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Trevor Bauer has a few big things going in his favor. For one, he’s long been in possession of what they call an electric arm. He’s been able to run his fastball up there in the mid-90s and while an electric arm doesn’t automatically bring one success, it does guarantee one several opportunities. Bauer is also intellectual and curious about his work, to an extreme extent. His willingness to try new things has gotten him into some trouble on occasion but it reflects a strong inner desire to be the best pitcher he can become. He also has no fear of giving up a run or two or being taken yard. Bauer has an excellent strikeout rate and his groundball percentage is trending strongly in the right way. He'll now face a Chicago team that will be without two key players. Adam Eaton and Alexei Ramirez were both injured yesterday, which not only hurts them offensively, it hurts the South Side defensively in a big way. Adam Eaton is among the best CF's in the game and Ramirez is their every day SS.
Then there's John Danks. With shoulder surgery now 22 months in the rear-view mirror, we'll give Danks' a mulligan for his mediocre 2013, as a sharp strikeout rate drop suggested he hadn't built back his arm strength. Has he been revived in 2014? Frankly, no he has not. Danks posted 7.6 K's/9 in May, but his strikeout totals have otherwise been subpar, leaving him more at the mercy of hit and strand %. He improved his control a bit in '13 to compensate for the lack of Ks, but that hasn't been the case this season, resulting in a putrid control rate (44 BB in 113 IP). The elevated hr/f% from '13 has corrected, but he's allowing more fly-balls, putting him at risk of another HR's allowed spike given his bandbox home park and other AL parks such as the one he'll pitch in here. Danks was perhaps a bounce back candidate entering the season, but his surgically repaired shoulder seems to have sapped his upside. His fastball usage and velocity continue to slip, as he's had to rely more on a changeup to induce swings and misses, which obviously isn't the answer. He piqued some interest with a four-win June, but none of them were impressive and none of them were pure quality outings. Danks' skills have been terrible and in his last start before the break he may look like a guy that is dead last in a marathon race but will do anything to cross the finish line. Big edge to the Indians in a very good situation.
-- The Astros are 0-12 since August 13, 2009 as a dog after a win in which they allowed 12+ hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1200 when playing against.
PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:
-- When Julio Teheran starts the Braves are 11-0 since May 20, 2013 as a favorite after his team lost by no more than five runs the last time he started for a net profit of $1070.
MLB BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Tigers are 11-0 (+$1,165) since 2009 if not more than a +150 underdog or a -230 favorite, after scoring at least eight runs per game the past five games.
CHOICE TREND:
-- The Dodgers are 0-9 since September 13, 2013 as a favorite when they are off a win in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs for a net profit of $1184 when playing against. \
ACTIVE TRENDS:
-- When Johnny Cueto starts the Reds are 14-2 since May 05, 2008 at home when their team used 5+ pitchers yesterday for a net profit of $1160.
The Pirates take on the Reds this afternoon at 1:10pm after Pittsburgh took care of business in the 11th inning to win 6-5 last night. They won’t be as lucky today with a mismatch on the mound and the home team in a better position to grab the win before the break.
The Reds have won 6 of 8 games while getting 4 or more runs in all 8 of those games. The Reds are winners of 14 out of 16 when they score 4 or more. 4 is the magic number here. Liriano is 0-4 with a 4.00ERA(3.99) against the Reds losing 4-0 in his last start against them this season. Overall Liriano is 1-6 with a 4.60 ERA while Cueto comes in for the Reds are 9-6 with a 2.03ERA but he’s 4-1 in his last 6 games. Cueto only gave up 2 runs and 6 hits in over 6 innings on Tuesday and the Reds are 4-1 when Cueto starts against the Pirates.
Liriano is in a bad spot after missing over a month on the DL. The Reds grab the early win and pack it in for the All-Star break.
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Detroit Tigers ML (-132)
Risking 2.64 units to win 2 units
2:10pm start
Verlander/Chen must start
Detroit is coming in hot and will look to sweep a 4 game series over the Royals. KC is 0-6 vs. Detroit this season while getting pummeled in a scoring differential of 49-14. Detroit is on a 5 game winning streak (7-3 in last 10) while the Royals (4-6 in 10) have been held to 2 runs in 2 games and down 3 in a row. KC has lost 9 of 12 home games and the Tigers have won 8 of 10 on the road.
Bruce Chen has to get the start for the Royals because of an injury to Jason Vargas. Chen is not the guy the Royals want on the mound but they have no choice. He’s 1-2 with 7.11 ERA and 6-9 with a 5.52 ERA in 19 starts vs. Detroit. The Royals are having a decent year but they aren’t slugging (.377 for 23rd overall) and hitting enough homers (only 55 for 30th overall) compared to the Tigers slugging at .447 (2nd overall) and hitting homers at 7thoverall with 97.
Verlander is 2-0 with a 4.32 ERA in 4 with the Tigers giving him plenty of run support. He’s 17-6 with a 3.10ERA in 32 starts over KC and should be comfortable this afternoon to get the job done. The Tigers are 7-2 in their last 9 as a favorite and you simply don’t bet against a hot team going into the break. Expect their momentum to last one more day just before the league shuts down for a few days.
On Sunday in the World Cup final the Play is on Germany. The Germans will look to become the first European team to win the World cup on South American soil here today at 4:10 eastern on ESPN. Germany best Argentina 4-0 the last time they matched up in the World Cup, Germany plays better team ball than Argentina and has won every game where they scored first. Argentina has struggled to break down the tougher defenses and gets most of their offense from Messi. The Germans will most likely bang Messi around in this game and will not be lethargic here as this is a bitter rivalry. While the game should be close, Germany should prevail as they were not tested by Brazil in their 7-1 win. Argentina won the Penalty kicks battle 4-2 over Holland and had to play extra time and has one less day of rest. Germany was our pick to win it all going into this game and we are certainly not going to shy away from theme today. The Reverse psychology has many folks on Argentina as Germany surely wont duplicate the Brazil game. However we Look for Germany to win a close game. On Sunday there are 3 Big Plays on the card. Both MLB Top plays Cashed big on Sunday. Jump on now And the End the week big with Powerful Cutting edge data you wont see Any where else. Look for Germany to win the World Cup today. GC
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