where the Red Sox host the White Sox. Teams combined to hit just seven home runs in six games under similar wind conditions in 2013.

Umpire Note of the Day

The home team is 10-1 in umpire Andy Fletcher's last 11 games involving Cincinnati. Fletcher will call the balls and strikes Wednesday when the Reds (-176, 7.5) host the Chicago Cubs.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

WASHINGTON at CHICAGO
Play On - Home teams (CHICAGO) after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% after 15 or more games 89-45 since 1997. ( 66.4% | 39.5 units ) 0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )

WASHINGTON at CHICAGO
Play On - Any team vs the money line (CHICAGO) revenging a road loss versus opponent, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team 82-36 since 1997. ( 69.5% | 0.0 units ) 1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.0 units )

SEATTLE at PHOENIX
Play Against - Home favorites vs. the 1rst half line (PHOENIX) off an road win where they scored 85 or more points, with a winning record on the season after 15 or more games 54-23 since 1997. ( 70.1% | 28.7 units )