7-18-14

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Today's CFL Picks

FRIDAY, JULY 18 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST (7/15)

Game 423-424: Toronto at Ottawa (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 111.823; Ottawa 104.792 Dunkel Line: Toronto by 7; 48 Vegas Line: Toronto by 2 1/2; 52 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-2 1/2); Under

Game 425-426: Hamilton at Calgary (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Hamilton 108.052; Calgary 124.101 Dunkel Line: Calgary by 16; 53 Vegas Line: Calgary by 9; 49 Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-9); Over

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Brandon Watson

CFL Ottawa +2.5

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CFL

Week 4

Toronto (1-2) @ Ottawa (0-2)-- Home opener for RedBlacks squad that lost first two games after leading both at halftime; Ottawa was outscored 44-11 in second half of games after they'd led by 4-5 points at half. Argonauts opened with three western foes (west is 8-2 vs east so far this season); they've gained 1,013 yards in last two games, but got hammered by Calgary last week, despite outgaining Stamps by 78 yards. Ottawa has only one turnover in first two tilts; Toronto allowed 116 rushing ypg in first three games- can Ottawa run it against them?

Hamilton (0-2) @ Calgary (2-0)-- TiCats lost four in row and eight of last nine series games, as they've lost last nine visits here, last two by total of six points. Three of last four series games stayed under total. Stamps scored 31.5 ppg in winning first two games, turning ball over just one time. Both teams already had a bye; under is 2-0 in both teams' games this season, with Stampeders allowing 11.5 ppg- TiCats are scoring just 17 ppg. Western Conference teams are 8-2 vs eastern teams so far this season. TiCats (-3) turned ball over eight times already.

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Best and worst MLB bets at the All-Star break

With the All-Star Break marking the unofficial halfway point of the Major League Baseball season, it's time to take a look at the best and worst wagers of the season to date:

Best Money Team

Oakland Athletics (+$1,436)

The Athletics (59-36) have been the class of the majors so far, posting the best record in the league while fending off a hard-charging Los Angeles Angels club atop the American League West. Oakland has been elite where it matters most - ranking second in runs per game and second in ERA - and should have no trouble padding its record with a handful of games remaining against weaklings like the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros.

Worst Money Team

Texas Rangers (-$2,254)

So much for contending for the AL West; the Rangers are already looking toward next year thanks to a disastrous start marred by injuries to key players like Prince Fielder (neck), Martin Perez (elbow), Matt Harrison (back) and Jurickson Profar (shoulder). The offense has looked pedestrian - ranked 15th in runs per game - while the home-run pop is nonexistent (27th) and a team ERA of 4.94 ranks the Rangers second-last in the majors.

Best Money Starter

Alfredo Simon, Cincinnati Reds (+$1,330)

Simon hadn't started a game since 2011, but has emerged this season as one of the top pitchers in baseball. The towering right-hander is 7-2 against the moneyline as an underdog, and the Reds are a sizzling 15-3 in his 18 starts so far in 2014. Expect some regression as the increase in workload begins to wear on him, but with eight straight quality starts to his credit going into the break, that dropoff may not happen right away.

Worst Money Starter

Jake Peavy, Boston Red Sox (-$1,256)

Peavy has run hot and cold on the season, but certainly deserves better than this. The 33-year-old righty has racked up 12 quality starts, but has only one victory - an 8-1 triumph over the Toronto Blue Jays back on April 25 - to show for it. Peavy has quality starts in five of his previous six starts, but the Boston offense has managed two or fewer runs in all but one of those outings. Expect the wins to rise if and when the Red Sox offense wakes up.

Best Over Play

Miami Marlins (54-34-6 O/U)

The Marlins weren't just bad at the plate in 2013, they were downright abysmal; Miami scored a league-low 513 runs a season ago, 85 fewer than the next-closest team (Chicago White Sox). One year later, the Marlins are a completely different team on offense, going into the break ranked 12th in the majors in runs scored. Expect oddsmakers to adjust the totals accordingly in the second half, which could take some starch out of Miami's surprising O/U record.

Best Under Play

San Diego Padres (29-62-4 O/U)

Congratulations to this year's version of the Marlins - except that the Padres are actually on pace to be even worse. San Diego has scored a paltry 279 runs to date - 81 fewer than the 29th-place St. Louis Cardinals - and boast a downright putrid .214/.273/.334 slash line. Deadline trades could limit the team's run-scoring ability even further - and with oddsmakers loath to drop totals below six, expect a whole lot more Unders the rest of the way.

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Game of the Day: CFL doubleheader

Toronto Argonauts at Ottawa Redblacks (+2.5, 53)

A sold-out crowd awaits the Ottawa Redblacks’ home opener against the Toronto Argonauts on Friday. It will be the inaugural game at newly renovated TD Place Stadium, which officially opened last Wednesday. The Redblacks would like nothing more than to open their new home with their first franchise victory in what also is the first divisional game for both teams.

Toronto quarterback Ricky Ray leads the league with 982 yards and matches up well against an Ottawa defence allowing 281.5 per game. The only team allowing more passing yards than the Redblacks is the Argonauts, who also have surrendered a league-worst 10 passing touchdowns. This game could turn into a high-scoring shootout between Ray and Ottawa pivot Henry Burris - something with which the two veterans are very familiar.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, TSN

LINE HISTORY: The LV Superbook opened the Argos as 2.5-point road faves. Toronto moved to -2 before going back to -2.5. The total opened 52.5 and now sits at 53.

INJURY REPORT: Argonauts - SB Chad Owens (Out, foot).

WHAT THE CAPPERS SAY: "The Argos will be missing their three top receivers to injury and are last in the CFL in total defense allowing 424 ypg but first in the CFL in total offense producing 446 ypg. This is a great situational spot for Ottawa playing its first home game in almost nine years
There are All kinds of festivities planned as the CFL returns to the capital. Redblacks QB Henry Burris is last in the CFL in passing after leading the CFL last year with Hamilton. The Redblacks have played much better than an expansion team, especially on defense." Covers Expert Nick Parsons

ABOUT THE ARGONAUTS (1-2): Ray will be without his top target in slotback Chad Owens, who is out for three weeks with a foot injury. Toronto already is without slotback Andre Durie due to a broken clavicle, so Ray will need to lean heavily on Spencer Watt, Jason Barnes and John Chiles. Defensive back Jalil Carter is one of the few bright spots on the Argonauts defence, leading the team with 13 tackles and three sacks.

ABOUT THE REDBLACKS (0-2): Burris slowed considerably after throwing two touchdown passes in his first quarter of the season, completing fewer than 55 percent of his passes through two starts. Kierrie Johnson is the team's only receiver with more than 100 yards, while running back Chevon Walker has scored three of the team’s four touchdowns and gained 193 combined yards. Ottawa could start Jeraill McCuller on the offensive line after Burris was sacked five times in Week 3, but the team will need to find a starting spot for a Canadian player if both McCuller and Nate Menkin start.

TRENDS:

* Argonauts are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 road games.
* Over is 4-1 in Argonauts last five games in July.
* Argonauts are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six vs. East.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 58.46 percent of wagers on Covers Consensus are backing the Argos.



Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Calgary Stampeders (-9, 50)

The Hamilton Tiger-Cats are off to a rough start this season after playing in the 2013 Grey Cup Final. Their campaign doesn’t get any easier after a bye week as they visit the Calgary Stampeders on Friday. Making matters worse for the Tiger-Cats, quarterback Zach Collaros is out with an injury suffered in Week 3, meaning backup Jeremiah Masoli will make his first career start against Calgary's fearsome defence.

The Stampeders have limited opponents to 23 points in two games, recording seven sacks and allowing a league-low 71 rushing yards per contest. Calgary quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell is making the most of his opportunity as the starter, registering 580 passing yards and six touchdowns. The Tiger-Cats are limiting opponents to a league-best 200 passing yards per game, but they will have their hands full with Mitchell.

TV: 10 p.m. ET, TSN

LINE HISTORY: The LV Superbook opened the Stamps as 9.5-point home faves before moving them to -9. The total opened 49 but is up to 50.

INJURY REPORT: Ti-Cats - QB Zach Collaros (Out, head), WR Andy Fantus (Probable, head). Stampederes - RB Jon Cornish (Out, concussion), WR Maurice Price (Out, hand)

WHAT THE CAPPERS SAY: "Former Ole Miss/Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli will start at QB for Hamilton with Collaros out injured after taking 14 sacks in the first two games. Calgary's Bo Levi Mitchell is 5-0 as a starter in the CFL. The Stamps are very balanced offense, third in rushing third in passing, second overall. The Stampeder defense has allowed one touchdown all year, it came on the final play of Game 1." Covers Expert Nick Parsons

ABOUT THE TIGER-CATS (0-2): Masoli could have Andy Fantuz at his disposal if the wide receiver is fully recovered from a concussion suffered during the preseason. Hamilton traded linebacker Abraham Kromah to the Winnipeg Blue Bombers for future considerations. Linebacker Rico Murray has recorded the team’s only two interceptions.

ABOUT THE STAMPEDERS (2-0): Running back Jon Cornish was cleared to resume practicing but remains questionable for Friday. Charleston Hughes and Juwan Simpson each have recorded two sacks for a defence that has allowed only one touchdown. Wide receiver Joe West is close to returning from a quadriceps injury suffered during training camp, while Maurice Price remains out with a broken hand.

TRENDS:

* Under is 6-0 in Stampeders last six games overall.
* Tiger-Cats are 6-0 ATS in their last six Friday games.
* Under is 9-2 in Tiger-Cats last 11 games overall.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 59.81 percent of wagers on Covers Consensus are behind the Stampeders.

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Blue Jays start second half with struggling Dickey
Andrew Avery

The first half of the season was a roller coaster ride for the Toronto Blue Jays. They were a force in May and the early days of June, but struggled mightily into the All-Star Break.

The Jays are now four games back of the first-place Baltimore Orioles and kick the post All-Star schedule against the Texas Rangers.

R.A. Dickey will be on the bump for the Jays and has struggled in his own right. The Blue Jays are just 1-5 in his last six starts.

The LV Superbook opened the Jays as small -103 home faves and posted a total of 8.

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This team is streaking on the road
Stephen Campbell

The Tampa Bay Rays have been road warriors as of late, posting an 8-1 record in the last nine games away from home. Tampa faces off against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field Friday.

The Rays are presently -130 favorites with a total of eight, per BetOnline.com.

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Shields, Royals lights out on the Over on the road
Stephen Campbell

In Kansas City Royals pitcher James Shields' last nine starts on the road, the Over is a scorching hot 8-1. Shields will be on the mound for KC when they take on the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park Friday.

BetOnline.com currently lists the Sox as -122 faves with a total of 8.5.

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Indians-Tigers meetings a boon for Over bettors
Andrew Avery

The Over is cashing in for bettors when the Cleveland Indians and Detroit Tigers square off. In the last seven meetings, the Over is a perfect 7-0.

The two teams have played eight games against one another, starting with a 4-0 score resulting Under. Since then, it's been all Overs.

The two renew acquaintances Friday and the LV Superbook has slapped a total of 8.5 on the game.

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Giants struggle versus Marlins in Bumgarner's starts
Andrew Avery

The San Francisco Giants are 0-4 in pitcher Madison Bumgarner's last four starts versus the Miami Marlins. The Marlins and Giants begin a three-game series in Miami Friday.

Bumgarner's last outing versus the N.L. East club was the final meeting of the 2013 season, which the Giants lost 6-5.

The southpaw will be on the mound for the Giants in the series opener Friday. The LV Superbook has the Marlins as +118 home dogs and a total of 7.5.

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Who's Not Hot - NL
By Mike Rose

The All-Star break has come and gone, and now is the perfect time to separate the pretenders from the contenders. Today, we're breaking down the teams that have broken your bankrolls the hardest from the National League thus far in 2014 and analyzing whether we can expect a turnaround in the second half of the year or not.

Arizona Diamondbacks (40-56, -$1,532) – In this case, we tend to believe that the Diamondbacks have to get a bit better from a money standpoint. The team isn't all that talented, but there was no way that this club was really warranting being 16-games under .500 at the break. A horrid start to the season at home really put this club in a hole that it was probably destined to never get out of. However, the perception is clearly there now that Arizona is one of the lesser teams in the National League, but as we'll see here in the second, there are some other teams in the NL West who are in just as bad of shape.

Colorado Rockies (40-55, -$1,512) – Our tour through the NL West continues with a team that, once upon a time, was 22-14 and on top of the NL West with one of the best money marks in the entire league. Since that point though, the Rockies are just 18-41, have the worst money mark in baseball over the course of that stretch, and have faded completely out of sight and out of mind for bettors. The big problem has been the injuries to SS Troy Tulowitzki and OF Carlos Gonzalez. We don't remember the last time that these two were in the lineup at the same time for any real period, and what the Rockies have proven is that they really don't have any bats around these two in the order. If the team was smart, it would sell off both at the trade deadline, get as big of a hoard of minor leaguers as they can get, and start to build once again. The pitching staff just isn't there, and the offensive numbers are inflated by Coors Field and the fact that two of the best hitters in the game have carried things.

San Diego Padres (41-54, -$1,482) – Interestingly enough, all three of the worst teams in the National League for MLB betting purposes are from the same division, and no one is really even close. The Chicago Cubs are the next team in line at -$782. San Diego isn't all that talented either, and though it plays in the complete opposite ballpark of the Rockies, the fact that the pitching staff is getting destroyed by injuries is what is causing the Padres to be in this list. RHP Andrew Cashner is the highlight pitcher of five starters that are currently on the DL for the Padres. When you've got a team which is averaging 2.94 runs per game and is batting .214, you'd better have a great pitching staff. The Padres have the fourth best ERA in baseball, but that just hasn't been good enough.

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CFL Betting Notes - Week 4
By David Schwab


The run from worst to first for both Winnipeg and Edmonton continued into Week 3 of the new CFL regular season. The Blue Bombers outlasted Montreal last Friday 34-33 as three-point road underdogs to remain perfect on the year at 3-0 both straight-up and against the spread. The total in that game went OVER the closing 48½-point line. The Eskimos improved to 3-0 SU with a 27-11 victory over Ottawa in Friday’s other game as five-point home favorites. That total stayed UNDER the 53-point line.

This past Saturday’s double-header started with Calgary running all over Toronto 34-15 as a two-point favorite on the road. The total stayed UNDER a closing betting line of 55 points in that contest. Week 3 closed things out with British Columbia snapping a two-game skid with a 26-13 victory over defending Grey Cup Champion Saskatchewan as a five-point underdog on the road. The total in this game also stayed UNDER with the closing line set at 51½ points.

Friday, July 18

Toronto Argonauts (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. Ottawa RedBlacks (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS)

Point-Spread: Toronto -2½
Total: 52½

Game Overview

It has been a tale of two teams when it comes to the defending East Division Champs with a solid 33-point victory over Saskatchewan in Week 2 wrapped around losses to Winnipeg and Calgary by a combined 43 points. Argonauts’ quarterback Ricky Ray leads the CFL in passing yards with 982 while completing an impressive 75.7 percent of his throws, but he is having a hard time keep pace with a Toronto defense that is allowing an average of 31.3 points a game. The league’s newest franchise has looked like an expansion team in its first two games, but that was to be expected. Longtime CFL veteran quarterback Henry Burris struggled against the Eskimos last week with 134 yards passing and no scores while completing just 52 percent of his throws. The RedBlacks have averaged 19.5 points in their first two games.

Betting Trends

With no head-to-head Betting Trends in this matchup, bettors may look at Toronto’s 13-4-1 record ATS in its last 18 road games as a key trend for Friday’s game. The total has gone OVER in five of the Argonauts last seven road games and it has gone OVER in seven of their last 10 games following a SU loss.

Hamilton Tiger-Cats (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. Calgary Stampeders (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS)

Point-Spread: Calgary – 9½
Total: 49

Game Overview

The Tiger-Cats enjoyed a much needed bye last week with the CFL’s new nine-team rotation after losing their first two games of the season SU. They did look much better in a tight four-point loss to Edmonton in Week 2 as opposed to 31-10 loss to Saskatchewan in their opener as 3½-point road underdogs. Quarterback Zach Collaros has been ruled out for this game with a lingering head injury.

Calgary could be the best balanced team in the CFL so far with an offense that has scored 63 points in two games complementing a defense that allowed a combined total of just 23 points to its opponents. Bo Levi Mitchell continues to look impressive as the Stampeders’ starting quarterback after lighting-up Toronto’s secondary for 267 yards passing and four touchdown throws in Week 3. Running back Jon Cornish remains questionable with a head injury as well.

Betting Trends

The Stampeders have won the last four meetings SU, but the series is tied at 2-2 ATS. The home team in this inter-division matchup is 7-3 SU in the last 10 meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in three of the last four games.

Saturday, July 19

Montreal Alouettes (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. British Columbia Lions (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)

Point-Spread: BC -5½
Total: 47½

Game Overview

Montreal is still looking for some better consistency on both sides of the ball after a 1-2 start that includes a lopsided loss to Calgary on opening day followed by a solid 15-point victory over BC in Week 2 as a three-point home underdog. The Alouettes racked-up 203 yards on the ground in that win against the Lions.

The Lions are another team searching for an early identity, but they have to be encouraged with last week’s victory. Kevin Glenn played his best game of the season with 170 yards passing and one touchdown throw while Andrew Harris had a big day on the ground with 138 yards rushing and a touchdown on 18 carries.

Betting Trends

Montreal has failed to cover the spread in 22 of the last 29 meetings and it is a costly 3-13 ATS in the last 16 games played in BC. The total in this matchup has stayed UNDER in four of the last five games at BC Place.

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GC: MLB Power Angle Play

T.G.I.F Back from the All Star Break with the 17-0 A.L. Game of the Month from a system that wins by 4 runs per game, there is also a Double System Dominator side and a Totals Play that is perfect since 2004 and averages 12 runs per game. Free Plays on an 11-2 run. Free MLB Play below.

On Friday the free MLB Power Angle Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals. Game 960 at 8:15 eastern. The Cardinals are back from the break and taking on the LA. Dodgers here. The Cardinals have been hot and gaining ground in the N.L. Central. Tonight they take on a Dodger team that has lost 30 of the last 42 here in the series in St. Louis. The Cardinals lost on Sunday after taking the first few in Milwaukee. That loss sets them up in one of their more desirable rolls as they are 14-0 at home off a road loss. Lance Lynn is on the mound tonight and he has won 6 of his last 8 home starts allowing 4 runs in his last 27 innings here. Lynn is 6-1 in his 7 career home July starts and makes his first home starts vs A Doges team he has won 3 of 5 vs all in LA. The Dodgers counter with D. Haren who is 1-7 on the road in July and has allowed 16 earned runs in his last 20 innings over his last 4 starts in that role. Haren has lost 5 of his last 7 road starts overall. Look for the Cardinals to take the opener. On Friday their is a Tremendous 3 game Back from the Break card up with the A.L. Game of the from a killer 17-0 Blowout system that wins by an average 4 runs per game leading the way. here is also a Powerful Perfect totals system that averages 12 run per game and a Big 5* Double system Dominator on the card. MLB Picks up where it left off. Jump on now and put these cutting edge League wide power systems on your side. For the free MLB Play take the St. Louis Cardinals. GC

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River City Sharps

We start with a play in the Bronx as Mike Leake (7-7, 3.54) and the Cincinnati Reds travel to New York to face David Phelps (3-4, 3.94) and the Yankees. The Reds ended the first half playing really well and find themselves just 1.5 games back of NL Central-leading Milwaukee. Phelps had a bit of a rough start this season for the Yankees but has been really solid over his last six starts, posting a 2-0 record with a 3.13 ERA. A couple of things we really like about the home team here tonight...The Yanks are 8-2 in Phelps last 10 starts as a favorite and an impressive 39-17 in their last 56 games vs. the NL Central. The Reds are 8-21 in their last 29 interleague games as the doggie, so we're siding with the short priced home favorite here tonight. The Sharps say...

3 UNITS - NEW YORK YANKEES (-110)